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Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy
Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy
This paper studies the impact of the US-China tariff war on China, using high-frequency night lights data and grid-level measures of tariff exposure. Exploiting within-grid variation over time and controlling extensively for grid-specific contemporaneous trends, we find that each one-percentage-point increase in exposure to the US tariffs was associated with a 0.59% reduction in night-time luminosity. This impact was highly skewed across locations: Grids with negligible direct exposure to the US tariffs accounted for 70% of China’s population. But the tail 2.5% of China’s population with the highest exposure saw an implied 2.52% (1.62%) decrease in income per capita (employment) relative to unaffected grids. These effects were moreover concentrated in locations with a high commuting openness. By contrast, we do not find significant effects from China’s retaliatory tariffs, and offer evidence of several channels through which the impact on imported inputs was mitigated. In a parallel analysis at the prefecture level, we confirm that the US tariffs had discernible negative aggregate consequences.

Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory
Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory
Using firm-level earnings forecasts and managerial guidance data, we construct guidance surprises for analysts, i.e., differences between managerial guidance and analysts' initial forecasts. We document new evidence on expectation formation: (i) analysts overreact to managerial guidance and the overreaction is state-dependent, i.e., it is stronger for negative guidance surprises but weaker for surprises that are larger in size; and (ii) forecast revisions are neither symmetric in guidance surprises nor monotonic. We organize these facts with a model where analysts are uncertain about the quality of managerial guidance. We show that a reasonable degree of ambiguity aversion is necessary to account for the documented heterogeneous overreaction pattern.

Sharing Food Can Backfire: When Healthy Choices for Children Lead Parents to Make Unhealthy Choices for Themselves
Sharing Food Can Backfire: When Healthy Choices for Children Lead Parents to Make Unhealthy Choices for Themselves
Many consumers are caregivers and, as part of caregiving, frequently make food choices for their dependents. This research examines how food choices made for children influence the healthiness of parents’ subsequent self-choices. Whereas prior work focuses on choices for the self (others) as based on self-needs (other-needs), the authors theorize when and why self-choices involve consideration of other-needs. Five studies, including a nursery school field study, test the effect of choosing healthy food for a child on the healthiness of parents’ self-choices, focusing on the role of anticipating potentially sharing self-choices with one's child. Potential sharing increased parents’ likelihood of making an unhealthy subsequent self-choice if they first made a healthy choice for their child. This effect was driven by parents’ present-focused parenting concerns about whether one's child would eat and enjoy healthy options chosen for them. This effect was mitigated when parents instead had future-focused parenting concerns. Additionally, this effect was mitigated after making an initial choice for the child that was (1) unhealthy or (2) healthy but relatively liked by the child. This research contributes to understanding how choices for others shape choices for the self and offers important marketing and policy implications.

Casting a Light on Dark Venues
Casting a Light on Dark Venues
Increased trading in dark venues around earnings announcements offers advantages to businesses and markets that can allay regulators’ concerns
How to Predict Popularity
How to Predict Popularity
If the many functions of digital social media networks could be summed up in one word, it would likely be “sharing”. Through a myriad of apps and platforms, we share our thoughts, feelings, opinions, ideas, and more – with our friends and family, with our online social circles, with strangers, and even with companies.
Carry trade by Trucks
Carry trade by Trucks
New research shows that traders can bypass capital controls by transporting goods across borders by truck to reap currency carry rewards. We look at how they do it and what the consequences are
Learning to Coordinate in Firms’ Behaviours  – Dr. Jasmine Yu HAO
Learning to Coordinate in Firms’ Behaviours – Dr. Jasmine Yu HAO
While computer languages may sound alien to economics, I aim to showcase that good programming skills are conducive not limited to economic research, it can also open up endless career possibilities for you in the business world.

To Imagine the Future of Digital Currencies – Dr. Yang YOU
To Imagine the Future of Digital Currencies – Dr. Yang YOU
As a teacher, I will push myself to understand the expectations of local employers' and the market dynamics of Hong Kong.

From Quantum Physics to Quantitative Marketing – Dr. Chu (Ivy) Dang
From Quantum Physics to Quantitative Marketing – Dr. Chu (Ivy) Dang
As a science person, I am impressed by our students' strong business acumen. But as a teacher, other than teaching them how to use quantitative tools to make scientific claims, I also hope that I can encourage them to continue to stay inquisitive about the world and apply their classroom knowledge for the betterment of the society.

Exploring the New Directions to Boost Hong Kong’s Tourism
Exploring the New Directions to Boost Hong Kong’s Tourism
Before the pandemic, Hong Kong's tourist attractions were bustling with visitors. Post-pandemic, while many local residents flock north for holidays, there are not many tourists coming to Hong Kong. In 2024 Q1, the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong was 11.23 million, only 60% of the same period in 2019. What can the tourism industry do to draw visitors back?
Will the Cross-border Consumption Trend Hollow Out Hong Kong’s Economy?
Will the Cross-border Consumption Trend Hollow Out Hong Kong’s Economy?
The norm of ‘going north’ distresses local businesses. Yet, the author believes limited long-term impact on Hong Kong's economy. The development of local service industry actually is more correlated with the city's ability to grow its future economy and sustain long-term global competitiveness.
The 2-Percent Inflation Target and US Inflation
The 2-Percent Inflation Target and US Inflation
When will rate-hiking cycle end? The US Federal Reserve has just announced that it will keep the current interest rate unchanged, which has been at a 23-year high for the sixth straight meeting. An interest rate cut is expected to occur later than originally anticipated. What determines whether interest rates are raised or lowered? The goal of the Fed’s monetary policy is commonly known as the dual mandate - pursuing maximum employment while maintaining price stability. This is mainly achieved through controlling inflation.
Exploring the New Directions to Boost Hong Kong’s Tourism
Exploring the New Directions to Boost Hong Kong’s Tourism
香港旅遊業發展有何新方  
Will the Cross-border Consumption Trend Hollow Out Hong Kong’s Economy?
Will the Cross-border Consumption Trend Hollow Out Hong Kong’s Economy?
The norm of ‘going north’ distresses local businesses. Yet, the author believes limited long-term impact on Hong Kong's economy. The development of local service industry actually is more correlated with the city's ability to grow its future economy and sustain long-term global competitiveness.
The Transformation of China’s Industrial Policy: Fortifying National Resilience
The Transformation of China’s Industrial Policy: Fortifying National Resilience
Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School, acknowledges this long-standing shift, stating, "This has been going on for at least about 8-10 years," referring to an industrial policy factoring in "war preparation."