學術論文
研究焦點
全球學者
知識轉移
明德商論
龍虎山下
媒體報導
Logic-based updating
Logic-based updating
We build on AGM belief revision (Alchourrón et al. (1985)) and propose a class of updating rules called pragmatic rules. Pragmatic updating applies to multiple priors and requires that the agent's posteriors be the subset of her priors under which the realized event occurs with probability 1, if such priors exist. We construct a propositional language based on qualitative probability and demonstrate the strong relation between belief updating rules and belief revision rules in this language. We show that an updating rule is consistent with AGM belief revision if and only if it is pragmatic. While maximum likelihood updating is pragmatic in general, full-Bayesian updating is not. We characterize maximum likelihood updating within the AGM framework, and show that full-Bayesian updating can be obtained by dropping one of AGM's postulates.

Learning from a black box
Learning from a black box
We introduce a learning model in which the decision maker does not know how recommendations are generated, called the contraction rule. We present behavioral postulates that characterize it. The contraction rule can be uniquely identified and reveals how the decision maker interprets and how much she trusts the recommendation. In a dynamic stationary setting, we show that the contraction rule is not dominated by completely following recommendations and is incompatible with a property called compliance with balanced recommendations. Following this negative result, we demonstrate that the contraction rule may generate and reinforce recency bias and disagreement.

Growing user base in the early stage of sharing economy platforms: An integration of competitive repertoire and institutional legitimacy theories
Growing user base in the early stage of sharing economy platforms: An integration of competitive repertoire and institutional legitimacy theories
Sharing economy platforms are pressed to rapidly grow user bases at the early stage by aggressively targeting potential users through competitive actions. Due to the volatile nature of the sharing economy and its disruption to industry norms, these platforms encounter legitimacy challenges that impede user base growth. This paper integrates competitive repertoire and institutional legitimacy theories to develop a research model that explains early-stage user base development in the sharing economy. We posit that the early-stage user base is associated with structural characteristics of the competitive repertoire, whose effects are moderated by a platform's socio-political legitimation efforts that address stakeholders’ regulatory and normative concerns. Using a comprehensive sample of 4644 monthly observations of 129 sharing economy platforms in China, we find that the volume of two context-specific competitive actions, offering economic incentives and staging high-visibility events, along with competitive repertoire complexity, are positively related to the platform's early-stage user base. We also identify a significant negative relationship between repertoire differentiation and user base. Direct relationships are moderated by socio-political legitimation, however, such that legitimation weakens the positive impact of context-specific action volume but enhances those of repertoire complexity and differentiation. Managerial and practical implications are discussed in light of the findings.

Corporate Lobbying of Bureaucrats
Corporate Lobbying of Bureaucrats
Executive agencies play a pivotal role in shaping the regulatory environment by crafting rules, enforcing regulations, and overseeing government contracts—all of which can have a profound impact on businesses. For firms, this potential impact creates a clear incentive for firms to influence these agencies, particularly during the critical stages of rulemaking and enforcement. In this context, lobbying emerges as a key tool that companies use to mold the regulatory landscape to their advantage. Unlike politicians, whose decisions are often swayed by electoral cycles and campaign contributions, agency officials are not elected, serve longer terms, and are less susceptible to direct political pressures. As a result, engaging in lobbying efforts with executive agencies is both more complicated and strategically crucial for firms operating within heavily regulated industries. However, the dynamics of such lobbying remain underexplored in the literature.
春節幸福感和疫情感知風險調查:來自機器學習的洞察
春節幸福感和疫情感知風險調查:來自機器學習的洞察
2023年剛結束的兔年春節內地民眾過得怎樣?調查顯示,兔年春節期間,民眾的幸福感平均值為5.47,介於“比較開心”與“開心”之間(1為最低值,7為最高值),“比較開心”以上人群占比為83.1%。
How to Recover from Work Stress, According to Science
How to Recover from Work Stress, According to Science
To combat stress and burnout, employers are increasingly offering benefits like virtual mental health support, spontaneous days or even weeks off, meeting-free days, and flexible work scheduling. Despite these efforts and the increasing number of employees buying into the importance of wellness, the effort is lost if you don’t actually recover. So, if you feel like you’re burning out, what works when it comes to recovering from stress? The authors discuss the “recovery paradox” — that when our bodies and minds need to recover and reset the most, we’re the least likely and able to do something about it — and present five research-backed strategies for recovering from stress at work.

研究企業之間的協調行為 – 郝宇博士
研究企業之間的協調行為 – 郝宇博士
計算機編程聽起來好像和經濟風馬牛不相及,但擁有出色的編程技術,不但能幫助個人進行經濟學學術研究,更能助你在商界捉緊更多就業機會。

疫況愈下 「清零」何價?
疫況愈下 「清零」何價?
香港在連續數月「清零」後,在社區出現Omicron變種病毒個案,爆發第五波疫情,特區政府因而重新推出表列處所須關閉等社交距離防疫措施,並取消多項大型活動。
構想虛擬貨幣的未來 – 游楊博士
構想虛擬貨幣的未來 – 游楊博士
作為教師,在鼓勵同學努力學習之餘,我亦會主動了解本地市場運作以及邀請僱主來到課堂分享業界經驗。

破解拼車盈利難題:綠色出行背後的網路效應與策略選擇
破解拼車盈利難題:綠色出行背後的網路效應與策略選擇
随着科技和网络发展,拼车服务势必向自动化及智能化方向迈进。笔者透过研究不同定价模式和匹配机制,为网约车平台建议提升拼车盈利的策略。
禿鷲、狼與人的故事:衡量生物多樣性的經濟價值
禿鷲、狼與人的故事:衡量生物多樣性的經濟價值
禿鷲與人類死亡率:在印度,當禿鷲消失後,其棲息地的生態迅速惡化,不僅導致更多地表水被致病菌污染,野狗和老鼠數量亦大幅增長。禿鷲的功能性滅絕導致每年印度新增十萬例死亡,每年經濟損失高達近700億美元。
從人工視窗到智慧問答:大語言模型與RAG技術重塑政務服務
從人工視窗到智慧問答:大語言模型與RAG技術重塑政務服務
近年,類似於ChatGPT的大語言模型(Large Language Model,LLM)在全球迅速普及,展示出巨大的應用潛力。 通過海量數據的訓練,這些模型能夠生成連貫且語義合理的文本,並具有卓越的問答能力。 在政務服務領域,公眾一般通過政府官網、移動應用查詢政策法規、辦事流程等資訊,或者前往政務服務大廳求助。 傳統的政務服務主要依賴人工視窗服務和電話諮詢,服務效率和回應速度往往受到限制,尤其是在遇到複雜問題或需要長時間排隊等待時,公眾滿意度往往較低。 隨著技術的發展,特別是大語言模型的出現,政務服務逐漸邁進智慧化、自動化。 結合大語言模型的對話式諮詢服務更為高效,能顯著提升公眾體驗。
財赤當務急   發債雙刃劍
財赤當務急 發債雙刃劍
2024–2025年度首8個月的赤字為1,432億元(已包括發行債券收入);羅兵咸永道估算全年赤字為948億元,而財政儲備將下降至6,398億元,相當於約10個月政府開支,屬有記錄以來最低水平,最高峰曾達28個月水平。若公共財政繼續入不敷支,並無措施出台扭轉趨勢,估算未來4年赤字亦將居高不下。政府必須盡快全面檢討支出,同時在管理財政及其對公眾的影響之間小心取得平衡。
院線大戰客廳沙發:香港戲院如何扳回一局
院線大戰客廳沙發:香港戲院如何扳回一局
從新冠肺炎疫情至今,香港電影院經歷了一波關門大潮。截至2024年4月30日,累計16間戲院結業,其中包括UA連鎖影院在2021年3月全線結業。這波關門大潮似乎還遠未結束,上月12日MCL Cinema Plus+荷里活廣場戲院宣布結業,而以播放小眾電影知名的高先電影院,也傳出將於租約期滿後結束營業。
特朗普2.0啟幕
特朗普2.0啟幕
特朗普即將再次上任美國總統,特朗普2.0時代即將開始。 特朗普2.0計劃包括減稅、減少貿易逆差及限制移民。特朗普希望延續低稅率,並在「2025計劃」中提出新的稅率結構,卻可能加劇收入不均。陸炎輝博士指出,特朗普的減稅政策雖能刺激經濟,但也將增加國債,並可能影響社會福利支出,進一步挑戰政府運作。
破解拼車盈利難題:綠色出行背後的網路效應與策略選擇
破解拼車盈利難題:綠色出行背後的網路效應與策略選擇
随着科技和网络发展,拼车服务势必向自动化及智能化方向迈进。笔者透过研究不同定价模式和匹配机制,为网约车平台建议提升拼车盈利的策略。
財赤當務急   發債雙刃劍
財赤當務急 發債雙刃劍
2024–2025年度首8個月的赤字為1,432億元(已包括發行債券收入);羅兵咸永道估算全年赤字為948億元,而財政儲備將下降至6,398億元,相當於約10個月政府開支,屬有記錄以來最低水平,最高峰曾達28個月水平。若公共財政繼續入不敷支,並無措施出台扭轉趨勢,估算未來4年赤字亦將居高不下。政府必須盡快全面檢討支出,同時在管理財政及其對公眾的影響之間小心取得平衡。
港大倡政府參與MPF改善回報 借鑑星洲設保障收益 兼可緩解財赤
本港強積金(MPF)回報備受打工仔關注,港大經管學院金融學副教授太明珠表示,MPF存在「高收費、低回報」問題,現時香港MPF體系為自由市場,若港府能夠更積極參與,或有助成員獲得更佳的投資回報,此亦是新加坡等地的做法。 存在高收費低回報問題 學院提出兩種可考慮的方案供社會討論,一是由政府自行提供非牟利