Seven Indicators Forecast Great Challenges for Hong Kong’s Economy

Dr Chi-pui Ho and Dr Cynthia Cao

21 August 2024

In my previous article in this column last month, I point out from the start that utilizing economic time series, clear diagrams and tables, coupled with relevant theories, is conducive to providing a full picture of local economic development (see 【Note】). In this article, I will analyse the overall performance in the following seven categories: logistics and transport, gross domestic product (GDP), prices, labour market, industrial sectors, demographic structure, and economic outlook indicators. Future challenges in each category will be presented, with data illustrated by charts.

Falling container throughput and surging land transport

With its strategic location, deep natural harbour, and well-established container transport facilities, Hong Kong has developed into one of the busiest ports in the world and a major entrepot in Asia. At the turn of the 21st century, the “front shop, back plant” model boosted transhipments from the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone through Hong Kong to overseas markets, spurring the growth of its container throughput. Since the 2010s, however, significant development of Mainland ports has reduced the need for transhipment of goods through Hong Kong to Mainland cities, thus gradually decreasing its sea freight throughput (see Figure D1).

In terms of air traffic, Hong Kong boasts wide-ranging geographical advantages. Coupled with an expansive air transport network and a premier international airport, these factors have enabled it to become a primary air freight hub in the region. Leveraging the “front shop, back plant” model of the neighbouring Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, the city’s air freight throughput has recorded an upward trend. That said, in recent years, facing competition from airports (particularly those in the Mainland), Hong Kong International Airport must enhance operational efficiency, optimize cargo facilities, and adopt state-of-the-art technologies, and strengthen connectivity in order to maintain its status as a dominant aviation hub.

As for passenger traffic, Hong Kong, being an international metropolis, relies heavily on air travel to connect with the rest of the world. The importance of this is reflected in the remarkable growth over the years. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, air passenger volume has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.

Surrounded by water on three sides, Hong Kong has a widespread maritime network that facilitates connections with nearby regions. This has historically expedited the increase in cross-border waterborne transport in the past, especially at the Hong Kong-Macau Ferry Terminal. Since the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge in 2018, Hong Kong has registered a slowdown in cross-border sea passenger throughput, which has remained at low levels after the pandemic.

Land infrastructures such as the Shenzhen Bay Bridge, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail link, and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge have facilitated land links between Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland. The number of cross-border passengers has continued to rise since the beginning of this century and has quickly rebounded after the coronavirus pandemic.

Stable economic growth and low inflation

Productivity, a robust labour force, and a business-friendly environment have sustained the long-term growth of GDP per capita For decades (see Figure E1A), placing Hong Kong among the cities with the highest living standards worldwide. Since 1997, Hong Kong’s GDP per capita has climbed by an average of around 2% each year. Similarly, private consumption as well as imports and exports have shown comparable growth trends.

Under the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the greenback and has benefited from the prudent US monetary policy. Consequently, Hong Kong’s inflation rate has remained low and stable. Since 2010, the overall Consumer Price Index has expanded by an average of 0.2% on a monthly basis. Expenses on housing, food, transport, water, and electricity are the main contributors to the overall Consumer Price Index (see Figure F1A).

Since the 1980s, the focus of Hong Kong’s economic development has shifted from manufacturing to finance, logistics, and professional services, spelling the downward spiral of various traditional industries. The local labour market now demands a more educated workforce with new skills.

Thanks to economic stability in the 2010s, unemployment and underemployment remained at 3% to 4% and 1% to 2% respectively while population ageing led to a decline in labour force participation rate (see Figure G1B). The rise in wages has been lower than the economic growth in Hong Kong. From 1999 to the present, the real wage indices and the real payroll indices have risen by only around 30% whereas the real GDP has soared by around 100%.

In light of the above trends, Hong Kong needs to find solutions to the labour shortage caused by an ageing population and the income inequality resulting from stagnant wage growth. A series of labour welfare-related issues will also pose immense challenges to the labour market.

Plummeting share of the tourism industry

The four pillar industries of Hong Kong are financial services, tourism, trading and logistics, as well as professional and producer services. Professional and producer services encompasses a wide range of industries, including law, accounting, information technology, advertising, engineering, architectural design, and surveying services.

Since the 2010s, financial services has played a steadily important role in terms of contributions to GDP. In contrast, the significance of trade and logistics has experienced a downward trend. Severely disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic, tourism’s share of GDP has plunged from 5% pre-pandemic to less than 1% in recent years (see Figure H3A).

As for other sectors, the cultural and creative industries have shown exciting development, maintaining a share of GDP at around 5%. Medical services, education services, innovation and technology, testing and certification services, environmental industries, air transport, as well as sports and related activities have each seen their share of GDP hovering below 5%.

The local population continues to rise steadily and has now reached over 7.5 million. As an international financial centre, Hong Kong has been attracting talent from all over the world to work and live here.

Hong Kong prides itself on being one of the global cities with the highest average life expectancy. With ever-improving healthcare services and standards of living, the average life expectancy of Hongkongers is 85 years. Owing to a declining birth rate and higher life expectancy, the local population has been speedily ageing (see Figure I1). On the other hand, Hong Kong’s overall education level has been progressively rising.

Regarding marriage and divorce rates, with changes in social norms, expanded educational and employment opportunities for women, and a rise in the age at first marriage, marriage rates have shown a declining trend since the 1970s. In comparison, divorce rates have accelerated, indicating a change in attitudes toward and acceptance of divorce in society. Meanwhile, as a result of the upward cost of living, work pressure, changing family expectations, etc., Hong Kong’s birth rate has markedly declined from 3.5 children per woman in the 1970s to 0.75 children per woman in 2023, far below the replacement level.

Business indices signal caution

When it comes to future economic growth, large institutions regularly release an array of indicators for different sectors to reference, including the following five that track Hong Kong’s economic development.

The “Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey”, conducted by the Hong Kong SAR Government’s Census and Statistics Department, presents the business confidence and expectations of companies in various sectors. Positive signs indicate overall bright prospects while negative signs indicate overall bleak prospects.

The Census and Statistics Department also publishes the “Report on Monthly Survey on the Business Situation of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises”, which presents diffusion indices on business receipts of these enterprises by comparing their expectations of their business situation in the coming month with the current situation. A reading above 50 indicates that the business condition is generally favourable while a reading below 50 reflects the opposite.

The “Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index” is undertaken independently by the Hong Kong Productivity Council. As a composite index to gauge the performance of SMEs in Hong Kong, its calculations are based on different economic indicators with a weighted average. These indicators encompass retail sales value, industrial production index, and export volume.

An upward trend in the composite index indicates improving economic performance of SMEs. In contrast, a falling trend suggests that their economic performance is under pressure, pointing to an economic downturn or a business environment facing unfavourable factors.

The “Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s Export Index” assesses the sentiments and expectations among Hong Kong exporters. When the index is higher than 50, it reflects an overall optimistic outlook on exports. Conversely, when it is lower than 50, it indicates an overall pessimistic outlook.

The “S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index of Hong Kong”, based on surveys of purchasing managers across various industries, reflects economic performance through new orders, employment, and output. When the index is higher than 50, it indicates expanding economic activity. When it is lower than 50, it indicates economic contraction.

All in all, in recent years, companies across various industries in Hong Kong have been cautious about the business environment and export outlook. This highlights the multiple geopolitical challenges ahead, the changing consumption patterns of Mainland tourists, and the mounting competition from neighbouring regions.

【Note】: Ho, Chi-pui, “Analysing Hong Kong’s Property Market with Data”, 17 July 2024; “Analysing Hong Kong’s Financial and Tourism Markets with Data”, 18 July 2024; Hong Kong Economic Journal

Seven Indicators Forecast Great Challenges for Hong Kong’s Economy

Dr Chi-pui Ho and Dr Cynthia Cao

21 August 2024

In my previous article in this column last month, I point out from the start that utilizing economic time series, clear diagrams and tables, coupled with relevant theories, is conducive to providing a full picture of local economic development (see 【Note】). In this article, I will analyse the overall performance in the following seven categories: logistics and transport, gross domestic product (GDP), prices, labour market, industrial sectors, demographic structure, and economic outlook indicators. Future challenges in each category will be presented, with data illustrated by charts.

Falling container throughput and surging land transport

With its strategic location, deep natural harbour, and well-established container transport facilities, Hong Kong has developed into one of the busiest ports in the world and a major entrepot in Asia. At the turn of the 21st century, the “front shop, back plant” model boosted transhipments from the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone through Hong Kong to overseas markets, spurring the growth of its container throughput. Since the 2010s, however, significant development of Mainland ports has reduced the need for transhipment of goods through Hong Kong to Mainland cities, thus gradually decreasing its sea freight throughput (see Figure D1).

In terms of air traffic, Hong Kong boasts wide-ranging geographical advantages. Coupled with an expansive air transport network and a premier international airport, these factors have enabled it to become a primary air freight hub in the region. Leveraging the “front shop, back plant” model of the neighbouring Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, the city’s air freight throughput has recorded an upward trend. That said, in recent years, facing competition from airports (particularly those in the Mainland), Hong Kong International Airport must enhance operational efficiency, optimize cargo facilities, and adopt state-of-the-art technologies, and strengthen connectivity in order to maintain its status as a dominant aviation hub.

As for passenger traffic, Hong Kong, being an international metropolis, relies heavily on air travel to connect with the rest of the world. The importance of this is reflected in the remarkable growth over the years. However, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, air passenger volume has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.

Surrounded by water on three sides, Hong Kong has a widespread maritime network that facilitates connections with nearby regions. This has historically expedited the increase in cross-border waterborne transport in the past, especially at the Hong Kong-Macau Ferry Terminal. Since the opening of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge in 2018, Hong Kong has registered a slowdown in cross-border sea passenger throughput, which has remained at low levels after the pandemic.

Land infrastructures such as the Shenzhen Bay Bridge, the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail link, and the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge have facilitated land links between Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland. The number of cross-border passengers has continued to rise since the beginning of this century and has quickly rebounded after the coronavirus pandemic.

Stable economic growth and low inflation

Productivity, a robust labour force, and a business-friendly environment have sustained the long-term growth of GDP per capita For decades (see Figure E1A), placing Hong Kong among the cities with the highest living standards worldwide. Since 1997, Hong Kong’s GDP per capita has climbed by an average of around 2% each year. Similarly, private consumption as well as imports and exports have shown comparable growth trends.

Under the linked exchange rate system, the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the greenback and has benefited from the prudent US monetary policy. Consequently, Hong Kong’s inflation rate has remained low and stable. Since 2010, the overall Consumer Price Index has expanded by an average of 0.2% on a monthly basis. Expenses on housing, food, transport, water, and electricity are the main contributors to the overall Consumer Price Index (see Figure F1A).

Since the 1980s, the focus of Hong Kong’s economic development has shifted from manufacturing to finance, logistics, and professional services, spelling the downward spiral of various traditional industries. The local labour market now demands a more educated workforce with new skills.

Thanks to economic stability in the 2010s, unemployment and underemployment remained at 3% to 4% and 1% to 2% respectively while population ageing led to a decline in labour force participation rate (see Figure G1B). The rise in wages has been lower than the economic growth in Hong Kong. From 1999 to the present, the real wage indices and the real payroll indices have risen by only around 30% whereas the real GDP has soared by around 100%.

In light of the above trends, Hong Kong needs to find solutions to the labour shortage caused by an ageing population and the income inequality resulting from stagnant wage growth. A series of labour welfare-related issues will also pose immense challenges to the labour market.

Plummeting share of the tourism industry

The four pillar industries of Hong Kong are financial services, tourism, trading and logistics, as well as professional and producer services. Professional and producer services encompasses a wide range of industries, including law, accounting, information technology, advertising, engineering, architectural design, and surveying services.

Since the 2010s, financial services has played a steadily important role in terms of contributions to GDP. In contrast, the significance of trade and logistics has experienced a downward trend. Severely disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic, tourism’s share of GDP has plunged from 5% pre-pandemic to less than 1% in recent years (see Figure H3A).

As for other sectors, the cultural and creative industries have shown exciting development, maintaining a share of GDP at around 5%. Medical services, education services, innovation and technology, testing and certification services, environmental industries, air transport, as well as sports and related activities have each seen their share of GDP hovering below 5%.

The local population continues to rise steadily and has now reached over 7.5 million. As an international financial centre, Hong Kong has been attracting talent from all over the world to work and live here.

Hong Kong prides itself on being one of the global cities with the highest average life expectancy. With ever-improving healthcare services and standards of living, the average life expectancy of Hongkongers is 85 years. Owing to a declining birth rate and higher life expectancy, the local population has been speedily ageing (see Figure I1). On the other hand, Hong Kong’s overall education level has been progressively rising.

Regarding marriage and divorce rates, with changes in social norms, expanded educational and employment opportunities for women, and a rise in the age at first marriage, marriage rates have shown a declining trend since the 1970s. In comparison, divorce rates have accelerated, indicating a change in attitudes toward and acceptance of divorce in society. Meanwhile, as a result of the upward cost of living, work pressure, changing family expectations, etc., Hong Kong’s birth rate has markedly declined from 3.5 children per woman in the 1970s to 0.75 children per woman in 2023, far below the replacement level.

Business indices signal caution

When it comes to future economic growth, large institutions regularly release an array of indicators for different sectors to reference, including the following five that track Hong Kong’s economic development.

The “Report on Quarterly Business Tendency Survey”, conducted by the Hong Kong SAR Government’s Census and Statistics Department, presents the business confidence and expectations of companies in various sectors. Positive signs indicate overall bright prospects while negative signs indicate overall bleak prospects.

The Census and Statistics Department also publishes the “Report on Monthly Survey on the Business Situation of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises”, which presents diffusion indices on business receipts of these enterprises by comparing their expectations of their business situation in the coming month with the current situation. A reading above 50 indicates that the business condition is generally favourable while a reading below 50 reflects the opposite.

The “Standard Chartered Hong Kong SME Leading Business Index” is undertaken independently by the Hong Kong Productivity Council. As a composite index to gauge the performance of SMEs in Hong Kong, its calculations are based on different economic indicators with a weighted average. These indicators encompass retail sales value, industrial production index, and export volume.

An upward trend in the composite index indicates improving economic performance of SMEs. In contrast, a falling trend suggests that their economic performance is under pressure, pointing to an economic downturn or a business environment facing unfavourable factors.

The “Hong Kong Trade Development Council’s Export Index” assesses the sentiments and expectations among Hong Kong exporters. When the index is higher than 50, it reflects an overall optimistic outlook on exports. Conversely, when it is lower than 50, it indicates an overall pessimistic outlook.

The “S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index of Hong Kong”, based on surveys of purchasing managers across various industries, reflects economic performance through new orders, employment, and output. When the index is higher than 50, it indicates expanding economic activity. When it is lower than 50, it indicates economic contraction.

All in all, in recent years, companies across various industries in Hong Kong have been cautious about the business environment and export outlook. This highlights the multiple geopolitical challenges ahead, the changing consumption patterns of Mainland tourists, and the mounting competition from neighbouring regions.

【Note】: Ho, Chi-pui, “Analysing Hong Kong’s Property Market with Data”, 17 July 2024; “Analysing Hong Kong’s Financial and Tourism Markets with Data”, 18 July 2024; Hong Kong Economic Journal

教育回報倒掛 上大學還值得嗎

過去一個月，內地高考、香港中學文憑考試相繼放榜，時至今日，塵埃逐漸落定。考生何去何從，不僅影響眾多家庭的生活節奏，亦是社會經濟狀況的晴雨表。今年的一個鮮明特點就是，短期市場回報率成為考生擇校的主導因素。

社會上對此現象反應不一，貶之者認為急功近利，褒之者則謂識時務者為俊傑。或貶或褒，毋庸置疑的是，中國社會面臨一個嚴峻的社會現象：教育上的高投入並沒有帶來高回報，高學歷者反而就業難。這種教育投資與回報率不相稱的新現象引出了一個問題：上大學還值得嗎？

擇校不求陽春白雪

本地「大學聯合招生辦法」於上周三公布遴選結果。不出意外，醫科、商科、金融這類實用課程仍是優秀考生的不二之選。中文大學（中大）稱，全港前百名中學文憑考試尖子之中，近半選讀該校醫科。

今屆10名公開試狀元中，8人被香港大學（港大）和中大的醫學院錄取，另外兩人分別入讀港大和科技大學的環球商業管理課程。

內地的情況則有所不同，由於經濟大勢仍處於調整期，加上國家的調控和輿論引導，財經金融類課程的受歡迎程度急劇下降，內地名校的商學院已不再是各地高考狀元的首選。尖子生的去向大致兵分兩路，一是傳統的數理化基礎學科，二是電腦、人工智能和數據科學等當時得令的科技課程。

對於普通學生而言，修讀出路好的課程比入讀名校的吸引力更大。以深圳為例，不僅南方科技大學、哈爾濱工業大學深圳分校這類科技強校受到高分考生的青睞，連深圳技術大學、深圳職業技術大學等以前名不見經傳的院校，其電腦、資訊工程、自動化課程也成為大熱門，收生要求更高於一些傳統名校。在江蘇、浙江等經濟發達的省份，高分學生選擇就讀職業學校的例子比比皆是。內地一家主流招聘網站最新發布的調查報告表明，在受訪的大學生中，超過一半認為回到職業學校學習技能，可以拓闊畢業後求職之路。

投資與產出失調

考生放棄興趣與理想，淡化長期的職業生涯規劃，而選擇短期容易就業的實用課程，固然折射出當下經濟的不確定性，也反映出中國教育產業投入高卻出路窄的問題。港大本月初公布的畢業生就業調查報告顯示，撇除暫緩就業或不願就業的學生，2023年學士學位畢業生就業率高達98.8％，平均月薪接近3.2萬元，較前一年上升3.4％。同期，其他各大學也表現良好，畢業生就業率均逾70％，難怪不少人把港校列為性價比最高的梯隊。

相比之下，內地研究型大學畢業生的就業形勢頗為嚴峻。不僅一般高等院校學生找工作困難，即使最頂尖的大學畢業生也不見得容易；更不尋常的是，就業難度與教育程度成反比。根據智聯招聘今年3、4月的問卷調研，內地「雙一流」（世界一流大學和一流學科建設）大學畢業生的就業率最高，但也只有57％。碩士、博士畢業生的就業率僅44.4％，本科生雖略高，亦不過45.4％，大專生的就業率反而高達56.6％。

這種學歷愈高就業愈難的現象，主因是中國教育產業在過去20年擴張過度。一些短、平、快的實用課程勉強提升到研究院水平，一旦就業需求下降，普通院校的碩士、博士畢業生便會被勞動力市場邊緣化。在家庭層面，則是投入產出的極度失當。在中國，孩子學歷每上一個台階，父母都要作出巨大犧牲。當前出現教育回報倒掛的現象，許多家庭在教育投資一環便要重新考量。

人力資本價值難定

教育回報率的估算是勞動經濟學的一個經典問題。在美國，經濟學家幾十年的估算表明，在第二次世界大戰後一段很長時間，每人的學校教育年期每增加1 年，其收入平均增長7％至8％，亦即相當於美國股票市場的平均年收益率。因此，一些專家把美國二戰後經濟高速發展的黃金30年歸功於金融資本和人力資本的雙高回報。

至於中國，由於缺乏具有全民代表性的樣本，對教育回報率的估算莫衷一是，有高達30%至40％，有低至2%至4％。這種差異除了是數據偏差外，另外有兩個主要原因。一是地域之間差異大，從東部沿海城市的樣本與西部內陸地區的樣本，所得結果一定是迥然相異。二是經濟結構變化極快，10年前的高教育回報未必能在10年後維持下去。

儘管中國家庭仍然重視教育，未來人力資本的市場價值卻充滿隱憂。由改革開放而引發的產業分工，給全國帶來了巨大的人口紅利。水漲船高，人口紅利帶動教育紅利的增長。隨着人口紅利逐漸消散，教育紅利也就沒那麼顯著了。另一方面，中國經濟發展不均加劇，社會流動性減弱，凡此種種都會抑制教育回報。未來10年，對教育衝擊最大的因素，相信是人工智能技術的廣泛使用，相關變革將給教育回報帶來極大的不確定性。

面對大學生就業困難，一些人認為中國的高等教育應該大量扶植以就業為導向的職業大學。目前中國高技能人才約5000多萬人，佔技能人才比例大概28％。從市場需求來看，通過職業大學培養高技能人才確實有相當大的空間；以普通家庭而言，入讀職業大學也不失為降本增效的好方法。但是，把職業大學當作高等教育的落腳點未免有失偏頗。

大學適度逆市操作

社會對人才的需求無疑十分多元化，對複合型人才的需求遠遠大於單一技能型的人才，前者只有在綜合性大學才能夠較好地培養出來。中國如果要走上知識型經濟的道路，必須依靠大批有學識、富創意的高質素人才，而不是單純的高技能人才。再者，日後技術發展對單一性的技能型人才可能出現很強的替代效應，對綜合性人才則有互補關係。

歸根究柢，大學不應完全跟着市場走，而理應前瞻性地發展，甚至適度地採取與市場逆向的操作。正如剛在上周辭世的諾貝爾物理學獎得主李政道先生曾在北京一個學術會議上發表的演講，標題正是：「沒有今日的基礎科學，就沒有明日的科技應用」。

因此，研究型大學可以對基礎學科和某些相對冷門的課程提供額外資助，吸引傑出學生就讀。香港的高等學府不受內地勞動力市場直接影響，在這方面別具優勢。這也是港校擴大影響、回饋社會的策略性方式。

吳延暉教授
港大經管學院經濟學、管理及商業策略副教授

（本文同時於二零二四年八月十四日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

Dr Maurice Tse and Mr Clive Ho

28 August 2024

In this day and age, when social media is all the rage and artificial intelligence (AI) along with digital transformation are advancing in leaps and bounds, the rampant production and dissemination of information can influence personal behaviour and investment decisions. The phenomenon may also potentially incite panic in society and the market, giving rise to a credibility crisis. In January 2024, the World Economic Forum declared misinformation and disinformation as the greatest short-term risks worldwide.

How can inaccurate information and deceiving information be so alarmingly destructive? The answer lies in the fact that, when deployed with conspiracy theories, such information can come across as fully credible, leaving the general public completely at its mercy. With the world being constantly flooded with information that is hard to verify, political polarization becoming increasingly prevalent, and the global economic downturn showing no sign of abating, rumours and conjectures abound. These range from conspiracy theories about currency wars to allegations that the US moon landing was faked.

The steep price of hocus-pocus

Time is of utmost importance in financial investment. Even within the infinitesimal span of a few milliseconds, a single news update or social media post can trigger price fluctuations in the market. In 2019, Roberto Cavazos, a professor at the University of Baltimore’s School of Business in the US, and the cybersecurity company CHEQ jointly published a research report (see 【Note 1】). The publication drew attention to the fact that every year, stock market losses resulting from fake news amount to US$39 billion. Investors’ decisions influenced by misinformation sustain losses of around US$17 billion on an annual basis (see Figure).

For companies targeted by disinformation attacks, their annual expenditure on reputation management reaches approximately US$9.54 billion. Their annual expenditure on addressing false information in the healthcare sector is around US$9 billion, with the greatest costs incurred in measures to combat fake news about the anti-vaccine campaign and climate change. Global losses induced by disinformation amount to a total of US$78.2 billion.

Financial losses for many in pump and dump schemes

It is widely known that political election campaigns are not immune to disinformation. Research shows that approximately US$300 million is spent annually on phoney political ads. During the 2020 US presidential election, at least US$200 million was spent on fake news. As also indicated by researchers, their estimates only illustrate the basic direct costs. The real underlying costs far exceed the estimated figures.

Of the journalists surveyed in a report released by the US Pew Research Centre in 2022, 26% of the respondents indicate that they have unknowingly reported news containing disinformation. In their opinion, identifying disinformation is more and more challenging, especially as the advancement of AI technology facilitates the spread of false information. According to a 2023 survey conducted by the insurance company Nationwide, 34% of American non-retiree investors aged between 18 and 54 have been influenced to make investments based on misleading financial information (e.g. pump and dump schemes) found on the internet or social media. Not only have investors suffered losses but the market’s credibility has also been undermined as a result.

As mentioned in the research study by Arcuri et al. published in the Journal of Economics and Business in 2023 (see 【Note 2】), some investors might be unable to agree on the true value of a company due to their failure to distinguish between real and fake news. Consequently, the target company’s stock price dances to the tune of disinformation. The study analyses fake news originating from overseas but released in America and Europe from 2007 to 2019. In terms of stock returns, the findings demonstrate that unfavourable fake news generates substantial short-term negative impacts while favourable or neutral news has minimal impacts.

Conspiracy theories bleeding into economics

What is even worse, under the echo-chamber effect of social media, all sorts of unverifiable conspiracy theories have gained wide currency and approval. One notable example is the allegation that the government of an economic power has been tampering with its GDP, inflation, and employment figures to window-dress the domestic economy. As a matter of fact, this absurd way of thinking does not hold water because such large-scale economic data require rigorous statistical methods, involving input from countless independent statisticians and scholars.

All statistical reports must be meticulously reviewed by economists and analysts from around the world, making it virtually impossible to conceal any major frauds. Should investors fall for such conspiracy theories and make irrational decisions, e.g. hoarding commodities or abandoning the stock market altogether, the long-term growth of their investment portfolios could be compromised.

Furthermore, there are also conspiracy theorists who claim that the central bank of another economic power is harbouring a secret agenda to benefit a few at the expense of the majority by manipulating interest rates and the monetary policy. This rumour is nothing but ridiculous. Under strict supervision, the central bank’s operations are extremely transparent, with all its comprehensive reports and meeting minutes made public. Allegations of the so-called secret agenda are not only utterly groundless but simply do not square with the accountability mechanisms in place. If investors are misled into bypassing traditional investment channels or making rash decisions, national financial stability and growth could be jeopardized.

Despite the fact that allegations of insider trading and stock market manipulation are also common, security trading regulators in leading markets are generally dedicated to combating these irregularities. Given the immense scope and complexity of the stock market, it is extremely unlikely that a small number of individuals could control it systematically. While factors influencing market dynamics are many, including economic data, business performance, and geopolitical risks, investors misled by disinformation could lose their faith in the market or even withdraw from investment activities. They may, therefore, miss wealth-creation opportunities in the stock market, particularly those for long-term asset gains.

There is yet another group of conspiracy theorists known as the “gold bugs”. They claim that with the imminent collapse of the traditional fiat currencies (for instance, the US dollar) and the emergence of economic recession or hyperinflation, gold is the only safe-haven asset.

They also believe that central banks and national governments attempt to suppress gold prices through manipulation in order to prevent the general public from abandoning traditional currencies. Although gold is indeed an asset with intrinsic value, it is by no means immune to market fluctuations, nor is it likely to offer the kind of stable returns produced by diversified investments.

This group of conspiracy theorists obviously overlook the reality that gold prices are shaped by a basket of factors, ranging from supply and demand to investor sentiments and the macroeconomic environment. The view that governments suppress gold prices is not only baseless but also dismissive of the transparency of the gold market and the extent to which the market is regulated. Investors misled by this conspiracy theory may become exceedingly reliant on gold. Failing to diversify their investments will only increase their investment risks and limit their potential returns.

Setting the record straight to safeguard against losses  

So long as social media or other platforms keep being the fertile ground for churning out distorted information and the general public continue to have knee-jerk reactions to news, the global economy will remain susceptible to constant risks of deception. By taking advantage of potential panic, conspiracy theorists undermine ordinary people’s logical reasoning and analytical abilities, leaving them as sitting ducks for brainwashing and outrageous rumours. Hence, whenever we come across sensational articles attempting to manipulate readers’ emotions with expressions such as “hot off the press”, “breaking news”, “going viral”, or other similar clickbait headlines, we should be ultra-alert and beware of malicious disinformation.

As the saying goes, “Lies repeated a thousand times will become truth.” That is why critical thinking starts with us. Before forwarding a message, we should ensure the source is reliable, the content is reasonable or objective, and the views are based on facts or science. These basic criteria can help us to sort out signal from noise. Not only can investors benefit from this, but the impact of heavy losses incurred by disinformation on the world’s economy can also be mitigated.

【Note 1】: Cavazos, R., and CHEQ. 2019. “The Economic Cost of Bad Actors on the Internet: Fake News in 2019”.
【Note 2】: Arcuri, M.C., Gandolfi, G., and Russo, T. May-June 2023. “Does fake news impact stock returns? Evidence from US and EU stock markets”. Journal of Economics and Business vol.125-126.

Prof. Yanhui WU
Professor in Economics
Professor in Management and Strategy

企業怎應對氣候變化和自然災害風險

隨着全球溫度變暖，極端炎熱的天氣日益嚴重，乾旱、山火等自然災害發生頻率愈來愈高。同時，溫度上升加劇水的蒸發，導致極端降雨以及颱風更加常見，氣候變化所導致的自然災害不斷增多。

根據中國國家應急管理部資料，2023年全年中國大約有9500萬人受到不同程度的自然災害影響，直接經濟損失超過3000億元人民幣。與過去5年的均值相比，房屋倒塌數量上升將近一倍，直接經濟損失上升13%。今年上半年，中國的洪澇災害和山泥傾瀉事故頻發，超過300人因災死亡或失蹤，緊急轉移安置達85.6萬人次。

極端天氣事件日益頻繁，不僅為人民生活帶來深重苦難和嚴重影響，亦為各行各業帶來了前所未有的挑戰。最近，筆者的研究團隊對中國所有上市公司以及其所有子公司的氣候災害風險進行評估，並研究了各種極端天氣（包括極端高溫、極端低溫、颱風、洪水、乾旱）如何影響這些企業的績效。

資產回報率下降

通過分析約4000家非金融上市公司和這些公司擁有的超過14萬家子公司近20年的資料，我們發現氣候災害對中國上市公司的負面影響很大。根據我們估算，中國每年因各種氣候災害導致企業平均資產回報率（ROA）降低了大約0.62個百分點，而中國企業的ROA在過去20年的均值大約是4.7%。

僅極端高溫每年就會令中國上市企業的ROA降低大約0.37個百分點。我們的研究估計，如果全國各地極端高溫天氣（日平均氣溫超過攝氏32度）增加10天，上市企業的ROA便會降低1.38個百分點。在此研究基礎上，我們還構建了「中國上市公司氣候相關風險指數」來衡量企業受到氣候災害的影響。

須預防供應斷鏈

這些極端氣候災害具體是怎樣影響企業的績效？眾所皆知的是，某些極端災害，例如洪水和颱風等，能夠直接導致生產中斷和設備損壞，從而影響企業的生產能力。在這些災害特別嚴重時，甚至可能導致供應鏈中斷，影響企業的生產計劃。我們的研究進一步發現，即使是那些不具有毀壞基礎設施能力的極端氣候風險，例如極端高溫和低溫，也會顯著影響企業的生產率。這主要是因為在極端溫度下，設備維修成本和應急措施成本都會提高；與此同時，員工的工作效率也會因為工作環境的不適而顯著降低。

此外，很多行業的收入是非常依賴於適合的自然條件。例如，在氣候惡劣時，人們外出需求減少，零售業和服務業的業績都會降低。最後，資本市場也更關注極端氣候災害對企業的影響。在那些自然災害頻發的地區，投資者因擔憂企業前景，從而影響企業在資本市場的表現，並導致其股價波動及融資成本上升等問題。

面對如此巨大的氣候災害成本，企業如何應對？企業如何能綜合提高其應對極端氣候災害的能力，以及降低各種氣候風險的影響？筆者認為，企業應該從氣候風險評估和管理、基礎設施建設、極端天氣監測預警、氣候保險和綠色生產等多方面着手。

首先，企業應該充分評估氣候變化和極端天氣對其生產和業務帶來的影響，以便制定應對預案。具體來說，企業需要綜合分析極端天氣可能對生產、供應鏈、員工生產率、設備營運效率、營收等方面帶來的負面影響，並制定相應對策。例如，採用多元化的供應商體系可以降低供應鏈中斷的風險，確保在面臨極端天氣時能夠及時調整生產計劃，減少損失。

其次，企業應該加強其基礎設施韌性，提高抗風險能力。例如，企業可對建築物、排水設施、應急供電等設施進行加固和升級，確保在極端天氣事件發生時能夠迅速恢復生產。此外，企業在新建工廠或分支機構時，其所在地理位置的氣候相關風險，也應該成為選址時的重要考量。

第三，企業的風險管理部門應該把極端天氣監測和預警納入工作範疇。企業的風險管理部門應該關注氣候變化和極端天氣的動態資訊，加強氣象預警服務，及時採取應對措施，以降低災害對企業的影響。與此同時，企業還需建立應急回應機制，加強與政府、行業協會，以及研究機構的合作，不斷總結應對氣候變化和極端天氣的經驗，調整和完善應對策略，確保企業在未來遇到氣候災害時能夠有效降低損失。

氣候保險減損失

第四，氣候保險也是企業應對氣候變化和極端天氣的重要手段。購買氣候保險可以為企業提供經濟保障，減輕相關損失。例如，市場已有多種保險產品覆蓋極端氣候災害對農業企業的影響。對工業企業而言，產業中斷保險、物業保險等都是其抵禦氣候風險災害的重要保險產品。

最後，除了努力適應氣候變化外，企業也應該以積極行動減緩氣候變化。例如，若有更多企業能在生產過程中推廣環保技術和採用能源效益較高的生產方式，以降低溫室氣體排放，我們將來面對的氣候風險災害將會顯著減少。同時，企業可加強內部培訓，提高管理層和員工對氣候變化和極端天氣的認識，培養綠色生產的意識。

企業也應該積極參與應對氣候變化的行動，與政府、社區、研究機構共同努力，推動減緩氣候變化的工作。這些行動，不僅有助於提高企業自身應對氣候風險時的能力，也會顯著提升其ESG表現，從而更受資本市場的青睞。

何國俊教授
港大經管學院經濟學教授、香港大學賽馬會環球企業可持續發展研究所所長

（本文同時於二零二四年八月七日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

企業怎應對氣候變化和自然災害風險

隨着全球溫度變暖，極端炎熱的天氣日益嚴重，乾旱、山火等自然災害發生頻率愈來愈高。同時，溫度上升加劇水的蒸發，導致極端降雨以及颱風更加常見，氣候變化所導致的自然災害不斷增多。

根據中國國家應急管理部資料，2023年全年中國大約有9500萬人受到不同程度的自然災害影響，直接經濟損失超過3000億元人民幣。與過去5年的均值相比，房屋倒塌數量上升將近一倍，直接經濟損失上升13%。今年上半年，中國的洪澇災害和山泥傾瀉事故頻發，超過300人因災死亡或失蹤，緊急轉移安置達85.6萬人次。

極端天氣事件日益頻繁，不僅為人民生活帶來深重苦難和嚴重影響，亦為各行各業帶來了前所未有的挑戰。最近，筆者的研究團隊對中國所有上市公司以及其所有子公司的氣候災害風險進行評估，並研究了各種極端天氣（包括極端高溫、極端低溫、颱風、洪水、乾旱）如何影響這些企業的績效。

資產回報率下降

通過分析約4000家非金融上市公司和這些公司擁有的超過14萬家子公司近20年的資料，我們發現氣候災害對中國上市公司的負面影響很大。根據我們估算，中國每年因各種氣候災害導致企業平均資產回報率（ROA）降低了大約0.62個百分點，而中國企業的ROA在過去20年的均值大約是4.7%。

僅極端高溫每年就會令中國上市企業的ROA降低大約0.37個百分點。我們的研究估計，如果全國各地極端高溫天氣（日平均氣溫超過攝氏32度）增加10天，上市企業的ROA便會降低1.38個百分點。在此研究基礎上，我們還構建了「中國上市公司氣候相關風險指數」來衡量企業受到氣候災害的影響。

須預防供應斷鏈

這些極端氣候災害具體是怎樣影響企業的績效？眾所皆知的是，某些極端災害，例如洪水和颱風等，能夠直接導致生產中斷和設備損壞，從而影響企業的生產能力。在這些災害特別嚴重時，甚至可能導致供應鏈中斷，影響企業的生產計劃。我們的研究進一步發現，即使是那些不具有毀壞基礎設施能力的極端氣候風險，例如極端高溫和低溫，也會顯著影響企業的生產率。這主要是因為在極端溫度下，設備維修成本和應急措施成本都會提高；與此同時，員工的工作效率也會因為工作環境的不適而顯著降低。

此外，很多行業的收入是非常依賴於適合的自然條件。例如，在氣候惡劣時，人們外出需求減少，零售業和服務業的業績都會降低。最後，資本市場也更關注極端氣候災害對企業的影響。在那些自然災害頻發的地區，投資者因擔憂企業前景，從而影響企業在資本市場的表現，並導致其股價波動及融資成本上升等問題。

面對如此巨大的氣候災害成本，企業如何應對？企業如何能綜合提高其應對極端氣候災害的能力，以及降低各種氣候風險的影響？筆者認為，企業應該從氣候風險評估和管理、基礎設施建設、極端天氣監測預警、氣候保險和綠色生產等多方面着手。

首先，企業應該充分評估氣候變化和極端天氣對其生產和業務帶來的影響，以便制定應對預案。具體來說，企業需要綜合分析極端天氣可能對生產、供應鏈、員工生產率、設備營運效率、營收等方面帶來的負面影響，並制定相應對策。例如，採用多元化的供應商體系可以降低供應鏈中斷的風險，確保在面臨極端天氣時能夠及時調整生產計劃，減少損失。

其次，企業應該加強其基礎設施韌性，提高抗風險能力。例如，企業可對建築物、排水設施、應急供電等設施進行加固和升級，確保在極端天氣事件發生時能夠迅速恢復生產。此外，企業在新建工廠或分支機構時，其所在地理位置的氣候相關風險，也應該成為選址時的重要考量。

第三，企業的風險管理部門應該把極端天氣監測和預警納入工作範疇。企業的風險管理部門應該關注氣候變化和極端天氣的動態資訊，加強氣象預警服務，及時採取應對措施，以降低災害對企業的影響。與此同時，企業還需建立應急回應機制，加強與政府、行業協會，以及研究機構的合作，不斷總結應對氣候變化和極端天氣的經驗，調整和完善應對策略，確保企業在未來遇到氣候災害時能夠有效降低損失。

氣候保險減損失

第四，氣候保險也是企業應對氣候變化和極端天氣的重要手段。購買氣候保險可以為企業提供經濟保障，減輕相關損失。例如，市場已有多種保險產品覆蓋極端氣候災害對農業企業的影響。對工業企業而言，產業中斷保險、物業保險等都是其抵禦氣候風險災害的重要保險產品。

最後，除了努力適應氣候變化外，企業也應該以積極行動減緩氣候變化。例如，若有更多企業能在生產過程中推廣環保技術和採用能源效益較高的生產方式，以降低溫室氣體排放，我們將來面對的氣候風險災害將會顯著減少。同時，企業可加強內部培訓，提高管理層和員工對氣候變化和極端天氣的認識，培養綠色生產的意識。

企業也應該積極參與應對氣候變化的行動，與政府、社區、研究機構共同努力，推動減緩氣候變化的工作。這些行動，不僅有助於提高企業自身應對氣候風險時的能力，也會顯著提升其ESG表現，從而更受資本市場的青睞。

何國俊教授
港大經管學院經濟學教授、香港大學賽馬會環球企業可持續發展研究所所長

（本文同時於二零二四年八月七日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

國際可持續公共採購的實踐與展望

在2002年8月的可持續發展世界首腦會議上，可持續公共採購（Sustainable Public Procurement）概念首度被提出。此後，這一概念逐漸成為可持續生產和消費領域的關注焦點，並被納入公共採購制度的嶄新政策方向和推動全球可持續發展的重要實踐範疇。聯合國環境規劃署和聯合國經濟與社會事務部更將之視為馬拉喀什全球氣候行動夥伴關係（Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action）的關鍵一環。

何謂可持續公共採購？這是一種將環境、社會和經濟效益互相結合的採購策略，旨在通過政府採購活動促進可持續發展。傳統的公共採購主要集中在成本、品質和滿足需求，而可持續公共採購在此基礎之上，更強調環境、社會和經濟效益的平衡，使公營部門可以有效支援可持續發展目標，推動環境保護、社會福利和經濟增長。

在亞洲，日本於1992年率先推出《環保採購法例》，規定所有政府部門必須每年提交相關基本方針、預算和事項。每個採購決策都應建立在明確的數據標準上，以便提供客觀指標，可見日本對可持續採購非常嚴謹和重視。

市民的認同和支持，足令推行環保政策事半功倍。日本政府每年進行公眾諮詢，以便適當調整採購項目。例如當局曾經採購超過4萬個滅火筒，其中99.1%符合官方標準：滅火筒的液體至少40%符合再造物料成份的標準，經過完善的收集和處理流程，同時使用再造塑膠。採購完成後，政府會持續監管，透過追蹤每年符合標準的滅火筒數量，以檢討成效。通過這場大規模的環保公共採購，符合當局要求的滅火筒在本國市場佔比從2006年的46%上升至2013年的67.3%。

歐盟同樣是較早期就施行可持續公共採購，在2001至2010年期間，先後頒布了各項法例來完善制度，並給予成員國足夠靈活性，以致大部分成員國在2012年已經制定了相關條例和國家計劃。過半數成員國已落實可持續採購，當中德國、荷蘭和芬蘭表現最為積極。歐盟亦會以相關條例規範成員國實踐可持續採購。

在採購過程中，歐盟十分重視產品生命周期理念和分析方式，鼓勵廠家公開有關資訊。計算產品生命周期成本，有助於政府在兼顧環境和經濟效益的同時，避免只着眼於價格，而忽視生態效益顯著但初始成本較高的綠色產品或服務。

許多歐盟成員國政府部門都能成功運用產品或服務生命周期成本的概念。以德國漢堡為例，該市的環境部門決定以一個節能燈泡取代兩個普通燈泡的比例，替換所有燈泡。這一措施每年可減少45吉瓦時電力消耗，相當於減少2700噸二氧化碳排放。若每千瓦時電費節省5歐分，這個替換方案就可為漢堡節省22.5萬歐羅的電費開支。

可持續公共採購不僅帶來可量化的實際改變，也能對各個產業鏈產生潛移默化的影響。例如，希臘政府與7個地方政府聯合採購再生紙，再生紙的採購成本因而下降：每包500張紙的售價由2.9歐羅下降至2.34歐羅，減幅約為20%，進而帶動綠色市場的發展。因此，供應商不僅減少了有關開支，同時也提升了產品品質。從源頭推廣綠色產品，足以改變消費趨勢。減少廢物排放，自然也有利於社會環境和生態保護。

內地與香港的實踐經驗

中國政府近年致力於加大綠色低碳產品採購力度，並從建築業着手，提升全民的環保意識。鑑於目前全國建築全過程碳排放超過50億噸，佔碳排放總量一半，而材料的碳排放量尤甚。有見於此，財政部、住房和城鄉建設部、工業和信息化部於2022推出《關於擴大政府採購支持綠色建材促進建築品質提升政策實施範圍的通知》，在包括北京等48個市轄區實施政府採購政策，支持使用綠色建材，以促進建築品質。綠色建材具有節能、減排、安全、便利和可循環再用的優點，足以大幅減低建築時的自然能源消耗及其對生態環境的影響。各城市可先由部分項目開始施行，累計一定經驗後逐步擴大範圍，目標於2025年落實全國政府採購工程項目政策。

香港亦以促進環境保護和可持續發展為目標，積極推廣綠色採購，鼓勵在工務工程項目上使用可循環再造及環保材料。基於綠色材料成本可能高於傳統材料，政府要求各部門評估，並且替企業承擔因使用綠色材料而導致的額外成本，通過經濟誘因鼓勵企業予以採用。

在監管方面，特區政府訂定在工務工程項目中使用綠色材料的政策和指導原則，為採購流程提供了清晰的框架，並設跨部門工作小組，負責監督綠色規格的採用、審查常用產品和服務的採購，以及推廣綠色材料在工務工程項目中的使用。除此之外，當局採用了試用、早期實施階段和全面實施優先使用的3階段流程，確保新回收和其他綠色材料在技術上和在市場上的可行度。這一系列舉措不僅有利於減少廢物產生，還能推動企業採取更環保的生產和營運方式，從而提升其環境、社會及管治的表現。

企業作為政府可持續採購的供應商和合作夥伴，扮演着至關重要的角色。放眼未來，可持續公共採購可以使企業不斷推動綠色產品和服務的創新，以滿足政府部門在採購過程中對環保、節能、社會責任等方面的要求。這將惠及企業的競爭力，並為實現可持續發展目標作出貢獻。

為了滿足可持續採購的要求，企業將更加關注綠色供應鏈管理，確保其產品和服務在整個生命周期中盡量減少對環境和社會的影響。這包括對原材料、生產過程、運輸、銷售和回收等環節的全面考慮，以降低資源消耗和污染排放。隨着可持續公共採購理念的普及和政策推廣，企業將有機會拓展新的市場領域，包括綠色建築、節能交通和可再生能源等，既為企業帶來蓬勃商機，亦促進社會可持續發展，締造雙贏局面。

章逸飛博士
港大經管學院經濟學高級講師

江梓茵女士
港大經管學院本科生

葉梓淇女士
港大經管學院本科生

（本文同時於二零二四年八月一日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

投資無疆界 規管新安排

一般市民也許並不為意，香港正進入第三代互聯網（Web 3.0）時代。特區政府近年積極推動Web 3.0發展，而數碼港今年5月宣布在「數碼港投資者網絡」之下成立「Web 3.0投資圈」，以促進相關投資項目。此等與時並進的新猷有賴於網絡安全和對消費者、投資者的保障。

Web 3.0的來臨會為市民的生活和投資方式帶來什麼改變？虛擬資產市場是全球金融城市必爭之地，香港憑藉其國際金融中心的地位，自能在市場上佔一席位，而特區政府在扶植業界發展之餘，則必須制定一套量體裁衣的監管架構。

虛擬投資的陷阱

虛擬資產是Web 3.0生態圈的重要板塊。近年虛擬資產騙案不時出現，警務處反詐騙協調中心2023年12月的數據顯示，以數量排名依次為投資騙案、求職騙案及電話騙案，當中投資騙案升幅較為顯著【表】。

虛擬資產市場一再發生大規模詐騙事件，難免令部分投資者對新經濟產生戒心。去年一場JPEX金融大案，瞬間加深港人對虛擬資產投資的認識，證券及期貨事務監察委員會因而定期公布虛擬資產交易平台的可疑名單，以及正在申請牌照的服務提供者名單。

新興金融的優勢

在傳統金融市場上，投資活動依賴人際互動。由於擔心競爭對手或會模仿，公司有權拒絕披露其交易模式的細節，形成資訊不對稱（Asymmetric Information）。現代金融市場高效運作，極為複雜，因此有必要在投資關係中加入契約信任（Contractual Trust），意即一方相信另一方會履行合約義務。契約使投資者能準確地評估風險和回報，有助於各方評估風險，包括受託人的潛在收益和損失。

科技日新月異，亦為金融界帶來翻天覆地的改變。去中心化金融（Decentralized Finance，簡稱DeFi）屬新興金融技術，不必依賴傳統金融中介機構，而能提供金融服務，為傳統金融體系提供更具成本效益、更安全的替代方案。DeFi複製了許多傳統金融服務，包括交易所、借貸、保險和資產管理，但不受制於中央機構。再者，DeFi的信任機制建基於智能合約，是區塊鏈上一組制定協議的程式碼，從而降低成本和人為錯誤的可能性，可彌補傳統金融制度的不足。

盛夏突轉寒冬

基於預期回報率高及投資的靈活性，DeFi在2020至2021年是加密資產中增長最快的領域。這段期間被稱為「DeFi盛夏」（DeFi Summer），DeFi產品和服務的市值從2020年6月的45億美元激增到2021年11月的1665億美元，創下歷史新高。同時，與DeFi協議連結的加密資產錢包總數，從約20萬個增至約500萬個【註1】。

然而，隨着主要加密資產服務提供商先後倒閉，暴露了散戶如何輕易地被一些不合邏輯的高回報所吸引，而加密貨幣的極高匿名性質亦易被不法之徒利用，市場脆弱的一面逐漸浮現，投資情緒隨之轉為負面，於是迎來「加密寒冬」（Crypto Winter）。

加密資產價格從2021年底的高峰下跌，幅度高達75%，而DeFi的市值到2022年底下跌至320億美元【圖】。然而，DeFi仍是加密資產生態系統中的一個小分支；截至2024年3月，DeFi市場市值為1137億美元，僅佔加密資產總市值（2.73萬億美元）的4.1%。

DeFi先天不足與潛在風險

顯而易見，DeFi市場欠缺保障投資者的周全措施。DeFi和加密資產市場發展迅速，加上無分國界，監管流於分散。DeFi的特點是可從借貸和交易平台獲得高槓桿【註2】，藉此在投入一定的初始資金後，購買更多資產；但當債務最終需要減少，由於投資虧損或抵押品貶值，投資者就會被迫拋售資產，對價格造成進一步的下行壓力，以致2022年DeFi市值下跌時，投資者損失慘重。

與此同時，區塊鏈的無國界性也衍生了合規和合法性問題，各司法管轄區在DeFi市場的立法和執法方面缺乏凝聚力。由於DeFi和加密資產市場具全球性，DeFi實體、參與者和活動往往跨越多個管轄區，監管標準也就鬆緊不一；不合規的營運商和服務提供者得以鑽空子，遷往監管薄弱或毫無監管的國家，而金融監管機構亦難以收集相關訊息，大大窒礙對投資者的保障。

加密資產欠缺統一定義和分類標準，令各國金融監管機構在分析和鑑定各種加密資產產品的真偽時挑戰重重。由於智能合約不可篡改，智能合約程式碼中一旦存在錯誤或漏洞，後果就不堪設想。金融智能合約若出現糾紛，追索權亦難以行使。

規管方向與投資者保障

針對DeFi以至整個虛擬資產市場，環球金融當局都在提倡「相同活動、相同風險、相同監管」的原則，對於性質和風險一樣的業務活動，監管都一視同仁，以確保所有企業公平競爭。管治產生問題，皆因聲稱為分散式的DeFi協議實屬集中式，而引起虛假陳述和道德風險。所有DeFi平台都有中央管理框架，概述如何設定策略和營運優先事項，其中以「管治代幣」持有者（通常是平台開發者）為本的集中化要素，可以作為承認DeFi平台類似公司等法律實體的基礎。

此外，國際組織也針對DeFi市場的獨特性提出具體建議，以降低DeFi對金融穩定造成的風險。金融穩定委員會和經濟合作與發展組織強調持續監察DeFi發展及嚴防其外溢風險的重要性。國際證券事務監察委員會組織則要求對「DeFi安排」行使重大控制或影響的關鍵參與者解決利益衝突、重大風險和披露問題。由於DeFi仍處於發展初階，專門針對DeFi活動的法規仍不多見，相關的例子是阿布扎比國際金融中心金融服務監管局在2023年發布的基礎法規（DLTFR 2023），臚列有關DeFi的條文。

特區政府認同虛擬資產的合法性及其在金融業的角色，並歡迎服務提供者在香港落戶，同時強調設立適時和必要的防範措施。香港金融學院行政總裁馮殷諾表示，去中心化金融和元宇宙相關的新興科技，與更廣泛的虛擬資產和Web 3.0發展息息相關，有望為金融服務業帶來各種機遇。市場參與者則認為，明確的監管框架、強大的金融基礎設施和網絡，以及具備區塊鏈相關技能的人才，對促進本港DeFi和虛擬資產市場的進一步發展至關重要。

【註1】 Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research. “Decentralised Finance: Current Landscape and Regulatory Developments”. HKIMR Applied Research Report No.1/2024.

【註2】 Aramonte, S., Huang, W., & Schrimpf, A. （2021）. “DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion”. BIS Quarterly Review.

謝國生博士
港大經管學院金融學首席講師、新界鄉議局當然執行委員

章頴芝女士
香港大學附屬學院高級講師、經濟及商學部助理主任

何敏淙先生
香港大學附屬學院講師

（本文同時於二零二四年七月二十四日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

Perhaps unbeknownst to the locals, Hong Kong is already entering the Web 3.0 era. Not only has the SAR Government been actively promoting its development in recent years, but in May 2024, Cyberport also announced the establishment of the “Web 3.0 Investors Circle” under Cyberport Investors Network to facilitate related investment. These progressive initiatives hinge on web security and protection for online consumers and investors.

How will the advent of Web 3.0 impact the ways people live and invest? The virtual-asset market is the holy grail for financial cities around the globe. With its status as an international financial centre, Hong Kong is set to secure its place in the market. In addition to supporting the sector’s development, the SAR Government, for its part, should formulate a custom-made regulatory framework.

Beware of virtual-investment traps

Virtual assets are part and parcel of the Web 3.0 ecosystem. Recent years have seen an upward trend of virtual-asset scams. Data for December 2023 of the Anti-Deception Coordination Centre of the Hong Kong Police Force illustrates that the top three most common investment frauds are investment fraud, employment fraud, and telephone fraud, with investment fraud showing a soaring rate of increase (see Figure).

The recent occurrence of a series of serious fraud cases in the virtual-asset market has been cause for alarm for some investors. The massive financial fraud case involving JPEX in 2023 turned out to be a crash course in virtual-asset investment for Hongkongers. The Securities and Futures Commission thus regularly publishes a list of suspicious virtual-asset trading platforms and a list of service providers applying for a licence to operate a virtual-asset trading platform.

Advantages of new financial products

On a traditional financial market, investment activities rely on interpersonal interaction. In order to avoid imitation by competitors, companies have the right to refuse disclosing details of their business models, leading to asymmetric information. Owing to high-efficiency operations and complexity of the modern-day financial market, it is necessary to integrate contractual trust into investment relations, which is the trust in the other party to fulfil their contractual obligations. A contract enables investors to accurately evaluate risks and returns, assisting all parties in assessing risks, including potential profits and losses of trustees.

The rapid advancement of technology has also brought about earth-shattering changes to the financial sector. As an emerging financial technology, decentralized finance (DeFi) can provide financial services without relying on traditional financial intermediaries, offering more cost-effective and safer alternative solutions to the conventional financial system. DeFi retains various traditional financial services, including exchange, lending, insurance, and asset management, yet it is unbeholden to any central authority. In addition, the trust mechanism of DeFi is based on smart contracts, which are program codes used to formulate contracts. By minimizing costs and potential human errors, it helps to address inadequacies of the conventional financial system.

Overnight change from summer to winter

Thanks to high expected returns and flexible investment options, DeFi became the fastest growing sector of crypto assets from 2020 to 2021, referred to as the “DeFi Summer”. The market capitalization of DeFi products and services skyrocketed from US$4.5 billion in June 2020 to US$166.5 billion in November 2021, marking a historical high. Meanwhile, the total number of crypto-asset wallets leaped from about 200,000 to around 5 million (see 【Note 1】).

However, the bankruptcy of major crypto-asset service providers one after another revealed how easily retail investors could be lured by the promise of unrealistically substantial returns. The complete anonymity of cryptocurrencies makes them exploitable by criminals, progressively exposing the underbelly of the market. As a consequence, the negative shift in investor sentiment ushered in the “Crypto Winter”.

The price of crypto assets plummeted by 75% from the peak in late 2021 while Defi’s market capitalization fell to US$32 billion by the end of 2022 (see Figure). Nevertheless, DeFi so far represents but a relatively small portion within the crypto-asset ecosystem. With its market value standing at US$113.7 billion as of March 2024, DeFi merely accounted for 4.1% (US$2.73 trillion) of the total market capitalization of crypto assets.

Figure Market capitalization of crypto assets and DeFi

Source: Statista and Trading View; authors’ calculations

Inherent flaws and potential risks of DeFi

There is evidently a lack of comprehensive investor-protection measures for the DeFi market. While DeFi and the crypto-asset market have been undergoing rapid growth, regulatory measures have yet to be standardized across countries because of their cross-border nature. Characterized by its access to high leverage from lending and trading platforms (see 【Note 2】), DeFi enables investors to purchase more assets after making an initial investment. However, when it becomes necessary to decrease the debt, due to investment loss or collateral depreciation, investors would be forced to sell their assets, exerting further downward pressure on prices. That explains why investors suffered huge losses when the DeFi market crashed in 2022.

At the same time, the cross-border nature of blockchain has also given rise to compliance and legitimacy issues while there is a lack of cohesion in legislation and law enforcement in different jurisdictions. The worldwide nature of DeFi and the crypto-asset market means that DeFi entities, participants, and related activities often straddle national borders, with varying rigidity of regulatory standards among them. Operators and service providers failing to comply can thus seek to take advantage of loopholes and relocate to countries with minimal or zero regulation. This also makes it difficult for financial institutions to gather relevant information, posing a big hurdle to investor protection.

The absence of standardized definitions and classifications of crypto assets has created enormous challenges for the world’s financial regulators in analysing and verifying the authenticity of different crypto-assets products. Given the immutability of smart contracts, any errors or loopholes in the contract’s programming code could have dire consequences. Besides, legal recourse is elusive in the event of disputes derived from financial smart contracts.

Regulatory approaches and investor protection

With regard to DeFi and the entire virtual-asset market, financial authorities around the world are upholding the principle of “same activity, same risk, same regulation”. By affording the same treatment to business activities of the same nature and with the same risk, this practice ensures fair competition for all companies. Governance issues often arise with DeFi agreements which claim to be decentralized but are in fact centralized, resulting in false claims and moral hazards. All DeFi platforms have a central management framework which outlines how to formulate strategies and operational priorities. The centralized element, based on governance token holders (usually platform developers), can serve as the basis for recognizing DeFi platforms as legal entities similar to companies.

In addition, international organizations have made specific recommendations regarding the unique nature of the DeFi market to minimize financial stability risks. The Financial Stability Board and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development stress the importance of constant monitoring of Defi’s development and stringent prevention of its spillover risks. The International Organization of Securities Commissions requires key participants with significant control of or impact on DeFi arrangements to resolve conflict of interests, major risks, and disclosure-related problems. Since DeFi is still in its infancy, there have been few regulations targeting DeFi activities. A relevant example is the “DLT Foundations Regulations 2023” introduced by the Financial Services Registration Authority of the Abu Dhabi Global Market in 2023, consisting of provisions related to DeFi.

The Hong Kong SAR Government embraces the legitimacy of virtual assets and their role in the financial sector. Service providers are welcome to establish operations here, ensuring they have timely and necessary preventive measures in place. According to Mr Enoch Fung, CEO of the Hong Kong Academy of Finance, emerging technologies related to DeFi and the metaverse, which are inextricably linked to the growth of virtual assets and Web 3.0, are likely to bring opportunities to the financial services industry. To market participants, a clear regulatory framework, powerful financial infrastructure and networks, and people with blockchain-related skills are crucial to the future prospects of DeFi and the virtual-asset market in Hong Kong.

【Note 1】 Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research. “Decentralised Finance: Current Landscape and Regulatory Developments”. HKIMR Applied Research Report No.1/2024.

【Note 2】 Aramonte, S., Huang, W., & Schrimpf, A. （2021）. “DeFi risks and the decentralisation illusion”. BIS Quarterly Review.

Dr. Maurice K.S. Tse
Principal Lecturer in Finance

Ms. Vivian Cheung
HKU SPACE College Senior Lecturer

Mr. Clive Ho
HKU SPACE College Lecturer

(This article was also published on July 24, 2024 in the “Lung Fu Shan” column of the Hong Kong Economic Journal)

香港人說不好英語了嗎

香港人注重外界對香港的看法，自然關注各種世界排名。最令人振奮的是，這片彈丸之地的高等院校在多個世界大學排名榜都表現不俗，與歐美諸多名校幾可並駕齊驅。港人對此津津樂道之時，另一個教育排名卻鮮有人提，也就是英語水準的排名。

EF English First在去年年底公布2023年EF英語能力指標測試報告，在不包括英國、美國、加拿大、澳洲的113個國家和地區當中，香港名列29，在亞洲23個國家和地區中則排名第4，遠遜新加坡（全球排名第2，亞洲居首），也落後於菲律賓（全球排名第20，亞洲第2）和馬來西亞（全球排名第25，亞洲第3）【註1】。

上述測試結果對於曾是英聯邦掌上明珠、當下力爭國際大都會前茅的香港，自然不盡如人意。其中最令人憂心的是，18至20歲年齡組別的英文水平不斷滑坡，這跟筆者在香港大學任教的印象頗為吻合；觀乎經濟學、工商管理學、金融學的本科生當中，不少本港學生因為英語欠佳，以至上課沉默寡言、作業詞不達意，落後於國際學生和部分內地生。

一個人是否堪稱人才，一座城是否堪稱名城，不能單以英文水平來論英雄。在亞洲，與香港一般發達的地區，便有兩個迥然相異的例子：新加坡和日本。

「新」式英語 自成一派

揶揄新加坡人說英語「土氣」，筆者並非始作俑者，更無貶損之意。英國廣播公司在1986年推出頗為流行的電視系列，名為The Story of English，還曾獲得艾美獎。其中一集內容有關英語在亞洲的命運，稱新加坡英文為Singlish。據說，當時不少新加坡人頗為憤慨，引以為恥。建國總理李光耀在1999年的公開演說中，大力鼓勵國民學好標準英語，藉此加深新加坡人了解世界，也便於世界加深了解新加坡【註2】。

英國人對Singlish的揶揄，成為刺激新加坡人改善英文的動力。政府官員被要求上特別培訓班，學好標準英文，《海峽時報》請英文專家寫語言專欄，旨在推廣標準英語學習；舉國上下，掀起了學英語的熱潮。與此同時，英文在新加坡本土化，新加坡人對「土氣」英語也毫不在意了。有文化人還寫起「新」式英詩，以「car here, car there」之類的Singlish入詩，趣味盎然。

新加坡方言眾多，沒有強大的本土語言，在政府的宣導下形成普通話主內，英語主外的格局。這個雙語模式對該國的經濟崛起，功不可沒。新冠肺炎疫情過後，新加坡和香港成為國際學者來往的重鎮。筆者聽到不少著名學者說，在新加坡的語言環境中感覺更加自在。

日式英語無聲勝有聲

與新加坡人人說英語截然相反，日本人基本不說英語。日本人素來以文明細心出名，到日本旅遊不難體會當地人待客的熱情和體貼。可惜的是，交流是個極大的障礙。大城市的藥店有很多中國留學生打工，交流不成問題，但除此之外，酒店也好，餐廳也好，很難找到英文能夠說得達意之人。某年寒冬，筆者到大阪出差，在車站問路。結果整個車站陸續出來5、6個工作人員，每人看了一下筆者手中的地址，滿臉笑容地講着一模一樣的日語，筆者則是自始至終地一頭霧水。最後，站內一位大叔甘冒風雪，堅持帶着筆者走了10幾分鐘，一直送到目的地才自行回去。

不說大阪這樣的工業城市，即便是京都這樣的首善之區、舉世聞名的旅遊城市，能用英文交流的日本人也是少之又少。每每滿懷熱情走進一家古色古香的店舖，店裏的姑娘極其認真地用日語為顧客介紹，看見對方不明白，一遍又一遍不厭其煩地講解。所謂精誠所至，金石為開，聽多幾遍日語，琢磨幾下肢體語言，有時也會碰上豁然開朗的時刻。只是筆者認為，把工匠精神放在對遊客的導購上，似乎不太值得。

日本人為什麼說不好英文？筆者就此問題多方問了日本友人。最常聽到的解釋是，日語和英語是全世界最相反的語言，所以日本人學起英語特別困難。

這讓筆者想起著名數學家、日本首位菲爾茲獎（Fields Medal）得主小平邦彥的傳記。小平因為解決數學上的一些難題，在二戰之後應邀到普林斯頓高等研究院（Institute for Advanced Study）訪學。此君無論怎樣努力也說不好英語，上課時只在黑板上寫公式、推證明，不給學生做口頭講解。沒料到這種獨特的無聲勝有聲的授課風格，竟然大受學生歡迎，因為英美教授講得太快，學生跟不上節奏。小平在其傳記中還提到一個笑話，說另外一位旅美日本科學家，朝永振一郎（1965年諾貝爾物理學獎得主）的英語變好，是因為把牙齒都拔光，換成一副美國製造的假牙。

像小平、朝永這樣的天才英語都說不好，何況常人！足見日語確實與英語勢不兩立。然而筆者對這個解釋不甚以為然，皆因日本友人當中，也不乏英語流利之人。究其原因，還是在日本說英語的經濟回報不高所致。日本經濟出口遠大於進口，本土產品質量高，國民對外國產品興趣不大，也不時興送兒女到歐美留學，所以對英文並無親近之感。再者，日本自明治維新以來，就有個精英階層，把歐美科學知識和文化藝術的最新潮流翻譯成日文，迅速本土化。所以，儘管市民大眾英文說得磕磕巴巴，日本卻是世界吸收西方文化養分最好的國家之一，不僅在科技一環人才輩出，而且在音樂、建築、藝術領域也出現過不少風靡西方的大師級人物。

港式英語亦中亦西亦本土

新加坡人和日本人對英文的態度都頗為徹底。一個是全盤接受，就算有些土氣也把英語轉化成大眾語言；一個是基本拒絕，由精英階層負責把世界先進的科技文化本土化。相形之下，香港人說英語卻要雜亂得多，南腔北調，應有盡有。有操倫敦牛劍腔或者紐約波士頓標準美語的，有南亞、東南亞風味的，有江浙滬口音的，更有本地廣東腔調的。

本來語言多元化是好事，但缺乏主心骨，加上日常生活的消解，就容易出現雜亂無章的情況。上世紀的香港，學好英文是社會向上流動的重要途徑，普通民眾都樂於學習。加上有中英文俱佳的老輩文化人，孜孜不倦地敦促港人多加努力，由此漸成風氣。如今學英文的環境比從前不知好上幾倍，可惜缺乏動力和示範效用，年輕人不願意在語言方面下工夫，自然學不好英文。

今時今日，西洋人嫌香港太洋，中國人嫌香港太中，而香港人則嫌香港太不本土。香港要實現中西合璧，應當從語言做起，社會各界攜手宣導年輕人學好中英雙語。

語言不是此消彼長的關係，雙語掌握得當，加上根深柢固的粵語，香港人方能享有海納百川的獨特港式優勢。

註1： https://www.ef.com/assetscdn/WIBIwq6RdJvcD9bc8RMd/cefcom-epi-site/reports/2023/ef-epi-2023-english.pdf

註2： https://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/data/pdfdoc/1999081404.htm

吳延暉教授
港大經管學院經濟學、管理及商業策略副教授

（本文同時於二零二四年七月十日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）