Ever mindful of the impression the Pearl of the Orient gives to the outside world, Hong Kong people naturally pay close attention to all sorts of international league tables. What’s most encouraging is that, in a tiny place like Hong Kong, local higher-education institutions fare impressively in various global university rankings, rivalling top universities in Europe and the US in academic performance. While Hongkongers are relishing these achievements, an education league table focusing on English language skills is hardly in the public eye.

According to the EF English Proficiency Index published in late 2023, among the surveyed 113 countries and regions (excluding the UK, the US, Canada, and Australia), Hong Kong ranks 29th and is in 4th place among 23 Asian countries and regions, lagging far behind Singapore, which ranks 2nd on the global list and top in Asia. In the Index, the SAR also trails behind the Philippines, which ranks 20th worldwide and 2nd in Asia, as well as Malaysia, which ranks 25th worldwide and 3rd in Asia (see 【Note 1】).

To Hong Kong, once the crown jewel of the Commonwealth and now striving to be a leading international metropolis, the above results are of course less than ideal. What is most worrying is that English proficiency among the 18–20 age group has been sliding and that is also my impression as a teacher at The University of Hong Kong. Among undergraduates studying economics, business administration, and finance, many local students keep quiet in class and even struggle to convey their meaning in assignments due to low English proficiency. As it appears, they fall behind international students and some counterparts from the Mainland.

Whether an individual can be regarded as talented or a city as a mecca of some sort cannot be determined by English proficiency alone. Among developed economies other than Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan stand out as two distinctly different examples in Asia.

“Singlish”: one of a kind

I am not the first to say tongue in cheek that Singaporeans have their localized way of speaking English. Nor is such a comment meant to be derogatory at all. In an episode of “The Story of English”, a popular Emmy-winning TV series launched by the BBC in 1986, the future of the English language in Asia was explored and Singaporean English was referred to as “Singlish”. Finding this a disgrace, many Singaporeans were much offended. In a public speech in 1999, Lee Kuan Yew, the founding prime minister of Singapore, stressed the importance of speaking and writing standard English so that “we can understand the world and the world can understand us” (see 【Note 2】).

The English attempt to take the mickey out of the use of Singlish galvanized Singaporeans into action to improve their English standards. So government officials were required to attend training courses to brush up on standard English. The Straits Times started hiring English experts as columnists to promote the learning of standard English. The engineered effort resulted in a nationwide English-learning trend. Meanwhile, as the English language continued to localize, Singaporeans gradually got used to using Singlish as a colloquial style of English. Even such vibrant Singlish phrases as “car here, car there” have found their way into the poems written by local cultural figures.

Amid a multitude of dialects in use and without a dominant national tongue, the Singaporean government has established a language framework where Putonghua is primarily used for domestic communication while English is used for international communication. This bilingual approach has been instrumental in the country’s economic rise. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, both Singapore and Hong Kong have become global knowledge exchange hubs. As I have been told by various famous scholars, they feel more at home in the linguistic environment of Singapore.

Japanese English: silence is golden

Unlike the Singaporeans, who have the drive to speak English, most Japanese people do not speak the language. The Japanese are well known for their civility and meticulousness. More often than not, travellers are impressed by the hospitality and attentiveness of the local people. Foreigners, however, may find it an uphill battle to overcome the language barrier. At drugstores located in big cities, where many Chinese students work as part-timers, communication is not a problem. Otherwise, be it at hotels or restaurants, it is not easy to find someone who can speak decent English. On a business trip to Osaka in the depth of winter one year, I asked for directions at a train station. Five or six staff members there came out one after another. After taking a look at the address in my hand, they all smiled and spoke the same phrases in Japanese, leaving me completely clueless all along. Finally, a helpful gent at the station braced the heavy snow and insisted on walking with me all the way to my destination for the next 10 minutes or so before heading back by himself.

In fact, industrial cities like Osaka aside, even in Kyoto, an ancient capital and world-renowned tourist city, only a few Japanese people can communicate in English. As a customer enters a quaint old shop in enthusiastic anticipation, a female shop assistant will diligently introduce the products in Japanese. Even though seeing the customer does not understand at all, she will nonetheless go on explaining with patience, perhaps hoping that “sincerity can move even metal and stone” — that after listening to Japanese some more, coupled with the help of non-verbal communication, the customer will eventually understand what she means. Having said that, I do not find it worthwhile to apply such a craftsman-like spirit to luring a potential customer.

Why are there so few English speakers among the Japanese? I have posed this question to my Japanese friends. The most common explanation is that the Japanese and English languages are like chalk and cheese in their differences. That is why they find it so hard to learn English.

This reminds me of a story in the biography of mathematician Kunihiko Kodaira, the first Japanese recipient of the Fields Medal. After the Second World War, to resolve some mathematical problems, he accepted the invitation to be a visiting scholar at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, US. No matter how hard he tried, he simply could not express himself well in English. During class, he only wrote equations and proofs on the blackboard, without giving students any oral explanation. To everyone’s surprise, the non-verbal teaching approach was a great hit among students because they often found it hard to follow the American and English professors who spoke too fast. In his biography, Kodaira mentioned an amusing anecdote about Shinichiro Tomonaga (1965 Nobel prize in physics laureate), a visiting Japanese scientist to the US at the time. In a desperate bid to improve his English, Tomonaga was said to replace his teeth with a full set of American-made dentures.

Even geniuses like Kodaira and Tomonaga could not speak English, let alone mere mortals among the Japanese! Apparently, the two languages are really a world apart from each other. However, I find this explanation hard to accept because many of my Japanese friends speak fluent English. At the end of the day, the main reason is that the economic return on mastering English is low in Japan. Given the much greater importance of exports to the Japanese economy compared to imports, coupled with the high quality of domestic products, the Japanese have little interest in foreign products. Nor are Japanese parents keen on sending their children to study overseas. Hence they never get to develop an affinity with English. Furthermore, since the Meiji Restoration, Japanese elites have been hard at work translating Western scientific knowledge as well as the latest trends in arts and culture into Japanese, expediting the pace of localization on these fronts. As a result, despite the inability among the general public to speak fluent English, Japan is one of the countries worldwide most steeped in Western culture. Not only has it been a cradle of talent in science and technology, but it has also nurtured numerous maestros in music, architecture, and arts who have taken the West by storm.

Chinglish: a mix of Chinese, English, and local flavours

Singaporeans bear resemblance to the Japanese in having an extreme attitude towards English. The former takes the language on board completely, popularizing its daily use to the extent of creating a hybrid known as Singlish. In contrast, the latter gives English a wide berth, relying on Japanese elites to localize the world’s advanced science and arts. In comparison, spoken English in Hong Kong is much more of a mixed bag, with all sorts of regional accents. Be it standard English with a London Oxbridge accent or New York-Boston accent, English with a South Asian or Southeast Asian accent, or that with a Jiangsu, Zhejiang, or Shanghai accent, or even a local Cantonese accent, you name it, we’ve got it!

While a diverse language environment is a good thing, without a linguistic mainstay and combined with the dilution effect of daily life, a jumble of styles can be confusing. In the last century, as an important pathway to upward mobility, English learning was popular among Hong Kong people. Thanks to tireless encouragement from bilingually proficient cultural figures from the older generation, more and more locals have taken to English learning. The environment for learning English today is markedly better than before. Regrettably, without motivation or role models, young people who are unwilling to work hard to brush up their language skills will only find it hard to master English.

Nowadays, while Westerners find Hong Kong too Westernized and Mainland Chinese find Hong Kong too Chinese, Hongkongers find our city not localized enough. To truly embrace the unique characteristics of East meets West, language learning is the place to start. It behooves various sectors of the community to support young people to become bilingual in Chinese and English.
Language learning is not a zero-sum game. Only with the right blend of bilingualism, coupled with a solid foundation in Cantonese, will Hongkongers be able to enjoy an all-embracing advantage all of their own.

【Note 1】: https://www.ef.com/assetscdn/WIBIwq6RdJvcD9bc8RMd/cefcom-epi-site/reports/2023/ef-epi-2023-english.pdf
【Note 2】: https://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/data/pdfdoc/1999081404.htm

Professor Yanhui Wu
Associate Professor in Economics, Management and Strategy

Further to our discussion in this column last week regarding cash dividend distribution among A-Share listed companies and the growing trend in recent years, below is a review of the background factors and related taxation issues.

Legislating to keep up with the times

In view of the general apathy among A-share companies towards distributing cash dividends in general, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has, over the years, introduced various regulations to guide, encourage, and require listed companies to pay dividends. The “Measures for the Administration of the Listed Company Issuing New Shares” were promulgated in 2001 to mandate companies issuing new shares to provide an explanation if they have not declared dividends within the past three years. Released in 2004, the “Provisions on Strengthening the Protection of the Rights and Interests of the General Public Shareholders” specifically prohibit listed companies that failed to distribute profits in cash in the last three years from issuing additional shares and convertible bonds and from allotting shares to the company’s existing shareholders. Aimed at suitably protecting the interests of small and medium investors, this marks the CSRC’s first mandatory requirement for listed companies to pay dividends.

Announced in 2006, the “Administrative Measures for the Issuance of Securities by Listed Companies” stipulate for the first time that the profits accumulatively distributed in cash or stocks should not be less than 20% of the average annual distributable profits realized within the last three years. The “Decision on the Revision of Several Regulations Regarding Cash Dividends” promulgated in 2008 makes cash dividend distribution mandatory and raises the percentage to 30%.

Measures for cash dividends released by the CSRC in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2022 underline the prescriptive nature of dividend distribution and are thus conducive to promoting this practice. Promulgated in 2013, the “Guideline No. 3 on the Supervision and Administration of Listed Companies ― Cash Dividend Distribution of Listed Companies” (hereinafter “Cash-Dividend Distribution Guideline”) makes it mandatory, for the first time, for independent board members to put forward their independent views on cash dividends. Besides, securities regulators are required to pay special attention to any irregularities about a company’s cash dividend distribution, e.g. withholding such distribution in spite of readily available funds or substantial dividends, or cash dividend payouts excluded in the company’s Articles of Association. The Guideline enables the board of a listed company to implement a differentiated cash-dividend-distribution policy based on comprehensive considerations of such factors as the company’s industry characteristics, development stage, its business model, profitability, and any arrangements for major capital expenditure.

．If the company is at a mature stage of development and has no arrangements for major capital expenditure – the proportion of cash dividends (i.e. cash dividends divided by the sum of cash dividends and stock dividends) should account for at least 80% of the profits distributed in the corresponding period;

．If the company is at a mature stage of development but has arrangements for major capital expenditure – the proportion of cash dividends should account for at least 40% of the profits distributed in the corresponding period;

．If the company is at a growing stage of development and has arrangements for major capital expenditure, the proportion of cash dividends should account for at least 20% of the profits distributed in the corresponding period;

．If it is difficult to identify the company’s development stage and the company has arrangements for major capital expenditure, then the provisions in the foregoing paragraph shall apply.

The “Notice on Encouraging Mergers, Acquisitions, and Restructuring, Cash Dividends, and Share Repurchase of Listed Companies” rolled out in 2015 encourages, for the first time, listed companies to distribute interim dividends. The 2002 Cash Dividend Distribution Guideline requires the issuer and sponsoring organization to give a reasonable explanation if the cash dividends paid by their listed company are low.

The latest Cash-Dividend Distribution Guideline revised in 2023 mandates that companies prioritize cash payouts as a form of profit distribution and incorporate a cash-dividend distribution policy into their Articles of Association. The proportion of cash dividends in the distributed profits for the corresponding period, as specified in the 2013 Cash-Dividend Distribution Guideline, still applies. In accordance with the Guideline, listed companies are required to disclose the reasons behind their failure to pay dividends. Apart from providing specific reasons for low cash dividends, companies must also disclose their improvement measures to be taken to boost investor returns. This approach aims to urge companies with high capital investment but low dividend payouts to lift their cash dividends. The Guideline also stipulates that, when reviewing the annual profit distribution plan at their annual shareholders’ meetings, listed companies can deliberate and approve the conditions, maximum ratios, maximum amounts, etc. for cash dividends in the following interim period. This facilitates the establishment of the practice of distributing interim dividends and increases the frequency of cash payouts. In addition, the Guideline no longer requires independent board members to provide their individual views, thereby streamlining the company’s internal process of cash-dividend distribution.

Issued in April 2024, the “Guideline in Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Markets, Strengthening Regulation, and Forestalling Risks” demands tightening the regulation of cash dividends on the part of listed companies. It requires limiting major shareholders’ reduction of share capital and issuing special-treatment risk alerts for companies that have not distributed dividends or have maintained low dividend ratios for an extended period. The regulation of cash dividend distribution is thus escalated once again.

All in all, the CSRC has been paying increasing attention to and strengthening the regulation of cash dividend distribution of A-Share companies. Such a degree of attention and requirement is rare among regulators worldwide, testifying to the regulator’s effort and determination to protect the interests of public shareholders. As of May 2024, the number of retail investors in the A-Share market stood at 220 million (see 【Note】). It helps to prevent listed companies from using listing as a means of profiteering. Cash-dividend policy has become a matter calling for serious attention for most listed companies.

Different dividend tax rates for different markets

It is noteworthy that different rates of profit tax apply to different investors in the A-Share market and the Hong Kong stock market and to dividends derived from different investment methods. For retail investors holding accounts at the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, the tax rate on cash dividends is determined by the length of shareholding, e.g. at a rate of 20% for shareholdings less than one month long and at a rate of 10% for shareholdings between one month and less than a year. Those with shareholdings exceeding one year are exempted from tax on the dividends received.

Investors who invest in stocks (H shares and non-H shares) listed in Hong Kong via the Southbound Stock Connect are subject to a 20% income tax on cash dividends received. Investors with a Hong Kong Stock Exchange account are subject to a 10% income tax for dividends earned from A-Share stocks via the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect or the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Currently, the treatment of dividend income varies among A-Share and Hong Kong market investors. Mainland investors face a higher dividend income tax when investing in H shares via the Southbound Stock Connect. The advantage of a higher pre-tax dividend yield due to the lower valuation of H shares issued by Mainland companies in the Hong Kong stock market is thus substantially offset. This scenario is not conducive to northbound inflows of funds to the Hong Kong stock market.

Different investors and the same investor using various methods to invest in a company’s stock are subject to different dividend tax rates. This not only influences the investors’ evaluation of dividend yields but may also affect the cash-dividend distribution policies of companies that are simultaneously listed on the A-Share market and the Hong Kong stock market.

Proposed improvements to taxation policy

Based on the above taxation analysis, we believe that it behoves regulators to adjust related tax policies in order to minimize or eliminate tax inequality, i.e. different tax rates levied on local and cross-border investors due to different investment account locations and different investment methods.

As it stands, protecting investors’ interests by guiding listed companies to distribute cash dividends through the CSRC’s regulatory requirements is doing more good than harm. In the long run, the decision to whether or not distribute cash dividends and to determine dividend payout ratios should be left in the hands of the listed companies, subject to approval by shareholders’ meetings. When the opportunity is ripe, regulators could consider relaxing or scrapping the dividend-distribution requirement for young innovation and technology companies that have research and development (R&D) expenditure reaching a certain proportion and have less cash holdings. This will serve to facilitate effort by promising companies to build up sufficient funds so that their market competitiveness can be maintained through R&D input and capital investment.

Note: https://www.news.cn/mrdx/2024-01/25/c_1310761978.htm

Professor Hong Zou
Professor of Economics

Mr Zike Shen
Masters Students at HKUBS

(This article was also published on July 3, 2024 in the “Lung Fu Shan” column of the Hong Kong Economic Journal)

A-Share listed companies in the Mainland have recently announced the annual results and profit distribution schedules of the previous year. According to statistics of the China Association of Public Companies, as of 2 May 2024, there were 3,859 listed companies planning to distribute cash dividends amounting to RMB2.24 trillion in 2023, representing a 5.16% growth over 2022. This can be largely attributed to the policy guidance provided by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The analysis below gives a clear overview of cash-dividend distribution by A-Share listed companies.

Incentives for distributing dividends

As a profit-making tool, stocks create benefits for investors when a company’s stock price goes up or when a company pays dividends. In a mature stock market, many listed companies distribute cash dividends on an interim or even quarterly basis, providing investors with regular income and boosting their confidence. On the other hand, through the distribution of dividends, companies return cash beyond their investment needs to shareholders, thus avoiding the waste of free cash flow due to inefficient empire building. As a result, the problem of management agency can be mitigated (see Note 1).

Investors usually expect the company they invest in to gradually increase its cash payouts. That is why a cash-dividend distribution policy, once implemented, is regarded as a long-term commitment. Any arbitrary reduction or suspension of cash dividends could trigger investors’ massive sell-off of the company’s stock because of concerns about its future, causing the stock price to plummet.

Given investors’ uncompromising expectation of cash dividends, company management tend to adopt a more conservative cash-dividend strategy. This also explains why corporate payout ratio and dividend per share have remained consistent with minimal change within a short period, e.g. two consecutive years. Stability of this nature is known as “dividend stickiness”. On the contrary, should company management significantly raise or lower dividends all of a sudden, it would inevitably signify to the market that they either have great confidence in or are deeply worried about the company’s future development.

Our research study illustrates that long-term dividend-paying companies in the A-Share market have also registered remarkable stock price performance. Over the period from 2008 to 2023, there were 17 listed companies in the market offering cash dividends on a regular basis. The buy-and-hold return excluding cash dividends between 2009 and 2023 was found to have outperformed that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index while the excess stock return calculated by the geometric mean was at 6.1% per annum. This goes to show that listed companies able to sustain stable cash-dividend distributions can offer investors handsome capital appreciation even in the secondary market.

For this reason, dividend-to-profit ratio, dividend yield per share (calculated as cash dividend per share divided by share price), and the stability of these indicators are crucial factors for investors when selecting stocks to invest in.

Dividend distribution trend yet to be set

Despite the importance of cash payouts to investors and investor-centred listed companies, regular distribution of dividends is not traditionally common among A-Share listed companies. This phenomenon can mainly be put down to the difficulty of initial public offering (IPO) and seasoned equity offering (SEO), both being subject to approval by the CSRC in a relatively complex process. According to data of East Money, the refinancing scale of A Shares in 2023 shrank by 25% year on year while directed share issues in 2023 hit a new decade low.

Furthermore, widely-held listed companies in the US markets are generally disinclined to issue new shares to avoid diluting the voting rights of major shareholders. The concentrated shareholding structure among listed A-Share companies, however, is characterized by a higher percentage of ownership in the hands of major shareholders. Hence the dilution of voting rights by new shares is less of a concern. Broadly speaking, listed companies tend not to distribute their hard-earned cash as dividends and would prioritize allocating the cash for business operations and investment purposes. As mentioned above, based on the statistics of our study, there are currently only 17 A-Share listed companies that have offered regular cash dividends in the past 16 years.

Apart from distributing cash dividends, listed companies can opt to pay cash to participating investors by repurchasing their stock shares in the market (see Note 2). A buyback of shares is usually conducted when a company’s stock price is low so as to signify to the market that its value is underestimated and to boost the company’s stock price. Since investors do not expect listed companies to carry out buybacks on a regular basis, the companies have great flexibility to choose if and when to buy back shares. Besides, a buyback of shares is conducive to reducing issued share capital and to increasing profit per share and the potential share valuation.

Under the existing taxation arrangements, investors who make a profit in the A-Share market are exempted from capital gains tax. In terms of taxation, a buyback of shares is thus theoretically preferable to cash dividends. That said, buybacks in the A-Share market have only debuted in recent years and the overall scale of transactions in the Mainland market is not large. On the other hand, given the benefits of buybacks, a growing number of listed companies in the US prefer it to cash dividends. Based on our research, America’s buyback magnitude surpassed cash-dividend magnitude for the first time in 1998 and has consistently exceeded it since 2010.

Recent trend of cash payouts

Our study also reveals that, during the past three years, more and more A-Share listed companies have been distributing dividends, totalling 3,294, 3,446, and 3,859 respectively, representing respectively 70.4%, 67.8%, and 72.4% of listed companies in the same period. The dividend magnitude of A-Share companies that simultaneously issue H shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (SEHK) was 83.2% and 81.2% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

In terms of dividend per share and dividend yield, the average pre-tax dividend per share among A-Share listed companies over the past three years was RMB0.31, RMB0.32, and RMB0.3 respectively. Meanwhile, the average dividend yield among these listed companies was 2.2%, 2.03%, and 1.82% respectively. Since new initiators tend to adopt a more conservative dividend policy, the average dividend distribution level in the market would normally experience a slight dip as more companies start making cash payouts. As for A-Share companies that also issue H Shares listed on the SEHK, the average pre-tax dividend per share for 2021 and 2022 was RMB0.438 and RMB0.516 respectively. Meanwhile, the average dividend yield among these listed companies for the same two years was 3.02% and 2.96% respectively.

All in all, both the number and proportion of A-Share listed companies that distribute cash dividends are showing a rising trend, gradually cultivating an atmosphere conducive to cash payouts. Compared with A-Share companies, H-Share companies provide investors with higher pre-tax dividend yields.

Note 1: Jensen, Michael C. “Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers.” The American Economic Review 76, no. 2 (1986): 323-329.

Note 2: Listed companies may also distribute one-off cash dividends or stock dividends (bonus shares). Since bonus shares do not involve cash payouts, they serve the same purpose as share splits. In addition, companies may sometimes issue alternative dividends in lieu of cash payouts. For example, at the end of 2021, a listed company in Hong Kong issued dividends through shares it held in another company.

By Professor Hong Zou and Mr Zike Shen
26 June 2024

In 2023, Hong Kong recorded an export decline of 10.3% in real terms and an import drop of 8.5% as compared to 2022. Despite significant overall increases in both imports and exports in the first half of 2024, Hong Kong’s cargo throughput to prime export destinations such as Europe, the US, Japan, South Korea still registered a fall. With shrinking re-export trade, which was once a major economic activity for Hong Kong, the city’s status as an international entrepot is inevitably under threat.

No more delay in economic transformation

The waning role of re-export trade and the transformation of Hong Kong as a trading port have long been topics of discussion within the wider community. Since the turn of this century, with the continuous development of various ports in the Mainland, particularly those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the share of transshipments from the Mainland through Hong Kong has been gradually decreasing. As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, which dealt a serious blow to local exports, Hong Kong’s status as a trading port and its trade diversion became a hot topic in the SAR Government’s economic policy deliberations.

In the 2024–25 Budget, the SAR Government unveiled a new transformation strategy. The plan is to harness the decades-long strengths in foreign trade to position Hong Kong as a multinational supply chain management centre. As Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po points out, Hong Kong boasts ample talent and comprehensive complementary professional services in addition to excellent hardware facilities. For Mainland enterprises planning to “go global” but lacking overseas experience and exposure, Hong Kong, in its traditional role as a super-connector between the Mainland and the international market, is well-positioned to offer the best solutions.

The economic transformation this time is not only a top priority under pressures from different quarters but is also a golden opportunity for Hong Kong to make the first move. On the one hand, amid rising geopolitical tensions, the global supply chain is becoming more and more fragmented. To address high tariffs and other trade barriers, China has resorted to an “indirect export” approach by exporting semi-finished goods to other developing countries for local assembly and exporting, effectively bypassing Hong Kong. This has further lowered the demand for re-export trade via Hong Kong, thus lending a new urgency to the city’s economic transformation.

On the other hand, in view of the rapid development of emerging markets, every country is vying for a piece of action in them. This has made it all the more necessary for Mainland enterprises to invest and produce in other countries and as a result, demand for related trade services has been on the rise. It is high time for Hong Kong to seize the golden opportunity during the trade restructuring by capitalizing on its own advantages and expediting its economic transformation.

Hong Kong’s strengths and underpinnings

The Government’s endeavour to build Hong Kong into a multinational supply chain management centre is taken by many as the ultimate objective. What is more, it epitomizes the SAR’s distinct competitive edge over other Asian cities in the following three areas.

1. A diverse range of trade financing options: In addition to a sound and robust financial infrastructure, Hong Kong has a sizeable and vigorous market that offers companies a great variety of financing channels. Its well-established legal system and years of experience in smooth operations also ensure a stable business environment.In the realm of trade financing and cross-border payment arrangements, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the local financial sector have stepped up effort to foster innovation. For example, the HKMA has in recent years been actively exploring a number of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) initiatives. Besides, through collaboration with the central banks of the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, and the Mainland, they have jointly developed the mBridge platform to facilitate cross-border CBDC payments. Making use of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, several leading banks in Hong Kong have separately or jointly launched an array of new solutions to provide digital safeguards and to expedite trade financing, supply chain financing, cross-border financing, etc.

   Thanks to its thriving and healthy financial market, Hong Kong is well-equipped to position itself as a supply chain management centre likely to remain head and shoulders above its regional counterparts in the short term. Over the past decades, ease of financing has been a crucial advantage conducive to trade. By maintaining a stable financial market, upholding transparent policies, and adhering to a sound rule of law, the SAR will continue to attract trading companies from abroad to set up businesses here.

2. A wide range of complementary professional services: To make Hong Kong an ideal supply chain management centre for companies and investors alike, trade and management-related services are just as indispensable as abundant liquidity. Throughout the decades, a full array of complementary professional services in law, accounting, investment, insurance, shipping, business strategy, and translation have evolved in Hong Kong because of its status as a trading centre. These services have become the SAR’s traditional advantageous sectors, where there is no shortage of talent or experience.Abiding by international standards within the domains of law and commerce, Hong Kong has become the top metropolis in Asia for international arbitration, trade compliance, and standard certification. Regarding trade arbitration, Hong Kong has always been Asia’s international arbitration hub. According to data of the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre, more than 70% of arbitration cases handled in 2023 were of an international nature, with parties involved in the cases coming from 45 countries and regions. In terms of testing and standard certification, Hong Kong boasts a mature industry made up of 900-plus professional agencies, providing certification and testing services in manufacturing, export, and supply chain sectors for buyers from various regions. The standards adopted by Hong Kong are recognized by over 100 economies worldwide.

   Similar to financial infrastructure, the professional services industry needs time for talent cultivation and standard formulation. These processes simply cannot be completed overnight. As remarked by the Financial Secretary, Hong Kong can be developed into a one-stop supply chain management centre complete with comprehensive services required by related companies worldwide. Given that other ports are unlikely to surpass Hong Kong in the short term, the SAR can enhance its overall competitiveness so long as it effectively capitalizes on and develops these advantages.

3. High-quality human capital: Regardless of the development or transformation approach, the most valuable source of capital lies in talent. The business environment and talent-development system in Hong Kong can ensure a continuous supply of skilled personnel in supply chain management. While there may be no global shortage of high-calibre professionals in finance, business, and law, it is rare to find individuals who are multilingual, culturally adaptable, and have international experiences and career exposure. These attributes not only form an integral part of the SAR’s education but are also the unique advantages of Hong Kong people.

Rising to formidable external challenges

Despite its head start on competitors, Hong Kong is faced with unignorable challenges mainly coming from intensifying geopolitical pressures. In the era of supply chain globalization, the trading industry is highly sensitive to geopolitics. Since it has relatively low resistance to risks, even minor adjustments to trade policies can cause significant disruptions to supply chain operations. Against the backdrop of China-US rivalry, re-emergence of protectionism, and fierce competition in Asian markets, Hong Kong has been subject to frequent impacts in recent years. As geopolitical tensions are likely to escalate in the foreseeable future, it behoves the authorities to prioritize balancing pressures from different directions, maintaining financial stability and legal transparency, as well as minimizing shocks to the business sector.

Secondly, Hong Kong’s standing in traditional developed markets has declined. The SAR Government has been proactive in visiting ASEAN, South American, and Middle Eastern countries in recent years, aiming to tap into potential markets. Notwithstanding the fresh opportunities available in these new markets, their increasingly complex political, cultural, and economic situations could impair the effectiveness of Hong Kong’s talent and experience. In order to provide services that enable Mainland enterprises to go global, it is imperative for the SAR to gain a deep understanding of the new environments and markets. Attaining the dual goals of competing with local or regional rivals while playing to its own strengths is as demanding as starting a brand-new industry from scratch.

Finally, the process of building, operating, and managing a supply chain management centre is a lengthy one. During the economic transformation, it is necessary to promptly determine future directions and the way forward. Under the SAR Government’s existing plan, the supply chain management centre is primarily and even solely designed to serve Mainland enterprises attempting to go global. To become an international supply chain management centre, Hong Kong must inculcate the need in customers from various countries and business sectors to make the SAR their first choice in this regard.

According to analysis using the Smile Curve concept in supply chain economics, profits from the supply chain vary across stages. Generally speaking, in both the upstream (research and development as well as design) and downstream (marketing and export) operations, revenues are higher compared with the midstream (production) stage. In order to list “multinational supply chain management centre” as another achievement in addition to “major international trade and financial centre” on its name card, Hong Kong must first identify which of its industries command a competitive edge in both upstream and downstream supply chain. The SAR Government could consider categorizing industries and service needs to facilitate service diversity and professionalization. Diversifying the target customer base is conducive to enhancing service professionalism, preventing firms in the same sector from constantly competing for the same group of customers. This strategy can also enable Hong Kong to diversify risks, thus bolstering its resistance to impacts from geopolitics and other factors.

by Professor Heiwai Tang and Ms Shuyi Long
19 June 2024

生物多樣性風險管理：全球策略及政策實踐

生物多樣性風險（biodiversity risk）和氣候風險（climate risk）都是環境問題，但兩者關注的領域和影響因素各有不同。

生物多樣性是地球上生物種類、基因和生態系統的豐富程度；是生態系統健康、可持續性和抵禦外來干擾的基礎。生物多樣性風險是指人類活動或自然現象導致生物多樣性減少的可能性，可能源於生態破壞、氣候變遷、污染、過度開發和入侵物種等。此類風險足以嚴重影響人類經濟、社會和生態系統，如糧食安全、水資源和藥物研發。保護和恢復生物多樣性以降低生物多樣性風險，對全球可持續發展具重要意義。

至於氣候風險，則來自人類活動造成的溫室氣體排放，進而導致全球氣候暖化、極端氣候事件頻率和強度增加，亦包括海平面上升、洪水、乾旱、食物和水資源減少。

儘管這兩種風險聚焦的領域不同，但其中仍存在一定關聯。氣候變遷可能加劇生物多樣性風險，導致物種分布、生態系統結構和生物相互作用出現變化。同時，生物多樣性的喪失，或會削弱生態系統對氣候變遷的適應能力。

訊息披露法規現況

儘管生物多樣性的喪失備受全球關注，各國政府卻尚未出台強制要求企業披露生物多樣性影響的法規。當前不少監管機構已制定關於環境、社會及管治（ESG）披露的指南和政策，生物多樣性通常作為環境因素的一部分被納入其中。譬如，美國證券交易委員會倡議上市公司披露對其業務具有重大影響的風險和不確定性，當中可能包括關乎生物多樣性的問題。

此外，美國一些行業和非政府組織也倡導企業在可持續發展報告中，提供關於生物多樣性的資訊。雖然並非強制性，但公司為了提高透明度和滿足持份者的要求，每多自願披露相關資料。同時，不少國家和地區鼓勵企業遵循國際性的ESG披露框架，如全球報告倡議組織（Global Reporting Initiative）的可持續發展報告指南，以及金融穩定理事會的氣候相關財務披露工作小組（Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures）。這些框架中通常也包含了與生物多樣性相關的披露要求。

企業應對風險策略

由於生物多樣性風險的廣泛影響及披露倡議，愈來愈多企業開始未雨綢繆，積極實行保護措施。以下為美國和本港兩大上市企業的典型案例，以資讀者參考。

為了應對生物多樣性風險對農作物的潛在危害，星巴克與保護國際（Conservation International）組織合作，推出「咖啡與農民的公平實踐」（C.A.F.E. Practice）計劃，以確保咖啡農場遵守保護生物多樣性和野生動物棲息地的核心準則。該計劃臚列農業規範和環境措施，旨在有效管理廢物和農藥的使用、節約能源和保護水質，以維護生物多樣性。截至2015年，星巴克已實現超過99%的咖啡豆通過此一嚴格篩選程序。

作為港企龍頭之一的長江實業集團有限公司，將生物多樣性風險納入其企業風險管理系統，並積極識別和評估潛在風險。該集團制定了以下各項生物多樣性政策：一、透過環境影響評估，以減輕其集團業務對自然棲息地的負面影響。二、積極與持份者合作，以互相增強對保護生物多樣性的意識。三、減少業務運營和建築項目對環境的污染，包括減少空氣、噪音和光污染。同時，在現有的基礎設施投資項目（如Northumbrian Water、UK Power Networks）中，採取措施減少產生廢棄物和碳排放，以保護自然環境和生物多樣性。

資本市場綠色機遇

生物多樣性的喪失可能引發一系列連鎖影響，世界經濟論壇估計，世界經濟有一半以上依賴自然。有鑑於此，不僅企業在探索有利生物多樣性的新商業模式，投資者也開始關注並投資保護世界生物多樣性，為市場帶來新投資機會。

目前，市場上專注於生物多樣性的股票基金數量不斷增加。許多投資機構利用專業知識，將資產分散投資於最有潛力促進生物多樣性的公司，推出多樣化的投資組合，供投資者選擇。例如，安盛投資管理亞洲有限公司的投資產品主要集中在可持續材料、土地和動物保護、水生態系統等領域。富達基金的最新產品也專注於投資致力解決生物多樣性喪失問題的頂尖公司，涵蓋污染治理、土地和海洋利用變化、直接開採等主題。

這些股票基金不僅支持保護生物多樣性，且符合聯合國提出的「2030可持續發展目標」，為投資者創造長期穩定的潛在投資價值。然而，在選擇投資組合時，投資者需仔細評估相關風險，包括行業對生物多樣性的影響、土地利用變化及供應鏈等間接因素對生物多樣性的影響。

政府相關政策展望

香港給人的印象是個繁華熱鬧的大都會，但這片彈丸之地也富於自然生態和生物多樣性，為市民帶來四季分明的景致。保護生物多樣性對於這座城市的可持續發展至關重要，特別是在氣候變遷等挑戰日益嚴峻的情況下，社會上下都必須共同努力，保護寶貴的自然遺產。2016年，特區政府公布首份城市級《生物多樣性策略及行動計劃》，旨在深化生物多樣性保護及支持本港的可持續發展。展望未來，除了加強本地教育，當局更應着力擴展在區域及國際方面的交流和合作。

在區域層面，特區政府可與珠三角地區攜手合作，共同應對跨境生物多樣性保育問題。例如透過設立跨境自然保護區、合作進行生物多樣性監測等方式，共同保護跨境生態系統和生物多樣性。區域合作有助於提高生物多樣性保育的整體效果，進一步促進區域可持續發展。

國際方面，特區政府可繼續與聯合國環境署、世界自然保護聯盟等國際環保組織加強合作，共同推動生物多樣性保護的研究、政策制定和技術交流。在此大前提之下，當局亦宜鼓勵本港科研機構與國際研究機構合作，開展生物多樣性保護的基礎及應用研究。

章逸飛博士
港大經管學院經濟學高級講師

江梓茵女士
港大經管學院本科生

（本文同時於二零二四年六月十二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

美國貿易政策何去何從

上月中，美國政府宣布對中國總值約180億美元的商品加徵關稅，包括電動車、電池、半導體和醫療用品等。雖然受影響的商品價值佔出口美國的比例不大，卻加劇了6年前特朗普掀起的貿易戰，使中美貿易局面惡化。數天後，拜登在美國「世界貿易周」（World Trade Week）活動開幕時表示，對華新關稅為其貿易成就之一，用以「保護」美國工人及企業。

二戰後的美國曾高舉自由貿易的大旗，鼓勵其他國家降低貿易壁壘，互相開放國內市場，推動多邊貿易協議，並反對保護主義。然而，無論是2017年的特朗普還是今天的拜登，都是利用貿易政策掩蓋各種反自由貿易的措施。

對華打關稅戰得不償失

眾所周知，特朗普政府的對外關係強調「美國優先」（America first），這一政策在貿易上的具體表現是不受多邊或複邊的貿易協議掣肘，例如藐視世界貿易組織（WTO）等國際機構的裁定，甚至打壓破壞有關機制。即使有貿易談判，也以雙邊為主，以便美國用強大的經濟力量脅迫對方。在貿易政策上，關稅是特朗普應對盟友和對手的主要招數。經過數年的貿易戰，美國對中國的貿易逆差並沒有減少，關稅亦沒有如特朗普所言由中國承擔，而是由美國消費者承擔。

與此同時，中國採取反制措施，減少從美國進口農產品，這使經濟受損的美國農民需要美國政府補貼。換句話說，美國消費者購買中國產品多付的費用，便經美國政府轉而用於補貼美國農民。

總體而言，美國在關稅戰中得不償失。此外，特朗普出任總統時施行的貿易政策，不但開了全球貿易的倒車，亦使其他國家噤若寒蟬。若特朗普在今年11月的大選捲土重來，各國紛紛表示將考慮不同的應變計劃。

拜登就任總統不久，便對歐洲盟友表示「美國回來了」（America is back），並擺出帶領美國重啟國際合作的姿態。拜登作為比較接受國際貿易的民主黨成員，曾支持美國、加拿大和墨西哥簽訂《北美自由貿易協定》（NAFTA），亦贊成中國在2001年加入WTO。

2020年競選期間，拜登用魯莽（reckless）、破壞性（damaging）和災難性（disastrous）來批評特朗普的關稅政策。然而，拜登已執政超過3年，期間並沒有撤銷相關關稅法案，反而變本加厲。深究其因，是因為特朗普很大程度上改變了美國的貿易政治生態，令美國難以回到自由主義的貿易政策。

很多人認為特朗普在2016年競選獲勝的一個主要原因是，強調全球化對美國尤其是製造業工人的負面影響。特朗普擺出保護美國製造業工人就業的姿態，此舉為其爭取到不少選票，特別是來自中西部搖擺州的選票。特朗普批評二戰後的貿易協議對美國工人不利，認為美國應該退出相關協議。特朗普類似的論述對製造業工人極具吸引力。

現任的美國貿易代表戴琦認為，希拉莉在競選美國總統時輸給特朗普的其中一個原因是，她支持《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（TPP）。在選舉政治的氛圍籠罩下，貿易協議和貿易議題成為美國政客避之惟恐不及的對象，拜登既不敢撤銷特朗普制定的關稅政策，亦不敢回到前身為TPP的「全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定」（CPTPP）。

拜登想將多邊主義及國際合作重新納入美國的對外關係，有別於特朗普的單邊主義，但又不能回到新自由主義的做法。他的團隊，包括國家安全顧問沙利文和貿易代表戴琦在內的官員，推出所謂的「中產階級外交政策」（foreign policy for the middle-class）和「以工人為中心的貿易政策」（worker-centered trade policy），作為新貿易政策的基礎。簡單來說，自由貿易看重生產成本，如美國成本高、競爭力低的製造業，會面臨外國產品的競爭，以及美國勞工失業的困境。無獨有偶，由於外國僱主維持低成本生產，外國勞工將因此缺乏工作權益的保障。戴琦將此現象稱為「逐底競爭」（a race to the bottom）。「以工人為中心的貿易政策」重點關注作為製造業的工人，保護本國和外國工人包括工作條件、待遇、工會權益在內的勞工權益，從而免受剝削。提高一國的勞工權益，亦會帶動其他盟國勞工權益的發展和進步，這是所謂的「力爭上游」（a race to the top）。

降關稅開放市場非選項

然而，滿足條件並願意合作，有意通過貿易提高雙方勞工權益的夥伴寥寥無幾。傳統上貿易合作基於互利的前提，會同時降低關稅或同時開放市場。但對美國當下政治環境而言，這兩者都不是選項。自拜登執政3年多以來，美國的外貿措施並無改善，甚至已陷入困境，美國積極推動的「印度太平洋經濟框架」（IPEF）便是最具代表性的實例。特朗普於2017年上任後隨即將美國從TPP撤出。

隨着印太地區經濟一體化的向前推進，美國只能袖手旁觀。除此之外，美國對中日韓、東盟和紐澳簽署的「區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定」（RCEP）也是冷眼旁觀。拜登政府認為美國推動的IPEF是其重新參與塑造印太地區經濟秩序的機會，也是證明其以工人為中心的政策可以取得成果的一種方式。

IPEF的成員包括美國、印度、印尼、日本、越南和澳洲在內的14個國家。IPEF旨在加強國家的綠色轉型，促進成員國有關反腐敗、供應鏈等領域的合作。

除此之外，拜登政府希望通過IPEF的合作提高環境水平和勞工待遇，減少其他成員國的競爭優勢，從而提高美國企業的競爭力。拜登政府只是模糊地承諾參與國可從西方金融機構獲得氣候和基礎設施的融資作為合作的回報，而這樣的合作條件並不對等。此外，拜登政府推動IPEF時，是以「執行協議」（executive agreement）的形式和其他國家談判，而非通過美國國會投票決議。這意味着它的命運可能跟TPP一樣，有機會被下一任總統撤銷。

去年11月，在拜登會見中國國家主席習近平的前一天，IPEF成員國在三藩市聚齊，試圖就IPEF框架的四大支柱達成協定。成員國在供應鏈、清潔能源投資和反腐敗的合作方面取得了進展，但美國代表卻在洽談貿易合作環節時退席。究其原因，是該架構遭到俄亥俄州和威斯康星州民主黨參議員的強烈反對。這些議員今年須面對競選連任的壓力，他們認為IPEF可能會損害美國工人利益，從而影響他們的連任機會。IPEF的會議草草收場，極度影響了美國的國際信用和其秉持的全球領導者的形象。

難斷言是全球化受害者

從宏觀經濟的角度看，拜登以工人為中心的貿易政策，勢必會提高生產成本、減少企業儲蓄並增加政府財赤。受惠的工人或許因待遇的改善而增加儲蓄，但個人儲蓄的增值並不足以抵消政府財赤的增加。與之相反，國民儲蓄的減少則會增加美國的貿易逆差。美國的貿易數十年來均錄得逆差，共和黨和民主黨的改善政策未見實效。不過，對美國來說，能夠開動印鈔機就能收割外國商品，因此難以斷言美國是經濟全球化和國際貿易的受害者。

目前，離年底美國總統大選只有5個月的時間。無論鹿死誰手，美國都不會重施新自由主義的貿易政策。美國是全球商品及服務的第一貿易國，其貧乏的貿易政策將直接阻礙全球貿易的發展。若利用得當，貿易可作為國家間和平的基石。如經過兩次大戰洗禮的歐洲，在痛定思痛後，成立了歐洲共同市場，由此開啟歐洲經濟整合的第一步。在國際政治波譎雲詭的今天，美國需要重審自己的貿易政策，以保障全球貿易的持續增長以及全球化的向前推進。

陸炎輝博士
港大經管學院榮譽副教授

（本文同時於二零二四年六月五日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

九龍城寨的龍捲風 漫威英雄的蜘蛛網 如何打造常青的商業IP?

本月上映的香港動作電影《九龍城寨之圍城》，本地票房已突破7000萬元，內地票房超過5.5億元人民幣，躋身香港電影史上華語片總票房排名榜前列。當觀眾驚嘆於城內錯綜複雜的江湖傳奇，沉浸於巨星和新星的連場激鬥，甚至期待已宣布開拍的前傳和續集時，不妨探究一下這部電影的來歷。

余兒的《九龍城寨》小說在2008年出版，大獲好評；2010年由司徒劍僑改編為同名漫畫，比小說更受歡迎，並獲「第七屆日本國際漫畫賞受賞作品」。2016年，無限動力公司購買小說版權，經過3年左右拍攝，終於在2024年將小說搬上大銀幕。

同樣的城寨，同樣的人物，同樣的故事，由小說到漫畫再到電影，受眾愈來愈廣泛，商業價值也逐漸攀升。類似的知識產權（intellectual property；簡稱IP）商業運作在迪士尼、環球影業、索尼等全球娛樂巨頭比比皆是，其中最成功的公司莫過於漫威（Marvel）。成立於1939年的漫威擁有蜘蛛俠、鐵甲奇俠、變形俠醫等4700多個知識產權。

這些知識產權不僅在漫畫、電影、電視、電子遊戲中登場，還出現在兒童玩具、食品、衣服等消費品中。漫威在影視知識產權方面的成功運作，不僅反映在跨界領域，更體現於同一個知識產權所打造的不同商業模式，如何相輔相成，形成一個良性循環、持續發展的商業生態。

以家喻戶曉的蜘蛛俠系列為例，作為漫威最成功的知識產權，這位超級英雄從1977年起上映了11部電影，貢獻了接近90億美元全球票房收入。蜘蛛俠的影響力遠不止於影院，透過發展漫畫周邊產品，如蜘蛛俠的玩具，乃至印有蜘蛛俠的服裝、食品、文具，都讓漫威賺到盤滿缽滿。在商業知識產權層出不窮、消費者喜好難以預測的今天，漫威是如何令這個長者級知識產權保持年輕的呢？

漫畫作為研發搖籃

蜘蛛俠在1962年7月31日出版的漫畫書Amazing Fantasy裏首次亮相，從此蜘蛛俠漫畫就一直刊載，從未停止。雖然漫畫書市場非常小眾，消費者通常是年齡13至23歲的男性，年銷售額大約1億美元，但漫畫市場作為漫威的新產品研發中心，作用無可替代。

隨着消費者喜好的改變，蜘蛛俠的故事也要順應潮流。故事裏的新情節、新角色，在漫威投入更多資源搬上電影銀幕之前，都是通過成本風險較低的漫畫市場來先測試水溫。即便新情節、新角色失敗了，漫畫市場的損失也相對有限；一旦成功，漫威則可以放心大舉投資。

電影作為推廣跳板

大眾熟知的蜘蛛俠大多來自電影，每年夏天，電影院都少不了蜘蛛俠的影子。其實電影最大的投資方倒不是漫威，皆因對這家公司來說，蜘蛛俠電影的投資成本和風險過大，據報2023年《蜘蛛俠：飛躍蜘蛛宇宙》的攝製預算是1億美元，而市場推廣又用上1億多美元【註1】。因此，早在1999年，漫威就以700萬美元把蜘蛛俠的電影版權賣給索尼；從2016年開始，迪士尼也加入到拍攝蜘蛛俠電影的行列。

儘管漫威未必能從蜘蛛俠電影中分到最大一塊蛋糕，但是每一輪電影的宣傳活動，每一次蜘蛛俠電影票房大賣，都為蜘蛛俠這個知識產權做足了廣告，更維持了蜘蛛俠知識產權的熱度。

蜘蛛俠真正為漫威帶來巨大收益的是看似不起眼的消費品，包括玩具、食品、服裝、飾物等。但凡消費品上印有蜘蛛俠的形象，用到Spider-Man的名稱，漫威就要收取8%至30%的版權費。2003年，漫威在消費品上收取的版權費佔其總版權費的50%，平均每個消費品的版權為漫威帶來超過30萬美元的進賬【註2】。

周邊產品作為賺錢機器

漫威從未生產過任何消費品，但為了保障蜘蛛俠這個知識產權，所有消費品的製造商都必須提交有關產品的設計，以供審核。漫威在通過消費品實現一本萬利的同時，也保證了蜘蛛俠知識產權不被錯用或濫用。

不難發現，漫畫、電影和消費品這3大領域各司其職，亦即新產品研發中心、營銷宣傳中心和利潤中心，功效相得益彰。

只要新情節在漫畫市場受到歡迎，就被帶上大銀幕吸金；而電影宣傳又促使蜘蛛俠的知識產權大熱，從而增加了漫威在消費品上的版權收入。通過積極保障蜘蛛俠知識產權，漫威得以保持這個超級英雄長青不老。

美國有風靡世界的蜘蛛俠，冀望香港也能有立足於世的知識產權。九龍城寨電影的龍頭人物龍捲風，也許可以從蜘蛛俠身上借鑑知識產權商業運作的經驗，不僅在電影銀幕上帶火昔日的九龍城寨，更有機會重新引領香港獨特的文化席捲亞洲，甚至廣傳世界每一角落。

【註1】 ： https://www.animationmagazine.net/2023/06/sonys-spider-man-across-the-spider-verse-passes-the-500-million-benchmark-worldwide/

【註2】 ： Elberse, Anita (2011), “Marvel Enterprises, Inc. (Abridged) “, Harvard Business School cases

范亭亭博士
港大經管學院市場學高級講師

（本文同時於二零二四年五月二十九日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

企業漂綠行為與監管回應

近年環球市場對可持續投資的需求有增無減，反映氣候變化和環保的議題備受重視；與此同時，亦令人關注「漂綠」（greenwashing）問題，其中包括企業為求吸引消費者和投資者、提升商譽，在宣傳與行銷過程中，過度誇大產品或服務的環保成效。漂綠行為通常透過誤導或虛假的陳述、廣告或標籤，使消費者和投資者誤以為某產品或服務對環境有益，儘管事實並非如此。放眼全球，企業漂綠事件屢見不鮮。為防被誤導，我們應關注產品的實際環保效果，而非只專注於廣告和宣傳。

中外企業漂綠案例

歐洲最大汽車製造商福士（Volkswagen，內地稱大眾汽車）在2014年推出了氫燃料電池車，贏得業界的廣泛讚譽。然而，一次廢氣排放測試的結果揭示有異常情況，美國國家環境保護局為此作出調查，發現大眾汽車在全球1100萬輛柴油車中安裝了減效裝置，可自動偵測車輛是否正在接受環保測試，並相應地減少車輛的廢氣排放，以符合環保標準。實際上，這些車輛的廢氣排放量竟高出美國標準40倍，足以致命。

最終，福士因欺詐被聯邦法院罰款28億美元，並須回收所有涉案車輛。這宗造假醜聞曝光後，該公司股價暴跌30%，市值縮水350億歐羅，不但嚴重損害企業形象和聲譽，也大大削弱消費者的信心。福士聲稱出廠綠色產品，其實以偽造數據欺騙公眾，此舉隨後成為企業漂綠的經典例子。

至於作為世界五百強之一的建築公司，中國中鐵（00390）不僅獲得了環境、社會及管治（Environmental, Social, and Governance，ESG）評級的AAA級，並獲中國上市公司協會選為ESG最佳實踐案例。其業務項目多與環保有關，更投入大筆資金研發綠色科技，將可持續發展作為企業使命。可惜現實偏偏相反，中鐵經常收到環境罰單，更在2022年因違法使用和破壞林地，被罰款約65萬元人民幣；同年，中鐵子公司也因排污和噪音問題違規，罰款逾160萬元人民幣。

確立綠色認證標準

歐洲方面，為了打擊企業漂綠行為，歐盟議會在本年1月17日正式通過《為綠色轉型賦權消費者指令》（The Directive on Empowering Consumers for the Green Transition，ECGT）。這項指令作為歐盟循環經濟計劃的一部分，旨在透過取締誤導性產品資訊和籠統環境聲明，協助消費者作出較佳購買選擇。

這項新法例的重點，是在當前歐盟的綠色轉型過程中，保障消費者免受有害商業行為的侵害。因此，ECGT將尋求禁止未經驗證計劃支持的籠統環境聲明、基於排放抵消計劃的環境聲明、毫無根據的耐用性聲明，以及其他廣泛的漂綠營銷行為。

ECGT透過確保行銷方面的產品綠色聲明更加透明可靠，以便消費者作出明智選擇，購得真正更耐用、可維修和可持續的產品。含糊的綠色承諾也將受到限制；只有當整個產品確實比傳統產品更環保，並通過像歐盟生態標籤這樣可靠的認證時，生產商才能將產品標記為「生態友善」或「綠色」。此外，如果產品或企業只是在某一細微部分變得比較永續，也不能將產品或企業宣傳為「綠色」。

除此之外，ECGT也透過規管永續標籤用途來實現這一目標，使它們更可信有效。為了提高生態標籤的可信度，該指令將禁止使用籠統的環境聲明（如「環保」、「可生物降解」、「氣候中性」和「生態友善」），若能證明整個產品確實比傳統版本更環保，則不在此列。在推行時，這意味着歐盟產品上的生態標籤需要通過批准的認證計劃或認可機構的獨立驗證。

至於中國內地，儘管目前沒有專門立法機關監管漂綠的不實廣告，但現存多項法規足以保障消費者和投資者。假使企業塑造虛假的綠色形象，企圖欺騙消費者，監管機構可按《廣告法》規管的虛假廣告、《消費者權益保護法》規管的損害消費者權益、《反不正當競爭法》規管的虛假商業宣傳，以及《產品品質法》規管的偽造和冒用認證標誌等法例加以起訴。違法者輕則被罰款並須作出賠償，重則或被吊銷營業執照，而且須承擔刑事責任。

加強資訊法規保障

針對不實披露環境資訊的情況，中國自2016年簽署《巴黎協定》以來，已經根據協定的綠色分類目錄來評估業界的綠色行為，涉及案例多達100萬宗。隨着綠色行為日漸普及和社會關注度提升，2021年中國修訂了《上市公司資訊披露管理辦法》，要求公開對環境違法行為的行政處罰。隨後一年實施《企業環境資訊依法披露管理辦法》，規定企業披露相關資訊，以確保環境資訊的明確性。

今年，國務院最新頒布了《碳排放權交易管理暫行條例》，對不實、偽造、篡改環境資訊和資料等行為設定罰款，並要求排放單位公開環境資料，這大大增加了對企業漂綠行為的威懾力和進一步預防漂綠行為。

章逸飛博士
港大經管學院經濟學高級講師

葉梓淇女士
港大經管學院本科生

（本文同時於二零二四年五月二十二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

香港旅遊業發展有何新方

港人北上，反向消費，已經成為新冠疫情后香港與大灣區旅遊消費的常態。根據旅遊發展局公布數據，2023年訪港內地旅客共2676萬人次，遠低於疫情前2019年的4377萬人次以及2018年的5104萬人次。相比之下，內地旅遊則大幅發展。2023年北上香港居民累計達5300萬人次，恰好為訪港內地旅客的兩倍，其中超過4000萬經深港各個口岸出境。

即便香港陸續出台諸多旅遊利好政策，其收效也頗為有限，訪港內地旅客恢復仍然緩慢。據旅遊發展局4月16日公布的初步數據顯示，2024年首季訪港旅客量為1123萬人次，按年增長1.5倍；若與2023年第四季相比，則有5%升幅，但這仍然遠低於2019年首季同期所錄得的1823萬人次。

曾幾何時，內地遊客在香港大街小巷人頭攢動的景象已不復存在。誠然，內地旅客消費模式轉變和疫情後經濟形勢是造成這一局面的部分原因，但香港自身旅遊吸引力下降實為主因。香港的高昂成本與部分行業的落後服務，在面臨內地物美價廉的商品和優質的服務面前，無疑缺乏競爭優勢。如何引潮回港，再創旅遊業的春天，成為當下香港亟需思考的一大問題。

打造全新港式旅遊

近幾年，全國各地城市嘗試深度挖掘，並大力推廣其城市特色，因此造就後疫情一波又一波的城市旅遊熱潮。例如西安的古都文化及兵馬俑、哈爾濱的冰雪大世界、長沙火辣的瀟湘文化和成熟的娛樂產業，一一成為各個城市獨有的魅力，吸引絡繹不絕的遊客到訪。

面臨競爭白熱化的新環境，香港旅遊消費增長的突破口，就在於如何定位和推廣自身的獨特優勢。因此必須因地制宜，在充分發揮傳統優勢之餘不斷創新，打造旅遊業的新名片和新爆點，應成為香港未來旅遊消費增長的主要路線。具體來講，可以從以下四大範疇出發，全方位塑造獨具香港特色的旅遊業。

國際都會遊

國際都市既是香港最核心的價值，也是傳統優勢所在。隨着消費者生活水平不斷提高，人們對旅遊的認知也不僅僅局限於走馬觀花式的打卡或是盲目地消費購物，而是追求更多更高質量的沉浸式體驗。到港遊客，除了被繁華的港風街景和幻彩的維港夜色所吸引，往往期待更深入地融入國際化都市生活。

為此，香港應擴展傳統優勢，積極承辦世界一流的文娛表演、藝術展覽等國際活動，吸引國內外遊客到訪。新加坡早前獨立承辦泰勒絲（Taylor Swift）的演唱會，充分反映這方面的巨大經濟效益。對於過去一年，香港也陸續承辦具有國際影響力的大型文娛藝術活動，如巴塞爾藝術展、香港國際電影節等已在港舉辦多年的文娛盛事，正是同時帶旺與之深度結合相關產業的最佳例子；活動期間，訪港旅客量、旅遊消費、酒店餐飲等都呈現顯著增長。

為了鞏固國際都會遊的固有魅力，可以在以下3方面繼續加強。第一，承辦部分國際一流的文娛演出和體育賽事，產生足夠的轟動效應和影響力。第二，賽事的選擇，要以通用吸引力為主，以保持流量，並兼顧小眾趣味和活動的多樣性和質量。第三，活動前的推廣，需要更強的把握流量密碼，利用自媒體的廣為宣傳，爭取頭條效應。活動後的跟進同樣不可或缺，不妨以系列性活動方式增強宣傳效果。

綠色休閒遊

大部分國際和內地遊客只知香港高聳入雲的樓宇和繁忙的街道。殊不知，香江依山傍海、四季溫潤，是開發綠色健康旅遊的絕佳目的地。這雖是個彈丸之地，但郊野面積超過一半以上，其中登山路線多不勝數。遊客既可按自身情況選擇不同難度的山徑，也可輕鬆享受沿途山水美景，對於終日奔波的都市居民而言，是絕佳的放鬆選擇。

除此之外，香港擁有四通八達的港口和諸多優質沙灘，遊客除了可以享受風光如畫的海灘，亦可親身體驗滑浪、獨木舟或海上夜釣等各類水上活動。天然條件皆已具備，香港要做的是如何推廣、引流，以及通過提供合理服務，將這些得天獨厚的自然資源轉變成實實在在的旅遊吸引力。

與此相關的體育賽事，亦可為旅遊業增加新亮點。各界每年都會舉辦多項行山賽事，其中大部分僅供本地行山愛好者參加。香港理應優化現有資源與安排，進一步擴大行山賽事的國際和國內影響力。打造香港行山賽事的品牌效應，從而吸引更多旅客到訪，為相關行業締造商機。

高校學術遊

香港擁有多所國際知名高等學府，一直以來吸引眾多境外學子前來求學。近幾年，受國際形式和地緣政治的影響，以及特區政府幾輪輸入人才計劃的推出，赴港求學的熱情日益高漲。內地家長和學子有需求來港實地考察，以便了解本地學校及教育體系。絡繹不絕的遊客和大大小小的旅行團，成為高校裏一道新的風景線。

雖然頻繁的參觀為大學日常教學帶來不少困擾，但筆者認為，「堵」不如「疏」，應正確面對市場需求，借此東風積極推動旅遊消費。各大學應適時成立對應部門，合理安排校園參觀，打造獨特的學術打卡點。不同學府甚至可以聯合舉辦針對內地學生的諮詢交流會，以吸引更多學生和家長在假期來港參觀。同時，積極利用本港高質量的暑期課程，使其成為拉動夏季旅遊的新亮點。

親民文化遊

香港是一個充滿藝術活力的城市。這些年，特區政府致力推動文化建設，將這座城市打造成中外文化藝術交流中心。香港故宮文化博物館、M+、西九藝術公園、戲曲中心等等，無不體現當局在建設現代文化之都的實力與決心。在此基礎上，香港可以考慮加入更多順應潮流的文化，多辦親民文化活動。

毋庸置疑，文化藝術是生活的載體，但要充分發揮其價值，則需拉近文化藝術與大眾生活的距離。過於抽象或晦澀難懂的文化藝術雖然高雅，但不易引起大眾共鳴。在這一環，除了連接國際親民潮流文化，亦應考慮內地潮流文化，畢竟過去10年訪港旅客中，有75%來自內地。因此，香港在積極打造國際文化之都的同時，也要兼顧大多數消費者的文化需求水平。只有把穩消費者的脈搏，才能設計出引人入勝的文化之旅；配合社交媒體的廣告宣傳效應，可讓更多潛在旅客了解香港的特色文化。

香港在放眼國際之餘，若能進一步利用背靠內地的優勢，相信可為本地旅遊業今後發展注入新動能。

李晶博士
港大經管學院工商管理學學士（國際商業及環球管理）課程副總監

（本文同時於二零二四年五月十五日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

北上消費 挖空經濟?

剛剛過去的五一假期，在內地被稱為吃喝玩樂爆棚的消費黃金周，算是給略顯疲態的中國經濟帶來一股暖流。雖然香港部分商家也受益於內地黃金周的溢出效應，但其作用就像這幾天市民議論紛紛的五一煙火表演，站在有利位置倒也頗為可觀，但畢竟不像射向高空的煙花那般絢爛，稍微遠離樓台就只能空對月。

這是本港近兩年的經濟寫照，每逢佳節長假，商家既喜且憂，尤其是港人北上消費日趨規模，而來港的內地遊客則消費降級。長此以往，不免讓人擔心本地服務業會不會像製造業一樣出現空洞化（hollowing out）？特區政府是否應該未雨綢繆，施以援手？

熱潮將成長期趨勢

港人北上消費現象簡直可以寫成經濟學教科書上的經典案例。市場經濟一大定律就是所謂的一價定律：在高效運作、競爭充分的市場，同量同質產品價格趨同。但這一定律在香港和鄰近內地城市的商品差價下顯得慘白無力，拿深圳作參照，香港物價動輒高出在內地同類消費一半，甚至數倍。

這樣巨大的價格差，如何得以長期維持？筆者認為無非靠以下幾個因素。一是區域壟斷（如醫療服務），若為市民提供的醫療保險只適用在香港，那港人不得不在港看病求醫。二是高交易費用，要是港人到內地消費交通不便、語言不通、對內地商家缺乏信任，那麼市民也不會大規模北上。三是本地偏好（home bias）強烈，如果香港人對本地特產情有獨鍾，對異鄉文化不甚了然甚或不願接受，那本地消費就會佔絕對主導的份量。

另外一個極為重要的因素是收入，如果香港人維持高水平的實際收入，日常消費只佔收入一小部分，就會出現經濟學上的需求價格彈性（price elasticity of demand）偏低。既然消費者對價格變動不敏感，市場價格自然有機會高企不下。

近年來，隨着香港與內地經濟上的加速融合，以上幾個讓一價定律失效的因素紛紛瓦解。但香港的高成本決定了物價高企，因此港人到內地消費的動力必然大為增強。筆者斗膽預測，港人北上消費將會成為長期趨勢，而且消費範圍會從吃喝玩樂日益擴大到醫療、文化等領域。問題的關鍵在於，此一消費趨勢會否削弱香港經濟的增長？

對整體經濟影響不大

北上消費蔚然成風，不能說對香港經濟秋毫無損，畢竟對不少商家來說，日常消費是此消彼長的現象。然而港人離港消費對整體經濟影響不會太大，這是長期形成的經濟結構使然。

在國際貿易研究中，經濟學者往往把一個經濟體分成兩大部門：可貿易部門和不可貿易部門。可貿易產品指在本地產出的物品和服務，但賣給外地的企業和消費者，比如香港製造的醫療用品，賣到美國市場去，或者香港企業提供的法律諮詢服務，賣給赴港上市的境外企業。不可貿易產品則是那些本地產出、本地消費的物品和服務，最典型例子莫過於餐飲業。實際經濟運行中，有一個介乎兩者之間的準貿易部門，其產品雖然不是直接賣給外地消費者，但其附加值依附於出口產品而產生，比如物流及金融服務。

香港屬於外向型經濟，可貿易部門是引擎，準貿易部門在其驅動下產生巨大乘數效應，促進經濟增長。以本地服務業為主的不可貿易部門，則是得益於其他兩個部門形成的溢出效應。因此，港人北上消費雖對本地服務業有一些衝擊，但對整體經濟影響不大。

觀乎真正足以支撐本地服務業的力量，一要靠貿易和準貿易部門蓬勃發展，以提升市民收入，二是靠香港作為國際大都會的集聚效應。從這個意義上，能有北上消費機會反倒有助於加強香港的集聚效應。試想想，北上消費的比重不斷增加，當大到可以把深圳的物價算進本地物價指數時，香港對中端人才的吸引力定必大增。

歸根究柢，服務業近年略顯蕭條，核心不在港人北上消費或內地訪客消費降級，而繫於香港經濟能否良性發展。長遠而言，端賴這座城市能否維持跟國際接軌的競爭優勢。

助中小企渡難關

既然北上消費並不會造成香港服務業空洞化的風險，那特區政府是否就可置之不理？早前Facebook上曾出現名為「全港店舖執笠結業消息關注組」的群組，據說成員超過30萬人，以致人多爆群。若香港真的出現大規模結業潮，不但對中小商家是嚴峻考驗，也會對就業問題造成不小衝擊。

眼下工商界有兩種聲音，一種是商家應努力提升產品品質及服務水平，既保住港人的胃和腳，同時吸引內地遊客的嘴和腿。另一種聲音則認為在微利年代，要商家短期內自我增值未免不切實際，冀望特區政府能採取措施予以保護。有網友呼籲政府每月派發消費券，或補貼瀕臨倒閉的小商家。

眾說紛紜，當局應如何取捨？筆者認為，特區政府對來自民間的救市呼聲縱使毋須有求必應，卻也不宜置之不理，更應該仔細調研，審慎評估粵港澳大灣區經濟融合對本港中小企業的影響，並在大數據和經濟學模型的基礎上，對比各種政策的有效性和可行度。當局若能在市場出現悲觀氣氛的時候，因勢利導，採取措施提振營商者信心，相信有望化危為機。

吳延暉教授
港大經管學院經濟學、管理及商業策略副教授

（本文同時於二零二四年五月八日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）