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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column

A Review of Development in Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau

9 Jan 2019
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海峽兩岸四地發展回顧

新年伊始,正是回顧過去展望將來的時機。筆者也不妨在此從以下三方面,就海峽兩岸和港澳四地整體形勢,作一簡單回顧。文章旨在為讀者扼要概括四地的情況,資料數據出處繁多,在此未能盡錄。

人口比例

四地之中,以中國大陸人口最多,數達13.9億,台灣2.4千萬,香港為7.4百萬,澳門則只有62.3萬。人口預期壽命以香港和澳門最長,分別是84.23歲和83.85歲,台灣以80.4歲居次,大陸則為76.25歲。這也符合一般印象:香港和澳門的人均收入最高,衞生條件最佳,所以人均壽命最長;而大陸在這些方面則較弱,人均壽命也就最短。

在性別比例方面,香港和澳門都出現陰盛陽衰的現象,男女比例分别為0.87和0.91;台灣基本上比例平衡,男女比率為0.99,近乎一男對一女。相反大陸卻是陽盛陰衰,1.06男對一女。這些數字亦與上述人均壽命數字吻合,既然香港和澳門人口預期壽命在四地中最長,而女性一般較男性長壽,女性在兩地人口中所佔比例自然也較高。

若單就2016年出生人口中的性別比例而言,四地同屬男盛女衰,即每一女嬰對一個以上男嬰,這也是全球普遍現象,或與基因有關。四地中這個比例以中國大陸最高,達1.15,遠高於2000至2016年期間全球1.07的平均值,香港的比例為1.12居次,而澳門及台灣的比例則分別為1.05及1.07。中國出生人口比例如此「失衡」,從2000年就已開始。1990到1999期間,其出生人口的平均男女比例為1.09,但從2000至2016年的平均值則增至1.18。這大概可歸因於內地政府的「一孩政策」,以及國內經濟發展帶來的醫學進步,以致選擇性生育應運而生。

一些經濟學家認為,中國出生人口比例失衡已造成宏觀經濟上的影響,例如失衡程度較高的地方,居民的儲蓄率也愈高,甚至足以解釋為何中國錄得貿易赤字等等。

我們亦可作出以下的簡單運算。以2016年為例,香港出生的女性總數為29,132,而大陸初生男嬰比女嬰的數目約多出1,322,963,如果其中2%來港娶同齡女子為妻,即會把她們全都娶光!

對外關係

在兩岸四地中,只有中國在聯合國擁有席位(大陸在1971年取代台灣,成為聯合國創始成員國)。但在國際上,台灣、香港、澳門仍與中國大陸一樣,屬於世界貿易組織的成員國(台灣以「中華台北」的名義參加)。台灣、香港及中國大陸都是亞洲開發銀行的成員,澳門則不是。大陸是世界衞生組織的成員;香港和澳門都不是世界衞生組織的成員。台灣雖然不是成員,但在具體事務上與世衞仍有合作,並且擔任世界衞生大會的觀察員。

現在與台灣有正式邦交的國家只有十來個,都是小國,但是台灣人出外旅遊卻比想像中容易。根據TravelFreedom.io旅遊網站(https://travelfreedom.io/ranking/passport/)的統計,全世界有145個國家及地區給予台灣人免簽證的待遇,給予香港和澳門同樣待遇的,則分別有164和134個國家及地區,而給予中國大陸的則只有68個。

與中國大陸有邦交的國家數目遠遠超過台灣,但是為什麼給中國人免簽證待遇的國家及地區,反而遠比台灣少呢?那些與中國建交的國家,是否但求實利,其實對大陸人民並不友好?筆者並不認為如此。原因其實很簡單,中國人口遠多於台灣,如果中國和台灣兩地不受歡迎份子的百分比是一樣的話,那麼中國的不守法者對這些外國國家所造成的破壞就遠大得多了,所以對大陸旅客作某程度上的限制,亦可算合理。

經濟發展

最後比較一下四地的經濟情況。2018年的數據既未出爐,且先檢視2017年四個地區的已考慮購買力平價(purchasing power parity)的人均國內生產總值(GDP per capita)。由於貨幣不同,必須把四地的人均國內生產總值換算成為同一貨幣,以資比較;但是同樣的產品在不同地方,若簡單根據市場上的外匯匯率計算,則或有所偏差。比如說理髮服務,在澳門的價錢就和在台灣有所不同。為免這一偏差,我們通過購買力平價的衡量方法加以換算。四地之中人均國內生產總值最低的是中國大陸,約為16,600美元,低於台灣的49,800美元和香港的61,000美元。四地之中最高的居然是澳門,達114,400美元,是香港的1.88倍,大陸的6.89倍!

雖然中國大陸的人均國內生產總值在四地中最低,卻一點也不容輕視,若通過購買力平價加以衡量,其實位居全球之首,超越美國,約佔世界六分之一。除此之外,世界銀行按不同國家的人均國民總收入(gross national income per capita)分類(有別於人均國內生產總值或購買力平價的計算方式,在此不贅),收入在3,956美元和12,235美元之間的國家被界定為中等收入偏上國家(high middle-income country),而中國在2017年的人均國民收入為8,690美元,即現已躋身中等收入偏上國家之列的上端;只要人均國民收入能保持每年5%的增長,約到2025年,就會超越中等收入偏上國家的界定上限,而成為發達國家,這勢將是一大驚人成就。

趙耀華 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院副教授

(本文同時於二零一九年一月九日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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