The Legend of Cointegration
INCEPTION OF IDEAS
NEW seminar series where innovation begins
Organized by Business Analytics Group of IIM
Professor Qiwei Yao
Professor of Statistics
Department of Statistics
The London School of Economics and Political Science
The term “cointegration” was coined by Clive Grange in early 1980 when he studied long-term equilibrium relationships among two or more non-stationary time series. Grange won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2003 for his work in this area.
In this talk we survey through a selection of the developments on cointegration, including Engle-Grange two-step method/error-correction models, Johansen’s method, nonlinear cointegration for two time series. We highlight the simple eigen-based method of Zhang, Robinson and Yao (2019, JASA, pp.916 –) under a much more general setting. We outline two open challenges: cointegration for spatial processes observed on an irregular grid, and nonlinear cointegration for multiple processes.