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Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
16Nov
Seminar Calendar, Information and Innovation Management

Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees

16 Nov 2026 | 10:30 a.m.— 11:30 a.m.
KK 1121, K. K. Leung Building, HKU
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SPEAKER

Professor Ruixuan Liu
Associate Professor
Department of Decisions, Operations and Technology
The Chinese University of Hong Kong

ABSTRACT
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) provide a class of flexible nonparametric regressions in machine learning. Their rich tree-based structure can generate non-Donsker classes of regression functions. We study posterior inference for the population mean under missing at random. We derive a new Bernstein-von Mises (BvM) theorem showing that even a one-step posterior based on BART and Bayesian-bootstrap reweighting retains a non-negligible bias term in the non-Donsker regime. To remove this term, we introduce RoBART, a posterior correction that adjusts each draw using pilot estimators of the outcome regression and propensity score. We prove a BvM theorem for the corrected posterior and develop a cross-fitted version using fold-specific posteriors. We provide primitive assumptions tailored to BART. We show that the posterior mean coincides exactly with the augmented inverse-probability-weighted (AIPW) estimator and with the corresponding double machine learning (DML) estimator under cross-fitting. RoBART therefore provides a posterior distribution with asymptotically valid uncertainty quantification around this well-established frequentist center. Simulations and an empirical illustration demonstrate competitive finite-sample performance relative to existing methods.
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Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
About Speaker
Professor Ruixuan Liu

Associate Professor | Department of Decisions, Operations and Technology | The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Robust Semiparametric Inference for Bayesian Additive Regression Trees
16 Nov 202610:30 a.m.— 11:30 a.m.
KK 1121, K. K. Leung Building, HKU
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