HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
  • 繁
  • 简
Type To Search
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
Type To Search
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
    • Overview
      • Message from the Dean
      • Vision & Mission
      • Milestones
      • Partnerships & Global Network
      • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
      • Rankings & Accreditations
      • Corporate Collaboration
    • Leadership
      • Faculty Management
      • International Advisory Council
    • Our Stories
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Portal
    • Campuses
  • Programmes
    • Undergraduate
    • Masters
      • MAA
      • MAcct
      • MCGRM
      • MEcon
      • MFWM
      • MFin
      • MFFinTech
      • MGM
      • MSAF
      • MSc(BA)
      • MScMktg
      • MWM
    • MBAs & EMBAs
      • MBA
      • IMBA
      • HKU EMBA
    • DBA
    • PhD
    • Executive Education
  • People
    • Faculty
    • Post-Doctoral Fellows
    • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
    • Research Postgraduate Students
    • Administration
  • Research
    • Thought Leadership
      • Latest Research Publications
      • HKEJ Column
      • FT Chinese Column
      • In the Media
    • Academic Areas
    • Faculty Members
    • Research Grants
    • Seminars & Conferences
      • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
    • Research Centres & Institutes
    • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
    • HKU Knowledge Exchange
    • HKU Scholars Hub
    • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
    • School News
    • In the Media
    • Press Release
  • Career
    • Recruit our Talents
    • Student Career Development
    • Career Opportunities
      • Faculty Recruitments
      • HKU Career Site

HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
The exchange rate in US-China trade deal

The exchange rate in US-China trade deal

22 Jan 2020
Share on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on WhatsappShare on LinkedInShare on Email
中美經濟貿易協議中的滙率

2020年伊始,最重要的國際事件,莫過於上周三中美雙方簽署第一階段經濟貿易協議(以下簡稱協議)。中美貿易戰持續了差不多兩年,期間經過了多番轉折,亦為全球經濟帶來了自金融海嘯以來最大的震盪。如今暫時叫停,避免戰況進一步惡化,即使協議內容受到各種質疑和批評,仍然受到多方面的歡迎。

中文版的協議文本長達80多頁,涵蓋了知識產權、技術轉移、農產品貿易、金融服務、滙率問題等各方面,每章的條文對中方、美方或雙方有一定的要求,唯獨有關宏觀經濟政策和滙率的條文則全部需要雙方同時遵守執行。但內容沒有什麼新意,主要是維持之前雙方在G20峰會的承諾、和符合國際貨幣基金的運作框架,例如不作競爭性貶值、避免操控滙率以阻礙國際收支的有效調整和得到不公平的競爭優勢等。

倉卒的政治決定

為了配合協議的順利簽署,美國政府在簽署前的兩天宣布中國不再是貨幣操縱國,不然在美國眼中,中國早已不符合協議的有關內容了。然而,美國在之前將貨幣操控國的標籤加於中國、和最近取消這個標籤,都是倉卒的政治考量,缺乏合理的經濟原因。

滙率的變化反映出背後的貨幣政策,但貨幣政策可以是針對內部經濟的情況,也可以是針對外貿或收支平衡。單看滙率的改變,並不容易判斷有關央行是否刻意操控滙率來提高對外的競爭力。美國在2015年推出的《貿易便利及貿易執行法》,比較客觀地列出界定其他國家操控本國貨幣兌美元滙率的三個準則:第一是在一年內對美國有200億美元的雙邊貿易盈餘;第二是在12個月內,有佔本地生產總值2%或更多的經常賬盈餘;第三是該國在12個月內起碼有6個月持久地、單方向地干預外滙市場、並在12個月內買入了佔本地生產總值2%的外滙。

上述三個條件中,中國只符合第一個,即對美國雙邊貿易順差多於200億美元,但由於中國經濟規模龐大,外貿盈餘總數少於本地生產總值的2%。同時,中國這幾年來也沒有持續買入外滙,證諸於外滙儲備存量穩定、並沒有不斷增加。但在去年8月初,中美貿易戰拳來腳往之際,特朗普宣布會將餘下3000億美元的中國產品徵收10%的關稅後,人民幣呈明顯弱勢,並於8月5日跌破兌美元7.0的心理關口,而特朗普亦於當天在記者招待會上宣布中國為貨幣操縱國,所持的法理依據是1988年內容相當籠統的《綜合貿易及競爭法》。按照這個法例,美國財政部長可以將一些經常賬總數盈餘、和對美國有貿易盈餘的國家,劃分為貨幣操縱國、並採取有關行動。如今才剛好三個月,中國的貨幣政策、外滙儲備等並有沒有明顯不同,但又回復非貨幣操控國的身份了。即使是美國評論員,也有不少認為美國政府的有關做法,純屬政治操作。有關外國的貨幣政策、及是否操控貨幣兌美元的滙率,美國財政部每半年發表一份報告,詳細分析和解釋他們的看法。但經過這次對人民幣態度的隨意和反覆後,那些半年報的公信力便打了折扣。

簡單的商人觀點

滙率政策在貿易戰中有一定的位置,主要是可以部分抵消關稅的影響。美國對中國產品徵收關稅,直接使美國消費者付出較高的價格,因而減少從中國的進口。特朗普多次大言不慚地說,美國對中國產品的關稅,不是美國消費者而是中國方面支付的,這無論在理論和實證上都是錯的。最近聯儲局紐約分局和美國國家經濟研究局都分別有論文證實這一點,並被美國媒體廣泛報道。若美國消費者不需要付出較高的價格,便不會減少從中國進口了。不過,若人民幣同時貶值,會在若干程度上減少美國消費者的美元支出,部分抵消了關稅的影響。

但是,嚴格的說,貨幣貶值對關稅的抵消作用可能是短暫的,因為貨幣貶值會或多或少導致價格上升,逐漸減弱了貨幣貶值對出口的作用。

也許特朗普以過於簡單的觀點來看經濟,以為經濟運作和做生意一樣,能把產品賣出去、就是對自己有利,反過來就是對自己不利。所以他認為美國對中國的貿易逆差,對美國不是好事,差不多等同於中國從美國偷去了有價值的東西。同樣,他也經常投訴外國貨幣的弱勢,認為會幫助促銷外國產品到美國,並反過來抱怨聯儲局沒有進一步弱化美元。商人的觀點只集中於賣方這一邊,買方與自己有利益衝突,自然不需考慮他們的利益。但從政府或經濟事務決策者的角度出發,理應全面地考慮供應和需求雙方。這或許是商人出身的特朗普,在經濟事務上常常語出驚人的原因。

在約兩年的貿易戰中,關稅是美國最主要的武器。中美簽署了第一階段的協議後, 中國仍然有大批商品面對美國高額的關稅,而美國亦以此作為第二階段談判的籌碼。所以美國很關注人民幣的滙率政策,不希望中國以人民幣的貶值來應付美國的關稅。

然而,並沒有跡象中國會在貿易戰中以人民幣貶值為對策。滙率政策與貨幣政策是同一個硬幣的兩邊。中國的貨幣政策目前處於一個比較微妙的境況,一來是經濟下行需要適量的流動資金,同時又須避免信貸過度膨脹引致進一步的壞賬,因而需要適當地引導資金的流向。與此同時,貨幣政策的框架仍在進一步建立,利率機制仍在改良之中。在這些大前提下,需要的是滙率的穩定。剛簽署的協議的有關部分(第五章),正可幫助提供有關的宏觀環境,因為無論有沒有貿易戰,中國都會按有關內容來發展貨幣和滙率機制。協議簽署後,也不用應付美國在貨幣操控上的挑戰了。

 

陸炎輝 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院榮譽副教授
(本文同時於二零二零年一月廿二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)​

Simple solutions to serious problems15 Jan 2020
Overcome adversity in the new year29 Jan 2020
Trending
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Yet Another  Policy Blunder
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Yet Another Policy Blunder
Dr. Y. F. LUK
Is America's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' a masterpiece or a misstep?According to Dr Y.F. Luk, Honorary Associate Professor at HKU Business School, this new policy comes at a steep price. He explained that while the 870-page bill makes tax cuts permanent, it pays for them by slashing vital medical and food subsidies.
9 Jul 2024
Faculty
Stablecoins: A Trust Anchor in the Sea of Digital Currency
Stablecoins: A Trust Anchor in the Sea of Digital Currency
Dr. Yifei ZHANG
In recent years, the global financial markets have been turbulent, with Bitcoin’s price fluctuations resembling a rollercoaster—attracting investors in pursuit of high returns. However, in this vast digital ocean, most enterprises and investors are not seeking adventure, but rather a safe haven for investment.
2 Jul 2025
Faculty
Dr Y F Luk_0367
About Author
Dr. Y. F. LUK

Honorary Associate Professor

Tags
Economics
Finance
Sign up for upcoming news and events
LinkedIn WeChat Instagram Facebook Weibo Twitter YouTube

©2025, HKU Business School. All Rights Reserved. | Privacy Policy | Web Accessibility Statement