HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
  • 繁
  • 简
Type To Search
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
Type To Search
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
    • Overview
      • Message from the Dean
      • Vision & Mission
      • Milestones
      • Partnerships & Global Network
      • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
      • Rankings & Accreditations
      • Corporate Collaboration
    • Leadership
      • Faculty Management
      • International Advisory Council
    • Our Stories
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Portal
    • Campuses
  • Programmes
    • Undergraduate
    • Masters
      • MAA
      • MAcct
      • MCGRM
      • MEcon
      • MFWM
      • MFin
      • MFFinTech
      • MGM
      • MSAF
      • MSc(BA)
      • MScMktg
      • MWM
    • MBAs & EMBAs
      • MBA
      • IMBA
      • HKU EMBA
    • DBA
    • PhD
    • Executive Education
  • People
    • Faculty
    • Post-Doctoral Fellows
    • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
    • Research Postgraduate Students
    • Administration
  • Research
    • Thought Leadership
      • Latest Research Publications
      • HKEJ Column
      • FT Chinese Column
      • In the Media
    • Academic Areas
    • Faculty Members
    • Research Grants
    • Seminars & Conferences
      • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
    • Research Centres & Institutes
    • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
    • HKU Knowledge Exchange
    • HKU Scholars Hub
    • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
    • School News
    • In the Media
    • Press Release
  • Career
    • Recruit our Talents
    • Student Career Development
    • Career Opportunities
      • Faculty Recruitments
      • HKU Career Site

HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
The 2-Percent Inflation Target and US Inflation

The 2-Percent Inflation Target and US Inflation

1 May 2024
Share on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on WhatsappShare on LinkedInShare on Email
百分之二通脹目標與美國通脹

 

這兩天又是美國聯儲局議息的日子。從2022年3月到2023年7月的短短16個月內,聯儲局持續提高政策利率以遏抑40多年未有的高通脹,累計加息5.25厘。至去年11月,以消費物價指數(CPI)計算的年通脹率,已由2022年6月的9.06%高峰下降至3.14%。若以聯儲局關注的個人消費支出物價指數(PCE)計算,去年10月至12月的按月增幅均差不多為零。市場樂見遏抑通脹見成效,預期2024年將進入減息周期,甚至有估計認為全年會減息6次。

然而,在過去3個月,美國通脹不但沒有進一步下滑,反而輕微上升。本年1月至3月的CPI年通脹率分別為3.09%、3.15%和3.48%,PCE指數按月增幅又重回0.4%、0.3%和0.3%,反映通脹在這個水平的黏性。聯儲局主席鮑威爾及其他官員均表示,需等更多數據確定通脹放緩才減息,市場亦預期今年減息次數約為兩次。

聯儲局的貨幣政策目標是達到最高就業水平和價格穩定,即所謂雙重使命(dual mandate)。最高就業水平隨着經濟和勞動力等多方面因素而變,難以定下數字目標,但美國的失業率在新冠疫情後已大幅降落,過去兩年都低於4%,不是目前主要考慮。減息與否及有關幅度和次數,還得看能否達至以PCE計算的2%通脹目標。

西方央行以2%作為通脹目標,始於1989年的紐西蘭。這之前數年間,紐西蘭經歷了兩位數字及波動很大的通脹,央行需要遏抑通脹,自然成為社會共識。當通脹下降至10%,紐西蘭財政部長在接受電視訪問時說,他認為理想的通脹為1%。由於一般量度的CPI通脹率會稍微高估了真正通脹率,若後者的理想水平為1%,那官方可把CPI的通脹目標定在2%。2%通脹目標應運而生,其後英國、加拿大及其他經濟體相繼效尤,美國卻在20多年後才明確採納2%通脹為貨幣政策目標。

前聯儲局主席伏爾克(Paul Volcker)在上世紀八十年代初不惜經濟衰退,也以高息對抗通脹,使聯邦基金利率一度升至20厘。當時並沒有明確的通脹目標,不好判斷什麼時候「息」可而止。伏爾克1987年離任時,美國通脹率仍有4%。隨後的格林斯平(Alan Greenspan)曾研究是否採用2%通脹目標,但因研究結果顯示會帶來經濟衰退而作罷。另外,有研究員審閱2000年至2007年聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的會議紀錄,推斷其中隱含的與會者通脹目標為1.5%。金融海嘯後,時任聯儲局主席貝南奇(Ben Bernanke)才在2012年正式以2%通脹目標為聯儲局雙重任命之一。到2020年,新冠疫情帶來經濟衰退,加上美國通脹長期低於2%,聯儲局遂把2%目標改為平均2%,以增加實施較寬鬆貨幣政策的空間。換句話說,若目前聯儲局有信心通脹繼續下降,便可在通脹高於2%時啟動減息。

2%通脹目標的訂立,並非基於嚴謹的經濟分析或實證研究計算出來,但可以有些辯解。首先是通脹既然不討好,為何不把目標定在零通脹?一個原因是上文提及的通脹統計數字有向上偏差,即使官方通脹率是2%,實際通脹仍會低於2%。這些偏差可稍為糾正,如使用PCE取代CPI。惟更重要的原因是,若通脹目標低於2%,在經濟衰退時,央行便沒有減息空間。通脹會導致市場產生預期通脹,而預期通脹會拉高借貸利率,因此經濟在長期均衡狀態時,較高通脹會帶來較高的名義利率,央行定下較高的通脹目標,便可制定較高的政策利率,在經濟衰退時會有較大減息空間。此外,無論是CPI或PCE,物價指數代表了眾多商品和服務的加權平均,若這個指數維持零改變,背後必然有些價格上升、有些下降,後者表示某些行業或企業和有關僱員已面臨困境。保持輕微通脹,等於加上一些經濟運作的潤滑劑。進一步說,零通脹目標容易使經濟陷入通縮,而通縮的負面影響遠大於低程度通脹。

反過來問,2%通脹目標會否太低?好些經濟學者認為2%確實太低,有些更具體指出4%是更佳選擇,包括前國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)首席經濟師和麻省理工學院教授布蘭查德(Olivier Blanchard)、奧巴馬任總統時的白宮經濟顧問委員會主席和哈佛大學教授弗曼(Jason Furman),以及諾貝爾經濟學獎得主斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)。他們的主要論點是,如上面提及低通脹目標限制了央行下調利率刺激經濟的空間。舉個例子,若果以簡單的泰勒法則(Taylor rule)為標準來計算,在2008年金融海嘯後,最優化的聯邦基金利率大約是負5厘,但受到零利率的限制,聯儲局只能訴諸於量化寬鬆等非傳統貨幣政策。此外,雖然通脹不利於經濟,不過觀乎一些通脹率3%或4%的經濟體,情況並不那麼惡劣。無論雙方的論點如何,在目前打擊通脹的情況下,都不應修改2%的目標,否則會為金融市場帶來混亂,並影響聯儲局的誠信和日後貨幣政策的運作。事實上,建議改為4%的論者也指出,應該在經濟好景時才作修改。

基於美國本年首季通脹走勢,一般估計聯儲局這兩天會議不會減息,甚至預期減息會延後至第三或第四季。美元和其他貨幣的息差持續甚至擴大,助長美元強勢。據報道,約兩周前IMF和世界銀行的春季會議中,討論氣氛都是看好美元。看好美元的預期,帶動資金流向美元資產,進一步推高美元。美元持續高企,對全球經濟影響深遠,那些欠外債的發展中國家自然不好受,而美元升值也增加美國在國際市場的購買力,美國企業及消費者繼續購買包括中國等外國的產品,增加美國貿易赤字。若年底總統大選由特朗普勝出,新一輪及升級版的貿易戰大有可能出現。

說到美國總統選舉,當紐西蘭央行定下2%通脹目標時,除了應付通脹外,還有更深一層意義,就是使貨幣政策遵從一個簡單清晰的運作規則,從而減少行政部門的干擾,保持央行貨幣政策的獨立性。上星期《華爾街日報》報道,特朗普競選顧問團草擬及討論若特朗普當選的政策建議,其中一項是聯儲局的利率政策須諮詢總統。這或許是選舉前的訊息戰,但特朗普按個人利益及喜好批評聯儲局,並施加壓力改變聯儲局相對獨立的政策,則早有前科。他在2016年競選時,批評時任聯儲局主席耶倫減息創造寬鬆的經濟環境,有利於同屬民主黨的希拉莉競選。他上任後以鮑威爾替代耶倫,但隨即批評鮑威爾加息影響他任內的經濟表現。美國政府的財政金融一直都在透支未來,但仍然有市場熟悉的程序和規則,未至於要在短期內埋單。然而國際和國內政治的迅速演變,加添了無限的不可知數。

 

陸炎輝教授
港大經管學院榮譽副教授

(本文同時於二零二四年五月一日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

Behavioural Economics on Risk Aversion and Gambling24 Apr 2024
Will the Cross-border Consumption Trend Hollow Out Hong Kong’s Economy?8 May 2024
Trending
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Yet Another  Policy Blunder
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act: Yet Another Policy Blunder
Dr. Y. F. LUK
Is America's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' a masterpiece or a misstep?According to Dr Y.F. Luk, Honorary Associate Professor at HKU Business School, this new policy comes at a steep price. He explained that while the 870-page bill makes tax cuts permanent, it pays for them by slashing vital medical and food subsidies.
9 Jul 2024
Faculty
Stablecoins: A Trust Anchor in the Sea of Digital Currency
Stablecoins: A Trust Anchor in the Sea of Digital Currency
Dr. Yifei ZHANG
In recent years, the global financial markets have been turbulent, with Bitcoin’s price fluctuations resembling a rollercoaster—attracting investors in pursuit of high returns. However, in this vast digital ocean, most enterprises and investors are not seeking adventure, but rather a safe haven for investment.
2 Jul 2025
Faculty
Dr Y F Luk_0367
About Author
Dr. Y. F. LUK

Honorary Associate Professor

Sign up for upcoming news and events
LinkedIn WeChat Instagram Facebook Weibo Twitter YouTube

©2025, HKU Business School. All Rights Reserved. | Privacy Policy | Web Accessibility Statement