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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column

Creating win-win outcomes with a suitable auction design

1 May 2019
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招標設計得宜 買賣兩方雙贏

近來一手住宅單位以招標方式發售,蔚然成風,做法備受爭議。與公開發售不同,招標不是一般買家能掌握的機制。公開發售先由發展商發出價單,然後由買家從中按次序揀選單位,最後決定入市與否。揀樓和入市當然是重大決定,但純屬買家的個人決定,不能假手於人。

招標則由買家各自向發展商出價;收到買家出價後,發展商才決定出售或收回單位(即流標),或延長截標期限。在招標過程中,買家要作出種種盤算,包括預計出價是否高於其他買家、發展商會否收回單位或延長招標期限等;往往非一般買家所能應付。有些發展商更採用即日招標、即日截標模式,把招標時間縮短至3小時,買家要在短時間內作出複雜而重大的決定。部分買家為了爭取中標機會,唯有盡量提價入標。很明顯,招標對買家十分不公平,做法有很大改善空間。

扭轉濫用風氣

第一,發展商應逐一列出招標單位底價,讓有意入標的買家篩選單位入標。這亦可促使發展商提供以下保證:如某單位入標價為其底價或以上,就必定會出售該單位;如某單位所有入標價皆低於其底價,發展商才有權不出售該單位。換言之,釐定底價足以防止發展商任意製造流標,從而增加招標透明度。

現時《一手住宅物業銷售條例》規定,發展商須在公開發售前最少3日公布價單,但此規定不適用於招標發售,是明顯的漏洞。政府應立即修例,規定發展商在招標發售前最少3 日,列出招標單位名單及各單位底價,防止發展商濫用招標(如即日招標、即日截標模式),而剝奪買家3日揀樓和考慮入市的時間。

第二,政府還應規定最短截標時限,讓買家有足夠時間準備,以便決定入標價。

第三,發展商應清楚列明截標時限(不能少於最短截標時限)。如在截標前,所收某單位入標價為其底價或以上,發展商必須出售該單位;如所收入標價皆低於其底價,則發展商才有權延長截標時限。要是延長時限,發展商就應給予已入標買家足夠時間選擇退標與否,或修改其入標價。如此一來,可防止發展商任意延長截標時限,也足以提高招標透明度。

上述建議旨在防止發展商濫用招標,買家不必再任人魚肉,為求中標而盡量提價入標。此外,招標方式本身也有問題,其中包括:即使買家有充分時間考慮,能冷靜分析發展商的招標名單和底價,然而要預計其他買家的入標價毫不容易,導致決定入標價位依然十分困難。買家的入標價互相牽連,實在是一個雞與雞蛋的問題。

知所進退之道

以上雞與雞蛋是關乎「首價招標」(first-price auction)的問題,而首價招標是最常用的招標機制,以價高者得為原則,由最高價者支付其出價成交(大前提是最高價高於賣家底價)。要解決此問題,必須改動首價招標機制。1996年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主William Vickrey,就曾提出一個微妙改動:招標依然是價高者得,但成交價由最高價改為次高價(大前提是次高價高於賣家底價),成為「次價招標」(second-price auction),又名「Vickrey招標」。

次價招標和首價招標表面上分別不大,但Vickrey 從中發現以下驚人結果:次價招標讓所有買家只需按各自真正價值出價,無需理會其他買家如何出價。要理解Vickrey這一發現不難,當中邏輯可用以下兩段文字說明(無需數學)。

首先,買家以自己的真正價值出價而中標,即他的出價是最高價,而他所支付的只是次高價(此為次價招標特點),便能得到較高的真正價值。如果他提高出價,他還是中標,還是支付次高價,結果一樣。如果他降低出價,他可能仍然中標(即出價仍然高於次高價),仍然支付次高價,結果一樣;他也可能落標(即出價低於次高價),得不到任何價值。由此可見,買家不以自己的真正價值出價,只會弄巧反拙,甚至反勝為敗。

其次,買家以自己的真正價值出價而落空,即他的出價/真正價值低於最高價,而得不到任何價值。如果他降低出價,他還是落空,結果一樣。如果他提高出價,他可能仍然落空(即出價仍然低於最高價),結果一樣;他也可能中標(即他的出價創新高,高於原本最高價),原本最高價變成他支付的次高價,但他的真正價值低於原本最高價,結果得不償失。同一道理,買家不以自己的真正價值出價,只會弄巧反拙。

Vickrey把首價招標改為次價招標,便為買家解決極難的出價問題。原來次價招標並非Vickrey所創,早已在郵票拍賣範疇沿用多年,而且行之有效。近年興起網上拍賣,也以次價招標為主。次價招標能否取代首價招標成為主流?「積極有為」的政府可視之為一項挑戰,甚或一個機遇,積極推動次價招標,為買家化解出價難題。

另一方面,發展商可主動採用次價招標,讓中標買家只需支付次高價(低於他的出價),便能購入心儀單位。次價招標的設計發揮「留有餘地」智慧,是一個「不貪心」機制,形象正面。如果發展商主動採用次價招標,定可改善其「賺到盡」負面形象。

除了改善形象,次價招標對發展商有更實質的好處。2007年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主Roger Myerson推斷,若賣家志在增加預期收入(expected revenue),最佳機制就是次價招標,加上一個「合適」底價的組合。(「合適」底價可用(大)數據分析推算,不在本文討論範圍之内。理解Myerson的研究結果需要一些基本的微積分和概率論,也超越本文範圍。)俗語所謂「貪字得個貧」,原來「留有餘地」真的可讓發展商創造雙贏局面。

程騰歡 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院副教授
(本文同時於二零一九年五月一日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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