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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column

“Confirmation Bias”: an illustration from the political analogy of a poetic advertisement

21 Aug 2019
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「確認偏見」——由黃台之瓜說起

李嘉誠先生日前以「一個香港市民」的名義,在多份報章頭版刊登兩款全版廣告。一款廣告為「正如我之前講過:『黃台之瓜,何堪再摘。』」;另一款廣告正中位置印有反暴力標誌,上方是「最好的因可成最壞的果」,右邊寫「愛中國 · 愛香港 · 愛自己」,左邊寫「愛自由 · 愛包容 · 愛法治」,下方是「以愛之義 止息怒憤」。

是次報章廣告為李嘉誠對近期香港局勢首度公開表態,即時引起社會各界及市民的不同解讀,第一款尤甚。如反修例者認為第一款廣告的對象是政府,把李先生的表態當作為他們發聲,請政府克制,別對激進示威者趕盡殺絕。對立一方的解讀卻正好相反,認為第一款廣告的對象是激進示威者,李先生希望激進示威者不要再將抗爭升級,以免政府作出極端回應。

李嘉誠很快透過發言人回應社會的迴響,表示刊登兩款廣告,是因為目前香港形勢複雜,難以用單一語言或溝通方式回應,形容「應以何身得度者,即現何身而為之說法」。至於對政府有何看法,發言人形容,現時年輕人給政府的聲音和訊息震耳欲聾,政府已在絞盡腦汁。在談到對年輕人的看法時,發言人呼籲:「不要讓今天的激情,成為明天的遺憾」。

減偏見縮分歧

本文並非解讀李先生的廣告和回應,只是藉此帶出不同人對同一事件有不同的解讀,其實十分普遍;此現象在行為經濟學上稱為「確認偏見」(confirmation bias)。「確認偏見」的成因之一是模棱兩可的信息,可作不同的解讀,用以支持各自的信念。上述「黃台之瓜」廣告就是個好例子,不但因信息模棱兩可而無助收窄分歧,更因「確認偏見」,令分歧進一步加深。

政府在「反修例」風波中雖然讓步,但堅持只「暫緩」修訂《逃犯條例》草案,而決不按照法律清晰地「撤回」草案,以致回應變得模糊,無助收窄與反對陣營彼此之間的分歧。如果政府依法「撤回」草案,相信有利於收窄雙方分歧。

當然,「確認偏見」不是那麽容易消除,因為它還有兩大成因。第一,人們往往對與自己信念相反的信息不以為然,卻樂於接受與一己信念相同的信息。例如反修例者不在意建制派媒體和社交網絡的資訊,相反建制派的注意力卻集中在這些資訊上。換句話說,建制派接收政府信息易,反修例者接收政府信息難。要處理相關問題,政府一方面須向反修例者加強宣傳、溝通和對話(技術上不難,視乎政府是否願意付出而已);另一方面,政府和建制派須承認自己也有「確認偏見」,從而作出糾正。

「確認偏見」的第二個成因,就是人們往往對接受(不單是接收)與信念相反和相同的信息抱持雙重標準;兩者之間,相反的標準遠高於相同的標準。舉例來說,建制派接受「暫緩」修例和「撤回」草案差不多,因為特首林鄭月娥說它們的效果差不多,他們便相信如此;反修例者的標準遠高於此,甚至要求特首「完全撤回」草案,才算符合他們的標準。

要處理相關問題,特首須檢討她的回應有否足夠說服力。到目前為止,特首還在逃避她是否有權「撤回」草案的問題。到底這是法律問題抑或政治問題?如果是法律問題,律政司司長鄭若驊應該可以給市民一個肯定的答案,讓特首可以依法回應「撤回」草案的訴求。若然是政治問題,特首應趁機解釋清楚,讓公眾明瞭如何正確理解「一國兩制」。

避免雙重標準

反對聲音的另一訴求是成立獨立調查委員會,特首的回應同樣欠缺說服力。國務院港澳辦和中央政府駐港聯絡辦8月7日在深圳舉行香港局勢座談會。消息指,港澳辦主任張曉明在會上表示,在事件平息後則可以考慮成立獨立調查委員會。既然張主任也認為可以考慮成立獨立委員會,特首為何仍是一口拒絕,抹煞成立獨立委員會的可能性?張主任在座談會開場發言時說:「中央高度關注香港局勢,正從戰略等角度研判事件⋯⋯」希望特首也從戰略角度回應訴求,改善回應,提高說服力,以化解現時僵局。

糾正「確認偏見」有助收窄雙方分歧,然而究竟有何妙法?上文提到,政府須加強宣傳、溝通和對話,讓對方取得政府的信息;但接收不等於接受,政府務必加強說服力,信息才會被接納。更重要的是,政府的信息一定要清晰,若模棱兩可,徒添不同解讀,讓雙方把信息各自解讀為支持己方的信念,彼此間的分歧只會愈來愈大。

另一方面,政府和建制派也須自我糾正「確認偏見」,走出自己的安舒區,聆聽非建制派媒體和社交網絡聲音;但光是聆聽絕不足夠,政府還須克服雙重標準,別要把接受非建制派意見的標準,定得遠高於對建制派意見的標準。若信息有模糊之處,政府和建制派應該主動澄清,而不是任由別人隨意解讀信息,自欺欺人。縱然這些建議都是說易行難,但收窄分歧從來不易,政府必須身體力行,只說不做實在意義全無。

歸根究柢,收窄分歧倚仗雙方的付出。反修例者除了要努力糾正政府的「確認偏見」,也得努力通過進行自省而自我糾正:是否有偏聽、偏看?對政府和建制派是否持有雙重標準?是否任意把信息解讀為對己有利?是否嚴人寬己?

套用李嘉誠先生所登一款廣告模式,謹此以八字作結:「嚴以律己,寬以待人」。

程騰歡 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院副教授
(本文同時於二零一九年八月二十一日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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