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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
Beware of the gray rhino

Beware of the gray rhino

4 Nov 2020
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犀牛出沒注意

2007年,正當美國發生的金融海嘯急速演變之際,時任衍生工具交易員兼作家塔利伯(Nassim Nicholas Taleb)的著作《黑天鵝效應》(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable)面世。「黑天鵝」一詞,是指一些出現概率非常低,事前無從估計,但影響極為巨大的事件。作者認為影響世界的許多大事,其實都是黑天鵝事件,並批評學術界和風險管理的專家,往往忽略概率分布中極端可能性的重要性。當時百年一遇的金融海嘯,正是一次黑天鵝事件,該書出版合時,自然洛陽紙貴。

灰犀牛的威力

2016年美國女作家渥克(Michele Wucker)出版的《灰犀牛》(The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore)一書,則指出許多我們認為是黑天鵝的事件,事出之前其實有跡可尋,亦每每有人提出及時的警告。這些問題極可能發生,且其重大威脅又備受忽略,作者稱之為「灰犀牛」,因為它體型龐大,平時動作緩慢,離遠亦能清楚看見,應有足夠時間迴避。

根據渥克所言,倘若我們不幸被灰犀牛襲擊,那一定是自身有些事情做得不好,初時視而不見,沒有戒心,即使後來有人提出警告,我們也予以否定。然而,對於灰犀牛問題我們有能力解決,這與塔利伯所強調的黑天鵝性質截然不同。

渥克這部著作在中國內地一紙風行,根據亞馬遜網站介紹,它被稱為是對內地政策領域影響最深的一本書,在百度搜尋該書,也會找到無數的帖文,其熱門程度可見一斑。

作者財經記者出身,交遊廣闊,因此書中有許多故事以及自身經歷,由報道阿根廷債務危機到參與北極圈研究會議,以至出席多哈世界經濟論壇等等,作者都以第一身娓娓道來,讀來一點也不沉悶。作者認為我們受到灰犀牛來襲,不幸受重創的原因,大概可以分為兩類。第一類是人類不善於對未來作出預估(但又沒有自知之明!),以及人類行為的一些盲點,包括肯定偏見(affirmative bias)、近況偏見(availability bias)和確認偏見(confirmation bias),等等。第二類原因,則關乎制度,譬如決策者與持份者利益不一致。

對於上述分類,筆者大致上同意,並在這裏提出一些相關要點,供《灰犀牛》一書讀者參考。

瑜中有瑕

第一,渥克選取了大量不同的案例和材料,優點是豐富,缺點是零碎。筆者認為,作者如果能夠通過幾個案例,做出較為深度的比較,從而歸納出核心的地方,會更容易閱讀,也更有說服力。因此,書中歸納出來的重點是否都適用於所有案例,作者並沒有說明清楚。例子太多,就難以逐一深入討論,我也很懷疑有誰會對這麼多種類的事情一一深入了解,這無疑削弱了書中論點的說服力。

舉個例子,作者說到人類在面對灰犀牛時,可能會對正確的警惕採取視而不見的態度;她引述公元前五世紀波斯皇帝薛西斯拒絕顧問的勸告,毅然出兵攻打希臘大敗的故事。然而,沒有哪個顧問是永遠正確的,大家想想今天的許多學術權威,即使對同一件事也往往有完全相反的看法就知道了。薛西斯錯,我們認為他的顧問對,這只是事後的判斷而已。對於一個謹慎的讀者,是很難要求他輕易同意作者對這段歷史的詮釋。

第二,有些灰犀牛事件在萌芽之時就被成功解決了,因此也就不會加以記載。作者在自己的研究中,只着眼於灰犀牛造成的破壞,分析有欠全面,好比我們看到一個人晚上在家玩電玩,就指摘他不去上班,而沒有注意到他白天上班的可能性一樣。此外,當我們對A問題處理得不好的時候,也許是因為把力量放在處理更嚴重、影響更深遠的B問題上,只知責備我們處理A問題不夠妥善,就是偏頗,有欠公允。作者提到許多人類的盲點,如過分樂觀等;反過來說,也許正因為這些偏見,才令許多灰犀牛消失於萌芽狀態之中。

第三,金融海嘯被視為黑天鵝,筆者要為此說一句公道話。雖然渥克指出,美國的金融海嘯甚至都不能稱為黑天鵝,又列舉出之前幾年已有專家提出了警告,但筆者認為這並不足以否定金融海嘯是黑天鵝的判斷,原因有三。第一,這些專家一般都不會只講一面的,一定是「一方面如何如何……另一方面如何如何」;即使有人提出過警告,也不等於此人就認定風險極大。第二,任何時候都可能會有人杞人憂天,儘管有人事先提出過警告,並不能否定後來的發展就不是黑天鵝。第三(也是最重要的原因),我們說金融海嘯是黑天鵝,應該是就它的巨大規模而言,筆者並沒有注意到有任何具份量的人,曾事先預估到金融海嘯即將來臨。

犀牛早現蹤跡

《灰犀牛》作者在書中回憶到她念大學時,讀過法國劇作家尤涅斯科(Eugene Ionesco)的超現實主義話劇《犀牛》。故事是這樣的:在法國的一個小鎮,某天發生了奇怪的事情,有些人變成了犀牛,看到的人都視而不見,慢慢地他們也變成了犀牛,擴展到其他地方。有人提出警告,甚至奔走呼號,其他人卻無動於衷,覺得與己無關,非常迅速地他們也都變成了犀牛,最後只剩下3人,他們都是一直以來最努力不懈,奔走呼號的人。其中一個說:「我不能失去我的朋友和工作!」他也變成了犀牛!剩下一男一女,男的跟女的說:「我們離開這裏吧!」女的想了良久道:「不用了,我都變成犀牛好了!」人類就這樣滅絕了!劇作家所謂的犀牛其實就是法西斯主義。人們予以姑息,造成歷史的大錯。渥克以此警告我們,對於已經出現的灰犀牛視而不見的嚴重後果。

《灰犀牛》這本書,或有不足的地方,不過哪怕只是書名得以家喻戶曉,使得我們有所警惕,這本身就已是一項重大的貢獻。

在我們的世界,灰犀牛其實俯拾即是。舉例說,美國的極度貧富懸殊和兩黨之間意識形態的分歧,使得社會極度撕裂,而長期超低利率又使得在面對新困難時愈來愈沒有迴轉的空間。歐洲則有移民問題,成員國之間對財政紀律亦有分歧。國際上有中美的「新冷戰」,冷戰甚至可能演變成熱戰。全球則面對全球暖化帶來的影響,還有就是人工智能對人類的工作、自主性以至存在意義帶來的威脅。這僅僅是部分能夠清楚看見的灰犀牛,它們更有可能變成意想不到的黑天鵝呢!

趙耀華 港大經管學院副教授

(本文同時於二零二零年十一月四日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄。)

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