The relationships between government policy, economic growth and financial markets have been a long-standing and challenging question in economic and finance. While the traditional researches mainly focus on the effect from a particular fiscal or monetary policy to the economy, Dr. Yang Liu, Assistant Professor in Finance, HKU Business School and Dr. Ivan Shaliastovich, Associate Professor in Finance, Wisconsin School of Business have taken a novel approach in their recent research by considering the real-time public assessments of the presidential job performance in 49 years, providing a more comprehensive and in-depth analysis to evaluate the influence of favourable policy to the local economy.
- Ph.D., University of Pennsylvania
- B.A., Fudan University
Dr. Yang Liu joined The University of Hong Kong as Assistant Professor of Finance in 2017. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of Pennsylvania, and his B.A. in Economics from Fudan University.
His research interests span asset pricing, macro-finance and international finance. He has won the 2018 Annual Conference in International Finance Best Paper Award and the Cubist Systematic Strategies PHD Candidate Award for Outstanding Research by Western Finance Association. He has been a visiting scholar at the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and was a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Asset Pricing
- International Finance
- “Volatility, Intermediaries, and Exchange Rate”
(with Xiang Fang), Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
- “Government Policy Approval and Exchange Rate”
(with Ivan Shaliastovich), Journal of Financial Economics, forthcoming
- “Volatility Risk Pass-Through”
(with Ricardo Colacito, Mariano M. Croce, and Ivan Shaliastovich), Review of Financial Studies, forthcoming
For details, please visit www.yangliuresearch.com.
Measures of US government policy approval are strongly related to persistent fluctuations in the dollar value. Contemporaneous correlations between approval ratings and the dollar approach 50% against advanced economy currencies. High approval ratings further forecast a decline in the dollar risk premium several years ahead and are associated with a persistent increase in economic growth and a reduction in economic volatility. We provide an illustrative model to interpret our empirical evidence. In the model, policy valuations (approvals) are forward-looking and increase at times of high expected policy-related growth and low policy-related uncertainty, which are times of a strong dollar and low dollar risk premium.