Ever mindful of the impression the Pearl of the Orient gives to the outside world, Hong Kong people naturally pay close attention to all sorts of international league tables. What’s most encouraging is that, in a tiny place like Hong Kong, local higher-education institutions fare impressively in various global university rankings, rivalling top universities in Europe and the US in academic performance. While Hongkongers are relishing these achievements, an education league table focusing on English language skills is hardly in the public eye.

According to the EF English Proficiency Index published in late 2023, among the surveyed 113 countries and regions (excluding the UK, the US, Canada, and Australia), Hong Kong ranks 29th and is in 4th place among 23 Asian countries and regions, lagging far behind Singapore, which ranks 2nd on the global list and top in Asia. In the Index, the SAR also trails behind the Philippines, which ranks 20th worldwide and 2nd in Asia, as well as Malaysia, which ranks 25th worldwide and 3rd in Asia (see 【Note 1】).

To Hong Kong, once the crown jewel of the Commonwealth and now striving to be a leading international metropolis, the above results are of course less than ideal. What is most worrying is that English proficiency among the 18–20 age group has been sliding and that is also my impression as a teacher at The University of Hong Kong. Among undergraduates studying economics, business administration, and finance, many local students keep quiet in class and even struggle to convey their meaning in assignments due to low English proficiency. As it appears, they fall behind international students and some counterparts from the Mainland.

Whether an individual can be regarded as talented or a city as a mecca of some sort cannot be determined by English proficiency alone. Among developed economies other than Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan stand out as two distinctly different examples in Asia.

“Singlish”: one of a kind

I am not the first to say tongue in cheek that Singaporeans have their localized way of speaking English. Nor is such a comment meant to be derogatory at all. In an episode of “The Story of English”, a popular Emmy-winning TV series launched by the BBC in 1986, the future of the English language in Asia was explored and Singaporean English was referred to as “Singlish”. Finding this a disgrace, many Singaporeans were much offended. In a public speech in 1999, Lee Kuan Yew, the founding prime minister of Singapore, stressed the importance of speaking and writing standard English so that “we can understand the world and the world can understand us” (see 【Note 2】).

The English attempt to take the mickey out of the use of Singlish galvanized Singaporeans into action to improve their English standards. So government officials were required to attend training courses to brush up on standard English. The Straits Times started hiring English experts as columnists to promote the learning of standard English. The engineered effort resulted in a nationwide English-learning trend. Meanwhile, as the English language continued to localize, Singaporeans gradually got used to using Singlish as a colloquial style of English. Even such vibrant Singlish phrases as “car here, car there” have found their way into the poems written by local cultural figures.

Amid a multitude of dialects in use and without a dominant national tongue, the Singaporean government has established a language framework where Putonghua is primarily used for domestic communication while English is used for international communication. This bilingual approach has been instrumental in the country’s economic rise. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, both Singapore and Hong Kong have become global knowledge exchange hubs. As I have been told by various famous scholars, they feel more at home in the linguistic environment of Singapore.

Japanese English: silence is golden

Unlike the Singaporeans, who have the drive to speak English, most Japanese people do not speak the language. The Japanese are well known for their civility and meticulousness. More often than not, travellers are impressed by the hospitality and attentiveness of the local people. Foreigners, however, may find it an uphill battle to overcome the language barrier. At drugstores located in big cities, where many Chinese students work as part-timers, communication is not a problem. Otherwise, be it at hotels or restaurants, it is not easy to find someone who can speak decent English. On a business trip to Osaka in the depth of winter one year, I asked for directions at a train station. Five or six staff members there came out one after another. After taking a look at the address in my hand, they all smiled and spoke the same phrases in Japanese, leaving me completely clueless all along. Finally, a helpful gent at the station braced the heavy snow and insisted on walking with me all the way to my destination for the next 10 minutes or so before heading back by himself.

In fact, industrial cities like Osaka aside, even in Kyoto, an ancient capital and world-renowned tourist city, only a few Japanese people can communicate in English. As a customer enters a quaint old shop in enthusiastic anticipation, a female shop assistant will diligently introduce the products in Japanese. Even though seeing the customer does not understand at all, she will nonetheless go on explaining with patience, perhaps hoping that “sincerity can move even metal and stone” — that after listening to Japanese some more, coupled with the help of non-verbal communication, the customer will eventually understand what she means. Having said that, I do not find it worthwhile to apply such a craftsman-like spirit to luring a potential customer.

Why are there so few English speakers among the Japanese? I have posed this question to my Japanese friends. The most common explanation is that the Japanese and English languages are like chalk and cheese in their differences. That is why they find it so hard to learn English.

This reminds me of a story in the biography of mathematician Kunihiko Kodaira, the first Japanese recipient of the Fields Medal. After the Second World War, to resolve some mathematical problems, he accepted the invitation to be a visiting scholar at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, US. No matter how hard he tried, he simply could not express himself well in English. During class, he only wrote equations and proofs on the blackboard, without giving students any oral explanation. To everyone’s surprise, the non-verbal teaching approach was a great hit among students because they often found it hard to follow the American and English professors who spoke too fast. In his biography, Kodaira mentioned an amusing anecdote about Shinichiro Tomonaga (1965 Nobel prize in physics laureate), a visiting Japanese scientist to the US at the time. In a desperate bid to improve his English, Tomonaga was said to replace his teeth with a full set of American-made dentures.

Even geniuses like Kodaira and Tomonaga could not speak English, let alone mere mortals among the Japanese! Apparently, the two languages are really a world apart from each other. However, I find this explanation hard to accept because many of my Japanese friends speak fluent English. At the end of the day, the main reason is that the economic return on mastering English is low in Japan. Given the much greater importance of exports to the Japanese economy compared to imports, coupled with the high quality of domestic products, the Japanese have little interest in foreign products. Nor are Japanese parents keen on sending their children to study overseas. Hence they never get to develop an affinity with English. Furthermore, since the Meiji Restoration, Japanese elites have been hard at work translating Western scientific knowledge as well as the latest trends in arts and culture into Japanese, expediting the pace of localization on these fronts. As a result, despite the inability among the general public to speak fluent English, Japan is one of the countries worldwide most steeped in Western culture. Not only has it been a cradle of talent in science and technology, but it has also nurtured numerous maestros in music, architecture, and arts who have taken the West by storm.

Chinglish: a mix of Chinese, English, and local flavours

Singaporeans bear resemblance to the Japanese in having an extreme attitude towards English. The former takes the language on board completely, popularizing its daily use to the extent of creating a hybrid known as Singlish. In contrast, the latter gives English a wide berth, relying on Japanese elites to localize the world’s advanced science and arts. In comparison, spoken English in Hong Kong is much more of a mixed bag, with all sorts of regional accents. Be it standard English with a London Oxbridge accent or New York-Boston accent, English with a South Asian or Southeast Asian accent, or that with a Jiangsu, Zhejiang, or Shanghai accent, or even a local Cantonese accent, you name it, we’ve got it!

While a diverse language environment is a good thing, without a linguistic mainstay and combined with the dilution effect of daily life, a jumble of styles can be confusing. In the last century, as an important pathway to upward mobility, English learning was popular among Hong Kong people. Thanks to tireless encouragement from bilingually proficient cultural figures from the older generation, more and more locals have taken to English learning. The environment for learning English today is markedly better than before. Regrettably, without motivation or role models, young people who are unwilling to work hard to brush up their language skills will only find it hard to master English.

Nowadays, while Westerners find Hong Kong too Westernized and Mainland Chinese find Hong Kong too Chinese, Hongkongers find our city not localized enough. To truly embrace the unique characteristics of East meets West, language learning is the place to start. It behooves various sectors of the community to support young people to become bilingual in Chinese and English.
Language learning is not a zero-sum game. Only with the right blend of bilingualism, coupled with a solid foundation in Cantonese, will Hongkongers be able to enjoy an all-embracing advantage all of their own.

【Note 1】: https://www.ef.com/assetscdn/WIBIwq6RdJvcD9bc8RMd/cefcom-epi-site/reports/2023/ef-epi-2023-english.pdf
【Note 2】: https://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/data/pdfdoc/1999081404.htm

Professor Yanhui Wu
Associate Professor in Economics, Management and Strategy

A股分紅派息的監管及稅收

繼筆者上周在本欄分析A股上市公司的現金分紅情況與近年的增長趨勢，下文將扼要剖析其中背景，並探討相關的稅務問題。

監管法規與時俱進

鑑於A股上市公司一般進行現金分紅的積極性不高，中國證券監督管理委員會（中國證監會）多年來發布多項規章引導、鼓勵，要求上市公司進行分紅。2001年，《上市公司新股發行管理辦法》指出新發行股票的上市公司須解釋近3年沒有分紅的原因。2004年，《關於加強社會公眾股股東權益保護的若干規定》明確規定上市公司最近3年未進行現金利潤分配者，不得向社會公眾增發新股、發行可轉換公司債券或向原有股東配售股份。這是中國證監會第一次採取強制性規定促使上市公司分紅，目的是切實保障中小投資者的利益。

2006年，《上市公司證券發行管理辦法》首次明確規定企業近3年現金或股票累計分配的利潤應不少於近3年實現的年均可分配利潤的20%。到2008年，《關於修改上市公司現金分紅若干規定的決定》列明須進行現金分紅，並將這一比例提升到30%。

中國證監會在2012年、2013年、2015年、2022年相繼發布了有關現金分紅的措施，強調分紅的規範性，有助於進一步推廣現金分紅。在2013年的《上市公司監管指引第3號──上市公司現金分紅》（下稱「現金分紅指引」）中，首度要求獨立董事就現金分紅出具獨立意見，證券監管機構需重點關注現金分紅的異常情況（如有資金卻不分紅、大額分紅或公司章程並未規定現金分紅）。該指引允許上市公司董事會綜合考慮所處行業特點、發展階段、自身經營模式、盈利水準，以及是否有重大資金支出安排等因素，實施差異化的現金分紅政策：

．發展階段屬成熟期且無重大資金支出安排──進行利潤分配時，現金分紅在本次利潤分配中所佔比例（即現金分紅除以現金分紅和股票股利之和）最低應達到80%；

．發展階段屬成熟期且有重大資金支出安排──現金分紅在本次利潤分配中所佔比例最低應達到40%；

．發展階段屬成長期且有重大資金支出安排──現金分紅在本次利潤分配中所佔比例最低應達到20%；

．發展階段不易區分但有重大資金支出安排──可以按照前項規定處理。

2015年發布的《關於鼓勵上市公司兼併重組、現金分紅及回購股份的通知》中，首次提出鼓勵上市公司實施中期分紅。2022年的現金分紅指引中規定，如公司現金分紅水準較低，發行人及保薦機構應作出合理解釋。

2023年最新修改的現金分紅指引明確規定現金分紅在利潤分配方式中的優先地位，現金分紅的政策須寫入上市公司章程；2013年現金分紅指引中規定的現金分紅在當次利潤分配中所佔比例仍然適用。企業務必按指引披露未分紅原因，除了披露現金分紅低的具體原因以外，還要公開增強投資者回報水準擬採取的改進措施，以此督促財務投資較多但分紅水準偏低的公司提高分紅水準。指引又規定上市公司召開年度股東大會審議年度利潤分配方案時，可審議批准下一年中期現金分紅的條件、比例上限、金額上限等，引導企業形成中期分紅的習慣，提高分紅頻次。另外，該指引不再強制要求獨立董事出具意見，簡化了公司現金分紅的內部流程。

2024年4月發布的《關於加強監管防範風險推動資本市場高品質發展的若干意見》（「國九條」）提出要強化對上市公司現金分紅的監管，對多年未分紅或分紅比例偏低的公司，限制大股東減持、實施特殊處理（special treatment）風險警示。因此，對現金分紅的監管再次升級。

總的來看，中國證監會對A股上市公司現金分紅情況愈發關注、持續加強監管，這種關注和要求在全球的證券監管者中都是罕見的，體現了監管者保護大量個人投資者的利益（截至2024年5月，A股市場有2.2億個人投資者【註】），防止上市公司以上市作為圈錢的手段，可見用心良苦。現金分紅政策成了大多數上市公司必須認真對待的事項。

分紅課稅比率各異

需要指出的是，在徵收現金分紅所得稅時，不同的稅率適用於A股和港股市場的不同投資者以及通過不同投資方式而取得的分紅。對於在內地滬深交易所開設交易賬戶的個人投資者所獲現金分紅，須根據持有股票的時間繳交相應的稅款。若投資者持股期限不超過1個月，須繳20%的稅；持股期限1個月以上至1年，須付10%；持股期限超過1年者，所獲分紅暫時免稅。

投資者通過「港股通」投資在香港上市的股票（H股和非H股）獲得的分紅，須繳20%的所得稅。在香港聯交所開戶的投資者，若透過「滬港通」或「深港通」投資A股股票獲得分紅，須繳交10%所得稅，與投資香港H股獲得分紅的稅率相同。所以，目前對A股和港股市場投資者的分紅徵稅並未做到一視同仁，內地投資者透過「港股通」投資H股的話，須承擔較高的分紅所得稅，這樣一來，原本港股市場因為內地公司發行H股的估值低而獲得的較高稅前股息收益率優勢，將被顯著抵消，以致不利於北向資金流入港股市場。

不同投資者和同一投資者以不同方式投資同一公司的股票而獲派息，因面臨稅務負擔各異，不僅影響投資者對股息收益率的評估，也可能影響部分在A股和港股同時上市的公司的現金分紅政策。

改善稅務政策建議

根據上述的徵稅分析，筆者認為監管部門應該對相關稅收政策進行調整，減少或消除由於境內和境外投資者因開戶地、投資方式不同而產生分紅所得稅的稅務不均等。

在現階段通過中國證監會的監管要求，引導上市公司進行現金分紅，保障投資者的利益，是利大於弊。長期來看，上市公司現金分紅與否及分紅水準的釐定，仍應屬上市公司自主決策範疇，經上市公司股東大會批准即可。在未來合適的時機，監管部門或許可以考慮對於研發費用達到一定比例、年輕又持有現金較少的科創公司予以放寬或豁免現金分紅的要求，以便成長性高的科創公司能夠保留足夠的資金進行研發的投入和資本投資，保持市場競爭力。

註：https://www.news.cn/mrdx/2024-01/25/c_1310761978.htm

鄒宏教授
港大經管學院金融學教授

沈子軻先生
港大經管學院碩士生

（本文同時於二零二四年七月三日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

Further to our discussion in this column last week regarding cash dividend distribution among A-Share listed companies and the growing trend in recent years, below is a review of the background factors and related taxation issues.

Legislating to keep up with the times

In view of the general apathy among A-share companies towards distributing cash dividends in general, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has, over the years, introduced various regulations to guide, encourage, and require listed companies to pay dividends. The “Measures for the Administration of the Listed Company Issuing New Shares” were promulgated in 2001 to mandate companies issuing new shares to provide an explanation if they have not declared dividends within the past three years. Released in 2004, the “Provisions on Strengthening the Protection of the Rights and Interests of the General Public Shareholders” specifically prohibit listed companies that failed to distribute profits in cash in the last three years from issuing additional shares and convertible bonds and from allotting shares to the company’s existing shareholders. Aimed at suitably protecting the interests of small and medium investors, this marks the CSRC’s first mandatory requirement for listed companies to pay dividends.

Announced in 2006, the “Administrative Measures for the Issuance of Securities by Listed Companies” stipulate for the first time that the profits accumulatively distributed in cash or stocks should not be less than 20% of the average annual distributable profits realized within the last three years. The “Decision on the Revision of Several Regulations Regarding Cash Dividends” promulgated in 2008 makes cash dividend distribution mandatory and raises the percentage to 30%.

Measures for cash dividends released by the CSRC in 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2022 underline the prescriptive nature of dividend distribution and are thus conducive to promoting this practice. Promulgated in 2013, the “Guideline No. 3 on the Supervision and Administration of Listed Companies ― Cash Dividend Distribution of Listed Companies” (hereinafter “Cash-Dividend Distribution Guideline”) makes it mandatory, for the first time, for independent board members to put forward their independent views on cash dividends. Besides, securities regulators are required to pay special attention to any irregularities about a company’s cash dividend distribution, e.g. withholding such distribution in spite of readily available funds or substantial dividends, or cash dividend payouts excluded in the company’s Articles of Association. The Guideline enables the board of a listed company to implement a differentiated cash-dividend-distribution policy based on comprehensive considerations of such factors as the company’s industry characteristics, development stage, its business model, profitability, and any arrangements for major capital expenditure.

．If the company is at a mature stage of development and has no arrangements for major capital expenditure – the proportion of cash dividends (i.e. cash dividends divided by the sum of cash dividends and stock dividends) should account for at least 80% of the profits distributed in the corresponding period;

．If the company is at a mature stage of development but has arrangements for major capital expenditure – the proportion of cash dividends should account for at least 40% of the profits distributed in the corresponding period;

．If the company is at a growing stage of development and has arrangements for major capital expenditure, the proportion of cash dividends should account for at least 20% of the profits distributed in the corresponding period;

．If it is difficult to identify the company’s development stage and the company has arrangements for major capital expenditure, then the provisions in the foregoing paragraph shall apply.

The “Notice on Encouraging Mergers, Acquisitions, and Restructuring, Cash Dividends, and Share Repurchase of Listed Companies” rolled out in 2015 encourages, for the first time, listed companies to distribute interim dividends. The 2002 Cash Dividend Distribution Guideline requires the issuer and sponsoring organization to give a reasonable explanation if the cash dividends paid by their listed company are low.

The latest Cash-Dividend Distribution Guideline revised in 2023 mandates that companies prioritize cash payouts as a form of profit distribution and incorporate a cash-dividend distribution policy into their Articles of Association. The proportion of cash dividends in the distributed profits for the corresponding period, as specified in the 2013 Cash-Dividend Distribution Guideline, still applies. In accordance with the Guideline, listed companies are required to disclose the reasons behind their failure to pay dividends. Apart from providing specific reasons for low cash dividends, companies must also disclose their improvement measures to be taken to boost investor returns. This approach aims to urge companies with high capital investment but low dividend payouts to lift their cash dividends. The Guideline also stipulates that, when reviewing the annual profit distribution plan at their annual shareholders’ meetings, listed companies can deliberate and approve the conditions, maximum ratios, maximum amounts, etc. for cash dividends in the following interim period. This facilitates the establishment of the practice of distributing interim dividends and increases the frequency of cash payouts. In addition, the Guideline no longer requires independent board members to provide their individual views, thereby streamlining the company’s internal process of cash-dividend distribution.

Issued in April 2024, the “Guideline in Promoting the High-quality Development of the Capital Markets, Strengthening Regulation, and Forestalling Risks” demands tightening the regulation of cash dividends on the part of listed companies. It requires limiting major shareholders’ reduction of share capital and issuing special-treatment risk alerts for companies that have not distributed dividends or have maintained low dividend ratios for an extended period. The regulation of cash dividend distribution is thus escalated once again.

All in all, the CSRC has been paying increasing attention to and strengthening the regulation of cash dividend distribution of A-Share companies. Such a degree of attention and requirement is rare among regulators worldwide, testifying to the regulator’s effort and determination to protect the interests of public shareholders. As of May 2024, the number of retail investors in the A-Share market stood at 220 million (see 【Note】). It helps to prevent listed companies from using listing as a means of profiteering. Cash-dividend policy has become a matter calling for serious attention for most listed companies.

Different dividend tax rates for different markets

It is noteworthy that different rates of profit tax apply to different investors in the A-Share market and the Hong Kong stock market and to dividends derived from different investment methods. For retail investors holding accounts at the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, the tax rate on cash dividends is determined by the length of shareholding, e.g. at a rate of 20% for shareholdings less than one month long and at a rate of 10% for shareholdings between one month and less than a year. Those with shareholdings exceeding one year are exempted from tax on the dividends received.

Investors who invest in stocks (H shares and non-H shares) listed in Hong Kong via the Southbound Stock Connect are subject to a 20% income tax on cash dividends received. Investors with a Hong Kong Stock Exchange account are subject to a 10% income tax for dividends earned from A-Share stocks via the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect or the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Currently, the treatment of dividend income varies among A-Share and Hong Kong market investors. Mainland investors face a higher dividend income tax when investing in H shares via the Southbound Stock Connect. The advantage of a higher pre-tax dividend yield due to the lower valuation of H shares issued by Mainland companies in the Hong Kong stock market is thus substantially offset. This scenario is not conducive to northbound inflows of funds to the Hong Kong stock market.

Different investors and the same investor using various methods to invest in a company’s stock are subject to different dividend tax rates. This not only influences the investors’ evaluation of dividend yields but may also affect the cash-dividend distribution policies of companies that are simultaneously listed on the A-Share market and the Hong Kong stock market.

Proposed improvements to taxation policy

Based on the above taxation analysis, we believe that it behoves regulators to adjust related tax policies in order to minimize or eliminate tax inequality, i.e. different tax rates levied on local and cross-border investors due to different investment account locations and different investment methods.

As it stands, protecting investors’ interests by guiding listed companies to distribute cash dividends through the CSRC’s regulatory requirements is doing more good than harm. In the long run, the decision to whether or not distribute cash dividends and to determine dividend payout ratios should be left in the hands of the listed companies, subject to approval by shareholders’ meetings. When the opportunity is ripe, regulators could consider relaxing or scrapping the dividend-distribution requirement for young innovation and technology companies that have research and development (R&D) expenditure reaching a certain proportion and have less cash holdings. This will serve to facilitate effort by promising companies to build up sufficient funds so that their market competitiveness can be maintained through R&D input and capital investment.

Note: https://www.news.cn/mrdx/2024-01/25/c_1310761978.htm

Professor Hong Zou
Professor of Economics

Mr Zike Shen
Masters Students at HKUBS

(This article was also published on July 3, 2024 in the “Lung Fu Shan” column of the Hong Kong Economic Journal)

A股市場趕上現金分紅潮流

近期內地A股上市公司相繼公布去年業績和利潤分配方案，據中國上市公司協會統計，截至2024年5月2日，2023年共有3859家上市公司擬進行現金分紅，總額達2.24萬億元人民幣，較上年增加5.16%。這一成績的取得和中國證券監督管理委員會（中國證監會）長期以來通過政策引領的努力密不可分。本文對A股上市公司的現金分紅情況加以剖析。

派發股息誘因

投資者選擇股票作為獲利工具，主要通過股價上漲和取得現金分紅來實現收益。在成熟的股票市場，不少上市公司進行中期分紅甚至季度分紅，為投資者帶來經常性收益並增強其信心。另一方面，公司通過現金分紅，將超過投資需求的現金回饋給股東，可免公司管理層投資於低效的規模擴張（empire building）而浪費自由現金流，從而減輕管理層的代理問題【註1】。

投資者通常期望所投資企業能夠穩定並逐步增加現金分紅。因此，一旦企業開始實施現金分紅政策，應被視為一項長期承諾。若企業隨意削減或中斷現金分紅，或會引發投資者因擔憂企業發展前景而大量拋售股票，造成股價大幅下跌。

由於投資者對現金分紅的剛性期待，企業管理層在制定現金分紅策略時，往往傾向謹慎。這也解釋了為什麼在短時間內（如連續兩年），企業的利潤分紅比例和每股分紅水準都相對穩定，變化不大；這種穩定性稱為「現金分紅黏性」（dividend stickiness）。反之，若企業管理層突然大幅提高或降低分紅水準，難免會向市場傳遞出其對公司未來發展充滿信心或深感憂慮的訊號。

筆者的研究表明：A股市場長期分紅的企業，股價表現也十分出色。2008至2023年期間，持續現金分紅的上市公司有17家，經計算其自2009至2023年不包括現金分紅的持有期收益率（buy-and-hold return），發現明顯超過同期上海證券交易所綜合指數的持有期收益率，經幾何平均數計算的股票超額收益率為每年6.1%。由此可見，具持續穩定現金分紅水準的上市公司，透過二級市場也能為投資者提供可觀的資本增值。

因此，公司現金分紅佔利潤的比率、每股股息率（每股現金分紅/股價）以及這些指標的穩定性，都是投資者選擇股票投資的重要參考指標。

尚待持續分紅

儘管現金分紅對投資者和關注投資者的上市公司很重要，但傳統上持續分紅在A股上市公司中並不普遍。造成這一現象的主要原因是進行首次公開招股（initial public offering，簡稱IPO）和在上市後發行新股再融資（seasoned equity offering，簡稱SEO）的難度大，需經中國證監會的核准，過程較為複雜。根據東方財富資料，2023年A股再融資規模較2022年同比縮小了25%，定向增發規模創近10年來新低。

另外，由於股權較分散，美國市場的上市公司一般不願意發行新股，以免稀釋大股東的投票權。反觀A股上市公司股本結構較為集中，大股東持股比例偏高，所以不必顧慮投票權被新股過分稀釋。因此，上市公司傳統上不輕易將來之不易的現金分紅，而會優先考慮用諸公司的運營與投資。如上所述，經筆者統計，近16年來持續分紅的A股上市公司僅有17家。

上市公司除了現金分紅外，也可選擇通過回購在外發行股份而向參與回購的投資者支付現金【註2】。股份回購一般在上市公司股價較低時進行，藉此向市場傳遞價值被低估的訊號，並提升股價。因此，投資者並不預期上市公司定期進行股份回購，這意味着在是否選擇股份回購和回購的時機上，上市公司享有很大的靈活度。再者，回購也可以減少在外發行股本，並提升每股利潤和股票的潛在估值。

根據現有稅務安排，A股市場投資者通過買賣股票獲利，可免繳資本利得稅，因此在稅收方面，上市公司進行股份回購相比現金分紅理論上更具優勢。不過，A股上市公司進行股份回購近幾年才出現，目前市場整體回購規模並不大。相較而言，基於股份回購的優點，美股上市公司愈來愈偏好採取股票回購而不是現金分紅。據筆者研究，1998年，美股股份回購金額規模首次超過現金分紅；2010年至今，股份回購金額已穩定超過現金分紅。

現金分紅趨勢

筆者研究所得，近3年來A股上市公司實施現金分紅愈發普遍，分別共計3294、3446和3859家，分紅的公司佔比分別為70.4%、67.8%和72.4%；其中同時發行在香港交易所上市的H股的A股公司，其分紅比例在2021年和2022年分別為83.2%和81.2%。

就每股分紅與股息率而言，近3年A股實施現金分紅公司的每股分紅平均值（稅前）分別為0.31、0.32和0.30元人民幣；而實施現金分紅的公司的股息率平均值分別為2.20%、2.03%和1.82%。由於剛剛開始現金分紅的公司通常會採取傾向謹慎的分紅策略，市場整體平均分紅水準隨着更多公司開始派息而輕微下滑，屬於正常情況。對於同時發行在港交所上市的H股的A股公司，其每股分紅（稅前）2021年和2022年平均值分別為0.438和0.516元人民幣；其股息收益率在2021年和2022年平均值分別為3.02%和2.96%。

總體而言，A股上市公司進行現金分紅的公司數量和比例均呈上升趨勢，逐漸形成現金分紅的氛圍。其中，相對於純A股上市公司，H股上市公司為投資者提供更高的稅前股息收益率。

註1： Jensen, Michael C. “Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers.” The American Economic Review 76, no. 2（1986）︰323-329.

註2： 上市公司也可能發放特別的一次性現金分紅和股票股利（即送股）。因送股不涉及現金支付，其作用等同於股票細分。另外，公司偶爾也會發放另類股利來替代現金分紅。如本港某上市公司2021年底曾經以所持有的另一公司股票來發放股利。

鄒宏教授
港大經管學院金融學教授

沈子軻先生
港大經管學院碩士生

（本文同時於二零二四年六月二十六日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

A-Share listed companies in the Mainland have recently announced the annual results and profit distribution schedules of the previous year. According to statistics of the China Association of Public Companies, as of 2 May 2024, there were 3,859 listed companies planning to distribute cash dividends amounting to RMB2.24 trillion in 2023, representing a 5.16% growth over 2022. This can be largely attributed to the policy guidance provided by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The analysis below gives a clear overview of cash-dividend distribution by A-Share listed companies.

Incentives for distributing dividends

As a profit-making tool, stocks create benefits for investors when a company’s stock price goes up or when a company pays dividends. In a mature stock market, many listed companies distribute cash dividends on an interim or even quarterly basis, providing investors with regular income and boosting their confidence. On the other hand, through the distribution of dividends, companies return cash beyond their investment needs to shareholders, thus avoiding the waste of free cash flow due to inefficient empire building. As a result, the problem of management agency can be mitigated (see Note 1).

Investors usually expect the company they invest in to gradually increase its cash payouts. That is why a cash-dividend distribution policy, once implemented, is regarded as a long-term commitment. Any arbitrary reduction or suspension of cash dividends could trigger investors’ massive sell-off of the company’s stock because of concerns about its future, causing the stock price to plummet.

Given investors’ uncompromising expectation of cash dividends, company management tend to adopt a more conservative cash-dividend strategy. This also explains why corporate payout ratio and dividend per share have remained consistent with minimal change within a short period, e.g. two consecutive years. Stability of this nature is known as “dividend stickiness”. On the contrary, should company management significantly raise or lower dividends all of a sudden, it would inevitably signify to the market that they either have great confidence in or are deeply worried about the company’s future development.

Our research study illustrates that long-term dividend-paying companies in the A-Share market have also registered remarkable stock price performance. Over the period from 2008 to 2023, there were 17 listed companies in the market offering cash dividends on a regular basis. The buy-and-hold return excluding cash dividends between 2009 and 2023 was found to have outperformed that of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index while the excess stock return calculated by the geometric mean was at 6.1% per annum. This goes to show that listed companies able to sustain stable cash-dividend distributions can offer investors handsome capital appreciation even in the secondary market.

For this reason, dividend-to-profit ratio, dividend yield per share (calculated as cash dividend per share divided by share price), and the stability of these indicators are crucial factors for investors when selecting stocks to invest in.

Dividend distribution trend yet to be set

Despite the importance of cash payouts to investors and investor-centred listed companies, regular distribution of dividends is not traditionally common among A-Share listed companies. This phenomenon can mainly be put down to the difficulty of initial public offering (IPO) and seasoned equity offering (SEO), both being subject to approval by the CSRC in a relatively complex process. According to data of East Money, the refinancing scale of A Shares in 2023 shrank by 25% year on year while directed share issues in 2023 hit a new decade low.

Furthermore, widely-held listed companies in the US markets are generally disinclined to issue new shares to avoid diluting the voting rights of major shareholders. The concentrated shareholding structure among listed A-Share companies, however, is characterized by a higher percentage of ownership in the hands of major shareholders. Hence the dilution of voting rights by new shares is less of a concern. Broadly speaking, listed companies tend not to distribute their hard-earned cash as dividends and would prioritize allocating the cash for business operations and investment purposes. As mentioned above, based on the statistics of our study, there are currently only 17 A-Share listed companies that have offered regular cash dividends in the past 16 years.

Apart from distributing cash dividends, listed companies can opt to pay cash to participating investors by repurchasing their stock shares in the market (see Note 2). A buyback of shares is usually conducted when a company’s stock price is low so as to signify to the market that its value is underestimated and to boost the company’s stock price. Since investors do not expect listed companies to carry out buybacks on a regular basis, the companies have great flexibility to choose if and when to buy back shares. Besides, a buyback of shares is conducive to reducing issued share capital and to increasing profit per share and the potential share valuation.

Under the existing taxation arrangements, investors who make a profit in the A-Share market are exempted from capital gains tax. In terms of taxation, a buyback of shares is thus theoretically preferable to cash dividends. That said, buybacks in the A-Share market have only debuted in recent years and the overall scale of transactions in the Mainland market is not large. On the other hand, given the benefits of buybacks, a growing number of listed companies in the US prefer it to cash dividends. Based on our research, America’s buyback magnitude surpassed cash-dividend magnitude for the first time in 1998 and has consistently exceeded it since 2010.

Recent trend of cash payouts

Our study also reveals that, during the past three years, more and more A-Share listed companies have been distributing dividends, totalling 3,294, 3,446, and 3,859 respectively, representing respectively 70.4%, 67.8%, and 72.4% of listed companies in the same period. The dividend magnitude of A-Share companies that simultaneously issue H shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (SEHK) was 83.2% and 81.2% in 2021 and 2022 respectively.

In terms of dividend per share and dividend yield, the average pre-tax dividend per share among A-Share listed companies over the past three years was RMB0.31, RMB0.32, and RMB0.3 respectively. Meanwhile, the average dividend yield among these listed companies was 2.2%, 2.03%, and 1.82% respectively. Since new initiators tend to adopt a more conservative dividend policy, the average dividend distribution level in the market would normally experience a slight dip as more companies start making cash payouts. As for A-Share companies that also issue H Shares listed on the SEHK, the average pre-tax dividend per share for 2021 and 2022 was RMB0.438 and RMB0.516 respectively. Meanwhile, the average dividend yield among these listed companies for the same two years was 3.02% and 2.96% respectively.

All in all, both the number and proportion of A-Share listed companies that distribute cash dividends are showing a rising trend, gradually cultivating an atmosphere conducive to cash payouts. Compared with A-Share companies, H-Share companies provide investors with higher pre-tax dividend yields.

Note 1: Jensen, Michael C. “Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers.” The American Economic Review 76, no. 2 (1986): 323-329.

Note 2: Listed companies may also distribute one-off cash dividends or stock dividends (bonus shares). Since bonus shares do not involve cash payouts, they serve the same purpose as share splits. In addition, companies may sometimes issue alternative dividends in lieu of cash payouts. For example, at the end of 2021, a listed company in Hong Kong issued dividends through shares it held in another company.

By Professor Hong Zou and Mr Zike Shen
26 June 2024

香港下一站──跨國供應鏈管理中心

2023年，香港全年貨品出口總額錄得10.3%的實質跌幅，進口量也較2022年下跌8.5%。今年上半年進出口雖然整體上顯著提升，但對歐、美、日、韓等重要出口目的地的貨物量仍有下降。以往作為香港主要經濟活動之一的轉口貿易，規模漸見萎縮，難免令國際轉口貿易港的地位受到威脅。

經濟轉型勿再拖延

關於轉口貿易功能弱化和貿易港轉型的討論，早已展開多時。本世紀初，內地各大港口不斷發展，尤其以廣州和深圳的港口發展最快，內地通過香港轉口的貨物佔比逐漸降低。2008年金融危機嚴重打擊本地出口，貿易港的地位及貿易轉移成為香港經濟政策的一大熱門議題。

去年的《財政預算案》中，特區政府提出了新的轉型方案，目標是利用多年積累的貿易根基，以塑造跨國供應鏈管理中心的角色。財政司司長陳茂波指出，除了完善的硬件設施，香港兼具充足的人才和全面的專業配套服務。對於希望「走出去」而缺乏海外經驗的內地企業而言，一直充當內地與國際市場超級聯繫人角色的香港，當能提供最合適的方案。

是次轉型既是多方壓力下的當務之急，也是香港搶先出擊的難得機遇。一方面地緣政治日趨緊張，全球供應鏈愈發割裂，為應對高關稅和各種貿易障礙，中國採取「間接出口」模式，將半成品出口到其他發展中國家，並在當地完成組裝及出口，毋須經過香港。這種轉變令香港轉口貿易的需求進一步降低，香港轉型可謂刻不容緩。

另一方面，新興市場迅速發展，各國都希望從中分得一杯羹。因此內地企業更需前往其他國家投資、生產，而對相關貿易服務的需求，也相應有增無減。香港正好利用自身優勢，緊握貿易轉型期的黃金機會，以加速經濟轉型。

本港強項與底氣

政府致力建構跨國供應鏈管理中心，既是不少人心目中理所當然的目標，也是香港較其他亞洲港口城市擁有的顯著優勢，包括下列三大範疇。

一、多元的貿易融資選擇。本港不但金融基建完善穩健，市場規模宏大而且充滿活力，為企業提供多種融資途徑，並具完善的法治制度和多年運作暢順的經驗可資保證。

至於貿易融資和跨境支付方面，金融管理局及金融業界持續創新，例如該局近年來積極探索在港發行央行數碼貨幣（Central Bank Digital Currency；簡稱CBDC）的相關方案，並與阿聯酋、泰國及內地中央銀行共同開發CBDC跨境支付的mBridge項目。本港幾家大銀行也個別或攜手利用人工智能和區塊鏈等技術，推出數碼化保障，以及加速貿易融資、供應鏈融資、跨境融資的各類新方案。

憑藉活躍穩健的金融市場，香港足可建設供應鏈管理中心，區內其他港口在短期內也難以望其項背。融資的便利是過去幾十年吸引貿易的重要條件，若特區能一直維持金融市場穩定、政策透明、法治健全，未來將繼續吸引貿易企業前來落戶。

二、周全的配套專業服務。要令企業及投資者樂於以香港為供應鏈管理的基地，除了資金充裕，貿易和管理相關服務自然也不可或缺。多年來仗賴貿易中心發展起來的一系列配套專業服務，計有法律、會計、投資、保險、航運，乃至商業策略、翻譯，都已成為傳統優勢行業；在這些行業，香港公司既有人才，也具經驗。

在法律及商業一環，本港沿用國際標準，因而成為區內處理國際仲裁、貿易合規、標準認證方面的首選之都。貿易仲裁方面，本港一直扮演亞洲國際仲裁中心的角色。根據香港國際仲裁中心數據，2023年所處理的案件中，超過七成屬國際案件，當事人來自45個國家和地區。檢測及標準認證方面，本港已建立成熟的產業，超過900家專業機構在製造業、出口業及供應鏈各環節向各地區買家提供認證及檢測服務，其採納的標準廣獲全球100多個經濟體認可。

一如金融基建，專業服務產業在培訓人才和制定標準的周期需時，無法一蹴而就。財政司司長已指出，香港可以建成一站式供應鏈管理中心，世界各地相關企業所需的各式服務，在此一應俱全。加上其他港口不易在短期內超越香港，只要善加利用這些條件，並適度發展，將可提升社會整體競爭力。

三、高質素的人力資本。無論如何發展，如何轉型，最關鍵的資本繫於人才。本地營商環境及人才培訓制度，可確保在供應鏈管理方面的高質人才供應源源不絕。金融、商業及法律人才也許世界各地皆有，但同時掌握多種語言，適應不同文化背景，富有國際經驗及國際事業的專才並不多見，而這些能力素來是香港教育中的重點內容，也是港人的獨特優勢。

外圍挑戰來勢洶洶

香港縱然佔有先機，但同時面臨的挑戰絕對不容忽視，主要來自不斷加碼的地緣政治壓力。在供應鏈全球化的時代，貿易行業對地緣政治的敏感度極高，而風險承受能力則相對較低，即使貿易政策上的微調也可大幅擾亂供應鏈運作。在中美角力、保護主義抬頭及各亞洲市場競爭激烈等形勢下，香港近年來屢受衝擊。在可見的未來，地緣政治很可能繼續升級；如何平衡各方壓力，維持金融穩定和法治透明，減少對商界的震盪，是當局應先處理的問題。

其次，香港在傳統發達國家的市場步向弱化；近年政府頻頻出訪東盟、南美及中東國家，為的正是主動探索新市場。當前新市場縱然有新機遇，但其政治、文化、經濟狀況趨於複雜，本港的人才和經驗未必完全奏效。若要提供協助企業出海的服務，香港需要深入了解新環境和新市場，既要與當地或來自其他地區的對手競爭，又要發揮自身的獨特優勢，難度之高，也許不亞於從零開始發展一個全新行業。

最後，供應鏈管理中心從建立到運作管理，其過程相當漫長，在轉型期間，務須盡快確定未來方向及出路。在特區政府目前的規劃之中，供應鏈管理中心主要甚至唯一服務對象是需要出海的內地企業。要建設國際性的供應鏈管理中心，就必須令不同國家或地區，以及各行各業的客戶都有選擇香港的需求。

根據供應鏈經濟學中的微笑曲線（Smile Curve）分析，供應鏈在不同階段的收益各異，一般而言，上游研發、設計及下游營銷、出口的利潤高於中間的生產階段。要在主要國際貿易金融中心的城市名片加上跨國供應鏈管理中心，香港必先認清哪些產業的上、下游擁有比較優勢。政府也不妨考慮按行業及服務所需來分類，使服務多樣化和專業化。分散服務對象的來源，可以提高服務的專業程度，避免同行經常為同一批客戶彼此競爭；此亦有利於香港分散風險，抵抗地緣政治或由其他因素所引發的衝擊。

鄧希煒教授
港大經管學院副院長（對外事務）、亞洲環球研究所總監、馮國經馮國綸基金經濟學教授

龍淑儀小姐
亞洲環球研究所研究員

（本文同時於二零二四年六月十九日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

In 2023, Hong Kong recorded an export decline of 10.3% in real terms and an import drop of 8.5% as compared to 2022. Despite significant overall increases in both imports and exports in the first half of 2024, Hong Kong’s cargo throughput to prime export destinations such as Europe, the US, Japan, South Korea still registered a fall. With shrinking re-export trade, which was once a major economic activity for Hong Kong, the city’s status as an international entrepot is inevitably under threat.

No more delay in economic transformation

The waning role of re-export trade and the transformation of Hong Kong as a trading port have long been topics of discussion within the wider community. Since the turn of this century, with the continuous development of various ports in the Mainland, particularly those in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the share of transshipments from the Mainland through Hong Kong has been gradually decreasing. As a result of the 2008 financial crisis, which dealt a serious blow to local exports, Hong Kong’s status as a trading port and its trade diversion became a hot topic in the SAR Government’s economic policy deliberations.

In the 2024–25 Budget, the SAR Government unveiled a new transformation strategy. The plan is to harness the decades-long strengths in foreign trade to position Hong Kong as a multinational supply chain management centre. As Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po points out, Hong Kong boasts ample talent and comprehensive complementary professional services in addition to excellent hardware facilities. For Mainland enterprises planning to “go global” but lacking overseas experience and exposure, Hong Kong, in its traditional role as a super-connector between the Mainland and the international market, is well-positioned to offer the best solutions.

The economic transformation this time is not only a top priority under pressures from different quarters but is also a golden opportunity for Hong Kong to make the first move. On the one hand, amid rising geopolitical tensions, the global supply chain is becoming more and more fragmented. To address high tariffs and other trade barriers, China has resorted to an “indirect export” approach by exporting semi-finished goods to other developing countries for local assembly and exporting, effectively bypassing Hong Kong. This has further lowered the demand for re-export trade via Hong Kong, thus lending a new urgency to the city’s economic transformation.

On the other hand, in view of the rapid development of emerging markets, every country is vying for a piece of action in them. This has made it all the more necessary for Mainland enterprises to invest and produce in other countries and as a result, demand for related trade services has been on the rise. It is high time for Hong Kong to seize the golden opportunity during the trade restructuring by capitalizing on its own advantages and expediting its economic transformation.

Hong Kong’s strengths and underpinnings

The Government’s endeavour to build Hong Kong into a multinational supply chain management centre is taken by many as the ultimate objective. What is more, it epitomizes the SAR’s distinct competitive edge over other Asian cities in the following three areas.

1. A diverse range of trade financing options: In addition to a sound and robust financial infrastructure, Hong Kong has a sizeable and vigorous market that offers companies a great variety of financing channels. Its well-established legal system and years of experience in smooth operations also ensure a stable business environment.In the realm of trade financing and cross-border payment arrangements, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) and the local financial sector have stepped up effort to foster innovation. For example, the HKMA has in recent years been actively exploring a number of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) initiatives. Besides, through collaboration with the central banks of the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, and the Mainland, they have jointly developed the mBridge platform to facilitate cross-border CBDC payments. Making use of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, several leading banks in Hong Kong have separately or jointly launched an array of new solutions to provide digital safeguards and to expedite trade financing, supply chain financing, cross-border financing, etc.

   Thanks to its thriving and healthy financial market, Hong Kong is well-equipped to position itself as a supply chain management centre likely to remain head and shoulders above its regional counterparts in the short term. Over the past decades, ease of financing has been a crucial advantage conducive to trade. By maintaining a stable financial market, upholding transparent policies, and adhering to a sound rule of law, the SAR will continue to attract trading companies from abroad to set up businesses here.

2. A wide range of complementary professional services: To make Hong Kong an ideal supply chain management centre for companies and investors alike, trade and management-related services are just as indispensable as abundant liquidity. Throughout the decades, a full array of complementary professional services in law, accounting, investment, insurance, shipping, business strategy, and translation have evolved in Hong Kong because of its status as a trading centre. These services have become the SAR’s traditional advantageous sectors, where there is no shortage of talent or experience.Abiding by international standards within the domains of law and commerce, Hong Kong has become the top metropolis in Asia for international arbitration, trade compliance, and standard certification. Regarding trade arbitration, Hong Kong has always been Asia’s international arbitration hub. According to data of the Hong Kong International Arbitration Centre, more than 70% of arbitration cases handled in 2023 were of an international nature, with parties involved in the cases coming from 45 countries and regions. In terms of testing and standard certification, Hong Kong boasts a mature industry made up of 900-plus professional agencies, providing certification and testing services in manufacturing, export, and supply chain sectors for buyers from various regions. The standards adopted by Hong Kong are recognized by over 100 economies worldwide.

   Similar to financial infrastructure, the professional services industry needs time for talent cultivation and standard formulation. These processes simply cannot be completed overnight. As remarked by the Financial Secretary, Hong Kong can be developed into a one-stop supply chain management centre complete with comprehensive services required by related companies worldwide. Given that other ports are unlikely to surpass Hong Kong in the short term, the SAR can enhance its overall competitiveness so long as it effectively capitalizes on and develops these advantages.

3. High-quality human capital: Regardless of the development or transformation approach, the most valuable source of capital lies in talent. The business environment and talent-development system in Hong Kong can ensure a continuous supply of skilled personnel in supply chain management. While there may be no global shortage of high-calibre professionals in finance, business, and law, it is rare to find individuals who are multilingual, culturally adaptable, and have international experiences and career exposure. These attributes not only form an integral part of the SAR’s education but are also the unique advantages of Hong Kong people.

Rising to formidable external challenges

Despite its head start on competitors, Hong Kong is faced with unignorable challenges mainly coming from intensifying geopolitical pressures. In the era of supply chain globalization, the trading industry is highly sensitive to geopolitics. Since it has relatively low resistance to risks, even minor adjustments to trade policies can cause significant disruptions to supply chain operations. Against the backdrop of China-US rivalry, re-emergence of protectionism, and fierce competition in Asian markets, Hong Kong has been subject to frequent impacts in recent years. As geopolitical tensions are likely to escalate in the foreseeable future, it behoves the authorities to prioritize balancing pressures from different directions, maintaining financial stability and legal transparency, as well as minimizing shocks to the business sector.

Secondly, Hong Kong’s standing in traditional developed markets has declined. The SAR Government has been proactive in visiting ASEAN, South American, and Middle Eastern countries in recent years, aiming to tap into potential markets. Notwithstanding the fresh opportunities available in these new markets, their increasingly complex political, cultural, and economic situations could impair the effectiveness of Hong Kong’s talent and experience. In order to provide services that enable Mainland enterprises to go global, it is imperative for the SAR to gain a deep understanding of the new environments and markets. Attaining the dual goals of competing with local or regional rivals while playing to its own strengths is as demanding as starting a brand-new industry from scratch.

Finally, the process of building, operating, and managing a supply chain management centre is a lengthy one. During the economic transformation, it is necessary to promptly determine future directions and the way forward. Under the SAR Government’s existing plan, the supply chain management centre is primarily and even solely designed to serve Mainland enterprises attempting to go global. To become an international supply chain management centre, Hong Kong must inculcate the need in customers from various countries and business sectors to make the SAR their first choice in this regard.

According to analysis using the Smile Curve concept in supply chain economics, profits from the supply chain vary across stages. Generally speaking, in both the upstream (research and development as well as design) and downstream (marketing and export) operations, revenues are higher compared with the midstream (production) stage. In order to list “multinational supply chain management centre” as another achievement in addition to “major international trade and financial centre” on its name card, Hong Kong must first identify which of its industries command a competitive edge in both upstream and downstream supply chain. The SAR Government could consider categorizing industries and service needs to facilitate service diversity and professionalization. Diversifying the target customer base is conducive to enhancing service professionalism, preventing firms in the same sector from constantly competing for the same group of customers. This strategy can also enable Hong Kong to diversify risks, thus bolstering its resistance to impacts from geopolitics and other factors.

by Professor Heiwai Tang and Ms Shuyi Long
19 June 2024

生物多樣性風險管理：全球策略及政策實踐

生物多樣性風險（biodiversity risk）和氣候風險（climate risk）都是環境問題，但兩者關注的領域和影響因素各有不同。

生物多樣性是地球上生物種類、基因和生態系統的豐富程度；是生態系統健康、可持續性和抵禦外來干擾的基礎。生物多樣性風險是指人類活動或自然現象導致生物多樣性減少的可能性，可能源於生態破壞、氣候變遷、污染、過度開發和入侵物種等。此類風險足以嚴重影響人類經濟、社會和生態系統，如糧食安全、水資源和藥物研發。保護和恢復生物多樣性以降低生物多樣性風險，對全球可持續發展具重要意義。

至於氣候風險，則來自人類活動造成的溫室氣體排放，進而導致全球氣候暖化、極端氣候事件頻率和強度增加，亦包括海平面上升、洪水、乾旱、食物和水資源減少。

儘管這兩種風險聚焦的領域不同，但其中仍存在一定關聯。氣候變遷可能加劇生物多樣性風險，導致物種分布、生態系統結構和生物相互作用出現變化。同時，生物多樣性的喪失，或會削弱生態系統對氣候變遷的適應能力。

訊息披露法規現況

儘管生物多樣性的喪失備受全球關注，各國政府卻尚未出台強制要求企業披露生物多樣性影響的法規。當前不少監管機構已制定關於環境、社會及管治（ESG）披露的指南和政策，生物多樣性通常作為環境因素的一部分被納入其中。譬如，美國證券交易委員會倡議上市公司披露對其業務具有重大影響的風險和不確定性，當中可能包括關乎生物多樣性的問題。

此外，美國一些行業和非政府組織也倡導企業在可持續發展報告中，提供關於生物多樣性的資訊。雖然並非強制性，但公司為了提高透明度和滿足持份者的要求，每多自願披露相關資料。同時，不少國家和地區鼓勵企業遵循國際性的ESG披露框架，如全球報告倡議組織（Global Reporting Initiative）的可持續發展報告指南，以及金融穩定理事會的氣候相關財務披露工作小組（Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures）。這些框架中通常也包含了與生物多樣性相關的披露要求。

企業應對風險策略

由於生物多樣性風險的廣泛影響及披露倡議，愈來愈多企業開始未雨綢繆，積極實行保護措施。以下為美國和本港兩大上市企業的典型案例，以資讀者參考。

為了應對生物多樣性風險對農作物的潛在危害，星巴克與保護國際（Conservation International）組織合作，推出「咖啡與農民的公平實踐」（C.A.F.E. Practice）計劃，以確保咖啡農場遵守保護生物多樣性和野生動物棲息地的核心準則。該計劃臚列農業規範和環境措施，旨在有效管理廢物和農藥的使用、節約能源和保護水質，以維護生物多樣性。截至2015年，星巴克已實現超過99%的咖啡豆通過此一嚴格篩選程序。

作為港企龍頭之一的長江實業集團有限公司，將生物多樣性風險納入其企業風險管理系統，並積極識別和評估潛在風險。該集團制定了以下各項生物多樣性政策：一、透過環境影響評估，以減輕其集團業務對自然棲息地的負面影響。二、積極與持份者合作，以互相增強對保護生物多樣性的意識。三、減少業務運營和建築項目對環境的污染，包括減少空氣、噪音和光污染。同時，在現有的基礎設施投資項目（如Northumbrian Water、UK Power Networks）中，採取措施減少產生廢棄物和碳排放，以保護自然環境和生物多樣性。

資本市場綠色機遇

生物多樣性的喪失可能引發一系列連鎖影響，世界經濟論壇估計，世界經濟有一半以上依賴自然。有鑑於此，不僅企業在探索有利生物多樣性的新商業模式，投資者也開始關注並投資保護世界生物多樣性，為市場帶來新投資機會。

目前，市場上專注於生物多樣性的股票基金數量不斷增加。許多投資機構利用專業知識，將資產分散投資於最有潛力促進生物多樣性的公司，推出多樣化的投資組合，供投資者選擇。例如，安盛投資管理亞洲有限公司的投資產品主要集中在可持續材料、土地和動物保護、水生態系統等領域。富達基金的最新產品也專注於投資致力解決生物多樣性喪失問題的頂尖公司，涵蓋污染治理、土地和海洋利用變化、直接開採等主題。

這些股票基金不僅支持保護生物多樣性，且符合聯合國提出的「2030可持續發展目標」，為投資者創造長期穩定的潛在投資價值。然而，在選擇投資組合時，投資者需仔細評估相關風險，包括行業對生物多樣性的影響、土地利用變化及供應鏈等間接因素對生物多樣性的影響。

政府相關政策展望

香港給人的印象是個繁華熱鬧的大都會，但這片彈丸之地也富於自然生態和生物多樣性，為市民帶來四季分明的景致。保護生物多樣性對於這座城市的可持續發展至關重要，特別是在氣候變遷等挑戰日益嚴峻的情況下，社會上下都必須共同努力，保護寶貴的自然遺產。2016年，特區政府公布首份城市級《生物多樣性策略及行動計劃》，旨在深化生物多樣性保護及支持本港的可持續發展。展望未來，除了加強本地教育，當局更應着力擴展在區域及國際方面的交流和合作。

在區域層面，特區政府可與珠三角地區攜手合作，共同應對跨境生物多樣性保育問題。例如透過設立跨境自然保護區、合作進行生物多樣性監測等方式，共同保護跨境生態系統和生物多樣性。區域合作有助於提高生物多樣性保育的整體效果，進一步促進區域可持續發展。

國際方面，特區政府可繼續與聯合國環境署、世界自然保護聯盟等國際環保組織加強合作，共同推動生物多樣性保護的研究、政策制定和技術交流。在此大前提之下，當局亦宜鼓勵本港科研機構與國際研究機構合作，開展生物多樣性保護的基礎及應用研究。

章逸飛博士
港大經管學院經濟學高級講師

江梓茵女士
港大經管學院本科生

（本文同時於二零二四年六月十二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

生物多樣性風險管理：全球策略及政策實踐

生物多樣性風險（biodiversity risk）和氣候風險（climate risk）都是環境問題，但兩者關注的領域和影響因素各有不同。

生物多樣性是地球上生物種類、基因和生態系統的豐富程度；是生態系統健康、可持續性和抵禦外來干擾的基礎。生物多樣性風險是指人類活動或自然現象導致生物多樣性減少的可能性，可能源於生態破壞、氣候變遷、污染、過度開發和入侵物種等。此類風險足以嚴重影響人類經濟、社會和生態系統，如糧食安全、水資源和藥物研發。保護和恢復生物多樣性以降低生物多樣性風險，對全球可持續發展具重要意義。

至於氣候風險，則來自人類活動造成的溫室氣體排放，進而導致全球氣候暖化、極端氣候事件頻率和強度增加，亦包括海平面上升、洪水、乾旱、食物和水資源減少。

儘管這兩種風險聚焦的領域不同，但其中仍存在一定關聯。氣候變遷可能加劇生物多樣性風險，導致物種分布、生態系統結構和生物相互作用出現變化。同時，生物多樣性的喪失，或會削弱生態系統對氣候變遷的適應能力。

訊息披露法規現況

儘管生物多樣性的喪失備受全球關注，各國政府卻尚未出台強制要求企業披露生物多樣性影響的法規。當前不少監管機構已制定關於環境、社會及管治（ESG）披露的指南和政策，生物多樣性通常作為環境因素的一部分被納入其中。譬如，美國證券交易委員會倡議上市公司披露對其業務具有重大影響的風險和不確定性，當中可能包括關乎生物多樣性的問題。

此外，美國一些行業和非政府組織也倡導企業在可持續發展報告中，提供關於生物多樣性的資訊。雖然並非強制性，但公司為了提高透明度和滿足持份者的要求，每多自願披露相關資料。同時，不少國家和地區鼓勵企業遵循國際性的ESG披露框架，如全球報告倡議組織（Global Reporting Initiative）的可持續發展報告指南，以及金融穩定理事會的氣候相關財務披露工作小組（Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures）。這些框架中通常也包含了與生物多樣性相關的披露要求。

企業應對風險策略

由於生物多樣性風險的廣泛影響及披露倡議，愈來愈多企業開始未雨綢繆，積極實行保護措施。以下為美國和本港兩大上市企業的典型案例，以資讀者參考。

為了應對生物多樣性風險對農作物的潛在危害，星巴克與保護國際（Conservation International）組織合作，推出「咖啡與農民的公平實踐」（C.A.F.E. Practice）計劃，以確保咖啡農場遵守保護生物多樣性和野生動物棲息地的核心準則。該計劃臚列農業規範和環境措施，旨在有效管理廢物和農藥的使用、節約能源和保護水質，以維護生物多樣性。截至2015年，星巴克已實現超過99%的咖啡豆通過此一嚴格篩選程序。

作為港企龍頭之一的長江實業集團有限公司，將生物多樣性風險納入其企業風險管理系統，並積極識別和評估潛在風險。該集團制定了以下各項生物多樣性政策：一、透過環境影響評估，以減輕其集團業務對自然棲息地的負面影響。二、積極與持份者合作，以互相增強對保護生物多樣性的意識。三、減少業務運營和建築項目對環境的污染，包括減少空氣、噪音和光污染。同時，在現有的基礎設施投資項目（如Northumbrian Water、UK Power Networks）中，採取措施減少產生廢棄物和碳排放，以保護自然環境和生物多樣性。

資本市場綠色機遇

生物多樣性的喪失可能引發一系列連鎖影響，世界經濟論壇估計，世界經濟有一半以上依賴自然。有鑑於此，不僅企業在探索有利生物多樣性的新商業模式，投資者也開始關注並投資保護世界生物多樣性，為市場帶來新投資機會。

目前，市場上專注於生物多樣性的股票基金數量不斷增加。許多投資機構利用專業知識，將資產分散投資於最有潛力促進生物多樣性的公司，推出多樣化的投資組合，供投資者選擇。例如，安盛投資管理亞洲有限公司的投資產品主要集中在可持續材料、土地和動物保護、水生態系統等領域。富達基金的最新產品也專注於投資致力解決生物多樣性喪失問題的頂尖公司，涵蓋污染治理、土地和海洋利用變化、直接開採等主題。

這些股票基金不僅支持保護生物多樣性，且符合聯合國提出的「2030可持續發展目標」，為投資者創造長期穩定的潛在投資價值。然而，在選擇投資組合時，投資者需仔細評估相關風險，包括行業對生物多樣性的影響、土地利用變化及供應鏈等間接因素對生物多樣性的影響。

政府相關政策展望

香港給人的印象是個繁華熱鬧的大都會，但這片彈丸之地也富於自然生態和生物多樣性，為市民帶來四季分明的景致。保護生物多樣性對於這座城市的可持續發展至關重要，特別是在氣候變遷等挑戰日益嚴峻的情況下，社會上下都必須共同努力，保護寶貴的自然遺產。2016年，特區政府公布首份城市級《生物多樣性策略及行動計劃》，旨在深化生物多樣性保護及支持本港的可持續發展。展望未來，除了加強本地教育，當局更應着力擴展在區域及國際方面的交流和合作。

在區域層面，特區政府可與珠三角地區攜手合作，共同應對跨境生物多樣性保育問題。例如透過設立跨境自然保護區、合作進行生物多樣性監測等方式，共同保護跨境生態系統和生物多樣性。區域合作有助於提高生物多樣性保育的整體效果，進一步促進區域可持續發展。

國際方面，特區政府可繼續與聯合國環境署、世界自然保護聯盟等國際環保組織加強合作，共同推動生物多樣性保護的研究、政策制定和技術交流。在此大前提之下，當局亦宜鼓勵本港科研機構與國際研究機構合作，開展生物多樣性保護的基礎及應用研究。

章逸飛博士
港大經管學院經濟學高級講師

江梓茵女士
港大經管學院本科生

（本文同時於二零二四年六月十二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）

美國貿易政策何去何從

上月中，美國政府宣布對中國總值約180億美元的商品加徵關稅，包括電動車、電池、半導體和醫療用品等。雖然受影響的商品價值佔出口美國的比例不大，卻加劇了6年前特朗普掀起的貿易戰，使中美貿易局面惡化。數天後，拜登在美國「世界貿易周」（World Trade Week）活動開幕時表示，對華新關稅為其貿易成就之一，用以「保護」美國工人及企業。

二戰後的美國曾高舉自由貿易的大旗，鼓勵其他國家降低貿易壁壘，互相開放國內市場，推動多邊貿易協議，並反對保護主義。然而，無論是2017年的特朗普還是今天的拜登，都是利用貿易政策掩蓋各種反自由貿易的措施。

對華打關稅戰得不償失

眾所周知，特朗普政府的對外關係強調「美國優先」（America first），這一政策在貿易上的具體表現是不受多邊或複邊的貿易協議掣肘，例如藐視世界貿易組織（WTO）等國際機構的裁定，甚至打壓破壞有關機制。即使有貿易談判，也以雙邊為主，以便美國用強大的經濟力量脅迫對方。在貿易政策上，關稅是特朗普應對盟友和對手的主要招數。經過數年的貿易戰，美國對中國的貿易逆差並沒有減少，關稅亦沒有如特朗普所言由中國承擔，而是由美國消費者承擔。

與此同時，中國採取反制措施，減少從美國進口農產品，這使經濟受損的美國農民需要美國政府補貼。換句話說，美國消費者購買中國產品多付的費用，便經美國政府轉而用於補貼美國農民。

總體而言，美國在關稅戰中得不償失。此外，特朗普出任總統時施行的貿易政策，不但開了全球貿易的倒車，亦使其他國家噤若寒蟬。若特朗普在今年11月的大選捲土重來，各國紛紛表示將考慮不同的應變計劃。

拜登就任總統不久，便對歐洲盟友表示「美國回來了」（America is back），並擺出帶領美國重啟國際合作的姿態。拜登作為比較接受國際貿易的民主黨成員，曾支持美國、加拿大和墨西哥簽訂《北美自由貿易協定》（NAFTA），亦贊成中國在2001年加入WTO。

2020年競選期間，拜登用魯莽（reckless）、破壞性（damaging）和災難性（disastrous）來批評特朗普的關稅政策。然而，拜登已執政超過3年，期間並沒有撤銷相關關稅法案，反而變本加厲。深究其因，是因為特朗普很大程度上改變了美國的貿易政治生態，令美國難以回到自由主義的貿易政策。

很多人認為特朗普在2016年競選獲勝的一個主要原因是，強調全球化對美國尤其是製造業工人的負面影響。特朗普擺出保護美國製造業工人就業的姿態，此舉為其爭取到不少選票，特別是來自中西部搖擺州的選票。特朗普批評二戰後的貿易協議對美國工人不利，認為美國應該退出相關協議。特朗普類似的論述對製造業工人極具吸引力。

現任的美國貿易代表戴琦認為，希拉莉在競選美國總統時輸給特朗普的其中一個原因是，她支持《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（TPP）。在選舉政治的氛圍籠罩下，貿易協議和貿易議題成為美國政客避之惟恐不及的對象，拜登既不敢撤銷特朗普制定的關稅政策，亦不敢回到前身為TPP的「全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定」（CPTPP）。

拜登想將多邊主義及國際合作重新納入美國的對外關係，有別於特朗普的單邊主義，但又不能回到新自由主義的做法。他的團隊，包括國家安全顧問沙利文和貿易代表戴琦在內的官員，推出所謂的「中產階級外交政策」（foreign policy for the middle-class）和「以工人為中心的貿易政策」（worker-centered trade policy），作為新貿易政策的基礎。簡單來說，自由貿易看重生產成本，如美國成本高、競爭力低的製造業，會面臨外國產品的競爭，以及美國勞工失業的困境。無獨有偶，由於外國僱主維持低成本生產，外國勞工將因此缺乏工作權益的保障。戴琦將此現象稱為「逐底競爭」（a race to the bottom）。「以工人為中心的貿易政策」重點關注作為製造業的工人，保護本國和外國工人包括工作條件、待遇、工會權益在內的勞工權益，從而免受剝削。提高一國的勞工權益，亦會帶動其他盟國勞工權益的發展和進步，這是所謂的「力爭上游」（a race to the top）。

降關稅開放市場非選項

然而，滿足條件並願意合作，有意通過貿易提高雙方勞工權益的夥伴寥寥無幾。傳統上貿易合作基於互利的前提，會同時降低關稅或同時開放市場。但對美國當下政治環境而言，這兩者都不是選項。自拜登執政3年多以來，美國的外貿措施並無改善，甚至已陷入困境，美國積極推動的「印度太平洋經濟框架」（IPEF）便是最具代表性的實例。特朗普於2017年上任後隨即將美國從TPP撤出。

隨着印太地區經濟一體化的向前推進，美國只能袖手旁觀。除此之外，美國對中日韓、東盟和紐澳簽署的「區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定」（RCEP）也是冷眼旁觀。拜登政府認為美國推動的IPEF是其重新參與塑造印太地區經濟秩序的機會，也是證明其以工人為中心的政策可以取得成果的一種方式。

IPEF的成員包括美國、印度、印尼、日本、越南和澳洲在內的14個國家。IPEF旨在加強國家的綠色轉型，促進成員國有關反腐敗、供應鏈等領域的合作。

除此之外，拜登政府希望通過IPEF的合作提高環境水平和勞工待遇，減少其他成員國的競爭優勢，從而提高美國企業的競爭力。拜登政府只是模糊地承諾參與國可從西方金融機構獲得氣候和基礎設施的融資作為合作的回報，而這樣的合作條件並不對等。此外，拜登政府推動IPEF時，是以「執行協議」（executive agreement）的形式和其他國家談判，而非通過美國國會投票決議。這意味着它的命運可能跟TPP一樣，有機會被下一任總統撤銷。

去年11月，在拜登會見中國國家主席習近平的前一天，IPEF成員國在三藩市聚齊，試圖就IPEF框架的四大支柱達成協定。成員國在供應鏈、清潔能源投資和反腐敗的合作方面取得了進展，但美國代表卻在洽談貿易合作環節時退席。究其原因，是該架構遭到俄亥俄州和威斯康星州民主黨參議員的強烈反對。這些議員今年須面對競選連任的壓力，他們認為IPEF可能會損害美國工人利益，從而影響他們的連任機會。IPEF的會議草草收場，極度影響了美國的國際信用和其秉持的全球領導者的形象。

難斷言是全球化受害者

從宏觀經濟的角度看，拜登以工人為中心的貿易政策，勢必會提高生產成本、減少企業儲蓄並增加政府財赤。受惠的工人或許因待遇的改善而增加儲蓄，但個人儲蓄的增值並不足以抵消政府財赤的增加。與之相反，國民儲蓄的減少則會增加美國的貿易逆差。美國的貿易數十年來均錄得逆差，共和黨和民主黨的改善政策未見實效。不過，對美國來說，能夠開動印鈔機就能收割外國商品，因此難以斷言美國是經濟全球化和國際貿易的受害者。

目前，離年底美國總統大選只有5個月的時間。無論鹿死誰手，美國都不會重施新自由主義的貿易政策。美國是全球商品及服務的第一貿易國，其貧乏的貿易政策將直接阻礙全球貿易的發展。若利用得當，貿易可作為國家間和平的基石。如經過兩次大戰洗禮的歐洲，在痛定思痛後，成立了歐洲共同市場，由此開啟歐洲經濟整合的第一步。在國際政治波譎雲詭的今天，美國需要重審自己的貿易政策，以保障全球貿易的持續增長以及全球化的向前推進。

陸炎輝博士
港大經管學院榮譽副教授

（本文同時於二零二四年六月五日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄）