Events

Prof Min Fang
Assistant Professor of Economics
University of Florida

Marriage and fertility are declining globally. We study the impact of spatial structural changes on marriage matching and quantify their aggregate implications for national marriage rates. Using data from China, we first present stylized facts on the joint patterns of dramatic gender- biased spatial structural changes, persistent marital social norms, and the diverging spatial distribution of singlehood characterized by a high singles rate for females (males) in more (less) developed cities. We then build a prefecture-level spatial equilibrium model with multi-sector and multi-skill production, migration, and local marriage markets. The model reveals that, without gender-specific spatial structural changes, the singles rate would be 30%lower for average women and over 50% lower for college-educated women. The key mechanism is that spatial structural changes lead more highly educated women to sort into the service sector in more developed cities than men. However, social norms remain persistent, particularly the strong preference for hypergamy. This results in more failed marriage matches for females (males) in more (less) developed cities, thereby lowering the national marriage rate. Counterfactual analysis shows that subsidizing marriage is costly and relatively ineffective amid continuing gender-specific spatial structural changes.