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Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
2Apr
Finance

Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field

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Speaker:

Professor Cameron Peng
Assistant Professor of Finance
Department of Finance
The London School of Economics and Political Science

Abstract:

We survey a large, representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investments and their return expectations. We merge this survey data with administrative transaction data to test a model in which investors selectively recall past experiences to form their beliefs. Our analysis uncovers new facts about investor memory and highlights similarity-based recall as a novel mechanism of belief formation in financial markets. A rising market prompts investors to recall their past experiences more positively, leading to more optimistic forecasts of future returns. Recalled experiences explain a sizable fraction of cross-investor variation in return expectations and dominate actual experiences in their explanatory power. In the transaction data, we confirm that recalled experiences affect investors’ trading decisions through a belief channel.

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214th Congregation (Summer Congregation 2025)
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214th Congregation (Summer Congregation 2025)
Grand Hall, Centennial Campus, HKU
Semiparametric Identification of the Discount Factor and Payoff Function in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
Semiparametric Identification of the Discount Factor and Payoff Function in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
Semiparametric Identification of the Discount Factor and Payoff Function in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
Semiparametric Identification of the Discount Factor and Payoff Function in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
Semiparametric Identification of the Discount Factor and Payoff Function in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
18Jun
Economics | Seminar
Semiparametric Identification of the Discount Factor and Payoff Function in Dynamic Discrete Choice Models
18 June 2025 | 2:15 PM - 3:30 PM
KK 910 K. K. Leung Building, HKU
Prof. Katsumi Shimotsu
Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
About Speaker
Cameron Peng

Assistant Professor of Finance | Department of Finance | The London School of Economics and Political Science

Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field
2 Apr 2025
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