Events

Dr. Luther Yap
Presidential Fellow
Department of Economics
National University of Singapore

This paper considers inference in a linear instrumental variable regression model with many potentially weak instruments, in the presence of heterogeneous treatment effects. I first show that existing test procedures, including those that are robust to either weak instruments or heterogeneous treatment effects, can be arbitrarily oversized. I propose a novel and valid test based on
a score statistic and a “leave-three-out” variance estimator. In the presence of heterogeneity and within the class of tests that are functions of the leave-oneout analog of a maximal invariant, this test is asymptotically the uniformly most powerful unbiased test. In two applications to judge and quarter-of-birth instruments, the proposed inference procedure also yields a bounded confidence set while some existing methods yield unbounded or empty confidence sets.