HKUBS_logo_25_web
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAcct
          • MAA
          • MAIB
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MSAF
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Research Assistant Professors / Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • PhD Job Market Candidates
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Impact Factors
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
  • 繁
  • 简
Type To Search
HKUBS_logo_25_web
Type To Search
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAcct
          • MAA
          • MAIB
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MSAF
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Research Assistant Professors / Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • PhD Job Market Candidates
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Impact Factors
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
HKUBS_logo_25_web
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
    • Overview
      • Message from the Dean
      • Vision & Mission
      • Milestones
      • Partnerships & Global Network
      • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
      • Rankings & Accreditations
      • Corporate Collaboration
    • Leadership
      • Faculty Management
      • International Advisory Council
    • Our Stories
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Portal
    • Campuses
  • Programmes
    • Undergraduate
    • Masters
      • MAcct
      • MAA
      • MAIB
      • MEcon
      • MFWM
      • MFin
      • MFFinTech
      • MGM
      • MSc(BA)
      • MScMktg
      • MSAF
      • MWM
    • MBAs & EMBAs
      • MBA
      • IMBA
      • HKU EMBA
    • DBA
    • PhD
    • Executive Education
  • People
    • Faculty
    • Research Assistant Professors / Post-Doctoral Fellows
    • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
    • Research Postgraduate Students
    • Administration
  • Research
    • Thought Leadership
      • Latest Research Publications
      • HKEJ Column
      • FT Chinese Column
      • In the Media
    • Academic Areas
    • Faculty Members
    • Research Grants
    • PhD Job Market Candidates
    • Seminars & Conferences
      • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
    • Impact Factors
    • Research Centres & Institutes
    • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
    • HKU Knowledge Exchange
    • HKU Scholars Hub
    • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
    • School News
    • In the Media
    • Press Release
  • Career
    • Recruit our Talents
    • Student Career Development
    • Career Opportunities
      • Faculty Recruitments
      • HKU Career Site

Events

Home Events
Benign Overfitting in Economic Forecasting via Noise Regularization
Benign Overfitting in Economic Forecasting via Noise Regularization
Benign Overfitting in Economic Forecasting via Noise Regularization
Benign Overfitting in Economic Forecasting via Noise Regularization
27Apr
Seminar Calendar, Information and Innovation Management

Benign Overfitting in Economic Forecasting via Noise Regularization

27 April 2026 | 11:00 a.m.— 12:00 noon
KK 1121, K. K. Leung Building, HKU
Share on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on WhatsappShare on LinkedInShare on Email
SPEAKER

Prof. Zhentao Shi
Professor
Department of Economics
The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)

 

ABSTRACT

This paper studies linear overparameterized models in economic forecasting and highlights that including noise variables (regressors with no predictive power) regularizes the estimator. We consider a setting where both the outcome variable and the high-dimensional predictors are driven by a small number of latent factors, and show that the linear forecast model is dense rather than sparse. It turns out that a ridgeless regression augmented with noise predictors attains the same asymptotic forecast accuracy as an oracle with known true factors, without estimating the factors or assuming them to be strong. The gain comes from shrinkage of the eigenvalues of the design matrix, which reduces the out-of-sample variance. In contrast, perfect variable selection that removes noise variables can worsen forecasts when the number of retained predictors is comparable to the sample size. Empirically, we apply this approach to forecasting U.S. inflation, international GDP growth, and the U.S. equity risk premium, finding that noise regularization improves and stabilizes predictive performance.

Universities and the Rise of Services24 April 2026
FinTech Brings a Bias from Psychology Labs to a Two-trillion-dollar Market27 Apr 2026
Other Events
Optimal No-Regret Learning in Repeated First-Price Auctions
Optimal No-Regret Learning in Repeated First-Price Auctions
Optimal No-Regret Learning in Repeated First-Price Auctions
Optimal No-Regret Learning in Repeated First-Price Auctions
5Jun
Innovation and Information Management | Seminar
Optimal No-Regret Learning in Repeated First-Price Auctions
5 June 2026 | 2:30 p.m.— 4:00 p.m.
KK 910, K. K. Leung Building, HKU
Prof. Zhengyuan Zhou
Power of Waste-Aware Display Policies in Online Grocery Retail: A Unified Framework
Power of Waste-Aware Display Policies in Online Grocery Retail: A Unified Framework
Power of Waste-Aware Display Policies in Online Grocery Retail: A Unified Framework
Power of Waste-Aware Display Policies in Online Grocery Retail: A Unified Framework
1Jun
Innovation and Information Management | Seminar
Power of Waste-Aware Display Policies in Online Grocery Retail: A Unified Framework
1 June 2026 | 10:30 a.m.— 12:00 p.m.
KK 1121, K. K. Leung Building, HKU
Prof. Huanan Zhang
Benign Overfitting in Economic Forecasting via Noise Regularization
About Speaker
Prof. Zhentao Shi

Professor | Department of Economics | The Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK)

Benign Overfitting in Economic Forecasting via Noise Regularization
27 April 202611:00 a.m.— 12:00 noon
KK 1121, K. K. Leung Building, HKU
Sign up for upcoming news and events
LinkedIn WeChat Instagram Facebook Weibo Twitter YouTube

©2025, HKU Business School. All Rights Reserved. | Privacy Policy | Web Accessibility Statement