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Home Research Thought Leadership In the Media
Reaffirming Our Faith in the Hong Kong Economy

Reaffirming Our Faith in the Hong Kong Economy

9 Nov 2022
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堅定對香港經濟的信心

香港資本市場近來風雨飄搖,恒生指數一度跌破15000點的回歸前水平。長期堅挺的樓市今年以來也開始下行,表現漸呈疲軟。受疫情和地緣政治影響,外貿和經濟增長乏力;面對激烈的國際人才競爭,也似乎失卻優勢,人才外流有惡化之象。新加坡和香港此消彼長,更引起對香港的普遍擔憂。總之,對特區經濟的悲觀情緒正不斷蔓延。

當前面臨的困難和挑戰確實嚴峻,但香港經濟是否就此沉淪下去?前景變得暗淡無光?

核心優勢仍在

筆者認為恰恰相反。本文用意不在預測股市、樓市何時利空出盡、觸底反彈,也並非無視經濟低迷的困局。觀乎目前的至暗時刻,影響經濟長期發展的根本性因素易受忽略,但事實上,香港的核心優勢依然堅固,在新時代更顯巨大發展潛力。

香港特區的核心優勢為何?一言以蔽之,在於其獨特的制度。「一國兩制」之下,「一國」的基礎築牢後,就需要充分發揮「兩制」的特色。法治、自由市場、國際化是香港穩健制度的三個支柱。只要致力堅守,不斷予以完善和鞏固,就能保障經濟增長。過去幾年,儘管本港經歷了不少風雨,港大經管學院依然每年在全球招聘15至20位優秀學者,而吸引他們前來發展的就是這三個政策支柱;加上超低稅率、得天獨厚的自然條件和生活環境,香港確實是亞洲其他地方難以媲美的宜居城市。

潛力蓄勢待發

以下勾勒本港經濟發展潛力的幾個範疇。

首先,融入國家「國內國際雙循環」新發展格局,可為香港提供無窮商機。香港一直滿足於擔任外貿和金融的中介角色,對於內地經濟發展和市場變化趨勢缺乏深刻理解,可幸這種情況正在發生轉變。專業和商界人士對於了解內地情況的興趣正逐步提高。香港大學北京中心成立一年半以來的活動中,踴躍參與活動的港大校友和香港商界人士愈來愈多。另一方面,內地對香港的看法也有所不同,亦即從2019年之後的負面印象轉為正面積極;舉個例子,近兩年內地學生井噴式報考港大及特區其他高等學府,今年還會大幅增加。

雖然中國經濟同樣面臨種種困難和挑戰,需要透過重大調整和轉型升級,邁向持續增長,但整體經濟規模龐大,雙循環發展戰略中有很多領域可讓香港發揮重要作用。尤其明顯的是大灣區發展,一方面香港具備獨特優勢,可以多作貢獻;另一方面也為特區自身發展,提供一連串戰略機遇。剛剛成立的港大經管學院深圳校區,內設創業及創新孵化中心,眾多初創企業者熱烈申請加入,他們大多是到大灣區創業的香港學生和畢業生。得享香港賦予的國際化視野和資源之餘,又有當地的技術力量和市場資訊,配合良好的創業土壤,假以時日,這些兼具港深兩地優勢的初創幼苗,完全有機會成長為企業界的參天大樹。

大都會展鴻圖

其次,大變局下的世界政治經濟局勢,對香港既是挑戰,更是機遇。中美大國博弈之中,本港難免深受衝擊,前路荊棘滿途。然而危中有機,無論從政治或經濟角度看來,都應該得出這個判斷:香港別樹一幟的地位,未來將成為中國聯通世界更為重要的視窗,為國家的外循環發揮關鍵作用。香港自身的國際化,也正在從被動變為主動。昔日香港總是利用自身國際化環境,以招徠海外資本和人才,不過時移世易,守成的做法無法維持其國際化地位和形象。

特區政府最近一輪疫情防控政策的調整,為恢復與增強國際聯繫創造了必要條件,市民大眾都希望能盡快落實徹底開放的安排。官員最近也紛紛走出去,積極向各國推廣香港、尋求拓展機會,這種「主動國際化」的作為很有必要,也值得讚賞。在政府的積極推動下,國際金融領袖投資峰會本月初剛在港圓滿舉行,超過200名世界金融領袖克服阻力出席,充分展現了香港的國際吸引力。

與此同時,各界和民間也應積極主動加強國際交流和合作,為本港國際化增添活力。港大經管學院今年暑假組成代表團,前赴越南胡志明市和以色列特拉維夫市進行學術交流和教育合作,並參加香港大學設於兩地的中心的相關活動。當地業界同仁表示,疫情爆發之後,這是他們迎來的第一個香港代表團,冀望能盡快恢復與香港的交流協作。由此足見特區的「主動國際化」策略大有可為。

最後,香港內在的經濟轉型和升級值得期待。在上月宣讀的《施政報告》中,特首李家超除了在民生和管治能力提升等主要環節,提出不少有新意的針對性舉措,在人才政策和以創科為經濟引擎的北部都會區發展上,更有一些大膽政策突破和設想。「南金融、北創科」的願景以及文化創意產業的擴展,也令人對香港的前景充滿憧憬。

在港大經管學院9月發表的《香港經濟政策綠皮書2022》中,王于漸教授提出香港足以成為1000萬人口的大都會,廣泛吸引全球多元化人才,以利於經濟轉型和升級。當然,相關政策的實施尚需時日,實現上述願景的過程也必會遇上各種挑戰,但尋求變革和突破已經逐漸成為特區政府與社會的共識,力量已經在積聚,變化一定會發生。有為又有限的政府,高效而包容的市場,兩者在香港結合,必將驅動未來經濟走向長期繁榮。

在局勢變幻莫測的時代,最重要的是堅韌和適變,而這正是獅子山精神的精髓。歷史上每一次香港陷於危機,最終看好香港的都被證明是正確的,筆者寄望也相信這一次奇蹟會如常再次出現。

 

蔡洪濱教授
港大經管學院院長兼經濟學講座教授

(本文同時於二零二二年十一月九日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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