Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, said the Hong Kong economy would inevitably be hurt as the US was likely to raise tariffs on Chinese goods and toughen policies on technology transfers and tech investments in China. But he said he also expected the new tariffs to be capped at 60 per cent. The former Yale University professor pointed to one of Trump’s biggest supporters, tech billionaire Elon Musk, as a possible taming force in policymaking related to China during Trump’s second term.
He also anticipated more aggressive stimulus efforts from Beijing to counter the greater geopolitical uncertainty. “Thus, on balance, this US election outcome may actually be good for Hong Kong, at least to the extent that it makes the leadership in Beijing reprioritise economic development over politics,” Chen said.
In a recent interview with Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK), Prof. Heiwai Tang, Associate Dean of HKU Business School and Director of Asia Global Institute, provided an in-depth analysis of the implications of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election. He mentioned that Trump advocates for an "America First" policy, and the implementation of high tariffs and trade wars could disrupt global supply chains. However, this might benefit financial markets, as Trump is likely to use monetary policy, particularly interest rate cuts, to stimulate economic growth. Prof. Tang emphasised that while tariffs will undoubtedly impact Chinese exports, the effects may not be as severe as anticipated. He highlighted the conflict Trump faces between inflationary pressures and the desire to lower interest rates. He believes that while Trump will certainly impose tariffs on China, they are unlikely to reach the 60% level he suggests. Furthermore, he indicated that Trump may hesitate to implement a 10% tariff on allies in the short term. Regarding US-China relations, Professor Tang predicts that complete decoupling is unlikely because the US will continue to purchase non-sensitive items from China. He also suggested that Trump's policies could have a mildly positive effect on the global economy and could potentially aid Hong Kong in reclaiming its status as a financial hub.