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Home Research Thought Leadership In the Media
Climate change and Central Bank Policies

Climate change and Central Bank Policies

3 Nov 2021
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氣候變化與央行政策

2018年諾貝爾經濟學獎得主William Nordhaus在領獎致詞時說,技術革新帶人類走出石器時代,但氣候變化卻以最嚴峻的方式,威脅將人類打回原形。氣候變化的危機、對策及國家之間的互動,將會是本世紀的主要議題之一。上周日開始在蘇格蘭格拉斯哥舉行的COP26 會議,可能是有關討論的一個里程碑。

COP26即聯合國氣候變化綱要公約(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)下的第26屆締約國大會 (Conference of the Parties)。該會議自1995年開始每年舉行。2015年的第21屆會議,達成了著名的巴黎協議。各國的共識是讓全球氣溫升幅,與十九世紀工業化之前比較,最多上升攝氏2度,並盡力爭取只上升1.5度。各國同意大幅度減少碳排放,並定下「國家自定貢獻」(Nationally Determined Contribution,NDC),即本國的減排承諾。按當時各國的NDC總額計算,坊間普遍認為各國的NDC 目標不足以達標,但各國會每5年檢討和評估,並向上修訂NCD。原定去年召開的COP26,因新冠肺炎延遲到今年。這次會議的重點,就是檢討6年來全球減排的狀況和各國修訂後的NDC、以及下一步的政策。

左右地緣政治格局

要達到上述的1.5度升幅,全球的溫室氣體排放量要大幅減少。按國際能源署的資料,去年全球和能源有關的碳排放減少了5.8%,但這只是因為新冠肺炎導致經濟活動收縮,估計今年會回升。現時與工業化前相比,全球氣溫已上升了1.1度。

在COP26開幕前,G20峰會剛好在意大利羅馬召開,議程也包括氣候變化。峰會的20個成員國,佔全球碳排放總量的80%,本應更有責任地提出應付的方案及承諾,促進COP26的討論。然而,G20峰會的結論乏善足陳,不是原地踏步就是模棱兩可。COP26約200個國家地區的與會者,要在這約兩星期中達成協議,進一步應對氣候變化,將會困難重重。

氣候變化的負面影響,在經濟層面較為明顯。單看這些年來,世界各地因極端天氣導致的人命和財產損失,便不言而喻。這些損失也構成一定的金融風險。此外,氣候變化亦無聲無息地影響着地緣政治的格局。例如電動車市場的發展,增加了電池中某些金屬的需求,出產這些金屬的國家便奇貨可居。相反,多年來依靠出口化石燃料的國家,如沙地阿拉伯及俄羅斯,前景便需重新規劃。地球暖化下水平線上升,會迫使低窪及沿海地區的居民大規模遷徙,造成國際移民潮。美國在西太平洋的一些海軍基地也需要另覓容身之所,或會影響美國在印太地區的軍事部署。本來冰封的北極洋會因為溶雪而慢慢地騰出一些航道,這或會增加國際貿易的船運路線,也自然成為兵家必爭之地。

導致氣候變化的溫室氣體排放,是典型的負面外部效應,最直接有效的應對方案是通過稅收將排放的社會成本內化,並建立碳排放許可證市場,讓對排放有不同成本和需求的生產單位互相交易。此外,政府也可以補貼有關減排和開發新能源的科研項目。這些都可算入財政政策的範疇。大約在五、六年前開始,貨幣政策也被列為應付氣候變化的一項工具。

量化寬鬆多買綠色債券

英倫銀行的前行長卡尼(Mark Carney)大概是最早倡議央行政策要針對氣候變化的其中一人,他在2015年發表有關演講後,引來一些批評,指那是央行的「使命偏離」(mission creep)。其後,他得到好些同行的支持,包括現任歐央行行長拉加德(Christine Lagarde)及聯儲局理事會成員布雷納德(Lael Brainard)。後者被認為是可以威脅鮑威爾連任聯儲局主席的人選。

央行幫助解決氣候變化的看法,很快在全球各地被廣泛接受。在2017年底,有8家中央銀行成立了央行綠色金融網絡 (Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System,NGFS)。顧名思義,那是央行主動綠化金融的舉動。這個組織的央行成員,至上月底已增加至98家,包括中國人民銀行和香港金管局。

央行針對氣候變化的政策,可以監察金融機構的有關風險,也可以誘導金融機構貸款給某些綠色行業。前者的爭論較少,後者則大有商榷餘地。

央行的傳統功能,是穩定物價和提高就業,特別是前者。在2008年全球金融風暴後,金融穩定成為了全球央行主要的政策目的之一,央行也就多了執行宏觀審慎政策(macroprudential policy)的職能。氣候變化帶來的損失和不確定性,增加了各個不同領域的金融風險,央行在這方面自然責無旁貸。

至於將貨幣政策向綠色行業傾斜,以減少碳排放,這差不多就等同是產業政策。從外部效應的角度來看,要提高綠色行業的生產效率,便要增加高污染產業的生產成本,並減少綠色產業的生產成本。用央行的政策工具來說,便是減少貸款給高污染產業、多貸款給綠色產業。但同樣的結果,可以通過政府對前者徵稅、對後者補貼達致,為何不交由財政部處理?央行的相對優勢在哪?

或許會有這樣的想法,目前聯儲局和歐央行仍在進行量化寬鬆。既然要大量買債,那就不妨多買綠色債券,有人稱之為綠色QE。又或者在舊債期滿時,以取回的資金買綠色債券,這樣一來可保持基礎貨幣不變,不影響原有的貨幣政策;二來又可以輔助綠色產業。不過,若這裏說的是二手市場的債券,不影響有關企業的利息成本。央行作怎樣的買賣都無補於事。反而財政部的稅收補貼,還是行之有效。

貨幣政策非合適工具

但更根本的問題,是央行的使命是什麼?在公共經濟政策中,政府可以做的包括生產資源的分配、生產成果的再分配和穩定宏觀經濟。央行的功能一直都是後者,若要同時對不同行業或企業作貸款或利息的取捨,便混淆了貨幣政策和財政政策。這一來使央行的運作變得更加政治化,二來亦減少了央行的獨立性,這些都不利央行的傳統貨幣政策功能,削弱宏觀調控的效果。政策的目的多樣化了,但政策的效果也模糊了。還有,不同的政策之間可能有矛盾,如央行政策向綠色項目傾斜,但那些項目創造的工作崗位較其他項目為少,那便和央行的提高就業使命有所衝突。這會影響社會對央行維持政策目標的信心。

經歷了全球金融海嘯和新冠肺炎後,央行被賦予的職能愈來愈多,貨幣政策儼然成為經濟的萬應靈丹。除了氣候變化外,另一個二十一世紀的主要議題是貧富懸殊。也許過不了多久,央行也要負擔起收入分配及其他政治社會議題的責任。但無論是作綠色產業和污染產業之間的分配、或社會不同階層之間的分配,貨幣政策都顯得尾大不掉,並非合適的工具。

 

陸炎輝 港大經管學院榮譽副教授

(本文同時於二零二一年十一月三日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄。)

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