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In the Media

Home Research Thought Leadership In the Media
China’s A-share Market Embraces the Trend of Paying Cash Dividend

China’s A-share Market Embraces the Trend of Paying Cash Dividend

26 Jun 2024
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A股市場趕上現金分紅潮流

近期內地A股上市公司相繼公布去年業績和利潤分配方案,據中國上市公司協會統計,截至2024年5月2日,2023年共有3859家上市公司擬進行現金分紅,總額達2.24萬億元人民幣,較上年增加5.16%。這一成績的取得和中國證券監督管理委員會(中國證監會)長期以來通過政策引領的努力密不可分。本文對A股上市公司的現金分紅情況加以剖析。

派發股息誘因

投資者選擇股票作為獲利工具,主要通過股價上漲和取得現金分紅來實現收益。在成熟的股票市場,不少上市公司進行中期分紅甚至季度分紅,為投資者帶來經常性收益並增強其信心。另一方面,公司通過現金分紅,將超過投資需求的現金回饋給股東,可免公司管理層投資於低效的規模擴張(empire building)而浪費自由現金流,從而減輕管理層的代理問題【註1】。

投資者通常期望所投資企業能夠穩定並逐步增加現金分紅。因此,一旦企業開始實施現金分紅政策,應被視為一項長期承諾。若企業隨意削減或中斷現金分紅,或會引發投資者因擔憂企業發展前景而大量拋售股票,造成股價大幅下跌。

由於投資者對現金分紅的剛性期待,企業管理層在制定現金分紅策略時,往往傾向謹慎。這也解釋了為什麼在短時間內(如連續兩年),企業的利潤分紅比例和每股分紅水準都相對穩定,變化不大;這種穩定性稱為「現金分紅黏性」(dividend stickiness)。反之,若企業管理層突然大幅提高或降低分紅水準,難免會向市場傳遞出其對公司未來發展充滿信心或深感憂慮的訊號。

筆者的研究表明:A股市場長期分紅的企業,股價表現也十分出色。2008至2023年期間,持續現金分紅的上市公司有17家,經計算其自2009至2023年不包括現金分紅的持有期收益率(buy-and-hold return),發現明顯超過同期上海證券交易所綜合指數的持有期收益率,經幾何平均數計算的股票超額收益率為每年6.1%。由此可見,具持續穩定現金分紅水準的上市公司,透過二級市場也能為投資者提供可觀的資本增值。

因此,公司現金分紅佔利潤的比率、每股股息率(每股現金分紅/股價)以及這些指標的穩定性,都是投資者選擇股票投資的重要參考指標。

尚待持續分紅

儘管現金分紅對投資者和關注投資者的上市公司很重要,但傳統上持續分紅在A股上市公司中並不普遍。造成這一現象的主要原因是進行首次公開招股(initial public offering,簡稱IPO)和在上市後發行新股再融資(seasoned equity offering,簡稱SEO)的難度大,需經中國證監會的核准,過程較為複雜。根據東方財富資料,2023年A股再融資規模較2022年同比縮小了25%,定向增發規模創近10年來新低。

另外,由於股權較分散,美國市場的上市公司一般不願意發行新股,以免稀釋大股東的投票權。反觀A股上市公司股本結構較為集中,大股東持股比例偏高,所以不必顧慮投票權被新股過分稀釋。因此,上市公司傳統上不輕易將來之不易的現金分紅,而會優先考慮用諸公司的運營與投資。如上所述,經筆者統計,近16年來持續分紅的A股上市公司僅有17家。

上市公司除了現金分紅外,也可選擇通過回購在外發行股份而向參與回購的投資者支付現金【註2】。股份回購一般在上市公司股價較低時進行,藉此向市場傳遞價值被低估的訊號,並提升股價。因此,投資者並不預期上市公司定期進行股份回購,這意味着在是否選擇股份回購和回購的時機上,上市公司享有很大的靈活度。再者,回購也可以減少在外發行股本,並提升每股利潤和股票的潛在估值。

根據現有稅務安排,A股市場投資者通過買賣股票獲利,可免繳資本利得稅,因此在稅收方面,上市公司進行股份回購相比現金分紅理論上更具優勢。不過,A股上市公司進行股份回購近幾年才出現,目前市場整體回購規模並不大。相較而言,基於股份回購的優點,美股上市公司愈來愈偏好採取股票回購而不是現金分紅。據筆者研究,1998年,美股股份回購金額規模首次超過現金分紅;2010年至今,股份回購金額已穩定超過現金分紅。

現金分紅趨勢

筆者研究所得,近3年來A股上市公司實施現金分紅愈發普遍,分別共計3294、3446和3859家,分紅的公司佔比分別為70.4%、67.8%和72.4%;其中同時發行在香港交易所上市的H股的A股公司,其分紅比例在2021年和2022年分別為83.2%和81.2%。

就每股分紅與股息率而言,近3年A股實施現金分紅公司的每股分紅平均值(稅前)分別為0.31、0.32和0.30元人民幣;而實施現金分紅的公司的股息率平均值分別為2.20%、2.03%和1.82%。由於剛剛開始現金分紅的公司通常會採取傾向謹慎的分紅策略,市場整體平均分紅水準隨着更多公司開始派息而輕微下滑,屬於正常情況。對於同時發行在港交所上市的H股的A股公司,其每股分紅(稅前)2021年和2022年平均值分別為0.438和0.516元人民幣;其股息收益率在2021年和2022年平均值分別為3.02%和2.96%。

總體而言,A股上市公司進行現金分紅的公司數量和比例均呈上升趨勢,逐漸形成現金分紅的氛圍。其中,相對於純A股上市公司,H股上市公司為投資者提供更高的稅前股息收益率。

 

註1: Jensen, Michael C. “Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers.” The American Economic Review 76, no. 2(1986)︰323-329.

註2: 上市公司也可能發放特別的一次性現金分紅和股票股利(即送股)。因送股不涉及現金支付,其作用等同於股票細分。另外,公司偶爾也會發放另類股利來替代現金分紅。如本港某上市公司2021年底曾經以所持有的另一公司股票來發放股利。

鄒宏教授
港大經管學院金融學教授

沈子軻先生
港大經管學院碩士生

(本文同時於二零二四年六月二十六日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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