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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
The new US monetary policy framework

The new US monetary policy framework

2 Sep 2020
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美國貨幣政策新框架

上周四美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾在美國懷俄明州Jackson Hole的全球央行年會上發表重要講話,就美國運作了多年的貨幣政策框架作出修訂,受到全球金融界的矚目。聯儲局成立於1913年,百多年來,隨着美國經濟的演變、貨幣經濟學的理解和政策工具的發展,美國貨幣政策經歷了各種不同的改變。

貨幣政策可分為政策工具(如公開市場買賣)、中短期的政策目標(如聯邦基金利率)和最終目的(如就業水平)3個部分。這次聯儲局的政策修訂,主要在最終政策目的方面。聯儲局的貨幣政策,最終要達到所謂「雙重使命」,即最高就業水平和物價穩定。按傳統的菲利普斯曲線分析,這兩者之間有一定的矛盾,若要提高就業,便得接受更高的通脹。但聯儲局沒有定下這兩者在貨幣政策中的互相比重。

最高就業水平受到勞動力市場和經濟結構等各方面因素影響,因此很難設定一個數字目標。至於物價穩定,則以2%的通脹率為目的。這裏的通脹是基於個人消費開支指數而非消費物價指數,但兩者的分別並不影響以下討論。

就這兩個美國貨幣政策的最終目的,聯儲局上周都提出修改。有關最高就業,之前的論述是,貨幣政策的制定,視乎目前就業水平和最高就業水平的偏差。若目前就業已高於估計的最高水平,則傾向加息,反之則減息。但在新的框架下,只會考慮在低於最高就業水平時減息。換句話說,當經濟蓬勃發展,就業水平超過估計的最高水平時,聯儲局也可以不必過慮,毋須採取收縮性的政策。

事實上,以前的政策不單是在高於或低於最高就業水平時作對稱式回應,更有先發制人的部署,即在觀察到經濟已差不多充分就業時馬上加息,不等通脹上升成為事實才收緊銀根。最近例子是2015年12月的加息。在全球金融危機和多年的量化寬鬆後,即使當時的通脹率僅1.8%,失業率已下降至5.0%,接近傳統上充分就業的水平。殊不知隨後的失業率持續下跌,達到3.5%的歷史性水平,而通脹並沒有怎樣增加,因而有意見認為2015年的加息政策過早實施了。

上周另一個更改,得到較多媒體報道,將通脹的政策目的定在2%「平均」通脹率,而非本來簡單的2%。之前的2%可理解為通脹上限,但多年來美國的通脹都低於這個水平,平均只得1.4%。但既然如此,為何不乾脆降低目的通脹率至2%以下,如1.5%?這和預期通脹有關。

當名義利率不變,預期通脹低企等於實質利率上升,增加了借貸的成本,也減少了經濟活動和經濟增長,這並非聯儲局樂於見到的。當然,聯儲局可以減低名義利率來調低實質利率。但自全球金融危機後,美國的利息水平已接近零下限,減無可減。同樣,今年3月新冠肺炎在美國大規模爆發後,聯儲局再度將聯邦基金利率下調至接近零水平,若不採取負利率政策,聯儲局便沒有任何空間調整利率。

提高對通脹接受程度

市場對通脹預期基於生活中真正的通脹率。要提高預期通脹,便得容許通脹率上升。基於這個原因,聯儲局便將長遠通脹目的2%,由上限改為平均數值。既然過去一段長時間通脹率低於2%,那將來通脹率便可高於2%而仍然維持2%的平均。至於要追溯過去多長時間、及在將來多長的時間內追補,鮑威爾都沒有說明,並強調不會基於任何固定的方程式。不過,聯儲局在全球金融危機後,特別着重政策透明度和前瞻性指引,估計不會在這方面黑箱作業,日後應該會公布更多有關訊息,或許在兩周後的公開市場委員會議息時便會有進一步交代。由於這裏強調的是市場的預期通脹,因此沒有需要機械式地達到某一段長時間內準確的2%平均通脹率。

總的來說,聯儲局貨幣政策的新框架,提高了對通脹的接受程度,以及進一步將重點放在就業水平。背後的原因,是實質經濟增長長期放緩、及菲利普斯曲線的展平,即一定的失業率導致比以前較為輕微的通脹。

聯儲局這次對貨幣政策框架的檢討始於去年1月,比新冠肺炎的出現早了一年。在今年3月美國的疫情急轉直下之後,聯儲局和財政部迅即實施前所未有的擴張性政策。即使如此,美國第二季度的本地生產總值還是下跌了31.7%(年化)。新冠肺炎對經濟帶來的破壞和不確定性,增加了聯儲局貨幣政策新框架的合理性和認受性。

今年6月公開市場委員會會議中達到的一個共識,是目前的0至0.25%聯邦基金利率水平將會維持至2022年底。在經修訂的貨幣政策下,這個極低的利率水平甚至會維持更長的一段時間。

全球經濟受到新冠肺炎的重擊,各央行和政府部門均採取前所未有的大規模擴張性政策以挽救經濟。這無可厚非,但疫情過後就有關政策收拾殘局,將會是嚴峻的考驗。

2008年全球金融危機後,聯儲局採取了三輪量化寬鬆政策,而聯邦基金利率在0至0.25%區間內徘徊了整整8年,期間帶來了愈趨不平均的收入和財富分配。有關的貨幣政策導致資產價格膨脹,持有資產的投資者身家上升,但只能持有普通銀行存款的小市民毫無寸進。不平均分配財富是當前眾多國際政治經濟議題的主要因素,影響着民粹主義、貿易戰、美國選舉、英國脫歐、種族衝突和移民政策等等。

長期超低利率的另一個後遺症是債務的增加。債務多少不一定是問題,問題在於資金是否作比較合適的運用。在低利率環境下,龐大的資金少不免有些用於不應該的用途,而利率在篩選投資項目的功能也大大減弱。

十年多前當美國首次實施量化寬鬆政策時,聯儲局的資產在3個月內翻了一倍,由約1萬億增加至2萬億美元,引起對通貨膨脹的憂慮,再加上隨後數年另外兩輪的量化寬鬆,將聯儲局的資產提高約4.5萬億美元。但美國沒有較高的消費物價通脹,主要原因是新增加的基礎貨幣,大部分還是作為超額存款準備金留在銀行體系內,沒有轉化為消費者手中的購買力。

相比之下,為了應付疫情,聯儲局的資產由本年2月底的4.2萬億增加至5月底的7.1萬億。增幅之大和速度之快,前所未有。同時,有相當比例的新貨幣供應是以現金形式落入市民手中。因而這次貨幣供應增長的影響較為直接。不過,疫情迫使消費者留在家中,減少消費。貨幣的流通速度慢下來,物價上升的壓力暫時不大。但當疫情過後,消費意願重臨需求增加,而疫情期間因為停工及供應鏈斷裂導致商品供應減少,再加上聯儲局新的寬鬆政策,通脹會否重來,值得關注。

陸炎輝 港大經管學院榮譽副教授
(本文同時於二零二零年九月二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)​

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