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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
Relaxed Quarantine Policy: A Light in the Pandemic Tunnel

Relaxed Quarantine Policy: A Light in the Pandemic Tunnel

28 Sep 2022
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控疫復常 曙光初亮

近日香港新冠疫情回穩,特區政府於9月26日開始放寬入境檢疫安排,把實施一個多月以來的「3+4」門檻下調至「0+3」,亦即抵港人士毋須接受強制檢疫,只須進行3天醫學監察。顯而易見,此舉旨在掌控疫情、保障市民健康的大前提之下,盡量擴大香港連接國際的空間,讓經濟有序地重拾正軌,社會得以脫離困境。

疫情前後對照

疫情襲港幾近3年,旅遊業作為香港傳統四大支柱產業之一,期內嚴重受創,面對缺乏旅客和商務往來的情況,航空業更是委靡不振。政府統計數據【表1】顯示,2018年來港旅客人數高達6500萬以上,但在2021年疫情期間下跌至只有9萬多,跌幅超過99%!香港可謂與世隔絕。到了今年第二季,旅客人數才漸見回暖跡象【表2】。

香港旅遊發展局公布8月初每日平均約有1500人次訪港,而在「3+4」檢疫安排實施後的同月下旬,每日則錄得約2100人次訪港,僅佔疫前約1%而已。由本年1月至8月,訪港旅客約183600人次,其中約15萬人次(超過80%)來自內地,按年升差不多2.5倍。

隨着各國陸續放寬防疫限制,過去兩年被遏抑的旅遊需求逐漸浮現。國際航空運輸協會(IATA)總幹事Willie Walsh指出,國際旅遊今年首季升勢強勁;美國、歐洲、拉丁美洲等市場在航空旅遊的增長率均接近60%,亞太區卻受防疫措施嚴格限制而「嚴重滯後」。儘管俄烏戰爭持續,油價飆升導致機票價格增多10%至15%,但總體航空客運量的增長速度快過預期。總體而言,航空業可望在2023年回復至疫情前水平。

空運蓄勢待發

按國泰航空公布的8月份客貨運量數據,自8月中起,返港及經香港轉機的旅客人數有上升趨勢,尤其是從北美、歐洲出發的長途旅客。今年首8個月,載客人次較去年同期增加133.5%;期內載貨量較去年同期則下跌8%。該公司預計今年年底,客運航班運力可達疫情前水平約三分之一,而貨運航班運力則可達疫前水平約三分之二。

隨着特區政府本周放寬檢疫限制,相信旅遊業的嚴冬已過。以航空而言,由於航班運作複雜,要及時為機組及前線人員提供培訓等,重建整體運力不能一蹴而就,有關當局必須與業界緊密合作,維持本港的航空樞紐地位。

在《十四五規劃》和《粵港澳大灣區發展規劃綱要》的支持下,香港可透過國際機場及灣區內的交通網絡,拓展客源至整個灣區,驅動國際及國內雙循環,打造「機場城市」,從而強化國際航空樞紐地位。預料本年內將投入服務的香港國際機場第三跑道,將可大幅提高機場整體的運營能力,並預計在2030年整個跑道系統全面啟用後對本地生產總值可貢獻達5%。

旅遊基建鋪排

預期2024年年初前啟用的航天城項目「11 Skies」,集「機場經濟」和「橋頭經濟」於一身,是香港機場從純粹出入境運輸樞紐升格為「機場城市」的關鍵一環。聯同附近的港珠澳大橋、屯門至赤鱲角連接路及亞洲國際博覽館,形成香港獨特地標群,與杜拜國際機場相似,既通往全球各地,又可經港珠澳大橋直達其他灣區城市。灣區市民亦可乘交通之便,在香港國際機場轉機。若特區政府適時簡化入境與轉機手續,加強對外宣傳,以香港國際機場為中心的機場城市,將一躍成為覆蓋灣區8600萬人口的窗口。

重新擦亮品牌

事實上,疫情無礙本港興建和提升旅遊建設,例如西九文化區的M+與香港故宮文化博物館已先後於去年和今年開幕。耗資7.99億元、修整約一年的第六代山頂纜車亦已於上月啟用。鑑於這些大型旅遊基建項目相繼落成,香港在全球旅遊業中具備強大競爭優勢,相信疫後將可更上層樓。

近日香港大學袁國勇等4名醫學專家發文表示,由2020年初至今新冠病毒不斷變異,至目前流行的Omicron,本港新冠病毒粗病死率已經大幅下降,若已注射三針疫苗,則出現重症和死亡機率微乎其微。該文指自去年年底起,確診者粗病死率為0.59%,但若只聚焦第六波疫情(即由本年6月起計算),粗病死率下降至0.097%。新冠病毒已成風土病,再出現社區爆發的機會很微,應盡早放寬防疫政策。

疫下有十多萬專業人士選擇離港,其中會計界人才流失尤甚,香港總商會調查亦發現,有38%公司正計劃離港,其中14%指不會再回流。過去一年香港的入境檢疫措施比不少經濟體(包括新加坡)嚴厲,削弱原有競爭力。例如疫情前,展覽業每年為本港帶來超過580億元經濟效益,重振展覽業將有助各行業復甦,但疫下卻先後有多個大型國際展覽會被迫取消。

繼世界龍舟錦標賽移師泰國以及渣打香港馬拉松延至明年初舉行,皇家加勒比國際郵輪公司亦決定今年2月才移至新加坡的「海洋光譜號」不會重返香港,此對香港的國際形象難免造成不良影響。為了重新擦亮香港品牌,11月初舉辦的「國際金融領袖投資高峰論壇」及「香港國際七人欖球賽」將被視為香港對外重新開放的重要指標,朝着商業開放、經濟復甦的方向再邁出一步,以增加香港和國際間的聯繫與互動。

毋庸置疑,抗疫政策要基於科學數據,但亦要考慮經濟效益及社會需要。經濟不振,只會給國家帶來負擔,有負國家把香港規劃為國際金融中心的厚望。在整體社會復常路上,特區政府務須審時度勢,從速為本港的疫後發展制定策略性藍圖。

 

謝國生博士
港大經管學院金融學首席講師

何敏淙先生
港大經管學院經濟金融學助教

(本文同時於二零二二年九月二十八日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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