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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
DeepSeek vs. OpenAI: Shaping a New Global AI Order

DeepSeek vs. OpenAI: Shaping a New Global AI Order

12 Feb 2025
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踏入2025年,中國人工智能(AI)領域取得標誌性突破。深度求索(DeepSeek)推出的R1模型,以557萬美元的超低訓練成本(僅為GPT-4的5%)媲美美國OpenAI o1模型的性能表現。

從「追趕」到「並跑」的轉折

R1模型這一成就的關鍵在於其獨創性的科技路徑:利用純強化學習技術擺脫對監督微調數據的依賴,藉助「群體相對策略優化」(Group Relative Policy Optimization)演算法實現推理能力的自主進化。與此同時,其動態精度調節技術有助華為旗下昇騰AI平台的算力成本降低70%,而性能損失則只低於5%。尤其觸目的是,R1的開源模式打破了算力壟斷,支持開發者將大模型能力蒸餾為1.5B參數的小型版本,因而在東南亞、中東等新興市場迅速滲透。

美國OpenAI對此迅速作出回應,上月緊急發布了o3-mini推理模型。該模型主打可調節推理強度,在高強度模式下對科學、科技、工程、數學(STEM)領域展現出無可匹敵的統治力——在AIME 2024數學測試中取得87.3%的準確率,勝過R1的79.8%。其物理類比能力也被開發者譽為「教科書級別」,例如在四維超立方體內反彈小球的程式設計中,o3-mini對幾何結構與運動軌跡的分析精度高達97%。然而,其輸入輸出成本仍是R1的8倍,凸顯出閉源模式的效率瓶頸。

生態構建與地緣滲透

中國市場的獨特優勢體現在場景驅動的生態整合上。透過開放應用程式介面與行業定製策略,國內企業已深度嵌入醫療、教育、金融等垂直領域。以教育界為例,作業幫的大型語言模型通過逐步分析,提升中學生數學解題的效率達37%。這種本土化適配能力預計將推動內地AI大模型市場在2026年突破700億元人民幣,使用者每周平均使用頻率達4.5次,遠超歐美市場的2.1次。

美國企業則試圖依靠多模態AI功能穩固霸主地位。GPT-4o通過文本、語音和視覺的融合能力,在微軟Office智能助手中自動生成會議紀要和簡報排版等功能,企業用戶續費率高達89%。另一方面,o3-mini在非英語市場的表現卻顯露不足,在中文理解一環的準確率只及百度文心一言的82%,拓展東南亞市場的計劃也就舉步維艱。更為嚴峻的是,OpenAI預計2023至2028年的累計虧損將高達440億美元;公司行政總裁阿爾特曼(Sam Altman)罕見地承認「閉源策略可能犯下歷史性錯誤」,並啟動o3-mini免費開放,以吸引開發者。

美國科技霸權重構

近年來,美國在AI大模型領域憑藉閉源商業模式和專有技術,一直維持國際領先地位;然而,中國 DeepSeek-R1冒起,馬上引發一場嶄新的科技變革。R1模型通過開放創新的方式,達至核心演算法和模型共用,有利於前沿技術迅速反覆運算,同時也大幅降低科技壁壘。這一舉措對美國長期以來依賴封閉體系構建的科技霸權造成直接衝擊。

DeepSeek-R1 的開源,使環球科研機構、企業和獨立開發者能夠在一個開放透明的平台上,不但共同改進和應用AI技術,而且逐漸重塑科技標準和行業規則。各方藉助這一開源平台進行研發合作,加速達至創新成果和構建自主智能知識產權,從而開創國際科技生態中多極互動的新局面。這種模式正在促使科技管治由單一壟斷轉向開放協同,並為國際社會建立科技公平競爭的規則樹立典範。

面對異軍突起,美國政府與科技巨頭不得不調整其基於閉源模式的科技霸權體制。為了維持競爭優勢,美國正在探索如何在保障商業機密的同時,更加積極地參與制定國際規則與拓展跨國合作,致力平衡開放創新與保障所有權之間的關係。DeepSeek-R1的成功實踐表明,開源能夠釋放創新活力,亦能加速全球科技生態的健康演進,進而對美國的科技主導地位產生實質性挑戰。

香港充當科技冷戰的安全地帶

顯而易見,AI的迅猛發展和大規模模型在各行各業的廣泛應用,催化中美之間的劇烈競爭,呈現科技冷戰的危機。在這一背景下,特區政府應聚焦其國際金融中心、獨立法治與開放市場的制度優勢,著力打造一個中立監管平台連接中美雙方,而成為緩衝調節的試點城市。事實上,為確保AI既能安全發展,又能保持公平競爭,香港金融管理局現正和科技企業、研究機構攜手推出生成式AI沙盒,構建一個涵蓋模型安全、數據隱私、倫理審查與風險預警的專屬平台,各類企業和監管機構可在受控、獨立的環境下對AI演算法、數據處理流程和應用場景進行全面測試,及時識別與化解潛在風險。此一項目可為中美兩國的科技對話提供實證支援。

此外,特區政府積極搭建國際對話平台,主動與歐美、東南亞及中國內地的監管機構建立常規化的合作機制,全力在中美科技冷戰中發揮避風港的作用。通過定期舉辦以AI倫理、數據管治與風險管理為主題的政策研討會、專題論壇及雙邊交流,各方圍繞AI應用規範、模型透明度及跨境數據流動等熱點議題,進一步展開溝通與協作。除了有助於平衡各國利益、推動科技與監管同步向前,這種開放協商模式也為國際統一AI監管標準提供寶貴的香港實踐藍圖,進一步鞏固特區在全球科技管治中的樞紐地位。

開源與閉源博弈下的展望

在全球AI領域風雲變幻、競爭白熱化的時代,中美大模型的爭鋒既展現了AI技術的無限創新潛力,亦暴露了開源與閉源兩種模式各自面臨的風險與機遇。中國依託開源協作、演算法優化和務實創新不斷突破,而美國則通過閉源策略、全能整合及高性能應用牢牢佔據部分關鍵市場。這種互為競爭且互補的格局,正驅動全球科技標準和監管制度迅速演變,挑戰傳統管治模式。
憑藉作為國際金融中心並具備健全法制與開放市場的強項,香港特區政府宜利用跨境監管沙盒、多邊對話和區域合作,構建全鏈條技術監管制度,為應對中美大模型競爭提供全新管治思路。唯有政府、業界與國際監管機構協同創新,在開源活力與閉源保障之間取得平衡,香港才更能用好其豐富經驗和前瞻探索,在環球多極競爭中搶佔先機,為未來數碼生態管治創立務實的範例。

章逸飛博士
港大經管學院經濟學高級講師

(本文同時於二零二五年二月十二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

 

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