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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
Capitalisation of property taxes

Capitalisation of property taxes

21 Oct 2020
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物業稅的資本化

在房地產市場中,資本化指一個物業的價格取決於該物業所產生的所有未來收入及支出的總折現價值。也就是說,當物業帶來的收入增加時,樓價就會上升;反之,樓價則會下降。若以住宅單位而言,未來收入反映為出租服務的價格(即租金),而未來支出則包括物業稅等相關稅項,以及通貨膨脹所引致的貶值。因此,物業稅的變化足以影響樓價。在供應不變而置業者絕對理性的假設下,物業稅的變化會全數反映在樓價上,這種情況可稱為「完全資本化」。

瑞典經驗可資借鑑

2008年初,瑞典政府實行了一項「廢除」式稅項寬減:物業稅稅率由物業總價值的1%降至0.75%;同時,若應繳物業稅額超過6000瑞典克朗(約等於5200港元),超額部分可獲豁免。在這項政策下,該國境內約有一半物業符合超額的規定,因而獲得為數可觀的物業稅豁免。

為研究有關豁免對瑞典樓價的影響,兩位經濟學者Elinder和Persson利用雙重差分模型(difference-in-differences model),分析了2006至2008年間為數超過十萬的物業成交價【註1】。此一模型假設符合豁免資格的物業和不合資格的物業,在沒有推行稅項豁免的情況下,呈現同樣的價格百分比變化趨勢;然後通過對比實行豁免後,兩者變化趨勢的差異,從而推算出豁免政策對樓價的影響。由於已經考慮樣本集的選擇偏差,因此雙重差分模型能可靠地估計物業稅變化的真實作用。

2017年,基於物業的資本化理論,Elinder和Persson就寬減物業稅對瑞典樓價的影響進行研究,發現當物業價格高於第99百分位(即價格高於樣本集中99%的樣本)時,物業稅減免比例約為85%,導致的樓價升幅約為8%;當物業價格高於第95百分位時,物業稅減免比例約為77%,導致的樓價升幅約為4%;而當物業價格低於第95百分位時,物業稅減免比例約為55%,但樓價趨勢卻沒有明顯變化。由此可得出的結論是:只有當物業稅的有效稅率變化夠大時,樓價才會受到影響;而且稅率變化愈大,樓價的反應愈大,這正符合資本化理論的預測。

資本化理論的參考作用

然而,它也有其不足之處。資本化理論假設置業者夠理性,足以正確認識物業稅制的變化,並相應調整願意支付的樓價,但這在現實中有時並不成立。例如,在完全資本化的情況下,上文提及兩類高價物業(高於第99、第95百分位)的漲幅應分別為16%和14%,然而實際數字卻僅得8%和4%,與預測數字相差頗大,顯示兩類物業存在資本化不足的情況。此外,樓價較低物業(低於第95百分位)更出現零資本化現象,也就是置業者對稅率變化不敏感,沒有將物業稅負擔減輕這一因素納入對樓價的考量。

另一方面,在對美國密西根州安娜堡(Ann Arbor)住宅市場的研究中,美國經濟學者Bradley發現了過度資本化的情況【註2】。由於該區物業稅基於成交時的樓價而徵收,因此物業兩次轉手之間相隔時間愈久,成交價格相差愈大,新舊物業稅的差額亦會愈大;再者,因為物業稅稅基只在每年1月重估,所以物業的下家在置業當年內仍然只須支付舊物業稅(低稅)。儘管稅基重估之後(翌年1月),他們將要支付的新物業稅就高得多(高稅),但平均來看,每當低稅減少1美元,置業者便願意多支付29美元;而這29美元恰恰相當於3%真實利率下,物業稅由高稅減為低稅,並被完全資本化時對樓價的影響。然而,由於低稅僅適用於置業當年,因此置業者實際上低估了物業稅的負擔。由此可見,即使置業者有意識地將物業稅納入樓價考量,他們或會因為對稅制了解不足而錯誤出價。綜合以上兩點,可以看出資本化理論雖然在理性假設下對樓價有很好的預測,但在更複雜的現實環境,它並不是一個準確的行為模型。

儘管資本化理論有美中不足之處,它對地產政策仍具參考價值。在香港,政府只對出租物業徵收基於租金收入的物業稅,因此稅基較窄,作為政策工具可能不足以影響樓市。筆者建議,利用香港稅基最寬的房產稅──差餉,來作為調控樓價的主要工具。根據資本化理論,當差餉增加時,置業者會降低願意付出的樓價,有助壓低成交價格,遏止樓價上漲。但至於樓價對加差餉的敏感度,或者說差餉的資本化程度,仍有待相關的實證分析。不妨考慮的是,由一個適中的稅率開始,根據市場反應持續作出調整,從而確定合適的差餉稅率。歸根究柢,要使本港樓價可以負擔,差餉稅率可能需要顯著提高。

 

註1: Elinder, M. and Persson, L. (2017). “House price responses to a national property tax reform”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 144: pp. 18–39.

註2: Bradley, S. (2017). “Inattention to deferred increases in tax bases: How Michigan home buyers are paying for assessment limits”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(1): pp. 53–66.

 

程騰歡 港大經管學院副教授
牟昊鑫 港大經管學院研究助理

(本文同時於二零二零年十月廿一日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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