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FT Chinese Column

Home Research Thought Leadership FT Chinese Column
Silver Lining of Trade War 2.0 for the Chinese Economy

Silver Lining of Trade War 2.0 for the Chinese Economy

1 May 2025
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貿易戰下中國經濟的危與機

2018年3月22日,特朗普政府根據「301調查」對中國商品加徵關稅時,學界對「貿易戰」一詞仍頗爲謹慎,擔心會進一步激化矛盾。然而,2025年4月,特朗普簽署行政令,對180多個國家和地區加徵10%的「最低基準關稅」,甚至對日本、韓國等盟友徵收超過20%的關稅。毫無疑問,美國掀起的關稅戰已經在中美之間,甚至全球範圍,引發一場後果難以預測的貿易戰。

筆者認爲,特朗普近期的一系列關稅政策雖看似反覆無常,其核心目標其實很明確:第一是緩解美國嚴峻的債務危機。特朗普政府大徵關稅以期增加政府收入,同時以關稅爲籌碼迫使其他國家購買美國的產品、服務、自然資源及軍火等,增加美國的出口。 另外,由特朗普的新任經濟顧問米蘭(Stephan Miran) 提出的「海湖莊園協議」(Mar-a-Lago Accord)表明,美國可能要求外國央行出售美元儲備以令美元貶值,同時各國還需要購買美國的超長期國債,確保美債市場穩定,最終達到減輕美國債務壓力的目的。

需要注意的是,這樣激進的關稅政策是否能有效緩解債務壓力仍然是未知的。多位知名經濟學家,以及美國前財政官員,均認爲美國在今年將面臨較大的通脹壓力甚至陷入經濟衰退。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也因此將今年美國的增長預期從2.7%調低至1.8%。

特朗普的第二個目的,是透過擾亂目前已經成形的全球供應鏈,削弱中國在供應鏈的地位,抑制中國的發展速度,以強化美國的經濟領導力。然而這個目標同樣極具挑戰性。自2018年第一輪中美貿易戰開始,中資企業通過「中國+1」策略(即在海外建立備份生產基地)和間接貿易繞開了部分關稅壁壘。這個原本意圖孤立中國的計劃,反而令中國與東南亞,南美以及中東等地的國家展開了更多的貿易來往,建立了更深入的投資與合作關係,美國的供應鏈重構計劃並未完全奏效。

 

中美雙方的未來走向

短期內特朗普可能會根據國際反應調整關稅政策,甚至對部分示好國家降低稅率。但長期來看,美國對華關稅仍可能高於2018年的水平。若兩大經濟體持續高關稅對抗,即便僅持續數月,也將對雙方經濟造成嚴重傷害,最終可能其中一方不得不讓步。

面對貿易壁壘,中資企業應繼續推進「中國+1」策略,開拓不同的市場以提升應對地緣政治風險的能力。目前國內企業競爭愈加激烈,「不出海就出局」已成爲許多企業共識。但需要提醒的是,「亂出海」同樣值得警惕。海外市場並非萬能解藥,文化衝突、勞工問題、政策合規等挑戰可能比國內競爭更復雜。企業家需理性評估投資回報率,明確出海目標,避免盲目擴張。

此外,中國龐大的內需市場爲企業提供了轉型空間。長期來看,國內的消費需求與發展空間比較樂觀。在人工智能、高端製造等行業的技術創新令中國企業的市場競爭力大幅提升。而政府也積極提供政策支持,近期已陸續推出了包括「以舊換新」、數碼產品國家補貼等提振消費的措施,同時也計劃通過育兒補貼、提高養老金等途徑提高收入。今年第一季度的國內消費超過此前預期,可見各項促進消費的措施已初見成效。

 

國內消費潛力尚待發掘

不過,當關稅開始影響出口後,今年消費是否能穩步升溫仍然需要觀察。另外,疫情之後的收入增長放緩,房市走弱等因素也是令消費疲軟的重要因素。再加上地緣政治和國際貿易的衝擊,短期內消費可能難有大幅提升。在此期間,企業仍需要主動把握海外市場,並謹慎調整自身策略。

消費難以快速提升的一個主要原因是中國極高的居民儲蓄率。2024年國內居民儲蓄率超過43%,爲全球主要經濟體當中最高。 而居民人均消費支出比重僅爲46%,低於56%的世界平均水平,更遠低於其他主要經濟體60%-70%的水平。事實上,從90年代以來,儲蓄率就一直處於高位,且在金融危機、疫情等危機時期還會高於其他年份。

多年來很多經濟學家嘗試解釋中國高儲蓄率的成因,其中國際貨幣基金組織前首席經濟學家布蘭乍得(Olivier Blanchard)在2006年就曾發表文章討論。他認爲大眾相信經濟會持續高速增長而人口將快速下降,加上社會福利網尚未完善,因此多數人選擇通過「儲蓄養老」來對抗未來可能出現的風險。另外2000年代初期房地產市場快速擴張及創業浪潮興起,大眾關於購房及創業的計劃也令很多人選擇增加儲蓄而限制消費。

多數經濟學家認同中國應該設法降低儲蓄率,釋放更多消費潛力。然而過去二三十年,房價高企,人口降低,以及出口佔比高,收入增長有限等導致高儲蓄率的條件持續存在。

中美第一階段貿易戰開始後,從政府到企業都開始意識到過度依賴出口的模式令自身很容易會受到地緣政治風險的影響,因此應該轉而加大力度開發國內市場。2020年政府提出的經濟「雙循環」正是將更多資源和精力投入國內市場的重要一步。新一輪的貿易戰,雖然會帶來了更多的挑戰與不確定性,但同時也很有可能創造新的機會,激發國內新的的消費潛力。在以舊換新,增加補貼等手段之後,可以預見未來各級政府可能會進一步通過發放消費券,利息或稅賦減免等手段進一步刺激消費。

 

結語

特朗普的關稅政策非一時興起,而是一場目標明確的戰略行動。對中國而言,短期壓力雖大,但長期來看,通過產業鏈韌性建設、內需市場挖掘和理性出海,中國經濟仍具備較強的抗風險能力。關鍵在於保持戰略定力,在變局中尋找新的增長點。

 

鄧希煒教授
港大經管學院副院長(對外事務)、馮國經馮國綸基金經濟學教授、亞洲環球研究所所長

(本文同時于二零二五年五月一日載于《FT中文網》「明德商論」專欄)

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