Events

Secular Decline in Modern China? Wage Evidence from Hydraulic Constructions and Rural Casual Work in Suzhou and Shanghai

Scholars have long debated whether the Chinese economy has been in a secular decline since the nineteenth century. During this Quantitative History Webinar, Ziang Liu of the Centre for Quantitative History, HKU Business School, will present wage evidence from local hydraulic construction projects in Suzhou, Shanghai, and other Lower Yangzi cores that challenges this thesis within the region. Throughout the nineteenth century, the conscription system used to mobilise labours irreversibly shifted towards market hiring. While the administrative system still functioned as a labour pool, the market dynamics determined worker wages. Although wages saw a mild decline from the 1820s to the 1860s, a substantial improvement followed. The most significant change took place in the early twentieth century when wage trends broke through the typical decline-rebound cycle and moved towards intensive growth. Moreover, wage differentials between unskilled and semi-skilled labours, as well as between casual and stable employment, indicate a growing integration of the labour market across rural and urban sectors and industries in the Lower Yangzi Delta.

Discussant: Kaixiang Peng, Professor of Economics, Wuhan University
(The discussion will be conducted in Mandarin, accompanied by English presentation)

Live on Zoom on Thursday, May 23, 2024
16:00 Hong Kong/Beijing/Singapore
09:00 London | 17:00 Tokyo | 18:00 Sydney | Click here to view your local time

The Quantitative History (QH) Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The QH Webinar Series, now entering its fourth year, is co-organized by Centre for Quantitative History at the HKU Business School and International Society for Quantitative History in partnership with Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. The Series is now substantially supported by the Areas of Excellence (AoE) Scheme from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. [AoE/B-704/22-R]). 量化歷史網上講座系列由香港大學陳志武和馬馳騁教授聯合發起，旨在介紹前沿量化歷史研究成果、促進同仁交流，推廣量化方法在歷史研究中的應用。本系列講座由香港大學經管學院量化歷史研究中心和國際量化歷史學會承辦，及香港人文社會研究所全力支持。從2023年開始，系列得到中國香港特別行政區研究資助局卓越學科領域計劃的重要資助 (項目編號[AoE/B-704/22-R])。

Conveners:
Zhiwu Chen
Chicheng Ma