Events

“Peony Bubble” in the Tang Dynasty (Webinar in Mandarin)

Speculative bubbles and crises have accompanied financial markets since their beginning or even earlier. The much-studied Dutch tulip mania of the 17th century is commonly known as the earliest speculative bubble in human history. Professor Weipeng Yuan of Shanghai Jiaotong University and his co-authors will take us further back by showing that during the Tang Dynasty (618-907 AD), the Chinese elites and commoners alike feverishly speculated on peonies, pushing peony prices to the sky. Their research is based on historical documents from the Tang and Song dynasties, such as poems, lyrics, and manuscripts, which allow them to trace the history of peony cultivation, consumption, trading, and speculation.

In this Quantitative History Webinar, Professor Yuan will present a socioeconomic picture of Tang China’s peony bubble, enriching our understanding of speculative bubbles and financial crises in human history. Boosted by high speculative energy and facilitated by the trading in forward peony contracts, peony prices reached unimaginable levels and fluctuated wildly during the Tang Dynasty. The peony mania in Tang China shared many similarities with the Dutch tulip bubble, except that it happened about eight centuries earlier.

Weipeng’s co-authors: Zhiwu Chen (HKU) & Miao Wang (Tsinghua)

Discussants: Ting Chen (Baptist) & William Guanglin Liu (Lingnan)

Live on Zoom on October 6, 2022
16:00 Hong Kong/Beijing/Singapore
09:00 London | 17:00 Tokyo | 19:00 Sydney

The Quantitative History Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The Series, now in its third year, is co-organized by the International Society for Quantitative History, HKU Business School, and Hong Kong Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences. 量化歷史網上講座系列由香港大學陳志武和馬馳騁教授聯合發起並舉辦，旨在介紹前沿量化歷史研究成果、促進同仁交流，推廣量化方法在歷史研究中的應用。本系列講座由國際量化歷史學會、香港大學經管學院和香港人文社會研究所全力支持和承辦。

Conveners:
Professor Zhiwu Chen
Dr. Chicheng Ma