Better Safe Than Sorry: Strategic Nay-Saying in Idea Evaluation
SPEAKER
Prof. Linus Dahlander
Professor
ESMT Berlin
ABSTRACT
Managers often struggle to evaluate novel ideas, which by their nature have no proven commercial and technological value yet. Their evaluations can be overly optimistic or overly pessimistic, either over- or underestimating the idea’s actual performance. How do managers respond to these evaluation errors? We answer this question using unique panel data from the idea management system of a large firm in the aviation industry. With a difference-in-differences framework, we find that managers reject more ideas following overestimation errors but are unresponsive to underestimation errors. We explain this finding with strategic nay-saying: fearing the career costs of additional errors, managers preemptively reject ideas because their value remains unknown. We also consider alternative accounts of managers’ error responses, including learning from errors and intensified search for information, but find inconsistent evidence. Our study uncovers a new source of managerial conservatism rooted in an asymmetry in the observability of false negatives and positives.




