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In the Media

Home Research Thought Leadership In the Media

Promoting Import to Improve Export Trade and Trade Surplus

12 Dec 2018
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進出口和貿易盈餘

從今年三月開始,美國特朗普政府正式在貿易上向中國宣戰。美國對2500萬美元中國進口貨物徵收25%關稅,理由之一是兩國貿易存在長期和嚴重不平衡,例如2017年美國一方逆差就高達3750億美元。筆者在先前文章中早已分析過中美貿易逆差的原因,在此也就不贅了。

進口博覽的啟示

今年11月5日至10日,中國政府在上海舉辦了第一屆中國國際進口博覽會。據報導,進口博覽會吸引172個國家、地區和國際組織參會,3600多家企業參展,超過40萬名境內外採購商到會洽談採購。交易採購成果豐碩,按一年計,累計意向成交578.3億美元。習近平主席親臨博覽會並發表講話。全球進出口博覽會多不勝數,但中國國際進口博覽會卻是首個以進口為主題的大型國家級展會,可說是中國的創舉。當首次聽聞的時候,覺得有點不可思議。因為各國大都儘量向外推銷本國產品(出口),而不是對內推銷外國的產品(進口),背後原因自然不難理解。

我們要問的是,一、舉行進口博覽會和促進進口,能否達到減少貿易盈餘的目的;二、進口對本國企業有何影響?對這兩個問題,表面的答案似乎很簡單,就是:一、進口有助降低貿易盈餘;二、進口會打擊本國企業。但事實並非如此,主要原因是大部分進口都是用來生產的中間貨物(intermediate goods),而不是最終消費貨品(consumption goods)。上述表面答案源自我們對進口最終消費貨品的聯想;換句話說,在進口最終消費貨品的同時,本國企業就會受到衝擊,本地進口多了,貿易盈餘自然就會減少。但是,如果我們進口的是用來生產的中間貨物,這一邏輯就不成立了。簡單來說,進口中間貨物有助提高本國企業的生產能力,從而促進出口。這樣,不僅本國企業不會受到打擊,反而惠及出口甚或貿易盈餘。

實證研究的發現

最近我和香港大學的同事和博士生就專門研究了此一問題。世界上大部分國家的進口產品中,中間貨物總多於消費貨品。我們根據聯合國2016年的資料繪製圖表(【圖】),把每個國家的進口按資本貨物(capital goods;黑色部分)、生產的中間貨物(藍色部分)和最終消費貨品(淺藍色部分)的百分比分類。圖中顯示,各國進口的最終消費貨品都不到30%,中間貨物的比例則最大。在中國的進口中,中間貨物所佔比例更高達接近八成。

根據不同國家的資料,文獻中大量研究已經發現,進口資本貨物和中間貨物有利於進口企業大大提高生產率;主因是中間貨物的種類擴充了,品質提高了,價錢低了。同時,進口資本貨物 (例如生產線、機器)的質量不只比國內高,而且往往帶有高新技術。

我們利用中國的資料,經過觀察、分析各企業的情況後,發現三個規律。首先,幾乎所有企業進口的資本貨物都比中間貨物少。其次,相對於僅進口中間貨物的企業,進口資本貨物的企業不但勞動生產率較高,生產規模較大,投資於研發的可能性也較高。第三,與進口中間貨物相比,進口資本貨物後,企業將具備較多機會開展研發,生產力和規模的增長更見迅速。

通過進口進行國際採購,是企業生產力賴以增長的強大動力。基於中國企業從2000年至2006年的資料進行分析,我們特別比較了進口資本貨物和中間貨物的生產力效應,發現雖然資本進口僅佔總生產要素進口的六分之一,但其對生產率增長的貢獻佔總國際採購50%以上。雖然資本貨物和中間貨物的進口都會對生產力產生直接影響,但資本進口還具有強大的動態效應和研發誘導效應。我們發現,在資本貨物進口產生的生產率增長中,有25%來自動態效應。

有關研究結果對一個國家貿易開放和關稅自由化方面,發揮清晰明確的指導作用。舉例來說,中國於2001年加入世界貿易組織後,將資本貨物的關稅和中間貨物的關稅大幅降低,而且資本貨物的關稅降低得更多。我們的模擬結果顯示,從2002年到2006年,關稅降低使進口企業的平均生產率提高約近1.5%。在增長生產率中,82%是基於平均關稅率下降所得,18%則由關稅結構變化(即資本貨物的關稅降幅大於中間貨物)而產生。也就是說,整體關稅下降固然重要,關稅結構的調整同樣舉足輕重。

回到上文所提問題,其實在上海舉辦的中國國際進口博覽會,意向進口最大的項目是智能和高端設備,這非常符合我們研究的分析。所以,進口既很可能促進本國企業的生產能力,也會增加出口。

【圖】 世界各國進口貨物比例對照

丘東曉 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院副院長兼鐘瀚德基金教授(經濟發展學)

(本文同時於二零一八年十二月十二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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