HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
  • 繁
  • 简
Type To Search
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
Type To Search
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
    • Overview
      • Message from the Dean
      • Vision & Mission
      • Milestones
      • Partnerships & Global Network
      • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
      • Rankings & Accreditations
      • Corporate Collaboration
    • Leadership
      • Faculty Management
      • International Advisory Council
    • Our Stories
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Portal
    • Campuses
  • Programmes
    • Undergraduate
    • Masters
      • MAA
      • MAcct
      • MCGRM
      • MEcon
      • MFWM
      • MFin
      • MFFinTech
      • MGM
      • MSAF
      • MSc(BA)
      • MScMktg
      • MWM
    • MBAs & EMBAs
      • MBA
      • IMBA
      • HKU EMBA
    • DBA
    • PhD
    • Executive Education
  • People
    • Faculty
    • Post-Doctoral Fellows
    • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
    • Research Postgraduate Students
    • Administration
  • Research
    • Thought Leadership
      • Latest Research Publications
      • HKEJ Column
      • FT Chinese Column
      • In the Media
    • Academic Areas
    • Faculty Members
    • Research Grants
    • Seminars & Conferences
      • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
    • Research Centres & Institutes
    • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
    • HKU Knowledge Exchange
    • HKU Scholars Hub
    • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
    • School News
    • In the Media
    • Press Release
  • Career
    • Recruit our Talents
    • Student Career Development
    • Career Opportunities
      • Faculty Recruitments
      • HKU Career Site

In the Media

Home Research Thought Leadership In the Media
Early warning of FEDS tightening monetary policy

Early warning of FEDS tightening monetary policy

28 Jul 2021
Share on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on WhatsappShare on LinkedInShare on Email
聯儲局由鴿轉鷹的預警

當前冠狀病毒病大流行之下,經濟復甦一如2008年金融危機之後,需靠央行長期保持低利率政策。2020年初,美國聯邦儲備局(聯儲局)把利率由1.75厘大幅降至0.25厘,並推行量化寬鬆政策,以拯救經濟。隨着今年年初通脹升溫,市場預期擴張性貨幣政策將有所調整。聯儲局於本年6月宣布議息結果,0厘至0.25厘的聯邦基金利率維持不變。

主席鮑威爾透露,聯邦公開市場委員會已就縮減資產購買計劃進行了討論,進一步強化外界對聯儲局減少買債的預期。

貨幣環境正常化

聯儲局大部分成員預計在2023年前會加息至少兩次。市場估計,聯邦公開市場委員會實際最早會在2022年首季開始減少購買資產。聯儲局將加息預期提前至2023年,反映美國經濟基礎更為穩固,通脹亦將會長期上升。值得留意的是,聯儲局18名成員中有7名預期局方會在2022年加息,顯示市場對美國未來幾個季度經濟全面復甦的共識日漸加強。

聯儲局貨幣政策的最終目標,一是維持物價穩定,實現2%的平均通脹目標;二是實現充分就業。上月美國消費物價指數達5.4%,是1991年年底以來最大升幅。針對通貨膨脹,聯儲局放慢買債步伐是正確的方向,但若局方的時間表比市場預期快,或會令市場出現波動。本月上旬,聯儲局的逆回購工具創下約1萬億美元的紀錄,銀行間充斥着大量廉價資金,並透過極低利率逆流到聯儲局,這亦是支持政府減少買債的原因。

美國貨幣政策何時可以重拾正軌?除了貨幣流動性以外,通脹和失業率也是重要考慮因素。勞動市場的結構性問題取決於財政政策和疫情,而非貨幣政策。若經濟創新投資不足,勞動力下滑,須透過結構性改革,促進產業升級與經濟轉型,方可帶動持續增長。長期維持超低利率亦會加速勞動市場的扭曲。一旦經濟過熱(亦即在充分就業情況下,通脹仍然超過平均2%),聯儲局才會加息。要是美國經濟陷入滯脹,雖然目前機會甚微,但也是加息條件之一。

就業復甦的期望

上月美國非農業就業職位增加85萬個,較預期中的72萬為多;失業率則為5.9%,高於預期的5.6%。從非農業就業數據可見,就業市場復甦仍然存在結構性問題,恢復速度參差,服務業雖然復甦加快,但就業水平仍未及疫情之前。加上政府大力補貼失業人士,降低他們重投職場的誘因,進一步減慢就業復甦。非農業職位較疫前相差800萬個,即使市場每月能增加數十萬個新增職位,亦需約1年才可望重回舊日水平。部分製造業更因供應鏈瓶頸問題,呈就業放緩跡象。

受疫情影響,供應鏈投入價格上升,以致2021年1月生產者價格指數(Producer Price Index;簡稱PPI)按年增幅達5%,刷新10年來的最高紀錄。剛公布的6月PPI仍較5月增加1%,比去年同期增加7.3%;同月製造業採購經理人指數(Purchasing Managers’ Index)更達62.6,超過預期的61.5。企業因此已提高產品售價來收回成本。由需求驅動、供應緊張的經濟,通常會引發通貨膨脹,但美國勞動力市場正在擺脫困境,預計今年第三季將恢復就業強勁增長。

逐步退市的框架

相對於啟動時機,「收水」的節奏與規模更形重要,皆因聯儲局已在上月示意提早加息,市場自然預期貨幣政策將會有所調整。回顧2013年的經驗,時任聯儲局主席貝南奇當年5月22日向市場發放縮減買債的訊號,但到12月18日才正式採取行動,直至2014年10月29日才完成整個過程。有鑑於此,聯儲局可能於明年首季開始將買債金額下調,若每月縮減150億美元,大概需經6至8次會議(6至12個月)方能完全撤除量寬。

此前,聯儲局可能最快在今年8月或9月宣布縮減資產購買的策略。與會者表示,聯儲局希望在正式發表前,減少購買按揭抵押證券(Mortgage-Backed Securities,簡稱MBS)。現時該局正以每月1200億美元的規模購買債券,當中800億美元用於國債,400億美元則購買MBS。筆者預期聯儲局會每個月首先減少購買MBS 100億美元,而會保持購買國債,原因有二:

首先,紐約聯儲銀行早前多次對樓市上升發出警告,並已開始少量沽售所持的MBS,就是逐步減持的訊號。再者,拜登政府正為其基建方案爭取支持,由於開支規模超過萬億美元,預計財政部因需發行巨額國債,而要聯儲局維持買債規模。

通脹升溫,投資者憂慮債券價格下跌而加以拋售,導致美國10年期國債收益率暴漲。隨着聯儲局近期表示將提早加息,美債息逐漸回穩。數據顯示,在孳息率上升的大前提之下,美國及環球股票仍可帶來回報,這與經濟復甦及企業利潤恢復的時機吻合。對於黃金及加密貨幣等不能產生任何收益的資產而言,這將是個挑戰。估值較高的股票亦不穩,因為其昂貴估值的一部分要依賴充足的流動性支持,而當前金融體系的流動性正逐漸被撤回;美國科技公司亦可能面對更加波動的時期。

儘管聯儲局對政策利率走向的預測轉趨鷹派,但10年期美國國庫券孳息率已跌至低於1.5厘,為3月初以來的低位。短期債券則反應較大,2年期美國國庫券孳息率升至0.25厘,可見投資者逐步消化政策正常化的消息。即使長期債券孳息率未見急升,美元亦會在鷹派推動下走強,除日圓外,6月大多數成熟市場貨幣兌美元匯率下跌約3至4%。

前路障礙尚存

高利率將成為所有背負廉價債務借款人的重擔,尤其是主權政府和企業。在2020年,各國政府用於刺激經濟的財政債務躍升16.3萬億美元,增幅達20%。

而美國政府的公共債務在2020財政年度更增加超過3萬億美元,佔GDP 120%,為第二次大戰後的最高水平。以為經濟增長可讓債務問題自動解決,無疑是一廂情願的想法。

長遠而言,美國沉重的債務有礙整體經濟發展。美國國會預算辦公室預計,到2051年,單是聯邦政府的債務將高達GDP的202%。自疫症爆發以來,美國企業承擔的新債務已有1.5萬億美元之多。在2020年,家庭債務增長2.9%至14.6萬億美元。現時利率低企,借款人在償還方面尚可應付;若利率攀升,則存在引發壞賬的風險,高利率亦會增加借款人的再融資成本,並削弱其融資能力。

聯儲局上月發表的聲明指出,今後的經濟發展,勢將繫於疫情的走勢。疫苗接種的進度,將有望持續減輕當前公共衞生危機對經濟所造成的影響,但經濟前景面臨的風險依然存在【註】。正如本文所列種種,同樣預示經濟復甦前景並非康莊坦途。

 

【註】:Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 16 June 2021

 

謝國生 港大經管學院金融學首席講師、新界鄉議局當然執行委員

何敏淙 港大經管學院經濟金融學助教

(本文同時於二零二一年七月二十八日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

疫市數碼轉型 HR責任擴大遇難題27 Jul 2021
港大經管學院:家庭成員間擁有共同好友愈多 災害發生後通訊有更多互動表現2 Aug 2021
Trending
How Can Hong Kong Retailers Survive the Surge of Mainland E-commerce?
How Can Hong Kong Retailers Survive the Surge of Mainland E-commerce?
Prof. Xi LI
Recently, mainland e-commerce giants like Taobao, JD.com, and Pinduoduo have ramped up their efforts to include the Hong Kong market in their free shipping zones. In the past, Hong Kong residents had to use intermediary services to receive their orders, but the newly launched one-stop shopping services are naturally very popular.
4 Jun 2025
Faculty
Will new US curbs on China’s tech tests raise electronic prices for American consumers?
Will new US curbs on China’s tech tests raise electronic prices for American consumers?
Prof. Zhiwu CHEN
Prof. Zhiwu Chen, Chair Professor of Finance at HKU Business School recently shared his perspectives with SCMP on the US ban targeting Chinese testing labs over security risks. Prof. Chen highlighted the practical challenges, "It is hard to determine where each component is tested, when so many things make up a smartphone... I don’t know how you can enforce it." He also pointed out the potential impact on major brands like Apple and Samsung, and ultimately, on American consumers who may face "fewer, more expensive choices." A complex issue with significant implications for global supply chains and tech policy.
3 Jun 2025
Faculty

SCMP
Dr-Maurice-Tse_2019
About Author
Dr. Maurice K.S. TSE

Principal Lecturer

Tags
US economy
Sign up for upcoming news and events
LinkedIn WeChat Instagram Facebook Weibo Twitter YouTube

©2025, HKU Business School. All Rights Reserved. | Privacy Policy | Web Accessibility Statement