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Home Research Thought Leadership In the Media
Analyzing Hong Kong’s Overall Economic Situation with Data – Part Two

Analyzing Hong Kong’s Overall Economic Situation with Data – Part Two

18 Jul 2024
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數據剖析香港金融及旅遊宏觀市場

過去數十年來,香港憑藉優越的地理位置、對國際貿易和投資的開放、穩健的銀行業、健全的監管架構、活躍的股票市場,促進了投資者和外國企業對本地金融服務的需求,推動特區發展成為國際金融中心。

地緣政治挑戰 金融亟需調整

受聯繫匯率制度影響,香港的貨幣供應和利率走向大致跟隨美國聯邦儲備局的貨幣政策步伐【圖1】。

換句話說,為了維持港元匯率穩定,特區政府放棄了貨幣政策的自主權,不能以之應對經濟波動和潛在資產價格的通脹風險。另外,港元兌其他貨幣匯率亦會跟隨美元上落【圖2】,從而影響進出口表現。

二十一世紀初,香港作為中國外來投資的主要門戶,在全球一體化和跟中國內地股票市場融合的背景下,持續吸引投資者,反映在香港恒生指數、股票交易量和市值的增長趨勢【圖3】。

此外,香港作為國家流動資本的門戶,也促進了貸款和墊款的成長。香港能為尋求國際融資的內地企業、擬投資內地的外國企業提供中介服務,有助於本港建立借貸平台和擴展跨境借貸活動。香港健全的法律架構和良好的監管環境亦增加貸款機構的信心,有助於帶動貸款和墊款增長。這些金融服務支持了香港貿易、房地產和製造業等領域的發展。

香港享有國際金融中心的地位、處於中國內地門戶的戰略位置,以及金融管理局和香港交易所推動債務證券市場的效用,吸引了跨國公司和金融機構等債務證券發行人和投資者,為擴張、收購、再融資等各種目的來港尋求資金,促進香港成為東南亞地區重要的債務發行中心【圖4】。

不得不察的是,近年中美的地緣政治,或會影響香港作為國際金融中心的地位。本地金融市場近年經歷長時間整固,尤其反映在股票市場的總市值和集資總額從相對高位顯著下跌。金融業能在多大程度上作出調整、在金融科技和資產管理今後發展如何,將決定香港能否鞏固並維持其領先亞洲的國際金融中心地位。

旅客消費模式 因社媒現轉變

香港東西文化交匯的城市發展、完善的交通基建、作為購物天堂及國際會議展覽中心的美譽,在近數十年來吸引各地休閒及商務旅客絡繹而至,推動旅遊業發展。這些因素都反映在訪港旅客(主要是內地旅客)長期以來的上升趨勢【圖5及圖6】。

然而,2010年代起,社交媒體的興起使旅客更容易獲取香港旅遊資訊和分享經驗,加上鄰近地區的劇烈競爭,逐漸改變訪港旅客的旅遊和消費模式。

自2010年代中期起,訪港旅客的人均消費開始呈現下跌趨勢,其中主因在於人均購物消費的跌勢【圖7及圖8】。

2019年的社會事件和2020年的新冠肺炎疫情重創旅遊業,疫後訪港旅客不論人數或人均消費均未能回復至2010年代高峰水平。

可以預期,從旅遊業的形象和定位、旅遊設施和服務對全球旅客的吸引度、產業政策和管理架構,以至國際政治環境方面,本地旅遊業界勢將面臨重重挑戰,若要發展重拾正軌,端賴政府和市民攜手努力。

 

何志培博士
港大经管学院经济学讲师

(本文同时于二零二四年七月十八日载于《信报》「龙虎山下」专栏)

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