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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
Rebooting Chinese manufacturing is necessary, but yet to offset global economic downturn

Rebooting Chinese manufacturing is necessary, but yet to offset global economic downturn

8 Apr 2020
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中國有序復工 全球有待復甦

 

3月初,筆者在《南華早報》撰文,論及處於經濟危機及新冠病毒疫情第二波爆發的兩難局面之際,中央政府顯然選擇了復工,以避免經濟危機。過了一個月,疫情第二波幸好沒來臨,製造業大部分企業,尤其是出口企業,根據多個報道,復工程度已達九成。從英國《金融時報》的大數據實時分析【註1】可見,多個跟工業生產相關的指標,如發電廠煤炭用量或交通堵塞程度,都意味着工業逐步復產。

 

重啟經濟時機

雖然疫情第二波爆發的可能性仍然存在,但鑑於全球供應鏈一旦斷裂,從短期甚至中長期而言,對內地經濟造成的影響將難以想像,中央政府堅決恢復工業生產,實無可厚非。2月底,新冠病毒擴散開始受控,正為內地經濟重新出發提供一個理想窗口,多個地方政府呼籲各行業有序復工,企業已從3月初逐步恢復營業;3月底,國家主席習近平更親自到浙江視察復工進度。

 

3月初,跟許多國內外專家一樣,筆者樂觀地推測中國內地工廠只要復工,減少對全球供應鏈的破壞,理論上可以避免大幅經濟衰退。但始料不及的是,隨後歐美疫症大爆發,環球經濟已踏入很可能比2008至09年更嚴重的衰退,本地及外資企業壓力突然大增,無論出口或內銷,今年都面臨困境。世界各地部分企業已開始違約,或基於疫情為自然災害,試圖援引合約中的「不可抗力」(Force Majeure)條款,單方面取消供應或訂單,未來數月,相信類似情況會陸續發生。

 

內地經濟單靠有序復工,難以製造V形反彈復甦,現在只望U形復甦,而U形何時見底仍是未知之數。

 

不復工威脅環球經濟

2003年沙士一役,對中國內地及全球經濟衝擊有限而且相對短暫,然而當前新冠肺炎對經濟的影響則有根本性的差別。17年前沙士來勢洶洶,但中國隨2001年加入世界貿易組織後,在經濟上取得爆炸性發展。當年內地經濟結構趨於簡單,以勞動力密集行業為主,出口多屬低增值最終消費品,以加工貿易為主導,與其他國家的連繫相對較弱。

 

時至今日,內地雖已面臨經濟放緩多年,但其經濟結構已比當年複雜得多,與其他國家的經濟關係,也因全球供應鏈及金融鏈的連繫,變得難以分割或替代。根據筆者和世界銀行經濟學家在2016年《美國經濟評論》共同發表的研究【註2】,中國經濟從全球供應鏈的中下游(如勞動密集型加工出口),已升至近各行業的中上游,其中包括多項高增值及研發密集型的活動。現時在全球多國的家用電器、醫療產品、汽車和電子產品供應鏈中,中國內地已進佔上游位置。外國企業要在其他國家另覓供應商替代日趨成熟的內地廠商,短期內並不容易。發達國家要把部分生產線搬回本國,成本則難免大幅提升。好處當然是中國的供應鏈不再輕易重組,弊處則是一旦在內地工業生產受制於疫情而中斷,就會波及全球,包括全球供應鏈中較上游的國家(如德國、日本和南韓),以至較下游的國家(如柬埔寨、泰國和越南)。

 

消費者暫時尚未感受到供應鏈斷裂的影響,因為從工廠出貨送到消費者手裏,一般需時數周。在中國內地設廠的公司早已預計農曆新年期間工廠休產,而增加了庫存。但當存貨沽清,生產又因疫情影響而延遲,自然促使全球價格上漲,令全球經濟衰退機會大增,情況就如1970年代後期,石油價格飆升導致成本推動型全球衰退一樣。中國政府當然不想背負此一責任。

 

不復工影響內地長遠經濟發展

除了對經濟衰退的擔憂外,經過兩年的中美貿易戰,很多廠家、外資企業、外國買家,都因成本及風險提高,已為分散風險作出準備或加以適當調整,逐步減少依賴國內企業。根據中國美國商會在2019年發表的《中國商務環境調查報告》,65%的成員表示,中美貿易緊張局勢正在影響其公司長期戰略。北京當然意識到,永遠失去貿易夥伴可能對國內已放緩的經濟雪上加霜。

 

話雖如此,與內地企業夥伴建立了長期合作關係的外資公司,會發現抽身離開並不容易。筆者初步的研究發現,在過去兩年貿易戰的陰霾下,外資企業要是真的重組供應鏈,往往只會把比較勞動密集型的生產部分,從內地轉移到其他成本較低的國家,如越南、柬埔寨等。其中一個原因是因為中國內地經濟規模龐大,而工業生產着重規模經濟。另一原因是內地經過多年發展,雖然生產成本及工資上升了不少,但其生產力也比周邊國家高出不少。再者,全球供應鏈中的商業夥伴,彼此攜手合作多年,建立了互信,雙方投資也不少,一旦拆夥,難免血本無歸,重新投資與重建商業關係需時,財政成本亦不菲,更莫說要面對將來難以預測的地緣政治風險。

 

但是,國內製造業要是持續因疫情而停頓或放緩,外國客戶就要被迫嘗試與其他國家的供應商合作,到時或會發現他們可媲美內地生產商。北京當然想盡量避免因疫情加上貿易戰而發生的大型供應鏈重組。

 

過去兩個月,疫症相繼在全球爆發,美國、意大利、西班牙更屬重災區。以內地為例,即使推出有效防疫措施,工業生產也要個多月才能恢復九成,其他商業活動(如服務業)的復甦仍有待觀察,至於疫情尚未受控的國家,相信需要更長時間,才能恢復正常經濟運作。與此同時,南半球各國因冬天剛至而面臨疫症爆發,印度、泰國等地比中國內地更着力封城,新興國家也可能因資金流失及全球經濟下滑,而引發金融危機。今年世界經濟衰退,看來已經寫在牆上,各國投資銀行及跨國機構,不斷調低對全球及中國經濟增長的預測,世界銀行在剛發表的《全球經濟展望》【註3】中預測,中國今年經濟增長,將會介乎0.1%到2.3%,為1976年以來所未見的低潮。

 

相信中國內地及全球各國,特別是倚重貿易的國家,均急需政府加大刺激經濟的措施,提升內需,增加科技及基建投資,才能避免嚴重的經濟下滑。前事不忘,正如一個世紀前的西班牙流感,只要當前疫情能於年內受控,有助減低對環球經濟影響,2021年經濟就可望反彈。畢竟希望在明天。

 

註1: Coronavirus economic tracker: latest global fallout,金融時報,2020年4月3日.

註2: Kee, Hiau Looi and Heiwai Tang (2016), “Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China” , American Economic Review, 106(6), June 2016, pp. 1402-1436

註3: World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, April 2020: East Asia and Pacific in the Time of COVID-19
鄧希煒教授
香港大學經濟及工商管理學院經濟學教授

 

(本文同時於二零二零年四月八日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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