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HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column
Market Risks Lurking in the Fusion of Government and Financial Sectors

Market Risks Lurking in the Fusion of Government and Financial Sectors

17 Sep 2025
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政金合體潛藏的市場風險

特朗普家族透過旗下「世界自由金融」(World Liberty Financial)去中心化金融 (DeFi) 協定和管治平台, 發行名為「WLFI」的數字代幣,剛由9月1日起在各大加密貨幣交易所買賣(【圖】)。

公開交易後,特朗普家族的財富帳面上一度躍升50億美元。自從特朗普本年重返白宮以來,他不但通過WLFI項目在金融領域取得豐富收穫,甚至得以成為歷任美國總統中的首富。

從懷疑到擁抱的急轉彎

然而回溯2021年6月的一次訪問中,特朗普卻公開批評加密貨幣是影響美元價值的騙局,主張嚴加監管。3年之後,為了在大選中勝出,竟又一改立場,承諾將美國打造成「世界加密之都」。特朗普上台後,隨即簽署一項行政命令,旨在強化美國在數字金融技術領域的領導地位,並成立總統數字資產市場工作小組,推動美國成為區塊鏈創新的領導者。而特朗普兩名兒子投資的比特幣礦業公司 American Bitcoin,亦於上周正式在納斯達克上市,成為市場檢視特朗普家族對投資加密貨幣熱度的另一例子。

事實上,直至2022年底,特朗普才開始售賣數字藏品 (digital collectibles),主要包括特朗普身穿超級英雄服裝或擺出打高爾夫球姿勢的圖像。公開數據顯示,特朗普家族已涉足非同質化代幣(NFT)、比特幣、發布個人加密貨幣等業務,由此獲得近10億美元賬面收益。

WLFI暴升暴跌有跡可尋

世界自由金融公司自2024年9月成立以來,一直在購買以太幣、波場幣等加密貨幣,但尚未推出其聲稱的去中心化金融服務。本年3月完成發行第二批加密幣後,該公司從中集資總額達5.5億美元,並宣布推出與美元掛鈎的穩定幣USD1,最初將在以太坊和幣安區塊鏈上鑄造。

至於上周發行的WLFI代幣,在特朗普家族成員的支持下,強調將「美國優先」(America First)策略和區塊鏈實用功能結合。上市 48 小時內交易價格飆升逾 60%,但在宣布銷毀 4,700 萬枚代幣後大跌, 一些投資界名人的巨額錢包亦被凍結。WLFI代幣剛上市即崩盤,短時間內跌幅達40%,引起市場廣泛關注。

根據市場消息,WLFI早期投資者成本極低,原本規定只能出售20%的持股。然而,公司被傳聞為協助大戶出貨,突然修改規則允許大量拋售,導致市場瞬間被賣方淹沒。如此朝令夕改,嚴重失信於投資者,暴露了項目管理的核心缺陷。WLFI最初宣傳建立廣泛的政治金融生態系統,不過是只聞樓梯響而已。其發行總量高達1000億枚,市值一度被炒至400億美元,但大部分代幣的解鎖和時間表完全不透明。團隊和早期投資者或隨時大規模拋售,一般投資者則處於資訊劣勢地位,成為被收割的對象。

更令人擔憂的是,WLFI所有收入完全歸公司所有,持幣者無法獲得任何分紅或收益,有違去中心化的原則,純屬市場炒作而非真實價值創造。WLFI形像不佳,在社交平台和加密貨幣討論區上,有投資者開始將之與 FTX 以至 Bitconnect 等量齊觀。儘管其流動性依然充裕, 但市場情緒已驟變, 反映投資者極大的不信任。

家天下的隱憂

WLFI 暴跌的主因涵蓋四方面:一、解鎖機制不健全,雖然根據 WLFI 的方案,9 月 1 日僅約 20% 的早期種子代幣和私募代幣透過 Lockbox 系統解鎖,其餘代幣需經受託人投票才能解鎖,但作為專案方的特朗普家族卻不受此限制,資金運用完全自由。二、WLFI 的估值泡沫嚴重,其完全稀釋估值高達 550 億美元,相當於 LINK、UNI 等四大項目完全稀釋估值的總和,但實際交易支撐幾乎為零,估值主要依賴特朗普家族的支持,缺乏基本面指標。三、代幣分布高度集中,35% 的代幣由團隊和策略投資者持有,歷史經驗顯示與特朗普相關的項目常在大漲後遭內部人士拋售,以致價格下跌。四、美國證券交易委員會(SEC)加強對政治代幣的監管,若 WLFI 被認定為未註冊證券,可能面臨強制退市。

值得注意的是,世界自由金融的聯合創辧人之一,是特朗普政府中東特使Steve Witkoff的兒子,因有潛在利益衝突之嫌而受到質疑。在特朗普就任美國總統前幾天,其妻梅拉尼婭又推出個人迷因幣 (meme coin),在本年1月為與特朗普有關的實體帶來了超過1140萬美元的收益,但其價格隨即暴跌。

因此,專家和業內人士近期紛紛警告,特朗普家族涉足加密貨幣,不但足以引致利益衝突甚至國家安全風險,亦有衍生金權政治之虞。奧巴馬當政時的白宮道德顧問艾森(Norman Eisen)就指出,特朗普家族此舉與其本人的總統職責之間,存在極其嚴重的利益衝突。

觀乎特朗普家族先前推出的Trump幣和NFT計劃,最終都以失敗告終,這次WLFI幣的前景自然也不被看好。WLFI、RTX 和 SOMI 同步崛起,揭示了當今加密貨幣投資者的碎片化思維。 WLFI 借助掌權家族的政治地位壯大聲勢, 而RTX 以企業級邏輯提供切實可行的解決方案,SOMI 則以交易速度和具有遠見著稱, 儘管其實用性仍有待觀察。三種代幣體現了在當前的市場中,投機性、爭議性和審慎觀點並存。

慎防政治化風險

特朗普家族將「美國優先」的政治口號與區塊鏈技術結合,試圖在加密貨幣市場中建立一種具有象徵意義的金融產品。這種策略反映出加密資產不再只是技術創新的產物,而是變為政治人物與名人進行品牌延伸與資本運作的工具。對於香港及亞洲市場而言,這種「政治化金融」的趨勢不容忽視,尤其在區塊鏈技術不斷滲透主流金融體系的背景下,如何平衡技術創新與道德監管,將成為政策制定者與投資者的關注焦點。

世界各地金融市場緊密互通,WLFI 的劇烈波動與管治爭議,為香港及各地投資者敲響警鐘;市場情緒突變從【圖】可見一斑。在加密貨幣市場中,項目的管治結構、代幣解鎖機制與資訊透明度,往往比短期價格更具決定性。香港作為國際金融中心,其中愈來愈多散戶與機構參與加密資產投資,當局應加強社會對項目白皮書、代幣分配與管治機制的分析能力。在高波動性與資訊不對稱的市場中,缺乏對項目內部運作理解的投資者,將難免承受巨大風險。

圖   WLFI 代幣價格走勢

資料來源: CoinGecko

謝國生教授  

港大經管學院金融學教學副教授、新界鄉議局當然執行委員

何敏淙 

香港大學附屬學院講師

(本文同時於二零二五年九月十七日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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