HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
  • 繁
  • 简
Type To Search
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
Type To Search
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
        • About us about us
        • A Premier Business School in Asia with Global Influence
        • Overview
          • Message from the Dean
          • Vision & Mission
          • Milestones
          • Partnerships & Global Network
          • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
          • Rankings & Accreditations
          • Corporate Collaboration
        • Leadership
          • Faculty Management
          • International Advisory Council
        • Our Stories
        • Contact Us
        • Staff Portal
        • Campuses
  • Programmes
        • Programmes programmes
        • Diversified Learning Experience Empowers our Students
        • Undergraduate
        • Masters
          • MAA
          • MAcct
          • MCGRM
          • MEcon
          • MFWM
          • MFin
          • MFFinTech
          • MGM
          • MSAF
          • MSc(BA)
          • MScMktg
          • MWM
        • MBAs & EMBAs
          • MBA
          • IMBA
          • HKU EMBA
        • PhD
        • Executive Education
        • DBA
  • People
        • People people
        • International Faculty Body that Offers Quality Education
        • Faculty
        • Post-Doctoral Fellows
        • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
        • Research Postgraduate Students
        • Administration
  • Research
        • Research research
        • Lead the Frontier of Knowledge Creation
        • Thought Leadership
          • Latest Research Publications
          • HKEJ Column
          • FT Chinese Column
          • In the Media
        • Academic Areas
        • Faculty Members
        • Research Grants
        • Seminars & Conferences
          • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
        • Research Centres & Institutes
        • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
        • HKU Knowledge Exchange
        • HKU Scholars Hub
        • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
        • Media media
        • Inspire the Society and Community with Rigorous Insights
        • School News
        • In the Media
        • Press Release
  • Career
        • Career career
        • Fostering Strategic Partnerships and Talent Development
        • Recruit our Talents
        • Student Career Development
        • Career Opportunities
          • Faculty Recruitments
          • HKU Career Site
HKUBS_Standard_Coloured_Shield_Blue_Text_Logo - 380
  • Global Presence
  • About Us
    • Overview
      • Message from the Dean
      • Vision & Mission
      • Milestones
      • Partnerships & Global Network
      • Beta Gamma Sigma HKU Chapter
      • Rankings & Accreditations
      • Corporate Collaboration
    • Leadership
      • Faculty Management
      • International Advisory Council
    • Our Stories
    • Contact Us
    • Staff Portal
    • Campuses
  • Programmes
    • Undergraduate
    • Masters
      • MAA
      • MAcct
      • MCGRM
      • MEcon
      • MFWM
      • MFin
      • MFFinTech
      • MGM
      • MSAF
      • MSc(BA)
      • MScMktg
      • MWM
    • MBAs & EMBAs
      • MBA
      • IMBA
      • HKU EMBA
    • DBA
    • PhD
    • Executive Education
  • People
    • Faculty
    • Post-Doctoral Fellows
    • Demonstrators/ Teaching Assistants
    • Research Postgraduate Students
    • Administration
  • Research
    • Thought Leadership
      • Latest Research Publications
      • HKEJ Column
      • FT Chinese Column
      • In the Media
    • Academic Areas
    • Faculty Members
    • Research Grants
    • Seminars & Conferences
      • Edward K Y Chen Distinguished Lecture Series
    • Research Centres & Institutes
    • Hong Kong Macroeconomics Forecast
    • HKU Knowledge Exchange
    • HKU Scholars Hub
    • Shenzhen Research Institutes
  • Events
  • Media
    • School News
    • In the Media
    • Press Release
  • Career
    • Recruit our Talents
    • Student Career Development
    • Career Opportunities
      • Faculty Recruitments
      • HKU Career Site

HKEJ Column

Home Research Thought Leadership HKEJ Column

“Confirmation Bias”: an illustration from the political analogy of a poetic advertisement

21 Aug 2019
Share on TwitterShare on FacebookShare on WhatsappShare on LinkedInShare on Email

「確認偏見」——由黃台之瓜說起

李嘉誠先生日前以「一個香港市民」的名義,在多份報章頭版刊登兩款全版廣告。一款廣告為「正如我之前講過:『黃台之瓜,何堪再摘。』」;另一款廣告正中位置印有反暴力標誌,上方是「最好的因可成最壞的果」,右邊寫「愛中國 · 愛香港 · 愛自己」,左邊寫「愛自由 · 愛包容 · 愛法治」,下方是「以愛之義 止息怒憤」。

是次報章廣告為李嘉誠對近期香港局勢首度公開表態,即時引起社會各界及市民的不同解讀,第一款尤甚。如反修例者認為第一款廣告的對象是政府,把李先生的表態當作為他們發聲,請政府克制,別對激進示威者趕盡殺絕。對立一方的解讀卻正好相反,認為第一款廣告的對象是激進示威者,李先生希望激進示威者不要再將抗爭升級,以免政府作出極端回應。

李嘉誠很快透過發言人回應社會的迴響,表示刊登兩款廣告,是因為目前香港形勢複雜,難以用單一語言或溝通方式回應,形容「應以何身得度者,即現何身而為之說法」。至於對政府有何看法,發言人形容,現時年輕人給政府的聲音和訊息震耳欲聾,政府已在絞盡腦汁。在談到對年輕人的看法時,發言人呼籲:「不要讓今天的激情,成為明天的遺憾」。

減偏見縮分歧

本文並非解讀李先生的廣告和回應,只是藉此帶出不同人對同一事件有不同的解讀,其實十分普遍;此現象在行為經濟學上稱為「確認偏見」(confirmation bias)。「確認偏見」的成因之一是模棱兩可的信息,可作不同的解讀,用以支持各自的信念。上述「黃台之瓜」廣告就是個好例子,不但因信息模棱兩可而無助收窄分歧,更因「確認偏見」,令分歧進一步加深。

政府在「反修例」風波中雖然讓步,但堅持只「暫緩」修訂《逃犯條例》草案,而決不按照法律清晰地「撤回」草案,以致回應變得模糊,無助收窄與反對陣營彼此之間的分歧。如果政府依法「撤回」草案,相信有利於收窄雙方分歧。

當然,「確認偏見」不是那麽容易消除,因為它還有兩大成因。第一,人們往往對與自己信念相反的信息不以為然,卻樂於接受與一己信念相同的信息。例如反修例者不在意建制派媒體和社交網絡的資訊,相反建制派的注意力卻集中在這些資訊上。換句話說,建制派接收政府信息易,反修例者接收政府信息難。要處理相關問題,政府一方面須向反修例者加強宣傳、溝通和對話(技術上不難,視乎政府是否願意付出而已);另一方面,政府和建制派須承認自己也有「確認偏見」,從而作出糾正。

「確認偏見」的第二個成因,就是人們往往對接受(不單是接收)與信念相反和相同的信息抱持雙重標準;兩者之間,相反的標準遠高於相同的標準。舉例來說,建制派接受「暫緩」修例和「撤回」草案差不多,因為特首林鄭月娥說它們的效果差不多,他們便相信如此;反修例者的標準遠高於此,甚至要求特首「完全撤回」草案,才算符合他們的標準。

要處理相關問題,特首須檢討她的回應有否足夠說服力。到目前為止,特首還在逃避她是否有權「撤回」草案的問題。到底這是法律問題抑或政治問題?如果是法律問題,律政司司長鄭若驊應該可以給市民一個肯定的答案,讓特首可以依法回應「撤回」草案的訴求。若然是政治問題,特首應趁機解釋清楚,讓公眾明瞭如何正確理解「一國兩制」。

避免雙重標準

反對聲音的另一訴求是成立獨立調查委員會,特首的回應同樣欠缺說服力。國務院港澳辦和中央政府駐港聯絡辦8月7日在深圳舉行香港局勢座談會。消息指,港澳辦主任張曉明在會上表示,在事件平息後則可以考慮成立獨立調查委員會。既然張主任也認為可以考慮成立獨立委員會,特首為何仍是一口拒絕,抹煞成立獨立委員會的可能性?張主任在座談會開場發言時說:「中央高度關注香港局勢,正從戰略等角度研判事件⋯⋯」希望特首也從戰略角度回應訴求,改善回應,提高說服力,以化解現時僵局。

糾正「確認偏見」有助收窄雙方分歧,然而究竟有何妙法?上文提到,政府須加強宣傳、溝通和對話,讓對方取得政府的信息;但接收不等於接受,政府務必加強說服力,信息才會被接納。更重要的是,政府的信息一定要清晰,若模棱兩可,徒添不同解讀,讓雙方把信息各自解讀為支持己方的信念,彼此間的分歧只會愈來愈大。

另一方面,政府和建制派也須自我糾正「確認偏見」,走出自己的安舒區,聆聽非建制派媒體和社交網絡聲音;但光是聆聽絕不足夠,政府還須克服雙重標準,別要把接受非建制派意見的標準,定得遠高於對建制派意見的標準。若信息有模糊之處,政府和建制派應該主動澄清,而不是任由別人隨意解讀信息,自欺欺人。縱然這些建議都是說易行難,但收窄分歧從來不易,政府必須身體力行,只說不做實在意義全無。

歸根究柢,收窄分歧倚仗雙方的付出。反修例者除了要努力糾正政府的「確認偏見」,也得努力通過進行自省而自我糾正:是否有偏聽、偏看?對政府和建制派是否持有雙重標準?是否任意把信息解讀為對己有利?是否嚴人寬己?

套用李嘉誠先生所登一款廣告模式,謹此以八字作結:「嚴以律己,寬以待人」。

程騰歡 香港大學經濟及工商管理學院副教授
(本文同時於二零一九年八月二十一日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

Tenants Purchase Scheme Helps Reduce Wealth Inequality14 Aug 2019
Who is going to be helpless and suffered severely?28 Aug 2019
Trending
Tug-of-War Between Fraud and Security in the Age of AI
Tug-of-War Between Fraud and Security in the Age of AI
Dr. Maurice K.S. TSE
Artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly becoming a core technology for optimizing efficiency and driving innovation, with wide applications in fields such as healthcare, business operations, and public safety. However, like the other side of a coin, it also provides opportunities for criminals. As AI technology becomes increasingly sophisticated, criminal organizations are using it for hacking attacks, fraud, video forgery for extortion, and the spread of misinformation, making it difficult for people to defend against such threats.
25 Jun 2025
Faculty
Four Takeaways from London’s Experiences for Hong Kong’s Economic Transformation
Four Takeaways from London’s Experiences for Hong Kong’s Economic Transformation
Prof. Heiwai TANG
After the Second World War, London underwent a profound transformation from a global trading port to an offshore financial center. In 1964, London ranked among the top three ports in Europe, handling as much as 61.3 million tons of cargo. However, by the 1980s, with the widespread adoption of large ocean-going vessels and container technology, the local enclosed docks were geographically and structurally unable to meet the demands of modern cargo transport. As a result, the volume of goods handled dropped sharply to 25 million tons, causing London’s port to lose its leading position.
18 Jun 2025
Faculty
0HKU_1881_2019
About Author
Prof. Stephen CHING

Associate Professor

Sign up for upcoming news and events
LinkedIn WeChat Instagram Facebook Weibo Twitter YouTube

©2025, HKU Business School. All Rights Reserved. | Privacy Policy | Web Accessibility Statement