Tackling Fiscal Deficit: The Pros and Cons of Government Bonds

特區政府近6個財政年度中,有5個出現赤字,累計超過5千億元【圖】。面對此一難題,財政司司長將於本月底發表新一份《財政預算案》,有何妙策可以應付?

2024–2025年度首8個月的赤字為1,432億元(已包括發行債券收入);羅兵咸永道估算全年赤字為948億元,而財政儲備將下降至6,398億元,相當於約10個月政府開支,屬有記錄以來最低水平,最高峰曾達28個月水平。若公共財政繼續入不敷支,並無措施出台扭轉趨勢,估算未來4年赤字亦將居高不下。政府必須盡快全面檢討支出,同時在管理財政及其對公眾的影響之間小心取得平衡。

圖  香港特區政府的財政狀況

(億港元)

資料來源:香港特區政府庫務署

 

以公債挹注基建

政府近年推出銀色和綠色債券,並積極增幅以應對財赤。去年2月陳茂波發表預算案時,提出2024年度將發債1200億元,其中零售部分為700億元(500億元為銀色債券、200億元為綠色債券及基礎建設債券)。當時訊息非常清晰,500億元銀債與基建債計劃無關。

發售銀債旨在為本港長者提供回報穩定的投資產品,雖沒有二手市場,但投資者可以在債券到期前讓政府提前贖回。值得留意的是,2024年9月根據基礎建設債券框架發行的第九批銀色債券,首度將債券資金用於基建工程。政府認為可更好地管理大型基建所需現金流,令惠及經濟民生的項目早日落成。預計2028–29年度,債務對本地生產總值比率介乎9%至13%。

過去發行的銀色債券均由金融管理局(金管局)負責投資,如去年投資回報有5.5%,稍高於銀債息率,政府不能償還債券的機會極微,但本財政年度開始,卻直接將銀債的資金用於政府公務工程,投資回報變得複雜,風險比以前高。縱使目前政府違約的機會不大,然而隨着發行債券的金額倍數擴大,風險也會大增。無獨有偶,目前銀色債券的發行額度正與財赤增加而同步擴大。例如2020–21年度財政赤字2,325億元,銀債就從此前每年發行30億元躍升至240億元,以致表面上錄得盈餘294億元。

回溯政府在2016年首次發行銀債,目標之一是協助長者抵抗通脹,但近年本港通脹偏低,如2023年的通脹率只是1.7%。除了發行首年,銀債息率一直高於通脹率,尤其是2021年的通脹率僅為0.6%,銀債息率卻達3.5%;認購量又由最初5手大增至去年21手,難免有以公帑補貼長者投資回報之嫌。筆者認為,公帑理應集中支援最需要照顧的弱勢長者。銀債推出已近10年,究竟如何能達到當年推廣長者投資市場的本意,值得深思。

千億債券救近火

綠色債券是政府可持續債券計劃的重要組成部份,為應對氣候變化、轉型至低碳經濟體等理念的綠色項目融資,反映了香港與綠色債券市場的國際標準接軌。本年度預算案列出,綠色債券計劃與基礎建設債券計劃的合共借款上限為5千億元,全部撥入基本工程儲備基金。根據預算案的中期估算,政府2025–26年度可轉虧為盈,盈餘63.3億元,但若扣除發債收支,則至2027–28年度才會錄得盈餘約141億元。

銀債在2020年起發行規模由30億元增加至150億元,翌年更倍增至300億元;同一時間在特區政府帳目中來自債券發行的淨收益,由2019–20年度首次有63億元年收入,隨後兩年倍增至193億元及291億元,可見認購銀債金額全數撥入財政儲備。上年度銀債發行額達550億元新高,並同時發行綠色債券,以致債券淨收入高達716億元。顯而易見,沒有這筆龐大收入,就會錄得1,700億元財赤,而非只是1千億元。政府不應將各類債券所募集的資金視為收入,更不應在同年將債款花掉,公眾才得以了解財赤的嚴峻程度。

新一批銀債集資不再放在外滙基金投資,意味着政府潛在收入減少,財赤亦會比預期多,加上賣地收入減少,財政儲備恐怕更快耗盡,政府有必要及早設法開源節流。金管局稱,未來會繼續按基礎建設債券框架發行銀債,或就合適基建項目發行綠債,視乎屆時的公共項目而定。在財政儲備將要跌穿6千億元的情況下,發行基建債券融資不能單靠儲備作支持,發債成本應與基建項目回報掛勾,但基建投資屬長遠性質,北部都會區、交椅洲人工島發展談不上何時能提供收益,恐怕融資成本將遠高於發行銀債的息率。政府應詳加解說,以釋公眾疑慮。

經濟需另譜新章

結構性赤字其實有好有壞,例如美國列根時代減稅所引發的財政不平衡,在不同程度上有助於經濟結構提升和改革。相反,日本的結構性財赤更關乎經濟政策出現問題,特區政府應引以為鑑,設法推出減低支出、提升收入的政策,否則單靠發債度日,難免有債務危機。政府亦需考慮,持續性發債會否影響金融市場的穩健性及評級。香港一如新加坡和挪威,是世界上極少數擁有積累財政儲備的經濟體,然而透過開源節流來削減財赤,實在談何容易!經濟不景時開徵新稅,必然備受社會反對,甚至因被視為有違簡單稅制的優良傳統,結果得不償失。至於削減公共開支,則會遇到既得利益者的阻力。教育、醫療、社會福利開支,極其量只有望凍結增長。

另一燙手山芋是公務員薪酬。筆者不建議公務員全面減薪,因每每引致私人機構效法,亦會進一步受到打擊消費者和投資者信心,而影響疫後經濟復甦。當然,現時19萬名公務員的龐大架構中,可刪減部分職位以便節流。政府不妨帶頭推動人工智能,提升工作效率,此舉更能釋出正面訊息。發債以外,政府亦可考慮下調股票印花稅的稅率,吸引更多資金流入股市,並制定吸引高端消費遊客的政策,以收開源之效。

財政赤字令特區政府忽略或擱置長遠的策略,無疑是非常危險的傾向。政府的本能反應是削減開支、增加收入。歸根究柢,解決方案還需依賴經濟增長。本港經濟的核心問題,在於地產市道崩潰之後,缺乏新的火車頭和增長動力。這既屬地產泡沫的後遺症,也是外在環境(特別是中國因素)出現重大轉變使然。根據金管局的研究報告,香港的潛在本地生產總值增長率從1980年代初的8%,跌至1998至2000年的3.5% 至4%,反觀南韓、中國台灣及新加坡的增幅卻達4%至6%。

香港經濟因疫情低迷,疫後經濟復甦緩慢,並失去發展方向。國內城市冒起,更迅速動搖香港的自信。特區的生產性投資、效率及人力資源質素,整體難以令人樂觀,加上供求錯配,這座城市的潛在增長率正逐漸下降。這必然影響政府財政收入的穩健性(revenue buoyancy)。由於開支方面出現名義剛性(nominal rigidity),財政赤字便會惡化,單以削減開支、增加收入的傳統方法來平衡財赤,就難以奏效。除非能顯著地提高生產效率,否則財政赤字只會揮之不去,更可能引致惡性循環。如何令經濟發展有所創新,重拾增長動力,才是關鍵所在。

參考資料

Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. “Estimating Hong Kong’s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.” HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001.

 

謝國生博士   港大經管學院金融學首席講師、新界鄉議局當然執行委員
何敏淙  香港大學附屬學院講師

 

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Cinema Seats vs. Home Couches: How Can Hong Kong Cinemas Win the Battle

院線大戰客廳沙發:香港戲院如何扳回一局

從新冠肺炎疫情至今,香港電影院經歷了一波關門大潮。截至2024年4月30日,累計16間戲院結業,其中包括UA連鎖影院在2021年3月全線結業。【註1】這波關門大潮似乎還遠未結束,上月12日MCL Cinema Plus+荷里活廣場戲院宣布結業,而以播放小眾電影知名的高先電影院,也傳出將於租約期滿後結束營業。【註2】

電影院紛紛倒閉並非香港的獨有現象,在作為電影大國的美國,同樣難逃厄運。根據英國一家研究機構統計,目前美國的影院銀幕總數為36,400,比2019年減少12%。世界最大的影院公司AMC娛樂,從2019年開始就陸續關閉了169家影院,雖然疫情之後又增加了60家,但是規模遠比疫情前要小。至於全球第二大連鎖影院巨頭Cineworld,也關閉了接近15%的影院。

影院頭號勁敵

衝着戲院而來的最大對手,無疑是Netflix、Disney+等串流媒體。比起動輒花上百元購買1張門票,同樣是大概100元的串流服務月費,卻可換來豐富的電影、電視節目選擇,對於消費者來說自然更加划算。加上用戶可以舒舒服服地躺在自家沙發上,隨時隨意暫停播放或重播,不難理解為什麼愈來愈多人選擇串流服務來看電影。

無庸置疑,新冠肺炎來襲令影院市道雪上加霜。疫情期間本港戲院共停業267日,市民被迫呆在家中,通過串流媒體觀看電影電視。3年多下來,消費習慣逐漸改變。據《華爾街日報》報導,疫情前有60%的美國消費者認為,看電影應去戲院,疫後降至只有35%;同期選擇在家看電影的美國人,則由40%增至65%。【註3】

作為影院的合作方,電影製作公司亦轉投串流媒體的懷抱。荷里活各大電影製作公司為了既在院線大銀幕上賺足戲票,又想在串流媒體上分一杯羹,通常會在新電影發行的首90天,授予電影院獨家放映權。【註4】消費者如果迫不及待先睹為快,就只能花錢進戲院。等到這個影院獨家檔期過去了,串流媒體才可加以播放。

在串流媒體盛行的今天,獨家檔期對於影院的重要性也就不言而喻。然而疫情令所有影院停運,電影製作公司只好將影片直接在串流媒體上發行。儘管獨家檔期在疫後恢復,但大幅減半至只有45天。盈利窗口大大縮短之際,經營成本又告上升,經營影院生意可謂舉步維艱。

力挽狂瀾之道

影院能否贏過客廳沙發?雖然串流媒體優勢明顯,影院卻可提供無法取代的觀影體驗。如何放大這一強項,是影院能否打贏家中沙發的核心關鍵。比方說,影院的超大銀幕和震撼音效能讓觀影體驗全面升級。在影院總體經營困難的情況下,大銀幕IMAX加杜比音效卻逆勢增長。2023年IMAX的年收益上漲25%,達到2億1400萬美元,其全球(除中國內地)票房收入的市場份額也從2019年的1.7%升至2.1%。【註5】為了強化這一優勢,美國德克薩斯州具百年歷史的連鎖電影院B&B,甚至安裝了一塊寬7層樓、高4層樓的超大銀幕以及一塊270度的環形銀幕,讓觀眾完全沉浸在電影特效之中。

即便是座椅,也有不少影院想勝過家裡的沙發。為了提高觀影體驗,一些影院不惜重金設置可調整溫度和傾斜度的座椅,甚至有服務員端上餐飲,觀眾們一享眼福之餘,還能一飽口福。阿聯酋的連鎖影院Vox更提供和牛豪華大餐,讓看電影變成奢華享受。另有創新者,如在亞洲擁有連鎖影院的韓國公司CGV,不僅在電影放映中為觀眾帶來風雨以及氣味的4D體驗,還在放映前提供音樂、遊戲、餐飲一條龍服務,把觀影塑造成獨特文化體驗。

影院與客廳沙發能否握手言和

電影分類眾多,一個很簡單的標準就是片長。《經濟學人》分析了從荷里活的黃金年代1930年至今10萬多部在全球放映的電影,發現平均片長的增幅為32%,從1930年代平均1小時21分鐘增至2022年的1小時47分鐘。這種趨勢在熱賣的電影中尤其顯著;2022年IMDB網站的評分排名中,十大電影平均片長為2個半小時,足足比1930年代的十大電影長了50%。【註6】

對於觀眾來說,這樣的長片很難集中精力盯着家中的小熒幕一口氣看完,而斷斷續續地看又讓觀影體驗大打折扣。反之,影院的大銀幕配合好音效,若再提供附加服務,就足以吸引消費者步出家門,走進影院,好好享受電影時光。電影製作公司的這種加時策略,在2019年漫威電影《復仇者聯盟:終局之戰》中取得豐厚回報。這部長達3小時的超級英雄電影成為2019年票房冠軍。近期北美電影票房排行榜就有不少這類長片,其中包括長達3小時的2024年奧斯卡最佳影片《奧本海默》。

這意味著電影院和串流媒體可以針對不同影片細分市場:影院專門放映長片或大製作,串流媒體則主攻其他類型的作品;各有側重,和氣收場。

影院應為跳出舒適圈另謀對策

上電影院和在家看戲還有一個很大的不同,就是在影院內和朋友或陌生人坐在一起,這就使得影院有可能成為社交娛樂的場所。影院不妨跳出電影的局限,另闢蹊徑。比如AMC影院正在考慮直播美國欖球聯賽;美國連鎖電影院B&B不僅貼心地為小朋友提供遊樂場地,還為大人提供保齡球、攀岩、匹克球、酒吧以及舉辦私人宴會的場所。其他影院為了鼓勵單身男女入場,甚至在放映前的等待時間組織配對約會活動,讓害怕一個人看電影的年輕人多了一個走進影院的理由。

電影院PK客廳沙發的大戰尚未結束。戲院如果不想舉手投降,只能變陣迎戰,由「觀影場所」打造成「升級體驗的休閒社交場所」,方能有望在這場沒有硝煙的戰役中收復失地。

 

註1:https://www.hk01.com/%E7%A4%BE%E6%9C%83%E6%96%B0%E8%81%9E/1015167/%E6%88%B2%E9%99%A2%E7%B5%90%E6%A5%AD-%E7%96%AB%E6%83%85%E8%87%B3%E4%BB%8A16%E9%96%93%E5%80%92%E9%96%89-ua%E5%85%A8%E7%B7%9A%E8%90%BD%E5%B9%95-%E5%8C%97%E4%B8%8A%E6%BD%AE%E6%AF%94%E9%98%B2%E7%96%AB%E6%8E%AA%E6%96%BD%E6%9B%B4%E5%85%87

註2:https://www.hk01.com/%E9%9B%BB%E5%BD%B1/1084551/%E9%AB%98%E5%85%88%E9%9B%BB%E5%BD%B1%E9%99%A2%E7%AA%81%E5%82%B3%E6%BB%BF%E7%B4%84%E5%BE%8C%E7%B5%90%E6%A5%AD-%E6%9C%89%E8%82%A1%E6%9D%B1%E6%9B%BE%E8%A1%A8%E7%A4%BA-%E7%94%9F%E6%84%8F%E5%94%94%E4%BF%82%E4%B8%8D%E5%A5%BD-%E8%80%8C%E4%BF%82%E5%B7%AE

註3:“How going to the movies is changing, in charts,” The Wall Street Journal, August 6, 2024.

註4:“Movie-theater industry pain intensifies even as pandemic eases,” The Wall Street Journal, April 4, 2023.

註5:“Cinemas may be dying. But IMAX and the high end are thriving,” The Economist, February 28, 2024.

註6:“Why films have become so ridiculously long,” The Economist, October 14, 2023.

范亭亭
港大經管學院市場學首席講師

(本文同時於二零二五年一月二十二日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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特朗普2.0啟幕

 

還有五天,便是特朗普2.0時代的正式開始。8年前,特朗普以半冷門姿態在大選中贏了希拉莉,在缺乏政壇經驗下登上總統寶座。就職典禮後,他還在着意於出席人數的多少。然而,這次他卻有備而來,當選後迅即組成內閣,並高調地提出一些將要推出的政策,如高關稅和擴張領土等。

他同時又接見多位外國領導人及大企業總裁,海湖莊園一時冠蓋雲集,重要人物絡繹不絕,一番未就任已指點江山的氣象,無視現任總統拜登。特朗普的得力助手馬斯克亦不甘後人,公然稱德國總理肖爾茨為蠢才,並公開支持極右的另類選擇黨。他又和一些政客盤算如何在英國下次大選前促使現任首相工黨的施紀賢下台,似乎在幫助特朗普成功競選後,愛上了造王者(kingmaker)的角色。這些出位的言行,預告了未來數年的國際風雲變幻。

特朗普2.0的政策目的仍然是「讓美國再次偉大」(Make America Great Again, MAGA),做法是「美國優先」(America First),政策範圍則包羅甚廣。美國甚為保守的智庫傳統基金會(Heritage Foundation)在2023年出版了「2025計劃」(Project 2025)報告,詳細列出不同範疇的政策執行方向。這份長達900頁的報告,有100多個保守主義機構和一些前特朗普政府的官員參與,雖然特朗普口口聲聲說報告和他無關,但可說代表了保守派主流思想。2016年特朗普競選總統時傳統基金會也有類似報告,並認為特朗普首兩年任期內已跟隨該報告的64%建議。

在經濟領域上,特朗普2.0比較確實的政策範圍包括減稅、減少貿易逆差和減少進入美國的移民。特朗普於2017年成功在國會通過「減稅及職位法案」(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act),但其中多項條款只是臨時的,將於本年底失效。若沒有進一步的立法行動,稅率便會在年底回升至之前的水平。

特朗普一方面希望有關的低稅率可以持續,另方面亦想進一步減稅。上述的「2025計劃」的建議是將現有稅率推倒重來,新的個人所得稅分15%30%兩種,企業所得稅則減至18%。有批評指出,這會增加低收入人士和減少高收入人士的稅務負擔,增加了稅後收入分配的不均。由於共和黨掌控了參眾兩院的多數,成功減稅的機會比較大,會為美國經濟帶來正面的刺激作用,同時也會提高美國企業的競爭力。

 

大削政府開支勢添民怨

 

另一方面,特朗普2.0亦計劃削減聯邦政府的財政開支,提高政府部門的效率。馬斯克曾經稍為隨意地提到,會減少政府開支2萬億元(美元下同),但這難以實現。在去年9月結束的財政年度,美國政府開支為6.75萬億元,2萬億元即佔總開支的30%。再看看開支中必須支付的,包括社會保障、醫療和國債利息,已達4.13億萬億元。餘下的再減2萬億便只有0.62萬億,連該年度的國防開支也不足,更無經費用於教育、基礎建設、退伍軍人福利等多個社會民生項目。當然,若要節省2萬億,肯定會影響政府運作和引發民怨。

特朗普2.0的減稅規模和幅度有多大仍未清楚,但無論如何,都會進一步增加美國國債。即使包括多次提及的對外國產品增加徵收關稅所得的財政收入,亦難以抵消削減所得稅的財赤效果。基於美元的「囂張的特權」(exorbitant privileges),美國政府已習慣了對財赤和國債的持續上升視若無睹,只要去美元化還未認真地打擊到美元在國際金融體系中的核心地位,美國兩黨仍會繼續透支未來。

特朗普及其顧問團隊常認為進口是給外國賺自己的錢,美國的貿易逆差是外國找美國的便宜。要減少貿易逆差,一是徵收關稅,另一是從匯率入手,迫使外國貨幣升值,兩者都會增加美國消費者購買外國產品的美元價格,減少他們的進口。但關稅可以選擇性地加於某些特定商品,因而也是制裁外國或保護本地產業的手段。

特朗普早前曾揚言要對中國產品加徵60%關稅和全球其他國家產品10%甚至20%的關稅,其後又以25%關稅威脅加拿大和墨西哥,要它們限制芬太尼和非法移民進入美國,最近又說以100%關稅對付那些要去美元化的金磚國家。要控制巴拿馬運河和格陵蘭島,也用關稅威脅巴拿馬和丹麥。

對眾多外地徵收大幅關稅,無異於減少外貿,趨向孤立主義,同時外國亦會還以顏色。全球分工已落實到零部件的層面,特朗普的多方面關稅容易誤中副車,亦會如迴力鏢般害人害己。到頭來美國的貿易或會趨向平衡,但那只是貿易收縮下的平衡,貿易帶來的增值皆付諸東流。首當其衝的美國企業或會進行多方面的游說,或以各種理由爭取豁免貿易限制,甚至因為競爭力不足而退出市場。估計美國會在特朗普2.0開始時對一些國家選擇性地加徵關稅,但稅率不會如傳聞般高。

在目前的環境下,美國難以迫使外國貨幣升值。一來面對美國的高關稅,正是需要讓貨幣貶值來抵消關稅,將貨幣升值就如送羊入虎口。二來目前全球眾多經濟體都處於增長疲弱情況,貨幣升值是倒行逆施。這情況和1985年的廣場協議時不同,當時的日本經濟如日中天,每每威脅着美國的領先地位,有條件讓日圓升值。當然,日本央行隨後的誤判和無效的政策,導致經濟呆滯多年,但那是後話。

 

加徵關稅將推高美國物價

 

反過來說,美國是否可以單方面讓美元貶值來促進出口?首先,直接影響美元匯價的是聯儲局的貨幣政策。在現有制度下,聯儲局毋須聽命於白宮。此外,美國的貨幣政策目標是2%的通脹率和最高就業的雙重使命,沒有匯率目標的考慮。換句話說,聯儲局實施貨幣政策,一貫以來都不是要調控美元匯率。若特朗普硬要更改貨幣制度的安排,自然會給美元及美元資產市場添上濃厚的不確定性和不透明性,美元亦會自然貶值,但此舉破壞性很大。

過去幾個月美國的通脹率似乎有很大黏性,雖然通脹率不很高,但遲遲未接近2%的目標,聯儲局減息的步伐也慢下來,似乎短期內改變不大,特別是特朗普2.0若真的加徵關稅,也會推高美國物價。

以特朗普唯我獨尊的性格,大概無論美國經濟如何如他所願,亦不會是他心目中的MAGA,因為世界上有一個足以與美國抗衡的中國,這也是他在2018年開始啟動貿易戰打擊中國的原因。然而美國並沒有贏得貿易戰,甚至在不同準則下都敗下陣來。隨後拜登政府對中國的多方面打壓都不成功。

如今特朗普再度上台,為了增加勝算,便巧取豪奪地增加美國的資源。主要是土地,和隨之而來的物資和戰略位置,於是有了特朗普2.0的啟幕,國際政治一下子回到二戰前的亂局。也許戰後的80年是歷史的偏差,規則制定者最終也是規則破壞者。

一個被法庭定罪的重犯(convicted felon),曾經在4年前挑動政變、兩次被國會彈劾、謊話連篇的政客,可以第二度登上全球最高權力的位置,應該是超乎政治學倫理和想像的異數,但特朗普2.0並非個人現象,在他後面有7700多萬投票給他的美國選民,以及眾多攀附的政客、資本家和科技巨頭。歷史不會終結。

 

陸炎輝博士
港大經管學院榮譽副教授

 

(本文同時於二零二五年一月十五日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

Read More

The Arrival of the Trump 2.0 Era

特朗普2.0啟幕

 

還有五天,便是特朗普2.0時代的正式開始。8年前,特朗普以半冷門姿態在大選中贏了希拉莉,在缺乏政壇經驗下登上總統寶座。就職典禮後,他還在着意於出席人數的多少。然而,這次他卻有備而來,當選後迅即組成內閣,並高調地提出一些將要推出的政策,如高關稅和擴張領土等。

他同時又接見多位外國領導人及大企業總裁,海湖莊園一時冠蓋雲集,重要人物絡繹不絕,一番未就任已指點江山的氣象,無視現任總統拜登。特朗普的得力助手馬斯克亦不甘後人,公然稱德國總理肖爾茨為蠢才,並公開支持極右的另類選擇黨。他又和一些政客盤算如何在英國下次大選前促使現任首相工黨的施紀賢下台,似乎在幫助特朗普成功競選後,愛上了造王者(kingmaker)的角色。這些出位的言行,預告了未來數年的國際風雲變幻。

特朗普2.0的政策目的仍然是「讓美國再次偉大」(Make America Great Again, MAGA),做法是「美國優先」(America First),政策範圍則包羅甚廣。美國甚為保守的智庫傳統基金會(Heritage Foundation)在2023年出版了「2025計劃」(Project 2025)報告,詳細列出不同範疇的政策執行方向。這份長達900頁的報告,有100多個保守主義機構和一些前特朗普政府的官員參與,雖然特朗普口口聲聲說報告和他無關,但可說代表了保守派主流思想。2016年特朗普競選總統時傳統基金會也有類似報告,並認為特朗普首兩年任期內已跟隨該報告的64%建議。

在經濟領域上,特朗普2.0比較確實的政策範圍包括減稅、減少貿易逆差和減少進入美國的移民。特朗普於2017年成功在國會通過「減稅及職位法案」(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act),但其中多項條款只是臨時的,將於本年底失效。若沒有進一步的立法行動,稅率便會在年底回升至之前的水平。

特朗普一方面希望有關的低稅率可以持續,另方面亦想進一步減稅。上述的「2025計劃」的建議是將現有稅率推倒重來,新的個人所得稅分15%30%兩種,企業所得稅則減至18%。有批評指出,這會增加低收入人士和減少高收入人士的稅務負擔,增加了稅後收入分配的不均。由於共和黨掌控了參眾兩院的多數,成功減稅的機會比較大,會為美國經濟帶來正面的刺激作用,同時也會提高美國企業的競爭力。

 

大削政府開支勢添民怨

 

另一方面,特朗普2.0亦計劃削減聯邦政府的財政開支,提高政府部門的效率。馬斯克曾經稍為隨意地提到,會減少政府開支2萬億元(美元下同),但這難以實現。在去年9月結束的財政年度,美國政府開支為6.75萬億元,2萬億元即佔總開支的30%。再看看開支中必須支付的,包括社會保障、醫療和國債利息,已達4.13億萬億元。餘下的再減2萬億便只有0.62萬億,連該年度的國防開支也不足,更無經費用於教育、基礎建設、退伍軍人福利等多個社會民生項目。當然,若要節省2萬億,肯定會影響政府運作和引發民怨。

特朗普2.0的減稅規模和幅度有多大仍未清楚,但無論如何,都會進一步增加美國國債。即使包括多次提及的對外國產品增加徵收關稅所得的財政收入,亦難以抵消削減所得稅的財赤效果。基於美元的「囂張的特權」(exorbitant privileges),美國政府已習慣了對財赤和國債的持續上升視若無睹,只要去美元化還未認真地打擊到美元在國際金融體系中的核心地位,美國兩黨仍會繼續透支未來。

特朗普及其顧問團隊常認為進口是給外國賺自己的錢,美國的貿易逆差是外國找美國的便宜。要減少貿易逆差,一是徵收關稅,另一是從匯率入手,迫使外國貨幣升值,兩者都會增加美國消費者購買外國產品的美元價格,減少他們的進口。但關稅可以選擇性地加於某些特定商品,因而也是制裁外國或保護本地產業的手段。

特朗普早前曾揚言要對中國產品加徵60%關稅和全球其他國家產品10%甚至20%的關稅,其後又以25%關稅威脅加拿大和墨西哥,要它們限制芬太尼和非法移民進入美國,最近又說以100%關稅對付那些要去美元化的金磚國家。要控制巴拿馬運河和格陵蘭島,也用關稅威脅巴拿馬和丹麥。

對眾多外地徵收大幅關稅,無異於減少外貿,趨向孤立主義,同時外國亦會還以顏色。全球分工已落實到零部件的層面,特朗普的多方面關稅容易誤中副車,亦會如迴力鏢般害人害己。到頭來美國的貿易或會趨向平衡,但那只是貿易收縮下的平衡,貿易帶來的增值皆付諸東流。首當其衝的美國企業或會進行多方面的游說,或以各種理由爭取豁免貿易限制,甚至因為競爭力不足而退出市場。估計美國會在特朗普2.0開始時對一些國家選擇性地加徵關稅,但稅率不會如傳聞般高。

在目前的環境下,美國難以迫使外國貨幣升值。一來面對美國的高關稅,正是需要讓貨幣貶值來抵消關稅,將貨幣升值就如送羊入虎口。二來目前全球眾多經濟體都處於增長疲弱情況,貨幣升值是倒行逆施。這情況和1985年的廣場協議時不同,當時的日本經濟如日中天,每每威脅着美國的領先地位,有條件讓日圓升值。當然,日本央行隨後的誤判和無效的政策,導致經濟呆滯多年,但那是後話。

 

加徵關稅將推高美國物價

 

反過來說,美國是否可以單方面讓美元貶值來促進出口?首先,直接影響美元匯價的是聯儲局的貨幣政策。在現有制度下,聯儲局毋須聽命於白宮。此外,美國的貨幣政策目標是2%的通脹率和最高就業的雙重使命,沒有匯率目標的考慮。換句話說,聯儲局實施貨幣政策,一貫以來都不是要調控美元匯率。若特朗普硬要更改貨幣制度的安排,自然會給美元及美元資產市場添上濃厚的不確定性和不透明性,美元亦會自然貶值,但此舉破壞性很大。

過去幾個月美國的通脹率似乎有很大黏性,雖然通脹率不很高,但遲遲未接近2%的目標,聯儲局減息的步伐也慢下來,似乎短期內改變不大,特別是特朗普2.0若真的加徵關稅,也會推高美國物價。

以特朗普唯我獨尊的性格,大概無論美國經濟如何如他所願,亦不會是他心目中的MAGA,因為世界上有一個足以與美國抗衡的中國,這也是他在2018年開始啟動貿易戰打擊中國的原因。然而美國並沒有贏得貿易戰,甚至在不同準則下都敗下陣來。隨後拜登政府對中國的多方面打壓都不成功。

如今特朗普再度上台,為了增加勝算,便巧取豪奪地增加美國的資源。主要是土地,和隨之而來的物資和戰略位置,於是有了特朗普2.0的啟幕,國際政治一下子回到二戰前的亂局。也許戰後的80年是歷史的偏差,規則制定者最終也是規則破壞者。

一個被法庭定罪的重犯(convicted felon),曾經在4年前挑動政變、兩次被國會彈劾、謊話連篇的政客,可以第二度登上全球最高權力的位置,應該是超乎政治學倫理和想像的異數,但特朗普2.0並非個人現象,在他後面有7700多萬投票給他的美國選民,以及眾多攀附的政客、資本家和科技巨頭。歷史不會終結。

 

陸炎輝博士
港大經管學院榮譽副教授

 

(本文同時於二零二五年一月十五日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

Read More

Behavioural Economics in Action: Insights from Deadly Industrial Accidents

行爲經濟學之效:從致命工業意外說起

致命工業意外在香港時有發生,2024年上半年共11宗,較前年同期有所增加。勞工處公布,這些意外中有5宗關乎建造業,2宗與製造業有關,餘下4宗則涉及運輸、倉庫、郵政及速遞服務。建造業在職業安全健康方面一向存在較多問題,該5宗相關致命意外關乎有害物質、有人受困、被墮下的物件擊中等。

有立法會議員關注建造業界的安全意識薄弱,爲趕工而導致意外。勞工處指出,業界貪快、貪方便、「要錢唔要命」的弊病頗爲常見;如果做足安全措施,大部分意外本可避免。

經濟學假設人都是理性的,每個人的行爲應對自己最有利。要防止一件事情發生,就應該加大其成本,讓决策者加以避免。工業意外牽涉到雇員和雇主雙方;就雇員而言,如果安全措施沒做足,因工受傷甚至喪命,難道成本還不够大、還不應加倍小心嗎?

至于雇主方面,除了承擔賠償責任,還要被迫停工、接受監控、暫禁投標等。立法會2023年通過修訂《職業安全及職業健康法例(雜項修訂)條例草案》,最高罰款額由50萬元大增至1000萬元。加大成本難道還不足以讓公司警覺幷作出改善嗎?實行更嚴厲的法規、加强教育、監督雇員,對雇主而言,减少致命意外應該是收益大于成本,爲什麽情况未見明顯改善?

疏忽在所難免

近年興起的行爲經濟學認爲,人在决策、行動時,常常不够理性,幷沒有做出對自己最有利的選擇。認知科學、心理學爲這一說法提供了很多證據。美國心理學家Christopher Chabris和Daniel Simons曾經進行一項廣爲人知的實驗,其中安排6名學生互相傳遞籃球,然後將相關視頻播放給觀察者,要求他們點算其中3名穿白色上衣的學生總共傳球多少次。球來球往之際,有個身穿大猩猩服裝的人走到球員中間,捶胸頓足一番後便離開。這件匪夷所思的事情,竟有一半觀察者完全沒有注意到。短短數分鐘傳球過程中,舞臺背後的布景顔色瞬間改變,更是幾乎沒有觀察者留意得到。這一實驗後來被稱爲「有史以來最著名的心理學演示之一」,兩位研究者還因此獲頒搞笑諾貝爾獎。

有人說這是人爲製造的場景,你讓人去數傳球的次數,他當然不會注意有沒有大猩猩走過。問題是,我們在日常生活或决策過程中,雖然幷無受命要專注什麽,却自然而然只會專注某些事而忽略另外一些事。上述兩位學者亦曾在街頭進行另一實驗,其中參加者假裝在陌生的城市迷了路,向路過的人問路。在對話中安排了另外兩人抬著門板,强行從問路者和回答者中間穿插而過,而問路者與其中一個抬門板者巧妙互換。等門板過去,回答者繼續回答。雖然「調包」兩人的衣著、相貌差別很大,有一半觀察者却完全察覺不到問路者已經換了人。

如何避免意外

兩位學者的一系列研究都揭示,專注于某一件事的人,很容易忽略其他事情。2010年,他們將相關主題寫成《看不見的大猩猩》(The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us)一書,大獲好評,影響廣泛。書中大量例子表明,我們以爲可以全面、準確地觀察到周圍所發生的事情,但其實只看到這個世界的極小部分,而錯過了很多。我們的注意力、感知、記憶、推理,都有重大缺陷和錯失,常常導致代價高昂甚至危及生命的錯誤。

每個人都會犯類似的錯誤。香港每年都有多宗高層住客在晾衫時,意外跌出窗外而喪命的慘劇。在工業意外中死亡的雇員,也很可能基于同一原因:不是不懂後果嚴重,而是大大低估了發生事故的可能性。

要改善此情况,當然不能單靠加大懲罰力度,而要從教育入手。勞工處稱,有些個案每每發生在缺乏安全意識的少數族裔身上,因此要特別針對這個群組推展有關宣傳。

雇主方面,則需要考慮到底是公司對問題認知不足,還是只因尚未找到合適、有效的方法。如果是前者,當然應該進一步加重處罰,有議員就建議設立舉報機制。若是後者,則政府和行業協會應該加强教育、督促公司切實執行有關法規,委派專人監督,組織有效的經驗交流。

此外,不妨借助高科技,例如勞工處正在研究利用無人機協助搜證和執法。除了執法和懲罰,高科技還有更正面的作用。例如智能相機鏡頭現已用來及時發出警報,以免司機因打瞌睡而出意外,或長者上洗手間時摔倒。應用到工業場景,可研究能否在搭棚工人的頭盔裝上智能鏡頭,以監察工友在工作時是否已扣上安全繩。至于在固定場所(如工廠),安裝智能相機確保工業安全,相信較易實行。

理性還是非理性

注意力一時疏忽,看似是人類的認知缺失,但換個角度看,倒可以視爲人類認知的巨大成就。幾百萬年前,在非洲大草原上的人類祖先,需要在瞥見移動物體的瞬間,斷定是否獅子、豹子之類的吃人猛獸,是否需要拔腿就跑,而不是全面、準確、客觀地認識世界;在極短的時間內,根據一鱗半爪的訊息,就要迅速决定如何行動。換句話說,認知是解讀而非接收,追求的是效率而非全面、客觀。爲了作出决定,只需抓取一點點關鍵資料,而忽略其他。

人到底是理性還是非理性,所做决策是否對自己最有利?就證據而言,幷不是非黑即白,既有仔細思考、權衡利弊的例子,也有鹵莽大意而丟失性命的個案。

就學術研究而言,理性抑或非理性都只是假設。采取什麽樣的假設,主要不是看假設是否絕對符合實際,而是看它能否最有效地幫助我們分析和理解問題。

至于公共政策,則不能直接假設人是理性的。行爲經濟學對于非理性行爲的關注,可以爲公共政策帶來新的思路。以器官移植爲例,世界各國都面對捐贈器官供應短缺問題。雖然德國與奧地利在語言、宗教、歷史、經濟發展、教育水平各方面都很近似,但德國的器官捐贈登記率只有15%,奧地利却高達90%以上。專家發現,造成這一重大差別的原因,在于德國的系統要求捐贈者填表,聲明同意捐贈,亦即自願捐贈(opt-in);沒采取任何行動的人,等于不願意捐贈。奧地利的系統則倒轉過來,沒采取任何行動的人視爲「預設默許」(opt-out)捐贈,而不願意捐贈器官者,則需要填表聲明。

科學家的研究表明,在德國、美國這些推行自願捐贈機制的國家,國民認爲器官捐贈道德高尚但成本高昂,好比要决定把遺産的5%甚至50%捐給慈善機構,或相當于絕食抗議這樣代價高昂的行爲。而在奧地利這種實施預設默許安排的國家,國民認爲器官捐贈是件小事,無關道德,有點像讓某人在排隊時插隊,又或缺席孩子的畢業典禮和棒球比賽。

在香港,由此産生的政策建議也就清晰明確:如果希望提升器官捐贈的比率,一個簡單有效的辦法,就是將現行自願捐贈的機制,改爲預設默許捐贈。

周文教授
港大經管學院管理及商業策略副教授

(本文同時於二零二五年一月八日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

Read More

Behavioural Economics in Action: Insights from Deadly Industrial Accidents

行爲經濟學之效:從致命工業意外說起

致命工業意外在香港時有發生,2024年上半年共11宗,較前年同期有所增加。勞工處公布,這些意外中有5宗關乎建造業,2宗與製造業有關,餘下4宗則涉及運輸、倉庫、郵政及速遞服務。建造業在職業安全健康方面一向存在較多問題,該5宗相關致命意外關乎有害物質、有人受困、被墮下的物件擊中等。

有立法會議員關注建造業界的安全意識薄弱,爲趕工而導致意外。勞工處指出,業界貪快、貪方便、「要錢唔要命」的弊病頗爲常見;如果做足安全措施,大部分意外本可避免。

經濟學假設人都是理性的,每個人的行爲應對自己最有利。要防止一件事情發生,就應該加大其成本,讓决策者加以避免。工業意外牽涉到雇員和雇主雙方;就雇員而言,如果安全措施沒做足,因工受傷甚至喪命,難道成本還不够大、還不應加倍小心嗎?

至于雇主方面,除了承擔賠償責任,還要被迫停工、接受監控、暫禁投標等。立法會2023年通過修訂《職業安全及職業健康法例(雜項修訂)條例草案》,最高罰款額由50萬元大增至1000萬元。加大成本難道還不足以讓公司警覺幷作出改善嗎?實行更嚴厲的法規、加强教育、監督雇員,對雇主而言,减少致命意外應該是收益大于成本,爲什麽情况未見明顯改善?

疏忽在所難免

近年興起的行爲經濟學認爲,人在决策、行動時,常常不够理性,幷沒有做出對自己最有利的選擇。認知科學、心理學爲這一說法提供了很多證據。美國心理學家Christopher Chabris和Daniel Simons曾經進行一項廣爲人知的實驗,其中安排6名學生互相傳遞籃球,然後將相關視頻播放給觀察者,要求他們點算其中3名穿白色上衣的學生總共傳球多少次。球來球往之際,有個身穿大猩猩服裝的人走到球員中間,捶胸頓足一番後便離開。這件匪夷所思的事情,竟有一半觀察者完全沒有注意到。短短數分鐘傳球過程中,舞臺背後的布景顔色瞬間改變,更是幾乎沒有觀察者留意得到。這一實驗後來被稱爲「有史以來最著名的心理學演示之一」,兩位研究者還因此獲頒搞笑諾貝爾獎。

有人說這是人爲製造的場景,你讓人去數傳球的次數,他當然不會注意有沒有大猩猩走過。問題是,我們在日常生活或决策過程中,雖然幷無受命要專注什麽,却自然而然只會專注某些事而忽略另外一些事。上述兩位學者亦曾在街頭進行另一實驗,其中參加者假裝在陌生的城市迷了路,向路過的人問路。在對話中安排了另外兩人抬著門板,强行從問路者和回答者中間穿插而過,而問路者與其中一個抬門板者巧妙互換。等門板過去,回答者繼續回答。雖然「調包」兩人的衣著、相貌差別很大,有一半觀察者却完全察覺不到問路者已經換了人。

如何避免意外

兩位學者的一系列研究都揭示,專注于某一件事的人,很容易忽略其他事情。2010年,他們將相關主題寫成《看不見的大猩猩》(The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us)一書,大獲好評,影響廣泛。書中大量例子表明,我們以爲可以全面、準確地觀察到周圍所發生的事情,但其實只看到這個世界的極小部分,而錯過了很多。我們的注意力、感知、記憶、推理,都有重大缺陷和錯失,常常導致代價高昂甚至危及生命的錯誤。

每個人都會犯類似的錯誤。香港每年都有多宗高層住客在晾衫時,意外跌出窗外而喪命的慘劇。在工業意外中死亡的雇員,也很可能基于同一原因:不是不懂後果嚴重,而是大大低估了發生事故的可能性。

要改善此情况,當然不能單靠加大懲罰力度,而要從教育入手。勞工處稱,有些個案每每發生在缺乏安全意識的少數族裔身上,因此要特別針對這個群組推展有關宣傳。

雇主方面,則需要考慮到底是公司對問題認知不足,還是只因尚未找到合適、有效的方法。如果是前者,當然應該進一步加重處罰,有議員就建議設立舉報機制。若是後者,則政府和行業協會應該加强教育、督促公司切實執行有關法規,委派專人監督,組織有效的經驗交流。

此外,不妨借助高科技,例如勞工處正在研究利用無人機協助搜證和執法。除了執法和懲罰,高科技還有更正面的作用。例如智能相機鏡頭現已用來及時發出警報,以免司機因打瞌睡而出意外,或長者上洗手間時摔倒。應用到工業場景,可研究能否在搭棚工人的頭盔裝上智能鏡頭,以監察工友在工作時是否已扣上安全繩。至于在固定場所(如工廠),安裝智能相機確保工業安全,相信較易實行。

理性還是非理性

注意力一時疏忽,看似是人類的認知缺失,但換個角度看,倒可以視爲人類認知的巨大成就。幾百萬年前,在非洲大草原上的人類祖先,需要在瞥見移動物體的瞬間,斷定是否獅子、豹子之類的吃人猛獸,是否需要拔腿就跑,而不是全面、準確、客觀地認識世界;在極短的時間內,根據一鱗半爪的訊息,就要迅速决定如何行動。換句話說,認知是解讀而非接收,追求的是效率而非全面、客觀。爲了作出决定,只需抓取一點點關鍵資料,而忽略其他。

人到底是理性還是非理性,所做决策是否對自己最有利?就證據而言,幷不是非黑即白,既有仔細思考、權衡利弊的例子,也有鹵莽大意而丟失性命的個案。

就學術研究而言,理性抑或非理性都只是假設。采取什麽樣的假設,主要不是看假設是否絕對符合實際,而是看它能否最有效地幫助我們分析和理解問題。

至于公共政策,則不能直接假設人是理性的。行爲經濟學對于非理性行爲的關注,可以爲公共政策帶來新的思路。以器官移植爲例,世界各國都面對捐贈器官供應短缺問題。雖然德國與奧地利在語言、宗教、歷史、經濟發展、教育水平各方面都很近似,但德國的器官捐贈登記率只有15%,奧地利却高達90%以上。專家發現,造成這一重大差別的原因,在于德國的系統要求捐贈者填表,聲明同意捐贈,亦即自願捐贈(opt-in);沒采取任何行動的人,等于不願意捐贈。奧地利的系統則倒轉過來,沒采取任何行動的人視爲「預設默許」(opt-out)捐贈,而不願意捐贈器官者,則需要填表聲明。

科學家的研究表明,在德國、美國這些推行自願捐贈機制的國家,國民認爲器官捐贈道德高尚但成本高昂,好比要决定把遺産的5%甚至50%捐給慈善機構,或相當于絕食抗議這樣代價高昂的行爲。而在奧地利這種實施預設默許安排的國家,國民認爲器官捐贈是件小事,無關道德,有點像讓某人在排隊時插隊,又或缺席孩子的畢業典禮和棒球比賽。

在香港,由此産生的政策建議也就清晰明確:如果希望提升器官捐贈的比率,一個簡單有效的辦法,就是將現行自願捐贈的機制,改爲預設默許捐贈。

周文教授
港大經管學院管理及商業策略副教授

(本文同時於二零二五年一月八日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

Read More

Corporate Digital Responsibility in an Aging Society

數智時代的企業適老化實踐

數字化生活已經成為現代社會不可或缺的一部分,然而對於中國2.97億60歲以上的長者來說【註1】,新技術能否讓他們受益卻仍然存疑。儘管各界都在努力推動「智慧養老」,但現實是許多長者在跨越數字鴻溝時,遇到不少挑戰。

隨着全球老齡化趨勢加劇,如何確保龐大的銀髮族享受科技時代的便利,成為了亟待解決的社會問題。

世代數字鴻溝有待縮窄

長者使用數字技術常常面臨諸多障礙。一方面,很多數字產品設計缺乏對長者需求的關注,操作複雜、介面不友好,使得他們即使有心嘗試,也往往因為使用體驗不佳而望而卻步。另一方面,網路詐騙日益猖獗,一些不法分子專向防範意識較弱的銀髮族下手,導致他們在數字生活中遭受財物損失,甚至心理創傷。

資訊超載、隱私洩露等問題也讓不少長者對新技術產生恐懼感,更進一步限制其融入數字生活的步伐。為了使每位長者都能安全、自信地參與數字社會,許多企業都開始探索如何通過數字化技術,構建一個更加包容、人性化的環境。

包容長者如何惠及企業

從環境、社會及管治(ESG)的角度來看,企業在助老領域的投入不僅能帶來顯著的社會效益,還為企業創造多方面的價值。為此,筆者調研了頂尖數字化企業的助老實踐,總結出以下4種效果。

一、提升品牌形象和社會認同。通過積極參與助老項目,企業展示其對社會責任的承諾,增強公眾對其品牌的好感和信任。二、建立社區關係。深入社區提供服務的企業,能夠更好地理解當地需求,建立深厚的社區聯繫。三、增強員工參與感和忠誠度。透過助老項目,員工得以參與公益活動,從而增強其歸屬感和忠誠度。四、推動內部創新和人才發展。在開發適合長者的技術產品和服務過程中,企業能夠激發內部的創新思維和技術進步。

案例1AI向善語料庫

騰訊於2024年8月啟動了一項面向全社會的共創行動——AI(人工智能)向善語料庫【註2】,旨在為那些在商業環節中失聲的群體和話題,構建一個更加人性化的AI語料庫。通過前期調研,騰訊研究院認識到,由於社會普遍認為長者在數字方面的消費力較低,因此相應需求長期不受重視。目前大部分AI產品亦並非專為長者而設,未能針對其實際需要。要使長者能夠真正受益於AI的發展,大模型需要能夠理解他們的特殊需要,提供資訊實用、滿載關懷的回答。

為此,該項目首先通過聯繫一眾專業人士,包括社工、志願者、社區工作者、心理輔導員、醫生等,加上熱心的高等院校師生,共同收集並整理了數千條長者日常生活中的真實問題及相關解答。這些問題涵蓋了情緒管理、網路購物、心理危機處理,乃至臨終關懷等多個方面,力求全面覆蓋長者的生活需求。

為了確保語料的質量,騰訊邀請不同專家確定了「好語料」的5個標準:一、精確的需求識別;二、充分的同理心;三、切實可行且效果可見的操作建議;四、簡短口語化的表達方式;五、穩定的回答風格。團隊發現,AI回答的同理心尤其關鍵,不僅需要應對長者的負面情緒,提供充分的理解和支持,也應有助於激發和強化他們的積極情緒與自我價值感。騰訊研究院計劃逐步開放AI向善語料庫,以推動社會各界在這些語料的基礎上,創建出更有人情味的產品。

騰訊研究院發布的研究報告。

 

案例2:藍馬甲行動

為了便於長者更安全地享受數字生活,並增強他們的反詐防騙意識,螞蟻集團及其公益基金會於2020年9月發起了「藍馬甲行動」【註3】。通過傳統方式和數字技術,這一項目旨在協助長者融入數字時代,避免讓長者成為網路犯罪的目標。

線下活動方面,藍馬甲在社區中心舉辦公益講座,講解數字設備使用方法和防騙知識;在社區廣場設立諮詢台,提供現場指導和答疑;組織志願者進行家訪,給予一對一的幫助和指導。至於線上活動,「藍馬甲行動」與20多家夥伴機構攜手合作,生產多元的專業助老科普內容。例如,徐州幸福105電台每天早晚高峰時段都會播放《幸福藍馬甲公益電台》小單元,包含反詐小劇場和手機使用指南等內容。

現時「藍馬甲行動」已經具備4個系統化的支援平台:助老內容創新平台、助老生態支持平台、助老價值宣導平台和助老議題研究平台。基於前期活動的經驗,螞蟻公益基金會在2022年發布《適老化設計與服務參考指南》,2023年發布助老防騙書《一件藍馬甲——關注數字時代的銀髮群體》。「藍馬甲行動」為長者提供了直接的幫助和支持,也促進了社會對銀髮族議題的關注。

藍馬甲志願者在社區駐點協助長者使用手機。

圖片來源:長沙縣知仁社會工作發展中心

 

政策建議

綜上所述,助老不僅是企業履行社會責任的重要途徑,也是提升品牌形象、促進社會和諧、加強社區關係,以及推動內部管治優化的有效方式。從ESG的角度看,這些活動為企業帶來可持續的競爭優勢和發展機遇,創造雙贏局面。

筆者呼籲更多企業充分發揮自身的技術、資源和服務優勢,積極參與並推動助老事業。通過深入了解長者用戶的需求和心理特徵,設計既易用又富有情感交流的產品;通過教育普及和社會服務,提高他們的數字素養和防騙意識,從而構建一個更加包容、溫暖的數字社會,讓每一位長者都能安全、自信地享受科技帶來的便利。

 

註1:https://www.mca.gov.cn/n152/n166/c1662004999980001780/content.html

註2:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ggdoPoCtTmimzqu7IW8P9Q

註3:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/oqvkME_w1nUBmb7f89ir1w

 

張閏嘉 
北京大學光華管理學院博士生

顏示硼 
港大經管學院管理及商業策略助理教授

 

(本文同時於二零二五年一月一日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄)

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How Can Corporates Implement ESG Initiatives: A win-win for Society and Economy

Today, in the face of a complex set of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) indicators and their increasingly diverse practices, ESG is no longer a marginal issue in the corporate world. How to enhance ESG competitiveness through precise policy implementation and high-efficiency management has become a burning question for enterprises. With relatively limited resources at their disposal, what ESG strategies should companies prioritize?

Optimizing cost-effectiveness with ESG ratings in mind

When mapping ESG strategies in the past, companies tended to adopt the indicators and weightings of ESG rating agencies as the basis in order to achieve higher ratings. Such an approach is rational as it aligns with the rating standards investors rely upon, thus enabling enterprises to gain the upper hand in compliance, financing, etc.

However, the burgeoning ESG rating agencies and their diversified rating standards in recent years have brought new challenges to businesses. Incomplete statistics show that there are now around 600 rating bodies worldwide, each selecting different indicators and weightings. Existing research indicates that the correlation among ratings from different agencies is weak (see Table), particularly in terms of Social and Governance themes.

Table   Correlation coefficients among ESG ratings of different agencies

Note: This table compares the correlation coefficients of ESG ratings of several mainstream agencies. SA, SP, MO, RE, KL, and MS represent Sustainalytics, S&P Global, Moody’s ESG, Refinitiv, KLD, and MSCI respectively. For example, the first column in the Table indicates that the ESG correlation coefficient between KLD and Sustainalytics is 0.53; the correlation coefficient for the E theme is 0.59, the correlation coefficient for the S theme is 0.31; and the correlation coefficient for the G theme is 0.02. These research results are derived from Berg et al. (2022).

Source: Florian Berg, Julian F Kölbel, Roberto Rigobon. “Aggregate Confusion: The Divergence of ESG Ratings.” Review of Finance, Vol 26, Issue 6 (2022): 1315–1344.

 

The uncertainty of such a rating approach produces several problems. First, even businesses that have invested heavily in ESG can still receive low ratings from some rating agencies. Second, companies that use ESG as a means of greenwashing or window dressing can instead get high ratings from some agencies. Coupled with the fact that many agencies keep churning out all sorts of league tables and awards for profit, the credibility of ESG ratings is going south. The resulting uncertainty over decisions based on ESG ratings poses formidable challenges for a wide range of decision-makers, including enterprises and investors.

To address this problem, we believe that, on the one hand, it is necessary to regulate the ESG-rating market to promote greater transparency of rating methodologies. On the other hand, enterprises should also further assess the actual costs and benefits of each ESG action and initiative so as to facilitate more rational ESG practices.

Specifically, enterprises should identify ESG actions conducive to not only social benefits but also effective cost control. By accurately identifying and prioritizing the implementation of these ESG measures, companies can ensure better value for money for each and every input. Hence, not only can a good market image and investor confidence be secured, but both social and economic benefits can also be expanded.

Ele.me sets an example with its fine-tuned interface

For implementation, enterprises are encouraged to identify low-cost ESG measures that yield high social benefits through experimentation. At the same time, companies can seek collaboration with academia to conduct precise assessments of the costs and social benefits of specific ESG action plans. We will outline a case of collaboration between Alibaba and academia to illustrate how businesses can derive greater social benefits at lower costs.

Ele.me, Alibaba Group’s online delivery services platform, is the second largest food delivery company in China, with over 700 million users in 2022. During a collaborative project with the platform, we studied how “green nudges” impacted the use of disposable tableware. Specifically, Ele.me has started a “green nudge” experiment in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin. For customers in these three cities, the default option on the ordering interface is set to “no need for tableware” and those who choose this default option are awarded “Ant Forest ‘s Green Energy” points. This is a non-cash customer incentive. Once a customer has collected enough points, Alibaba will, in the name of the customer, plant trees in a desert area or launch other environmental protection actions.

Such a change may involve minimal costs for Ele.me but what social benefits can it bring? Our analysis of users’ orders in 10 major Mainland cities between 2019 and 2020 illustrates that cities where “green nudge” measures have been introduced have seen a 648% surge in no-cutlery orders (see Figure). Nationwide implementation of such measures is expected to save over 21.75 billion sets of single-use cutlery, thus reducing 3.26 million tons of plastic waste and saving 5.44 million trees from being cut down for timber. This study was featured as the cover story of the Science magazine in 2023, gaining wide attention from global media.

 

 

Figure    Share of no-cutlery orders in Ele.me’s green-nudge experiment: before and after

 

This case study demonstrates that it is possible for enterprises to honour their social and environmental commitments at a low cost. Just a few hours of work by a programmer is enough to generate tremendous social value. Such an innovative ESG action has not only boosted corporate ESG performance but also brought actual social benefits conducive to achieving national environmental goals.

Collaborative verification of strategy outcomes by enterprises and academia

While the collaborative study between businesses and academia mentioned above is just the tip of the iceberg, this methodology can be applied to the analysis of various problems. For instance, how can a leading company manage supply chains in terms of “E” in ESG? Given budget constraints, should enterprises invest more in reducing carbon emissions or focus more on air pollution management (in terms of “E” in ESG)? How would a wider diversity of staff and management impact the financial and ESG performance of businesses (in terms of “S” in ESG)? What assessment and evaluation mechanisms are most beneficial for enhancing business performance and staff satisfaction (in terms of “G” in ESG)? While it may be challenging for enterprises to find answers to these questions, it is a less daunting task for academia. By collaborating with academia, companies can leverage its theoretical base and data analytical capabilities to more precisely identify ESG opportunities and verify the effectiveness of their strategies. In our opinion, as far as ESG ratings are concerned, enterprises are not just “exam candidates” but should be drivers and practitioners of ESG. Undoubtedly, more collaborations between companies and academia will give a powerful impetus to ESG innovations.

 

Prof. Guojun He
Professor in Economics
Director, HKU Jockey Club Enterprise Sustainability Global Research Institute
Associate Director, Institute of China Economy

 

Ms Wendy Cui

 

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The U.S., Tariffs, and Trump

Coming under the global spotlight, the recent US presidential election was so closely contested that nationwide election polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a dead heat with each other. At the time of writing this article, neither candidate managed to hold a lead beyond the margin of error. Under the influence of various factors, the accuracy of the public polls is questionable. After all, both the prediction of a victory for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election and the forecast of a landslide victory for the Republicans in a “red wave” in the 2022 mid-term elections failed to materialize. However, regardless of who wins the election, the international political and economic landscape is bound to undergo some serious changes as a result, especially if the often-considered “maverick” Trump comes to power.

Trump’s foreign economic policy approach was made quite clear in his first term as president with the slogan “Make America Great Again”. Concrete measures include rejection of win-win cooperation, withdrawal from multilateral agreements, targeting trading partners with trade surpluses against the US, and using tariffs as a main weapon. In his comeback this time, he has reiterated multiple times that, if elected, he will impose higher tariffs on imports from all countries. The tariff rates on Chinese imports will be between 60% and 100% or even higher, while those on imports from other countries will be as high as 10% to 20%.

Protectionism from the founding of the US to WWII

Tariffs are Trump’s favourite weapon in international negotiations to threaten other countries into submission. When he initiated the trade war in 2018, he arbitrarily used national security as a pretext to impose massive tariffs on imports from European Union and China. He even bragged, “I am a tariff man”, believing that “trade wars are good, and easy to win”. While delivering a stump speech at a rally in Chicago about two weeks ago, he said, “Tariff is the most beautiful word.” On another occasion, he boasted that tariffs could serve to fight for peace. In the event of a war between two countries, he claimed he could call both sides and warn them that if their conflict continues, America will levy tariffs on them, which would naturally bring an end to the war.

Trump’s obsession with tariffs suggests that he regards the tool as a virtual panacea for all foreign economic affairs. This may be attributed to different reasons or complexes. First, on the face of it, from his perspective as a businessman, getting goods out the door is a good thing. Otherwise, it is a bad thing. Likewise, a trade deficit is a problem for the US, and since tariffs can deal a blow to the sales of the importing country, of course it is a good policy. Second, whether intentional or not, Trump erroneously insists that the increased tariffs are borne by foreign countries rather than by American consumers. Since imposing the tariffs can also serve to lighten the burden of taxes on American companies and individuals, why not proceed with it?

On a deeper level, tariffs, as an indispensable external economic tool, have a long history in America. Trump’s views and policies about tariffs apparently echo historical precedents. During the Second World War, the US took the lead in establishing the global economic order. In the name of free trade, it called on other economies to open up their markets, as if free trade had always been the national policy and philosophy of America. On the contrary, from its founding to the Second World War, the country had been highly protectionist, with tariffs as the essential tool for its policy implementation.

Since the founding of America, the government’s role in economic development has been subject to change and debate. Even so, the fundamental approach has consistently been for the government to drive economic development with a visible hand.

While the American economy was largely agriculture-based and its economic strength paled in comparison to the UK, the nation regarded the latter as its chief competitive rival. Rejecting the free trade advocacy of the UK at the time, the US relied on high tariff rates to protect and develop its own industry and allocated government subsidies to build its infrastructure in a bid to catch up with the UK. This sentiment grew much stronger when the two countries went to war again in 1812.

A boon to social harmony and economic development

The high regard the US places on levies is evident in its high tariffs over the years. Calculating only the imports subject to tariffs, the average tariff rate during the 1820s once reached a staggering 60% and still hovered between 40% and 50% in the second half of the 19th century. Even including imports unaffected by tariffs, the average tariff rate throughout the 19th century was 30%. By the early 20th century, despite having undergone a downward adjustment, the average US tariff rate rose back to approximately 60% after the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Hefty tariffs led to retaliation from trading partners and such mutually destructive practices are regarded as one of the reasons for the world economy’s predicament during the Great Depression.

Apart from protecting domestic industrial development, steep tariffs were also a main source of income for the US government. While high tariffs do not necessarily lead to increased revenue, they did account for 90% or more of state coffers in various fiscal years during the 19th century.

During the decades between 1870 and 1910, the average US tariff rate was as high as 50%. Such a high share of tariffs in fiscal revenue can primarily be attributed to the absence of income taxes. While a form of income taxes existed during the Civil War, the US business income tax and personal income tax, as we know them today, were introduced by legislation later in 1909 and 1913 respectively. After that, tariffs became much less important fiscally. Nevertheless, for over 100 years before 1913, tariff income afforded the US government significant fiscal space to maintain social harmony and facilitate economic advancements. Although there is considerable controversy surrounding the extent to which tariffs and protectionism have promoted US industrial and economic development, the long-standing and prominent presence of tariffs makes it more readily acceptable to Americans.

That being said, tariffs as a type of tax have a clear problem in that they are inherently regressive rather than progressive, unlike income taxes, which are a common form of taxation nowadays. Everyone, rich or poor, pays the same levy rate when buying the same product. In contrast, the tax as a share of income is lower for the rich than for the poor. This means that the tax rate is relatively lower for higher-income earners, thus contravening the principle of fair taxation in the eyes of many.

All these considerations, though not the principal cause of the American Civil War, do reflect certain conditions in the country. Although the South had a lower income than the North, it paid the same amount of import tariffs. In fact the industrial sector protected by these tariffs was chiefly located in the North.

By the early 20th century, the importance of tariffs diminished in the US. For one thing, with its productivity already surpassing that of the UK, the US became the world’s biggest economy. Also the world leader in industrial development, the US could better afford the impact of reduced trade protection. Out of consideration for a fair tax system, the country shifted to a new system with income taxes as the major source of fiscal revenue. In addition, some regard tariffs as undesirable because they can lead to corruption. Given the myriad of commercial products, there are bound to be loopholes for tariff exemptions. The higher the tariffs, the greater the incentive for seeking tax exemptions and the more money the briber is willing to pay. In light of Trump’s proposal to impose tariffs on imports from all countries, commentators are already concerned about the considerable administrative costs involved in handling tariff exemption applications and the potential rise in corruption cases.

Trump’s views on tariffs may be influenced by Robert Lighthizer, the trade representative he appointed during his last presidency. Perhaps that is why Lighthizer was one of the few cabinet members who managed to serve out his full four-year term without being fired by Trump. Last year, Lighthizer published a new book entitled No Trade Is Free, presenting his narrative on world trade and China trade. Adopting a rather hawkish stance, the book paints a generalized picture of tit-for-tat dynamics between China and the US. It depicts China as the country firing the first shot with its policies, resulting in a trade deficit for the US and causing job losses. The US responds by retaliating, leading to a trade war, etc.―a narrative that has become all too familiar today.

President authorized by Constitution to directly revise tariffs

Just like Trump, Lighthizer is also gravely concerned about the US trade deficit. He believes that America should maintain a balanced trade and, towards this end, the government can depreciate the greenback or force other currencies to appreciate by imposing tariffs on countries unwilling to comply. Such a tactic is reminiscent of the Plaza Accord in the 1980s, under which the US pressured the Japanese yen to appreciate. With Trump’s possible return to the White House, Lighthizer may regain favour and even assume a higher position than trade representative.

Judging by Trump’s personality and behaviour during his first tenure, if re-elected, he would most likely levy tariffs on imports from all nations, dealing a severe blow to global trade. According to the US Constitution, while the power to set tariffs rests with Congress rather than the president, under certain circumstances—such as trade discrimination by a foreign country against US products or unfair trade practices against the US, Congress can authorize the president to retaliate with tariffs.

The long-standing narrative of China’s unfair trade practices, framed by the US to suppress China, is one of the few consensuses between Republicans and Democrats. Trump may be able to bypass the Constitution and directly introduce an across-the-board 60% tariff on Chinese imports. However, his proposal to impose 10% or 20% tariffs on imports from all other countries may face challenges from the Democrats. This will depend on the post-election distribution of seats in the two houses of Congress.

 

Dr. Y. F. LUK
Honorary Associate Professor in Economics

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Three Key Challenges and Four Strategic Solutions for the Hong Kong Economy

Professor Heiwai Tang and Mr Cyrus Cheung

18 December 2024

 

Through the ebb and flow of its economy in the aftermath of the Second World War, Hong Kong has sealed its status as an international financial and trade centre on the world’s economic stage. However, in light of the global economic downturn, fierce regional competition, and worsening geopolitical situation in recent years, coupled with the fact that Hong Kong–as a highly externally-oriented free economy–cannot afford to be complacent simply because it has historically managed to turn crises into opportunities. Times have changed. Now beleaguered by internal problems such as an ageing population as well as external challenges, the city may no longer be as “hardy” as it once was.

To address the challenges in the new era, Hongkongers should not stick to the old rut and must find ways to enhance competitiveness so that long-standing and thorny problems can be resolved.

 

Formidable problems facing the economy

The first challenge facing the Hong Kong economy over the past few years is the SAR Government’s persistent fiscal deficits. After racking up a record-high surplus of $149 billion for 2017–18, the Government registered a fiscal deficit of $100.2 billion for 2023–24. Initially projected to be downsized to $48.1 billion for the current year 2024–25, the deficit is now estimated to reach $100 billion. Barring the reduction in income from Government-issued bonds, the actual deficit would be even larger. Factors underlying the deficits include fast-increasing government expenditures as well as decline in government revenues. Government expenditure soared significantly from $470.9 billion for 2017–18 to $721.3 billion for 2023–24, of which non-recurrent, social welfare, and healthcare expenditures grew the fastest. The last two items are unlikely to be cut. Meanwhile, government revenue dropped from $619.8 billion to $549.4 billion.

The Figure shows that in 2017–18, 26.6% of the Government’s main sources of revenue came from land premium while 15.4% came from stamp duties. In 2023–24, the share of land premium plummeted to 3.6% and stamp duties dramatically slumped to 8.9%. Despite seeing its share rise from 3.5% to 13.6%, investment income is, after all, not a stable source of revenue. In addition, the Inland Revenue Department annual report 2023–24 reveals that in the year of assessment 2022–23, only around 1.83 million people were required to pay salaries tax, which means that the tax base is still narrow. Given the overall economic downturn, it is unlikely that the Government will be able to sharply reduce the persistently-high fiscal deficits in the short run.

 

Figure    Sources of the Hong Kong SAR Government revenue for 2017–18 and 2023–24

 

The second challenge facing the Hong Kong economy is the failure to fully leverage the economic benefits from the integrated development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Despite the high degree of integration of consumption activities in the GBA, Hong Kong’s professional services sector has yet to be fully integrated into the development of the GBA. While it has become a trend among Hongkongers to go north for spending, there is much less incentive for Mainlanders to spend in Hong Kong. At the same time, more and more local people prefer to shop on Mainland e-commerce platforms, inevitably impacting the sales of physical stores in Hong Kong. According to the Census and Statistics Department’s data, the Value Index of Retail Sales dropped from 144.8 points in 2018 to merely 121.3 points in 2023 while the monthly average for the first 10 months of 2024 went further down to 111.8 points.

Furthermore, the Volume Index of Retails Sales dropped from 148.9 points in 2018 to 113.9 points in 2023, and even averaged 103.3 points in the first 10 months of 2024. The decreases for both indexes are equally significant. Due to constraints in rent and labour costs, the local retail industry can hardly compete with its Mainland counterpart in terms of cost-effectiveness. It seems that the professional services industry, in which Hong Kong excels, has not been able to capitalize on the market opportunities in the GBA. This can be put down not only to the sluggish macroeconomy in recent years but also to delayed cross-boundary professional qualification certification, administrative red tape, and other factors.

The third challenge facing the Hong Kong economy is the gradual shrinking of the middle class and international talent drain. Hong Kong’s unitary economic structure is one of the primary reasons for the weakening middle class. Since middle-income jobs have always been concentrated in the financial, real estate, and professional services industries, problems will start to surface as soon as these sectors face headwinds. In addition, while there has been a mass migration of middle-class families overseas in the last few years, the highly-educated new immigrants to Hong Kong are less internationalized. The LinkedIn profile data analysed in an essay in the “Hong Kong Economic Policy Green Paper 2024” published by the HKU Business School demonstrates that the proportion of Asians among leavers is 58% and is as high as 79% among joiners, while the number of connections of leavers is 1.7 times that of joiners.

 

Four reform strategies to chart a new course

Cracking the above problems is no easy task. Let me outline below four policy directions to spark more valuable ideas from all sectors.

  1. Broadening the tax base to tap new revenue sources

Hong Kong can take a leaf from Singapore’s book and consider introducing consumption tax progressively to relieve financial pressure on the Government. The goods and services tax (GST) implemented in Singapore at a rate of 3% in 1994 gradually rose to 9% in 2024. In 2023, the GST contributed to 15.7% of Singapore’s fiscal revenue. Based on private consumption expenditure in Hong Kong, and after deducting existing overlapping tax items, a 2% GST can bring the Hong Kong SAR Government an incremental income of $27 billion, roughly equivalent to 5% of the financial revenue in 2023. Referencing Singapore’s experience, retail sales fell following upward adjustments of GST in 2007 and 2023, but not after GST hikes in 1994, 2003, and 2004. An economist at RHB Bank points out in a recent study that the GST increase in January 2024 did not have a strong impact on Singaporeans’ spending habits. This suggests that a GST rise does not necessarily dampen retail sales. The key lies in a balanced measure that entails controlled tax increases, effective expectations management, and complementary welfare policies to maintain steady consumer sentiment.

As a matter of fact, the introduction of GST in Singapore did arouse controversy. For example, there were views that daily necessities should be exempted. The Singaporean government did not accept this suggestion because of the potential increase in compliance and audit costs. Instead, the authorities chose to alleviate pressure on low-income families by issuing GST vouchers, subsidizing public education and healthcare services, etc. In any case, if the GST rate is set too low, it will not be adequate to alleviate the Government’s financial problems. Conversely, if the rate is set too high, it will breed dissatisfaction among businesses and the general public and could build up excessive inflationary pressure. How to strike a balance in between is a great challenge for policy formulation. Moreover, the Government can consider selling idle assets, including unused premises and surplus equity, to ease financial pressure.

  1. Fostering development via public-private partnerships

The SAR Government can consider strengthening public-private partnerships to promote infrastructure development. Apart from reducing the Government’s initial investment and operating costs, this approach helps to bring in technologies and management experience from leading enterprises. Many international cities have achieved remarkable results through this development mode. Examples include the Chicago Skyway and the Port of Long Beach Middle Harbour Redevelopment Project in the US, the Marina Bay Sands Integrated Resort in Singapore, the Beijing subway Line-4 project, and the Eastern Harbour Crossing in Hong Kong. There are, of course, different forms of public-private partnerships, with “Build, Operate, and Transfer”; “Build, Own, and Operate”; “Transfer, Operate, and Transfer” among the most common modes. Hong Kong can choose the suitable mode depending on its specific needs.

  1. Leveraging unique advantages to integrate into the GBA

Hong Kong needs to optimize its integration with other cities in the GBA to give full play to the benefits of the regional economy. According to the Second Agreement Concerning Amendment to CEPA Agreement on Trade in Services recently signed by the SAR Government with Mainland authorities, the Mainland market will be further opened up to Hong Kong enterprises offering professional services. On this basis, the SAR Government can continue to maintain close liaison and cooperation with other GBA cities to ensure the successful implementation of policies. For instance, assistance can be provided for Hong Kong’s estate surveying companies to complete the filing of records to bid for consultancy services projects in joint ventures within the GBA.

Given the distinct advantage of Hong Kong’s higher education in the GBA, the SAR Government can maintain close cooperation with sister cities and continue to support higher-education institutions in building branch campuses in the GBA and achieving success in their subsequent development. Opening up the “four flows”―human flow, goods flow, capital flow, and information flow―is of vital importance in this regard. Only by doing so will it be possible for the branch campuses in the GBA to obtain invaluable resources from both the Mainland and abroad, and for Hong Kong’s higher education institutions to preserve their competitive edge in internationalization.

To maximize the removal of operating restrictions on Hong Kong’s professional service sectors, such as finance, law, and accounting, in the GBA, the SAR Government needs to continue to lift systemic barriers in the area. For example, in the First Phase Report on Survey of the Current Situation of Hong Kong Legal Practitioners under the Development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the Law Society of Hong Kong and the School of Law of Sun Yat-sen University point out that under Mainland laws, the associations formed by Hong Kong law firms with Mainland law firms shall not be in the form of partnership or legal entity. Therefore, cooperation between Hong Kong and Mainland law firms is mainly based on non-partnership associations. This gives rise to various problems, including differences in handling conflicts of interest, discrepancies in business acceptance and processing standards, and a lack of clarity on the legal responsibilities of non-partnership associations.

  1. Proactively competing for talent and enticing foreign investments

Apart from talent and capital from the Mainland, Hong Kong must also focus on attracting talent and funds from abroad to maintain its relative advantages as an international metropolis. In view of the fact that the career development of ethnic Chinese technology experts in Europe and the US is thwarted by current geopolitical tensions, the SAR Government should seize this opportunity to encourage them to advance their careers in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, the authorities can also consider setting specific performance indicators for local universities, e.g. target percentages for international students, to reinforce local higher education institutions’ strengths in internationalization.

Needless to say, Hong Kong must continue to leverage the unique advantage of “one country, two systems” to draw in more direct foreign investments to the Mainland. At the same time, apart from enticing Mainland investments through the Government’s Office for Attracting Strategic Enterprises, it is also necessary to enhance the presence of leading foreign enterprises to maintain Hong Kong’s distinctive advantage as a bridge to the world. The growth of emerging sectors, e.g. artificial intelligence, biotechnology, financial technology, advanced manufacturing, and new energy sources, will determine if Hong Kong can produce more high-quality jobs in future, thereby expanding its middle class and furthering its economic prosperity.

As we mentioned in this column two years ago, priority should be given to creating a liveable environment when it comes to attracting talent. Otherwise, they will not stay after arriving. On the one hand, they need to find high-quality jobs in Hong Kong, connect with a thriving professional community, and enjoy a comfortable and vibrant living environment. On the other hand, high-quality human capital is a key consideration for companies with an eye to establishing their presence in Hong Kong. Hence, efforts to attract companies and capital, compete for talent, or even formulate cultural policies should be complementary rather than isolated from one another. Retaining talent and businesses is a systemic project that requires comprehensive policy coordination across the SAR Government to achieve success.

 

 

 

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