團隊

But other voices believe the cards are stacked against Hong Kong’s long-term revival and continued prosperity.“The Hong Kong government people try pretty hard, but they are going against headwinds,” says Zhiwu Chen,professor of finance and director of the Institute for Humanities and Social Sciences at the University of HongKong. “Recent changes have made it tough for mainland billionaires to set up their family offices in Hong Kong,”now under the ultimate jurisdiction of the Beijing authorities. “For that reason alone, Singapore has becomethe favourite destination for mainland billionaires.”

Since CSRC and CBIRC had been categorised differently from government organizations in the past, the regulators had more discretion in setting salaries and employees typically received higher pay than public servants, said Zhiwu Chen, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong Business School. “With this new definition for their positions, some of them may have to accept a pay cut of 50% or more. They will not be happy,” he said.

“I don’t think there is much of a future for the belt and road in the pro-Western countries, though China would like to have both camps in the fold,” said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong. “The world is being divided into two blocs again.”

Zhiwu Chen, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong Business School, expects that Yi, given his experience in banking, will work well with He Lifeng, the incoming vice premier in charge of financial and fiscal matters, as well as incoming Premier Li Qiang.

“Confidence has plummeted in the past year,” said Zhiwu Chen, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, referring to both individuals and businesses in China. “When people are uncertain about the future, their first reaction is to save money.”

“If several million people go out and travel this year, that may still amount to tens of billions of dollars of downward pressure on the foreign exchange reserves that China has,” said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at Hong Kong University.

“Once the economic conditions stabilize, I would expect a return to whatever was happening prior to November 2022,” says Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.

Chen Zhiwu, one of several leading economists who expect Beijing to push through a series of pro-growth policies, said he expects 2023’s target will be “6 per cent or higher” — much higher than the IMF’s projection of 4.4 per cent. “Given that they may aim for an average growth rate of 5 per cent and 2022 is likely to deliver about 3 per cent, they need to have something like 7 per cent for 2023,” says Chen, a professor of finance at Hong Kong University. Several other economists have predicted 2023 GDP growth at above 5 per cent.

“Given the geopolitical environment, the impact of Covid zero and the domestic political changes in China, Citic Securities probably has no other choice but to make CLSA more domestic-Chinese client focused,” said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at Hong Kong University.