学术论文

透过分析英国的官方管理的全面数据，我们研究政府债券市场中不同类型投资者的交易行为。我们的数据涵盖英国二级市场几乎所有国债交易，同时我们可以观测到每笔交易的详细信息，包括交易双方的身份。我们发现，对冲基金的每日交易可预测到未来一至五天的英国国债回报率，然而这个预测在一个月之后出现反转。这种短期回报的可预测性，部分成因在于对冲基金能预测其他投资者的投资行为。我们同时发现公募基金的交易也可预示英国国债券的回报率，这个预测率时间可持续达一至两个月并且不会出现发现转。根据我们的深入研究，我们发现公募基金的预测率部分原因是由于公募基金能够预测短期利率的变化。

This study assesses a new mechanism, the deposit channel, in the transmission of interest rate shock to household consumption using an administrative panel data set of financial transactions for Turkey. Our empirical strategy exploits variation in consumers' adherence to the Islamic laws that forbid earning interest and employs a standard difference-in-difference design. Following an unanticipated announcement of interest rate hike, rate-sensitive consumers significantly reduce their overall spending, and the response persists throughout the post-announcement period. The response of debt payment, disparate exposure to inflation, exchange rate, and the demographic difference can hardly fully account for the documented consumption response heterogeneity.

From 1580, the Jesuits introduced European sciences to China--an autarkic civilization whose intelligentsia was dominated by Confucian literati. Drawing upon prefectural distributions of the Jesuits and Chinese scientific works, this paper demonstrates that the Jesuits stimulated Confucian literati to study science. On average, the literati’s scientific works increased four times in prefectures with Jesuit scientists after 1580. But this effect shrank after the Jesuits were expelled by the emperor of China in 1723. Since China’s scholar-official system remained unchanged, the literati’s scientific research aimed to serve the needs of statecraft rather than translating into economic progress.

After peaking around the mid-eighteenth century, grain market integration in China declined by a colossal 80 percent amid a twofold increase in population and remained at low levels for well over a century. Markets only resumed their growth momentum after the largest peasant revolt—the Taiping Rebellion—wiped out roughly one-sixth of the Chinese population starting 1851. This U-shaped pattern of grain market integration distinguished China from Europe in their trajectories of market development. Using grain prices to divide China into grain-deficit and grain-surplus regions, we find that the negative relationship between population growth and market integration originated from the grain-surplus-cum-exporting regions.

环境保护一直普遍被视为国家的责任，但在金融业界，其实早已出现如绿色投资等以市场为基础的解决方案。目前鲜有研究去分析绿色投资会否影响企业环境绩效，以及国家政策如何调节这个影响。 我们以制度逻辑的角度，透过探索促使逻辑和实践相容的因素，来拓展制度复杂性的研究。我们的理论是, 作为一种以金融为手段和以环境保护为目标的新型混合实践模式，绿色投资的成功取决于这种混合能否被合理化。绿色投资的合理性，很可能会被其他混合实践模式所影响。 是次研究分析了来自20个国家，共3,706间企业在2002年至2013年间的面板数据。研究发现每个国家的绿色投资规模会促进企业层面的环境绩效。然而，若这个国家有强而有力的环保政策，会削弱绿色投资与企业环境绩效之间的正向关系。这个国家若有强大的股东保护政策，则会加强这种关系。我们致力研究制度的复杂性、逻辑相容和公私营合作，以达至最佳社会利益。

我们通过跨国企业，研究性别文化在全球传播的现象。研究利用中国制造企业于2004年至2007年的数据，发现较认同性别平等国家的外国企业分支机构，相对倾向雇用较多女性，并任命更多女性管理人员。这些企业也产生了文化溢出效应。研究发现国内企业的女性劳动力份额，会随着其他在同一行业或城市中的外国企业分支机构普及而有所增加。透过一个解释企业异质性在生产力、性别偏见和学习方面的多部门模式，我们进行了反事实的分析。假设公司能够消除性别偏见，中国的总全要素生产率可提高5%，当中19%是来自外国企业分支机构产生的溢出效应。

有见近年的健康科学研究发现空气污染影响心理健康和认知，我们亦尝试加以探讨空气污染会否加剧金融市场中的认知偏差。此研究是根据一间中国大型证券投资基金的专有数据，当中包括于247 个城市、超过 773,198 个账户的完整交易资讯。我们发现空气污染显著增加了投资者卖盈持亏的处置效应。同时我们探究了两项影响空气质素的外生变化，即强风导致空气污染大幅度消散及淮河政策，证明以上发现存在因果解释。研究亦指出调适心情可成为一项潜在的应对机制。

为什么在疫情期间会有大量存款汇入银行？我们发现，银行分行若位于2019冠状病毒病感染率较高的地区，它们的存款利率较位于感染率较低的地区的银行分行（即便是隶属同一家银行集团）为低。信贷提取、国家政策（如薪资保护计划）以及避险措施并非导致这些银行分行之间出现存款利率变化的原因。证据显示，2019冠状病毒病感染率较高的地区与当地民众对其就业前景和收入减少的焦虑有连带关系，导致民众减少支出和增加银行存款。

Fake news on social media has become a serious problem, and social media platforms have started to actively implement various interventions to mitigate its impact. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of two platform interventions, namely a content-level intervention (i.e., a fake news flag that applies to a single post) and an account-level intervention (i.e., a forwarding restriction policy that applies to the entire account). Collecting data from China’s largest social media platform, we study the impact of a fake news flag on three fake news dissemination patterns using a propensity score matching method with a difference-in-differences approach. We find that implementing a policy of using fake news flag influences the dissemination of fake news in a more centralized manner via direct forwards and in a less dispersed manner via indirect forwards, and that fake news posts are forwarded more often by influential users. In addition, compared with truthful news, fake news is disseminated in a less centralized and more dispersed manner and survives for a shorter period after a forwarding restriction policy is implemented. This study provides causal empirical evidence of the effect of a fake news flag on fake news dissemination. We also expand the literature on platform interventions to combat fake news by investigating a less studied account-level intervention. We discuss the practical implications of our results for social media platform owners and policymakers.