学术论文

透过被动方式管理的指数基金现时持有美国近三成的股权基金资产，这股趋势令人联想到其对企业的管治和监察所带来的影响。我们最新的研究发现，与主动型基金相比，指数基金在监察上较为逊色：(1) 他们普遍不会否决企业管理层所提出具争议性的政策；(2) 缺乏证据证明他们会主动地公开或私下与企业管理层协调互动；(3) 他们对其投资组合内公司的董事独立性和薪酬绩效敏感性贡献较少。总而言之，指数基金的崛起降低了受益所有人与企业管理层之间的利益一致性，并把企业的控制权由投资者手中转移到企业管理层。

We decompose the decrease (1970s-2000) and subsequent recovery (2000-2018) in the fraction of dividend-paying firms. Changes in firm characteristics and proclivity to pay (probability of paying dividends conditional on characteristics) each drive half of the dividend disappearance. A higher proclivity drives 82% of the dividend reappearance. The remaining 18% is driven by a single characteristic: reduced earnings volatility. Changing characteristics are associated with low-profitability, high-earnings-volatility firms. Changing proclivity is associated with stable, profitable firms. Rather than dividend initiations or omissions, newly listed and delisted firms drive trends. Finally, the magnitude and duration of disappearing total payout is substantially smaller than that of dividends, indicating some substitution between dividends and repurchases.

Measures of US government policy approval are strongly related to persistent fluctuations in the dollar value. Contemporaneous correlations between approval ratings and the dollar approach 50% against advanced economy currencies. High approval ratings further forecast a decline in the dollar risk premium several years ahead and are associated with a persistent increase in economic growth and a reduction in economic volatility. We provide an illustrative model to interpret our empirical evidence. In the model, policy valuations (approvals) are forward-looking and increase at times of high expected policy-related growth and low policy-related uncertainty, which are times of a strong dollar and low dollar risk premium.

How can fragility be averted in open-end mutual funds? In recent years, markets have observed an innovation that changed the way open-end funds are priced. Alternative pricing rules (known as swing pricing) adjust funds’ net asset values to pass on funds’ trading costs to transacting shareholders. Using unique data on investor-level transactions in U.K. corporate bond funds, we show that swing pricing eliminates the first-mover advantage arising from the traditional pricing rule and significantly reduces outflows during market stress. Swing pricing also reduces concavity in the flow-performance relationship and dilution in fund performance.

我们透过分析舌蝇于前殖民地时期在不同地域的生存条件差异，来研究流行病对现代金融发展的影响。在非洲，舌蝇传播一种对人类有害且导致牲畜死亡的流行病。利用新的地理参考数据，我们发现历史上位于较容易受到流行病影响的地区的公司和家庭，现今获得外源融资的机会较小。通过探索这些渠道，我们发现历史上虫害成灾地区的居民较难信任他人和金融机构、共享资讯，以及学习和采用新的金融科技。

This paper provides a simple unified analysis of optimal interval division problems. My primitive is a cell function that assigns a value to each subinterval (cell). Submodular cell functions conveniently imply the property of decreasing marginal returns. Also, for coarse decision problems, optimal cutoffs commonly increase as prior belief shifts upward. Its implications on language and efficient menus are discussed.

This paper studies how the two types of uncertainty due to ignorance, parameter and model uncertainty, jointly affect strategic consumption-portfolio rules, precautionary savings, and welfare. We incorporate these two types of uncertainty into a recursive utility version of a canonical Merton (1971) model with uninsurable labor income and unknown income growth, and derive analytical solutions and testable implications. We show that the interaction between the two types of uncertainty plays a key role in determining the demand for precautionary savings and risky assets. We derive formulas to evaluate both marginal and total welfare costs of ignorance-induced uncertainty and show they are significant for plausible parameter values.

由于价格资讯在消费者决策中发挥了关键作用，本研究关注消费者购买决策过程中，产品列表广告 (PLA) 的价格排名对消费者点击以及购买决策的影响，以及两个关键字属性的调节效应。本研究基于一家大型电子购物平台的广告数据以及模拟实验数据，进行基于层级贝氏模型的实证分析。我们发现, 在同时展示的几个产品列表广告中，处在购买决策的早期的消费者会倾向点击极端价格（即最高或最低）的产品，并将其用作参考点来快速评估其他选项。相比之下，处在购买决策的后期的消费者会倾向于点击并购买价格适中的产品。这样是由于这类消费者会在价格和质量之间作出取舍而选择一个中庸的产品。关键词的属性会进一步影响价格排名对于消费者决策的作用。对于具体关键词所对应的产品列表广告，价格排名的影响会被减弱；对于流行的关键词所对应的产品列表广告，广告排名的作用则会被加强。本文的研究结果为企业了解价格信息在产品列表广告中所扮演的角色，以及如何制定更有效广告策略带来了新的启示。

团队合作的一大好处是能够促进成员交流，并整合不同范畴的知识、经验和意见。然而，人口统计的特质——例如种族、性别和职能背景——可能会在多元群体的成员之间产生不对称的影响，原因是这些人口特征通常与社会地位差异相关。在此研究中，我们探讨领导者的凝视行为如何减少多元群体中成员影响力的差异。我们从两项研究中发现，社会地位高的成员一般在群体决策过程中有更大影响力，然而当领导者对社会地位较低的成员增加视线上的注意力时，这种不对称影响模式会减弱。领导者的凝视行为减少成员影响力的差异，在集体决策过程中却提升群体信息的阐述和团队表现。本研究对领导者的视觉注意力、多元性、群体决策过程和团体表现，进行理论和实践的探讨。