China’s GDP over Two Millennia
China’s GDP over Two Millennia 兩千年中國經濟增長
Runzhuo Zhai of Renmin University of China constructs, for the first time, a decadal GDP dataset for China from 220 BCE to 1949 CE, which, when linked to adjusted post-1949 data based on official surveys, offers a clear view of China’s economic performance over the past two millennia. The continuous series enables testing of Malthusian theory. Our findings indicate that Malthus’s prediction of stagnant per capita income in pre-modern economies likely applies only to the last millennium. Earlier periods in China, representing at least a quarter of the global population, did not experience prolonged stagnation. Furthermore, Malthus’s assumption that population growth outpaces food production may not universally apply to all pre-modern periods. Theoretical social scientists should approach Malthusian theory with caution when describing premodern economies.
兩千年中國經濟增長
中國人民大學農業與農村發展學院助理教授翟潤卓構建了從秦代到1949年連續的、十年分辨率的中國歷史GDP數據集。在兩千多年的歷史中，中國經濟增長軌跡呈現出千年尺度的準倒U型趨勢。從秦代到北宋初期，人均GDP從380國際元（1990年水平）持續增長至1949年之前的最高水平1,430國際元。自北宋以後，人均GDP則表現出長期震盪下降的趨勢，直到19世紀後期長期維持在550國際元的水平。
在本次量化歷史網上講座，翟潤卓將解釋經濟增長過程的解構顯示，在兩千多年的歷史中，中國歷史經濟增長呈現出一種馬爾薩斯風格的人口驅動模式，但並不完全符合經典馬爾薩斯(Malthusian)理論中「工資鐵律」所描繪的長期停滯圖景。
Discussant: Kaixiang Peng, Professor, School of Economics and Management, Wuhan University
*This webinar will be conducted in Mandarin.
Date: September 18, 2025
Time: 16:00 – 17:30
16:00 (Hong Kong/Beijing/Singapore)
04:00 (New York)|01:00 (Los Angeles)|09:00 (London)|17:00 (Tokyo)|18:00 (Sydney)
Venue: Zoom Webinar
Language: Mandarin
The Quantitative History (QH) Webinar Series aims to provide researchers, teachers, and students with an online intellectual platform to keep up to date with the latest research in the field, promoting the dissemination of research findings and interdisciplinary use of quantitative methods in historical research. The QH Webinar Series, now entering its fifth year, is co-organized by the Centre for Quantitative History at the HKU Business School and the International Society for Quantitative History in partnership with the Hong Kong Institute for the Humanities and Social Sciences. The Series is now substantially supported by the Areas of Excellence (AoE) Scheme from the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China (Project No. [AoE/B-704/22-R]).
量化歷史網上講座系列由香港大學陳志武和馬馳騁教授聯合發起，旨在介紹前沿量化歷史研究成果、促進同仁交流，推廣量化方法在歷史研究中的應用。本系列講座由香港大學經管學院量化歷史研究中心和國際量化歷史學會承辦，及香港人文社會研究所全力支持。從2023年開始，系列得到中國香港特別行政區研究資助局卓越學科領域計劃的重要資助 (項目編號[AoE/B-704/22-R])。
Conveners:
Zhiwu Chen
Chicheng Ma
