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In the Media

Home Research Thought Leadership In the Media
The coming of central bank digital currency

The coming of central bank digital currency

18 Aug 2021
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央行數字貨幣時代的來臨

中國是歷史上最早使用紙幣的國家,早在北宋時期已有稱為「交子」的紙幣流通,比歐洲早了幾百年。中國也很可能是最先廣泛使用央行數字貨幣(central bank digital currency,簡稱CBDC)的國家之一。中國人民銀行(簡稱人行)早在2014年已開始研發數字人民幣,並在2020年4月開始,分別在4個城市進行試用,年底又增加了6個試點地區 【註1】。

人行在上月發表了《中國數字人民幣的研發進展白皮書》,是官方對數字人民幣在過去7年的研發、推行情況及前景的綜合報告。按白皮書所述,截至本年6月底,內地民眾已開立2087萬個人錢包,進行了約7000萬次交易,總額達345億元人民幣 【註2】。

除了人行,其他央行對推廣CBDC也相當積極。國際清算銀行(Bank for International settlements)在去年底調查了全球65家央行,發現其中86%已開始研究CBDC,60%亦已進入測試階段。而巴哈馬更已在去年10月推出了Sand Dollar,成為首個全面使用CBDC的國家。巴哈馬的國土由約700個海島構成,CBDC將有助全國的金融聯繫和金融普惠。

交易成本大降

貨幣是方便經濟活動的工具。隨着數字經濟的發展,數字貨幣自然應運而生。但近年各央行積極研發CBDC,主要是受市場上的電子支付平台和加密貨幣的發展推動,特別是臉書(Facebook)在兩年前宣布發行加密貨幣Libra(現改名為Diem)的計劃。臉書用戶眾多,每月活躍用戶達28億人,佔全球人口36%,是中國人口的兩倍。若臉書用戶廣泛地接受及使用臉書的加密貨幣,自然對各央行構成挑戰和威脅。各央行在打擊非法活動和施行貨幣政策的效率亦會被大大掣肘。此外,在目前中西競爭愈趨激烈的環境下,中國積極進取研發CBDC,亦對其他央行構成壓力、不能落後太多。

CBDC是主權貨幣的數字化版本,由有關國家的央行創建和發行。它是與現金等值的電子支付媒介,儲存於持有者的手機或其他裝置上的數字錢包中。相對於一些電子支付平台,如支付寶、微信支付等,CBDC是法定貨幣,對方不能拒收。

眾所周知,在買賣過程中,要便利和完成交易程序,買賣雙方需要消耗有關商品價格之外的資源或費用,例如到商店購物所花的時間和交通費用,或將貨幣或某種價值由買方轉移到賣方的支付系統。現金是一種支付系統,但要使用這個系統,社會需要花上有關的印刷、儲存、轉運、保安、辨別真偽、註銷等成本。同樣,支票支付也有清算過程中的成本;在信用卡支付過程,發卡銀行亦會對商店徵收費用。

救濟直接到位

這些支付系統的交易成本,在跨境支付中更加明顯,不單雙方銀行會收取手續費,中間作為「訊息傳遞」的機構(如SWIFT)也會收取費用,而清算過程一般需要兩天或更長時間。如果涉及發展中國家或非主要貨幣,費用將會更高、耗時更長。上述種種,都說明傳統支付系統的效率有待提高。CBDC的一大貢獻,就是提升支付系統的效率。

CBDC和現金都有「支付即結算」的方便。現金轉手後,其所有權亦隨即轉移,無需進一步核實,亦無需任何授權,便可隨即使用新持有的現金,CBDC亦如是。但現金有一個很大的缺點,就是買賣雙方需同時同地出現,才可將現金轉手。這當然不利於新時代數字經濟下的交易活動。相對而言,CBDC可以很方便地打破時空的限制,促進新經濟發展。

CBDC的另一個優點,是促進金融普惠化(financial inclusion)。它的使用無需通過互聯網,便利了互聯網覆蓋率低的偏遠地區和發展中國家人口的金融參與。此外,CBDC支付的雙方亦無需持有銀行戶口。按世界銀行的數據,在2017年全球人口約75億,其中竟有17億人沒有銀行戶口或使用銀行服務 【註3】。這是對「金融全球化」一詞的諷刺。金融不一定涉及複雜和巨額的資產。在去年新冠肺炎的影響下,美國政府以支票將救濟金寄給市民。但有1400萬美國人是沒有銀行戶口,他們總得花上一些心思和成本,才可將支票兌換為現金使用。若果CBDC已在美國全面流通,便無需費時失事了。同樣,若不幸遇上天然災害,CBDC可以便利政府及時、有目標地救濟災民,一來資金迅速到位,二來可以減少中介組織扣取的費用。

打擊洗錢有責

許多央行探索CBDC的其中一個原因,是它們有助調控經濟。適當的經濟政策,自然需要建基於對經濟及時和全面的了解。然而,經濟數據主要是季度和月度的,不如金融數據頻密。而且數據並非即時的,也常有日後修訂的需要。CBDC廣泛流通後,政府可以獲得有關經濟表現的實時情況。即使在全國總支付額中比例不高,CBDC的使用數據,也可以提供很好的政策參考材料,特別是CBDC的數據可以細分至不同部門和行業的層面。同時,執法當局可以易於及早發現,並消除欺詐、洗錢、資助恐怖分子和非法賭博等活動。

當然政府的監管愈容易,市民會感覺到愈少私隱保障。而這也使一些人抗拒CBDC,傾向接受「去中心化」的加密貨幣。就這個議題,可以從以下幾點進行討論。第一,由於貨幣政策的需要,在數字經濟愈趨發達的情況下,相信沒有任何經濟體,只有市場提供的加密貨幣和支付平台;而央行只發行傳統的現金和銀行的存款準備金,卻不發行CBDC;第二,即使沒有CBDC,也不代表央行不會監察經濟活動。CBDC的存在,只是減低監察成本而已。政府部門及央行有國內和國際責任,打擊洗黑錢(Anti-Money Laundering)和恐怖主義籌集資金(Counter Financing of Terrorism)。

很難想像有央行在建立CBDC系統時不把這兩點考慮在內;第三,CBDC的交易訊息由政府掌控,而在目前如支付寶的電子交易中,個人的交易訊息是由有關平台掌控。前者的保障私隱程度不一定比後者低,而後者會從用戶數據中受惠。這一點,也是人行推行數字人民幣的一個論點。

或呈金融脫媒

不過,CBDC亦有挑戰,就是要防範黑客入侵,保護訊息的重要性,可謂不言而喻。另一個挑戰,是CBDC除了取代現金外,還可能取代其他形式的貨幣,特別是商業銀行的存款,造成所謂金融脫媒(financial disintermediation)。和現金一樣,CBDC是央行的負債。另一方面,存款是銀行的負債,銀行可以倒閉而央行不會,因此持有CBDC比持有銀行存款穩妥。CBDC會否取代銀行存款,增加銀行經營的困難,要看銀行體系如何應對,例如提高存款利息,或改善對存戶的服務等。

數字人民幣目前仍處於試驗階段,但即使日後廣泛應用,在很長一段時間內,也不會全面取代人民幣現金。這一點,人行的官員早在不同場合指出,在上述的白皮書中也有重申。CBDC的推出,無論是在哪一個國家,都可以說是革命性的。但由於影響深遠,所以必須以金融穩定為前提來發展。同時,CBDC,特別是中國的數字人民幣,有一定的國際含義,這方面需要另文討論。

 

【註1】央行:数字人民币封闭测试不会影响人民币发行流通

【註2】中国数字人民币的研发进展白皮书

【註3】The Global Findex database 2017

 

陸炎輝 港大經管學院榮譽副教授

(本文同時於二零二一年八月十八日載於《信報》「龍虎山下」專欄。)

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