We exploit the implementation of a rural pension policy in China to estimate the average rural-to-urban migration cost for workers affected by the policy and the average underlying sectoral productivity difference. Our estimates, based on a large panel data set, reveal significant migration costs and substantial sectoral productivity differences, with sorting playing a minor role in accounting for sectoral labor income gaps. We construct and structurally estimate a general equilibrium household model with endogenous labor supply and migration. The results of this model align with the reduced-form findings and illustrate how the rural pension policy influences migration, GDP, and welfare through improving within-household labor allocation. Counterfactual analyses based on the model show that the positive effects of the policy remain even if migration costs were significantly lower, and that scaling up the rural pension policy would lead to even larger improvements in labor allocation, GDP, and welfare.
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KK 905
- Ph.D. in Economics, The University of British Columbia
- M.Phil. in Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
- B.Soc.Sc (First Class Honors) in Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong
Dr. Bingjing Li is an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). Her main research fields are international trade and applied microeconomics. Her works focus on understanding how openness to trade interacts with development and political economy factors, using both micro data and quantitative models.
Dr. Li obtained her Ph.D. in Economics from the University of British Columbia in 2016, M.Phil. in Economics from the Chinese University of Hong Kong (CUHK) in 2011, and B.Soc.Sc. from CUHK in 2009. She joined the HKU Business School as an Associate Professor in 2021. Before joining HKU, she worked at the National University of Singapore.
- International Trade
- Political Economy
- Labor Economics
- Applied Econometrics
- “Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy,” (with Davin Chor), Journal of International Economics, July 2024, 150:103926.
- “The Political Economy Consequences of China’s Export Slowdown.” (Filipe R. Campante and Davin Chor), Journal of the European Economic Association, October 2023, 21(5):1721-1771.
- “Did U.S. Politicians Expect the China Shock?” (With Matilde Bombardini and Francesco Trebbi), American Economic Review, 113(1):174-209.
- “Processing Trade and Costs of Incomplete Liberalization: The Case of China.” (With Loren Brandt and Peter M. Morrow), Journal of International Economics, July 2021, 131:103453.
- “Grain Export and Causes of China’s Great Famine: County-Level Evidence.” (With Hiroyuki Kasahara), Journal of Development Economics, September 2020, 146:102513.
- “Trade, Pollution and Mortality in China.” (With Matilde Bombardini), Journal of International Economics, July 2020, 125:103321.
- “Export Expansion, Skill Acquisition and Industry Specialization: Evidence from China.” Journal of International Economics, September 2018, 114:346-361.
信息集、个人期望和喜好都是政客作出政治决策时的重要考虑因素，但这些因素并不能被直接观测。中国加入世界贸易组织的进程横跨二十年，期间美国众议院对是否给予中国正常贸易关系地位进行了多次投票。我们对国会议员掌握的信息集进行弱假设，并采用矩不平等的方法分析相关数据，确保估算一致。这种研究方法能可靠地测试政客在决策时所掌握的资讯，并估计选民、意识形态及其他因素对政策制定和投票时的影响力。