Using administrative data on the Chinese National College Entrance Examination, we study how left-digit bias affects college applications. We find strong discontinuities in students’ admission outcomes at ten-point thresholds. Students with scores just below multiples of 10 make more conservative college application choices that place them into less selective colleges and majors. In contrast, students who score at or just above multiples of 10 aim at and achieve higher but are at greater risk of overshooting. The discontinuity reveals that despite the educational and labor market consequences, students’ self-evaluation based on exam scores is subject to information-processing heuristics.

Academic & Professional Qualification
- Ph.D., Economics, Stanford University, 2024
- B.A., Economics, Peking University, 2018
Biography
Professor Xinyao Qiu is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Hong Kong Business School. She is an applied economist specializing in labor economics and the economics of education. Before joining the University of Hong Kong, she was a Postdoctoral Scholar at the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University in June 2024.
Research Interest
- Labor Economics
- Economics of Education
- Health Economics
Selected Publications
- “Family Spillover Effects of Marginal Diagnoses: The Case of ADHD,” with Petra Persson and Maya Rossin-Slater, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 17(2): 225–256, 2025
- “Heuristics in Self-Evaluation: Evidence from the Centralized College Admission System in China,” with Hongbin Li, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2025
Recent Publications
1Nov
1 Nov 2025
The Review of Economics and Statistics




