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guidance)\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u300c\u5967\u5fb7\u8cfd\u5f0f\u300d(Odyssean)\u7684\u81ea\u7d81\u624b\u8173\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u8b8a\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u4e0d\u5229\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u53ca\u6642\u61c9\u5c0d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u59cb\u65bc2003\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u521d\u6642\u53ea\u662f\u8868\u9054\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u4e00\u4e9b\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8003\u30022008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u964d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd10%\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6210\u70ba\u6240\u8b02\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u70ba\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9577\u671f\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u591a\u6b21\u8aaa\u660e\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u300c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6642\u9593\u300d(for some time)\u548c\u300c\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u300d(for an extended period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction function)\u3002\u9019\u7406\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u57f7\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96e3\u514d\u932f\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u65bc2020\u5e743\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u9322\u7d66\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u96a8\u5f8c\u4f86\u52e2\u6d36\u6d36\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u90548%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53cd\u61c9\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9810\u671f\u901a\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u4f5c\u70ba\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e00\u9805\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u597d\u8655\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u6a19\u5c0d\u63a5\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u7387\uff0c\u5982\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u6e05\u6670\u548c\u5f97\u5230\u5e02\u5834\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u8ca8\u5e63\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4f86\u58d3\u7e2e\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e1b\u8f15\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u76e3\u7ba1\u4e8b\u95dc\u91cd\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6709\u76f8\u7576\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u8ca0\u8cac\u7684\u5b98\u54e1\u6bcb\u9808\u807d\u547d\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\uff0c\u5e02\u6c11\u96e3\u4ee5\u5411\u4ed6\u5011\u554f\u8cac\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u70ba\u5e02\u5834\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4ee3\u8868\u67d0\u500b\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u554f\u8cac\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u7684\u5167\u5bb9\u82e5\u88ab\u7406\u89e3\u70ba\u5fc5\u9808\u9032\u884c\u7684\u627f\u8afe\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9650\u5236\u4e86\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9748\u6d3b\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u7576\u6307\u5f15\u660e\u986f\u843d\u5f8c\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u60c5\u6cc1\u6642\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9700\u8981\u63e3\u6e2c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u6703\u5426\u8abf\u6574\u653f\u7b56\u53ca\u529b\u5ea6\u5982\u4f55\u3002\u653f\u7b56\u65bd\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6210\u6548\uff0c\u8996\u4e4e\u653f\u7b56\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u4e92\u52d5\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\uff0c\u5247\u8996\u4e4e\u5c0d\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9810\u671f\u3002\u5f8c\u8005\u82e5\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6210\u6548\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73fe\u6642\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u5df2\u9ad8\u65bc\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u76840%\uff0c\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u9593\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53ef\u4ee5\u8f03\u5c11\u4f7f\u7528\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5c0d\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u4f5c\u6df1\u5165\u7814\u7a76\u53ca\u6aa2\u8a0e\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u9818\u5c0e\u4e0b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0d\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u4f5c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e0d\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u6e9d\u901a\u6216\u6e9d\u901a\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u53c3\u8207\u4e86\u4e09\u6b21FOMC\u8b70\u606f\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u64da\u5a92\u9ad4\u5831\u9053\uff0c\u4ed6\u96a8\u5f8c\u6703\u898b\u8a18\u8005\u7684\u6642\u9593\u90fd\u53ea\u7d0430\u5206\u9418\uff0c\u77ed\u65bc\u6578\u4f4d\u524d\u4efb\u768445 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period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction function)\u3002\u9019\u7406\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u57f7\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96e3\u514d\u932f\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u65bc2020\u5e743\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u9322\u7d66\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u96a8\u5f8c\u4f86\u52e2\u6d36\u6d36\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u90548%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53cd\u61c9\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9810\u671f\u901a\u8139\u3002 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rate)\u6642\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u300c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9054\u5230\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u95dc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6307\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6 \u600e\u6a23\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9069\u548c\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u3002 \u6c83\u4ec0\u60dc\u58a8\u5982\u91d1\uff0c\u5728FOMC19\u500b\u51fa\u5e2d\u8005\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u6c92\u6709\u63d0\u4ea4\u9ede\u9663\u5716\u6578\u64da\u7684\u3002\u6309\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u54e1\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u672c\u5e74\u5e95\u548c\u660e\u5e74\u5e95\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e2d\u4f4d\u6578\u4f30\u8a08\u90fd\u662f4.125%\uff0c\u5373\u4eca\u5e74\u5167\u606f\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u6309\u76ee\u524d\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u6703\u600e\u6a23\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u4f46\u6c83\u4ec0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u4e0d\u77e5\u66c9\u3002\u5728\u8a18\u8005\u6703\u4e0a\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0d\u50cf\u662f\u4ee5\u4e3b\u5e2d\u8eab\u4efd\u70ba\u6574\u500bFOMC\u767c\u8a00\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u591a\u70ba\u500b\u4eba\u767c\u8a00\u3002\u4ed6\u6216\u8a8d\u70ba\u6e1b\u5c11\u6e9d\u901a\u662f\u9069\u7576\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u54e1\u4e0d\u4e00\u5b9a\u540c\u610f\u3002\u7576\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6e1b\u5c11\u767c\u8a00\u800c\u5176\u4ed6\u6210\u54e1\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684 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\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7db2\u9801\u4e0a\uff0c\u6e05\u695a\u5217\u660e\u826f\u597d\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e09\u5927\u539f\u5247\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7b2c\u4e00\u539f\u5247\u5c31\u662f\u653f\u7b56\u9808\u5f97\u5230\u6e05\u6670\u4e86\u89e3\u548c\u6709\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u3010\u8a3b2\u3011\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u81f3\u4eca\u525b\u597d4\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u4f86\u8aaa\u96e3\u8a00\u6e05\u6670\uff0c\u4ea6\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u80fd\u5224\u65b7\u662f\u5426\u6709\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u539f\u5247\u6307\u51fa\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6216\u4f4e\u65bc\u76ee\u6a19\u6c34\u5e73\u6642\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u9808\u6709\u7684\u8abf\u6574\u5e45\u5ea6\uff0c\u80cc\u5f8c\u5c31\u6709\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u7684\u6210\u5206\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53d7\u6c83\u4ec0\u91cd\u8996\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u65b0\u5b98\u4e5f\u6709\u65b0\u7337\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u5728\u5169\u500b\u6708\u524d\u6210\u7acb\u4e865\u500b\u5de5\u4f5c\u7d44\uff0c\u9080\u8acb\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u77e5\u540d\u5b78\u8005\u70ba\u6210\u54e1\uff0c\u5c31\u6e9d\u901a\u3001\u8cc7\u7522\u8ca0\u50b5\u8868\u653f\u7b56\u3001\u6578\u64da\u3001\u751f\u7522\u529b\u53ca\u5de5\u4f5c\u5d17\u4f4d\u3001\u548c\u901a\u8139\u67b6\u69cb\u65b9\u9762\u6aa2\u8a0e\u548c\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e26\u65bc\u672c\u5e74\u5e95\u63d0\u51fa\u5efa\u8b70\u3002\u4e5f\u8a31\u6c83\u4ec0\u5230\u6642\u6703\u5236\u5b9a\u6e05\u6670\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6846\u67b6\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u80cc\u5f8c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u9670\u5f71\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5de5\u4f5c\u7d44\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6e1b\u606f\u8981\u6c42\u76f8\u5de6\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u6703\u5426\u548c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9b27\u7ffb\u4ee5\u7dad\u6301\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u6027\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u5927\u554f\u865f\u3002\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u52a0\u606f\u5f8c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8aaa\u5229\u7387\u61c9\u8a72\u964d\u4f4e\u81f31%\u4ee5\u8868\u793a\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u4f46\u96a8\u5f8c\u6c92\u6709\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u7f6e\u5599\u3002\u5982\u679c\u606f\u7387\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6578\u6708\u6301\u7e8c\u518d\u52a0\u4e00\u5169\u6b21\uff0c\u672a\u77e5\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u3002 \u53e6\u4e00\u908a\u5ec2\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u8c9d\u6851\u4e5f\u6df7\u6dc6\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u6f14\u8b8a\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u592e\u884c\u6e1b\u6301\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u9577\u50b5\u606f\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u8c9d\u6851\u767c\u77ed\u50b5\u8cfc\u9577\u50b5\u4ee5\u6291\u5236\u9577\u606f\u5347\u5e45\uff0c\u51fa\u624b\u5c64\u5c64\u52a0\u78bc\uff0c\u6bcf\u6b21\u753120\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u52a0\u81f360\u5104\u3002\u4ed6\u4ea6\u540c\u6642\u8ce3\u6b50\u5143\u8cb7\u65e5\u5713\uff0c\u8207\u53ca\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u8cb8\u6b3e\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u65e5\u672c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u50b5\u5238\u3002\u9577\u606f\u53cd\u6620\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u5c07\u4f86\u7684\u589e\u9577\u3001\u901a\u8139\u3001\u653f\u5c40\u7b49\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u7684\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u77ed\u671f\u6548\u679c\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u7092\u8ce3\u8001\u624b\u7684\u8c9d\u6851\u5c0d\u6b64\u81ea\u7136\u6e05\u695a\uff0c\u4ea6\u56e0\u6b64\u800c\u5728\u8cb7\u8ce3\u4e4b\u9918\u865b\u5f35\u8072\u52e2\uff0c\u8aaa\u81ea\u5df1\u638c\u63e1\u4e86\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7a31\u4fe1\u606f\uff0c\u53c8\u5687\u552c\u5e02\u5834\u8aaa\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u6211\u5c31\u662f\u838a\u5bb6\u300d(I am the house now)\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5be9\u8996\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c07\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8cc7\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9b06\u7dca\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u5132\u84c4\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u96a8\u8457 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5c0e\u81f4\u5132\u84c4\u80fd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8ca1\u8d64\u3001\u767c\u5c55\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u3001\u61c9\u4ed8\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\u3001\u548c\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u767c\u5c55\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u5927\u6982\u5df2\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u6703\u6709\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u7576\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecd\u7136\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5916\u6ea2\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u3002 \u3010\u8a3b1\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf \u3010\u8a3b2\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/principles-for-the-conduct-of-monetary-policy.htm \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/u-s-interest-rates-getting-more-uncertain\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta 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content=\"\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703(FOMC)\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf0.25\u5398\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u53f0\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u7387\u66f4\u6539\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u7d04\u70ba50%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6578\u5929\u6025\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5347\u81f380\u300190%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f8\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578(CPI)\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u9580\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88dd\u8fc5\u901f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4ea6\u7531FOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u904e\u3002 \u6c83\u4ec0\u65bc\u672c\u5e745\u6708\u5c31\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u570b\u6703\u807d\u8b49\u6703\u4e0a\uff0c\u5df2\u8868\u793a\u5c0d\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u8207\u53ca\u4ed6\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u57f7\u884c\u4e0a\u5c07\u6703\u548c\u6578\u4f4d\u524d\u4efb\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u5728\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u6e9d\u901a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4ed6\u7279\u5225\u91dd\u5c0d\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u300d(forward guidance)\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u300c\u5967\u5fb7\u8cfd\u5f0f\u300d(Odyssean)\u7684\u81ea\u7d81\u624b\u8173\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u8b8a\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u4e0d\u5229\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u53ca\u6642\u61c9\u5c0d\u3002 \u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u59cb\u65bc2003\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u521d\u6642\u53ea\u662f\u8868\u9054\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u4e00\u4e9b\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8003\u30022008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u964d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd10%\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6210\u70ba\u6240\u8b02\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u70ba\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9577\u671f\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u591a\u6b21\u8aaa\u660e\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u300c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6642\u9593\u300d(for some time)\u548c\u300c\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u300d(for an extended period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction function)\u3002\u9019\u7406\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u57f7\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96e3\u514d\u932f\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u65bc2020\u5e743\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u9322\u7d66\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u96a8\u5f8c\u4f86\u52e2\u6d36\u6d36\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u90548%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53cd\u61c9\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9810\u671f\u901a\u8139\u3002 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rate)\u6642\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u300c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9054\u5230\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u95dc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6307\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6 \u600e\u6a23\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9069\u548c\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u3002 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am the house now)\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5be9\u8996\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c07\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8cc7\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9b06\u7dca\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u5132\u84c4\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u96a8\u8457 \u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u5316\u5c0e\u81f4\u5132\u84c4\u80fd\u529b\u4e0b\u964d\u3001\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8ca1\u8d64\u3001\u767c\u5c55\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u3001\u61c9\u4ed8\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\u3001\u548c\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u767c\u5c55\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u5927\u6982\u5df2\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u5229\u7387\u6c34\u5e73\u6703\u6709\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u7576\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecd\u7136\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u9ad4\u7cfb\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5229\u7387\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u5916\u6ea2\u81f3\u5176\u4ed6\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u3002 \u3010\u8a3b1\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/mediacenter\/files\/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf \u3010\u8a3b2\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/principles-for-the-conduct-of-monetary-policy.htm \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/u-s-interest-rates-getting-more-uncertain\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-23T02:25:21+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-23T02:41:08+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u7387\u6b65\u5165\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u6642\u671f - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703(FOMC)\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf0.25\u5398\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u53f0\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u7387\u66f4\u6539\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u7d04\u70ba50%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6578\u5929\u6025\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5347\u81f380\u300190%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f8\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578(CPI)\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u9580\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88dd\u8fc5\u901f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4ea6\u7531FOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u904e\u3002 \u6c83\u4ec0\u65bc\u672c\u5e745\u6708\u5c31\u4efb\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5728\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u570b\u6703\u807d\u8b49\u6703\u4e0a\uff0c\u5df2\u8868\u793a\u5c0d\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u8207\u53ca\u4ed6\u5728\u653f\u7b56\u57f7\u884c\u4e0a\u5c07\u6703\u548c\u6578\u4f4d\u524d\u4efb\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u5728\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u6e9d\u901a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u4ed6\u7279\u5225\u91dd\u5c0d\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u300d(forward guidance)\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u300c\u5967\u5fb7\u8cfd\u5f0f\u300d(Odyssean)\u7684\u81ea\u7d81\u624b\u8173\uff0c\u5728\u591a\u8b8a\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u74b0\u5883\u4e0b\u4e0d\u5229\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u53ca\u6642\u61c9\u5c0d\u3002 \u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u59cb\u65bc2003\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u521d\u6642\u53ea\u662f\u8868\u9054\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u4e00\u4e9b\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e02\u5834\u53c3\u8003\u30022008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u964d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd10%\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6210\u70ba\u6240\u8b02\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u5de5\u5177\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u70ba\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u7684\u9577\u671f\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u591a\u6b21\u8aaa\u660e\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u300c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6642\u9593\u300d(for some time)\u548c\u300c\u8f03\u9577\u6642\u9593\u300d(for an extended period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction function)\u3002\u9019\u7406\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u57f7\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96e3\u514d\u932f\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u65bc2020\u5e743\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u9322\u7d66\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u96a8\u5f8c\u4f86\u52e2\u6d36\u6d36\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u90548%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53cd\u61c9\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9810\u671f\u901a\u8139\u3002 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rate)\u6642\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u300c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9054\u5230\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u95dc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6307\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6 \u600e\u6a23\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9069\u548c\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u3002 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period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction function)\u3002\u9019\u7406\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5f48\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u57f7\u884c\u4e0a\u4ecd\u96e3\u514d\u932f\u6f0f\uff0c\u5982\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u65bc2020\u5e743\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u9023\u7e8c\u4e09\u6b21\u5927\u5e45\u6d3e\u9322\u7d66\u5e02\u6c11\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u96a8\u5f8c\u4f86\u52e2\u6d36\u6d36\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u9ad8\u90548%\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4f46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u53cd\u61c9\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u52302022\u5e743\u6708\u624d\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u800c\u5e02\u5834\u5df2\u5148\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u7b97\u5165\u9810\u671f\u901a\u8139\u3002 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rate)\u6642\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u300c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9054\u5230\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u95dc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6307\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6 \u600e\u6a23\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9069\u548c\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u3002 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period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction 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rate)\u6642\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u300c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9054\u5230\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u95dc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6307\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6 \u600e\u6a23\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9069\u548c\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u3002 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am the house now)\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5be9\u8996\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c07\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8cc7\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9b06\u7dca\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u5132\u84c4\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u96a8\u8457 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\u3010\u8a3b2\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/principles-for-the-conduct-of-monetary-policy.htm \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-HK","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/u-s-interest-rates-getting-more-uncertain\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2026-09-23T10:25:21+08:00","dateModified":"2026-09-23T10:41:08+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/","name":"HKU Business 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School","og:description":"\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703(FOMC)\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf0.25\u5398\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u53f0\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u7387\u66f4\u6539\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u7d04\u70ba50%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6578\u5929\u6025\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5347\u81f380\u300190%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f8\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578(CPI)\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u9580\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88dd\u8fc5\u901f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4ea6\u7531FOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u904e\u3002 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period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction 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rate)\u6642\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u300c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9054\u5230\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u95dc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6307\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6 \u600e\u6a23\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9069\u548c\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u3002 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am the house now)\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u8fc5\u901f\u589e\u52a0\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5be9\u8996\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u5e72\u9810\u548c\u53e3\u8ff0\u5c07\u6703\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u3002 \u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u53cd\u6620\u8cc7\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7a0b\u5ea6\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9b06\u7dca\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u5132\u84c4\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u96a8\u8457 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\u3010\u8a3b2\u3011https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/principles-for-the-conduct-of-monetary-policy.htm \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u516d\u5e74\u4e5d\u6708\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/u-s-interest-rates-getting-more-uncertain\/","article:published_time":"2026-09-23T02:25:21+00:00","article:modified_time":"2026-09-23T02:41:08+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u7387\u6b65\u5165\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\u6642\u671f - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u516c\u958b\u5e02\u5834\u59d4\u54e1\u6703(FOMC)\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u5c07\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8abf0.25\u5398\uff0c\u662f2023\u5e747\u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u9996\u6b21\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u65b0\u4efb\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u4ec0\u4e0a\u53f0\u5f8c\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u606f\u7387\u66f4\u6539\u3002\u5e02\u5834\u5c0d\u52a0\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u7d04\u70ba50%\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u524d\u6578\u5929\u6025\u4fc3\u4e0a\u5347\u81f380\u300190%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f8\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578(CPI)\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6309\u6708\u4e0a\u5347\u8f03\u9810\u671f\u591a\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u9580\u7684\u80e1\u585e\u6b66\u88dd\u8fc5\u901f\u63a7\u5236\u4e86\u66fc\u5fb7\u6d77\u5cfd\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u4e2d\u6771\u5c40\u52e2\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u4e0d\u660e\u6717\uff0c\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4ea6\u7531FOMC\u768412\u4f4d\u6210\u54e1\u4e00\u81f4\u901a\u904e\u3002 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period)\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u751a\u81f3\u8aaa\u6703\u7dad\u6301\u81f3\u7279\u5b9a\u65e5\u671f\uff0c\u5982\u57282011\u5e748\u6708\u548c2012\u5e741\u6708\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u6307\u4f4e\u5229\u7387\u6703\u7e7c\u7e8c\u81f32013\u5e74\u4e2d\u548c2014\u5e74\u5e95\u30022014\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u524d\u77bb\u6307\u5f15\u6539\u70ba\u5229\u7387\u57fa\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u5b9a\u7684\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f37\u8abf\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u300c\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u300d(reaction 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rate)\u6642\uff0c\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u9019\u53ea\u662f\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u5be6\u969b\u7528\u8655\u3002\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u3001\u6216\u300c\u5747\u8861\u5229\u7387\u300d\uff0c\u6307\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u9054\u5230\u901a\u8139\u6307\u6a19\u548c\u5145\u5206\u5c31\u696d\u7684\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u3002\u548c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6709\u95dc\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u8457\u540d\u7684\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u8abf\u6574\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u53c3\u8003\u3002\u7576\u901a\u8139\u9ad8\u65bc\u6307\u6a19\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u9ad8\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u58d3\u7e2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u3001\u964d\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\uff1b\u800c\u7576\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u6642\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u61c9\u5c07\u5e02\u5834\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u4e0d\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u6309\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u578b\u548c\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u4f30\u8a08\u3002\u6c83\u4ec0\u8aaa\u4e2d\u6027\u5229\u7387\u6c92\u6709\u7528\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4ed6 \u600e\u6a23\u5224\u65b7\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u662f\u5426\u5408\u9069\u548c\u61c9\u5982\u4f55\u8abf\u6574\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u4ed6\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u8aaa\u660e\u3002 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