{"id":238307,"date":"2025-07-09T18:09:54","date_gmt":"2025-07-09T10:09:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/"},"modified":"2025-07-09T18:11:40","modified_gmt":"2025-07-09T10:11:40","slug":"the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/","title":{"rendered":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u6557\u7b46"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u5728\u5e7e\u756a\u9031\u8f49\u548c\u6975\u9650\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) 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\u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u570b\u9632\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8f49\u63db\u70ba\u767e\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u7121\u606f\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96e3\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5728\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u8ac7\u5224\u4e0a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u865f\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e5f\u8a31\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u8996\u7dda\u8f49\u79fb\u570b\u5167\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u4f86\u978f\u56fa\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u300d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8a08\u7b97\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u6642\u6bcb\u9808\u52a0\u5165\u570b\u50b5\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5b83\u5011\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9817\u5927\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u5343\u5104\u5230\u5e7e\u842c\u5104\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u6a5f\u69cb\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u842c\u5104\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u300d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u767c\u884c\u898f\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8ca0\u64d4\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u511f\u9084\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4fbf\u662f\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u64d4\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u64e0\u5176\u4ed6\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e1b\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u904e\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u9805\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u6e1b\u606f\u6301\u7e8c\u89c0\u671b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5927\u52a0\u8a13\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u60c5\u6cc1\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u9084\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8aaa\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c07\u9084\u6709\u5341\u500b\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u914d\u300d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9577\u9060\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>OBBBA\u548c\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u518d\u5de5\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u552f\u6211\u7368\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9858\u5982\u904e\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u672a\u8a8d\u771f\u555f\u52d5\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52d5\u6416\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb<br 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OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6574\u500bOBBBA\u6703\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b53.4\u842c\u5104\u5143\u3002 \u773e\u6240\u9031\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5fb5\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u7136\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65b7\u8a0e\u50b5\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8ca1\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7e3d\u91cf\u70ba24\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u5f8c\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u842c\u5104\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u9580\u5982\u793e\u6703\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u50b5\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u773e\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d0470%\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c30%\u70ba\u5916\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6f14\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u7a4d\u6975\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u56e0\u7232\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9084\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u767c\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u6309\u6642\u6309\u91cf\u9084\u50b5\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e26\u975e\u9019\u9ebc\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u7121\u9808\u9055\u7d04\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u5553\u52d5\u5f8c\uff0c\u591a\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u616e\u3002\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u5ba3\u4f48\u5c0d\u591a\u500b\u8cbf\u6613\u5925\u4f34\u5fb5\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u50f9\u53ca\u7f8e\u50b5\u50f9\u683c\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u7de9\u5f8c90\u5929\u3002\u7576\u7f8e\u50b5\u767c\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65b7\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u8cb7\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u4f5c\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u6642\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u5718\u968a\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u5049\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u570b\u9632\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8f49\u63db\u70ba\u767e\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u7121\u606f\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96e3\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5728\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u8ac7\u5224\u4e0a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u865f\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8a31\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u8996\u7dda\u8f49\u79fb\u570b\u5167\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u4f86\u978f\u56fa\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u300d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8a08\u7b97\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u6642\u6bcb\u9808\u52a0\u5165\u570b\u50b5\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5b83\u5011\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9817\u5927\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u5343\u5104\u5230\u5e7e\u842c\u5104\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u6a5f\u69cb\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u842c\u5104\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u300d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u767c\u884c\u898f\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8ca0\u64d4\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u511f\u9084\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4fbf\u662f\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u64d4\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u64e0\u5176\u4ed6\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e1b\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u904e\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u9805\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u6e1b\u606f\u6301\u7e8c\u89c0\u671b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5927\u52a0\u8a13\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u60c5\u6cc1\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u9084\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8aaa\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c07\u9084\u6709\u5341\u500b\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u914d\u300d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9577\u9060\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u518d\u5de5\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u552f\u6211\u7368\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9858\u5982\u904e\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u672a\u8a8d\u771f\u555f\u52d5\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52d5\u6416\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002 \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u6557\u7b46 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u5728\u5e7e\u756a\u9031\u8f49\u548c\u6975\u9650\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6574\u500bOBBBA\u6703\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b53.4\u842c\u5104\u5143\u3002 \u773e\u6240\u9031\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5fb5\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u7136\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65b7\u8a0e\u50b5\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8ca1\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7e3d\u91cf\u70ba24\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u5f8c\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u842c\u5104\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u9580\u5982\u793e\u6703\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u50b5\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u773e\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d0470%\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c30%\u70ba\u5916\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6f14\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u7a4d\u6975\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u56e0\u7232\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9084\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u767c\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u6309\u6642\u6309\u91cf\u9084\u50b5\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e26\u975e\u9019\u9ebc\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u7121\u9808\u9055\u7d04\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u5553\u52d5\u5f8c\uff0c\u591a\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u616e\u3002\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u5ba3\u4f48\u5c0d\u591a\u500b\u8cbf\u6613\u5925\u4f34\u5fb5\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u50f9\u53ca\u7f8e\u50b5\u50f9\u683c\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u7de9\u5f8c90\u5929\u3002\u7576\u7f8e\u50b5\u767c\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65b7\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u8cb7\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u4f5c\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u6642\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u5718\u968a\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u5049\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u570b\u9632\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8f49\u63db\u70ba\u767e\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u7121\u606f\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96e3\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5728\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u8ac7\u5224\u4e0a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u865f\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8a31\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u8996\u7dda\u8f49\u79fb\u570b\u5167\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u4f86\u978f\u56fa\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u300d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8a08\u7b97\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u6642\u6bcb\u9808\u52a0\u5165\u570b\u50b5\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5b83\u5011\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9817\u5927\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u5343\u5104\u5230\u5e7e\u842c\u5104\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u6a5f\u69cb\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u842c\u5104\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u300d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u767c\u884c\u898f\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8ca0\u64d4\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u511f\u9084\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4fbf\u662f\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u64d4\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u64e0\u5176\u4ed6\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e1b\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u904e\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u9805\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u6e1b\u606f\u6301\u7e8c\u89c0\u671b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5927\u52a0\u8a13\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u60c5\u6cc1\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u9084\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8aaa\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c07\u9084\u6709\u5341\u500b\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u914d\u300d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9577\u9060\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u518d\u5de5\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u552f\u6211\u7368\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9858\u5982\u904e\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u672a\u8a8d\u771f\u555f\u52d5\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52d5\u6416\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002 \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-09T10:09:54+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-09T10:11:40+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u6557\u7b46 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u5728\u5e7e\u756a\u9031\u8f49\u548c\u6975\u9650\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6574\u500bOBBBA\u6703\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b53.4\u842c\u5104\u5143\u3002 \u773e\u6240\u9031\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5fb5\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u7136\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65b7\u8a0e\u50b5\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8ca1\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7e3d\u91cf\u70ba24\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u5f8c\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u842c\u5104\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u9580\u5982\u793e\u6703\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u50b5\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u773e\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d0470%\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c30%\u70ba\u5916\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6f14\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u7a4d\u6975\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u56e0\u7232\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9084\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u767c\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u6309\u6642\u6309\u91cf\u9084\u50b5\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e26\u975e\u9019\u9ebc\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u7121\u9808\u9055\u7d04\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u5553\u52d5\u5f8c\uff0c\u591a\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u616e\u3002\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u5ba3\u4f48\u5c0d\u591a\u500b\u8cbf\u6613\u5925\u4f34\u5fb5\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u50f9\u53ca\u7f8e\u50b5\u50f9\u683c\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u7de9\u5f8c90\u5929\u3002\u7576\u7f8e\u50b5\u767c\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65b7\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u8cb7\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u4f5c\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u6642\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u5718\u968a\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u5049\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u570b\u9632\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8f49\u63db\u70ba\u767e\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u7121\u606f\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96e3\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5728\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u8ac7\u5224\u4e0a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u865f\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8a31\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u8996\u7dda\u8f49\u79fb\u570b\u5167\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u4f86\u978f\u56fa\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u300d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8a08\u7b97\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u6642\u6bcb\u9808\u52a0\u5165\u570b\u50b5\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5b83\u5011\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9817\u5927\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u5343\u5104\u5230\u5e7e\u842c\u5104\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u6a5f\u69cb\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u842c\u5104\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u300d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u767c\u884c\u898f\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8ca0\u64d4\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u511f\u9084\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4fbf\u662f\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u64d4\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u64e0\u5176\u4ed6\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e1b\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u904e\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u9805\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u6e1b\u606f\u6301\u7e8c\u89c0\u671b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5927\u52a0\u8a13\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u60c5\u6cc1\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u9084\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8aaa\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c07\u9084\u6709\u5341\u500b\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u914d\u300d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9577\u9060\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u518d\u5de5\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u552f\u6211\u7368\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9858\u5982\u904e\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u672a\u8a8d\u771f\u555f\u52d5\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52d5\u6416\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002 \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb 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-->\n\n","aioseo_head_json":{"title":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u6557\u7b46 - HKU Business School","description":"\u5728\u5e7e\u756a\u9031\u8f49\u548c\u6975\u9650\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6574\u500bOBBBA\u6703\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b53.4\u842c\u5104\u5143\u3002 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\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u5718\u968a\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u5049\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u570b\u9632\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8f49\u63db\u70ba\u767e\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u7121\u606f\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96e3\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5728\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u8ac7\u5224\u4e0a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u865f\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 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Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 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dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9577\u9060\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u518d\u5de5\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u552f\u6211\u7368\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9858\u5982\u904e\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u672a\u8a8d\u771f\u555f\u52d5\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52d5\u6416\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002 \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb 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Business School","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/","name":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u6557\u7b46 - HKU Business School","description":"\u5728\u5e7e\u756a\u9031\u8f49\u548c\u6975\u9650\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6574\u500bOBBBA\u6703\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b53.4\u842c\u5104\u5143\u3002 \u773e\u6240\u9031\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5fb5\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u7136\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65b7\u8a0e\u50b5\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8ca1\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7e3d\u91cf\u70ba24\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u5f8c\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u842c\u5104\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u9580\u5982\u793e\u6703\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u50b5\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u773e\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d0470%\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c30%\u70ba\u5916\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6f14\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u7a4d\u6975\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u56e0\u7232\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9084\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u767c\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u6309\u6642\u6309\u91cf\u9084\u50b5\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e26\u975e\u9019\u9ebc\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u7121\u9808\u9055\u7d04\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u5553\u52d5\u5f8c\uff0c\u591a\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u616e\u3002\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u5ba3\u4f48\u5c0d\u591a\u500b\u8cbf\u6613\u5925\u4f34\u5fb5\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u50f9\u53ca\u7f8e\u50b5\u50f9\u683c\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u7de9\u5f8c90\u5929\u3002\u7576\u7f8e\u50b5\u767c\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65b7\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u8cb7\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u4f5c\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u6642\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u5718\u968a\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u5049\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u570b\u9632\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8f49\u63db\u70ba\u767e\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u7121\u606f\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96e3\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5728\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u8ac7\u5224\u4e0a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u865f\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8a31\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u8996\u7dda\u8f49\u79fb\u570b\u5167\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u4f86\u978f\u56fa\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u300d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8a08\u7b97\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u6642\u6bcb\u9808\u52a0\u5165\u570b\u50b5\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5b83\u5011\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9817\u5927\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u5343\u5104\u5230\u5e7e\u842c\u5104\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u6a5f\u69cb\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u842c\u5104\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u300d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u767c\u884c\u898f\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8ca0\u64d4\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u511f\u9084\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4fbf\u662f\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u64d4\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u64e0\u5176\u4ed6\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e1b\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u904e\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u9805\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u6e1b\u606f\u6301\u7e8c\u89c0\u671b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5927\u52a0\u8a13\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u60c5\u6cc1\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u9084\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8aaa\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c07\u9084\u6709\u5341\u500b\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u914d\u300d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9577\u9060\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u518d\u5de5\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u552f\u6211\u7368\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9858\u5982\u904e\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u672a\u8a8d\u771f\u555f\u52d5\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52d5\u6416\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002 \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-HK","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2025-07-09T18:09:54+08:00","dateModified":"2025-07-09T18:11:40+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/","name":"HKU Business School","inLanguage":"zh-HK","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"HKU Business School -","og:type":"article","og:title":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u6557\u7b46 - HKU Business School","og:description":"\u5728\u5e7e\u756a\u9031\u8f49\u548c\u6975\u9650\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6574\u500bOBBBA\u6703\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b53.4\u842c\u5104\u5143\u3002 \u773e\u6240\u9031\u77e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u898f\u6a21\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u6d41\u52d5\u6027\u9ad8\uff0c\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\uff0c\u8c61\u5fb5\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u4e3b\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u4f46\u96a8\u8457\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u7136\u95dc\u6ce8\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u65b7\u8a0e\u50b5\u7684\u53ef\u6301\u7e8c\u6027\u30022014\u5e74\u8ca1\u653f\u5e74\u5ea6\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7e3d\u91cf\u70ba24\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u6216GDP\u7684102%\uff0c\u4f4610\u5e74\u5f8c\u76842024\u5e74\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd136\u842c\u5104\u548cGDP\u7684123%\u4e86\u3002\u56b4\u683c\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u4e2d\u768420%\u7531\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5176\u4ed6\u90e8\u9580\u5982\u793e\u6703\u4fdd\u969c\u7f72\u6301\u6709\uff0c\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u771f\u6b63\u6b20\u50b5\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7531\u516c\u773e\u6301\u6709\u7684\u90a380%\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7d0470%\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\uff0c30%\u70ba\u5916\u570b\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u3002\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6f14\u8b8a\uff0c\u4ecd\u9700\u7a4d\u6975\u95dc\u6ce8\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4e0d\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u56e0\u7232\u501f\u7684\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9084\u7684\u4e5f\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u5728\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u767c\u884c\u7f8e\u5143\u4f86\u6309\u6642\u6309\u91cf\u9084\u50b5\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u7a0b\u5e8f\u4e26\u975e\u9019\u9ebc\u76f4\u63a5\uff0c\u4f46\u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\u7121\u9808\u9055\u7d04\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u5553\u52d5\u5f8c\uff0c\u591a\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u90fd\u5728\u6d88\u8017\u570b\u969b\u793e\u6703\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u65b9\u591a\u4e86\u4e9b\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u8003\u616e\u3002\u6700\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u672c\u5e744\u67082\u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u5ba3\u4f48\u5c0d\u591a\u500b\u8cbf\u6613\u5925\u4f34\u5fb5\u6536\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u50f9\u53ca\u7f8e\u50b5\u50f9\u683c\u540c\u6642\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u7de9\u5f8c90\u5929\u3002\u7576\u7f8e\u50b5\u767c\u884c\u91cf\u4e0d\u65b7\u5feb\u901f\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u8cb7\u65b9\u53c8\u591a\u4e86\u5404\u7a2e\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u4f5c\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u8cc7\u91d1\u907f\u96e3\u6240\u7684\u529f\u80fd\u81ea\u7136\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u4ea6\u540c\u6642\u53d7\u5230\u5f71\u97ff\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u5718\u968a\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u5049\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), \u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u570b\u9632\u548c\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\u70ba\u8a98\u56e0\uff0c\u8feb\u5916\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5c07\u6301\u6709\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u8f49\u63db\u70ba\u767e\u5e74\u9577\u671f\u7121\u606f\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u5ef6\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u9019\u500b\u5efa\u8b70\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u534a\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u6b63\u5f0f\u63d0\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u77e5\u96e3\u800c\u9000\u3002\u89c0\u4e4e\u5404\u570b\u5728\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u8ac7\u5224\u4e0a\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u5982\u7279\u6717\u666e\u60f3\u50cf\u822c\u7684\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u865f\u4ee4\u5929\u4e0b\u3002 \u4e5f\u8a31\u6c42\u4eba\u4e0d\u5982\u6c42\u5df1\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c07\u8996\u7dda\u8f49\u79fb\u570b\u5167\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u4f86\u978f\u56fa\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u5c0d\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u69d3\u687f\u6bd4\u7387\u300d(supplementary leverage ratio) \u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c \u5728\u8a08\u7b97\u8a72\u6bd4\u7387\u6642\u6bcb\u9808\u52a0\u5165\u570b\u50b5\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u5b83\u5011\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u5927\u578b\u9280\u884c\u6703\u56e0\u6b64\u589e\u6301\u591a\u5c11\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u76f8\u5dee\u9817\u5927\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u5343\u5104\u5230\u5e7e\u842c\u5104\u4e0d\u7b49\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u53d7\u5b58\u6b3e\u6a5f\u69cb\u5171\u6301\u67091.85\u842c\u5104\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u5305\u62ec\u6240\u6709\u5927\u3001\u4e2d\u3001\u5c0f\u578b\u9280\u884c\u7684\u3002\u5176\u4e8c\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u5929\u624d\u6cd5\u6848\u300d (GENIUS Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u767c\u884c\u898f\u6a21\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7684\u5229\u606f\u8ca0\u64d4\u4e5f\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u511f\u9084\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u9020\u798f\u7576\u524d\u7684\u6c11\u751f\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u5fc5\u9808\u652f\u4ed8\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4fbf\u662f\u50b5\u52d9\u9055\u7d04\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u7684\u64d4\u5b50\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u8d8a\u6392\u64e0\u5176\u4ed6\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u4e5f\u6e1b\u5c11\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u51fa\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u6216\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5229\u606f\u652f\u51fa\u5df2\u8d85\u904e\u570b\u9632\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u800c\u589e\u9577\u7387\u4ea6\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u9805\u76ee\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u56e0\u6b64\u5c0d\u6e1b\u606f\u6301\u7e8c\u89c0\u671b\u7684\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u5927\u52a0\u8a13\u65a5\uff0c\u800c\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u7684\u7c21\u55ae\u56de\u61c9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u60c5\u6cc1\u672a\u660e\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u6e1b\u606f\u9084\u5f97\u518d\u770b\u3002\u57fa\u65bc\u6b64\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53c8\u8aaa\u63d0\u65e9\u59d4\u4efb\u4e0b\u4e00\u5c46\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u4e3b\u5e2d\uff0c\u5c07\u9084\u6709\u5341\u500b\u6708\u4efb\u671f\u7684\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u67b6\u7a7a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u8ca1\u653f\u652f\u914d\u300d(fiscal dominance)\uff0c\u4f7f\u672a\u4f86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u53d7\u5236\u65bc\u767d\u5bae\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u901a\u8139\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9577\u9060\u5730\u4f4d\u3002 OBBBA\u548c\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u77f3\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u5728\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u91d1\u878d\u9738\u6b0a\u7684\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u8b93\u7f8e\u570b\u518d\u5de5\u696d\u5316\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u570b\u5bb6\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u552f\u6211\u7368\u5c0a\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u9858\u5982\u904e\u5f80\u822c\u4ed8\u51fa\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5169\u9805\u653f\u7b56\u9084\u672a\u8a8d\u771f\u555f\u52d5\u4fbf\u5df2\u5728\u52d5\u6416\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u3002OBBBA\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5206\u5316\u548c\u50b5\u52d9\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u4f0f\u7b46\u3002 \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e03\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-yet-another-policy-blunder\/","article:published_time":"2025-07-09T10:09:54+00:00","article:modified_time":"2025-07-09T10:11:40+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\u662f\u53c8\u4e00\u500b\u653f\u7b56\u6557\u7b46 - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"\u5728\u5e7e\u756a\u9031\u8f49\u548c\u6975\u9650\u65bd\u58d3\u4e0b\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300a\u5927\u800c\u7f8e\u6cd5\u6848\u300b(One Big Beautiful Bill Act, OBBBA)\u4e0a\u5468\u5728\u53c3\u773e\u5169\u6703\u4ee5\u4e9b\u5fae\u7968\u6578\u901a\u904e\uff0c\u4f7f\u4ed6\u5982\u9858\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7368\u7acb\u65e5\u7c3d\u7f72\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6cd5\u6848\u9577\u9054870\u9801\uff0c\u9805\u76ee\u7e41\u591a\uff0c\u6d89\u53ca\u5168\u6c11\u751f\u8a08\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u8aaa\u300c\u5927\u300d\u4e26\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u7684\u8a87\u5f35\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7f8e\u9e97\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u5247\u5982\u7f8e\u9e97\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5b9a\u7fa9\uff0c\u8a00\u4eba\u4eba\u6b8a\u3002\u82e5\u554f\u76f4\u63a5\u53d7\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u90fd\u4e26\u4e0d\u63a5\u53d7\u3002 \u6309\u76ae\u5c24\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3(Pew Research Center)\u7684\u8abf\u67e5\uff0c29%\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\u8d0a\u6210\u6cd5\u6848\uff0c49%\u53cd\u5c0d\uff0c21%\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u3002\u800c\u4e00\u5411\u652f\u6301\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u798f\u514b\u65af\u65b0\u805e(Fox News)\uff0c\u8abf\u67e5\u7d50\u679c\u662f38%\u8d0a\u6210\uff0c59%\u53cd\u5c0d\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5185\u5bb9\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5ef6\u7e8c\u4e86\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u901a\u904e\u7684\u300a\u6e1b\u7a05\u8207\u5c31\u696d\u6cd5\u300b(Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) \u7684\u6709\u6548\u671f\u3002\u7576\u6642\u7684\u6e1b\u7a05\u5c6c\u66ab\u6642\u6027\uff0c\u70ba\u671f8\u5e74\uff0c\u5230\u4eca\u5e7412\u6708\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u5c07\u6709\u95dc\u6e1b\u7a05\u6539\u70ba\u6c38\u4e45\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u6e1b\u7a05\u3001\u7279\u5225\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u7a05\uff0c\u662f\u5171\u548c\u9ee8\u7684\u4e00\u8cab\u653f\u7b56\u65b9\u5411\uff0c\u7528\u610f\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u5e02\u5834\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u7684\u8a98\u56e0\u3001\u4fc3\u9032\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u3002\u4f46\u7a05\u6536\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u586b\u88dc\u8ca1\u653f\u7f3a\u53e3\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fbf\u5f9e\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\u5165\u624b\uff0c\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u570b\u6c11\u7372\u5f97\u300c\u806f\u90a6\u91ab\u7642\u88dc\u52a9\u300d(Medicaid) \u7684\u9580\u6abb\uff0c\u598264\u5d57\u4ee5\u4e0b\u4eba\u58eb\u8981\u6bcf\u6708\u670980\u5c0f\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u624d\u53ef\u53d7\u60e0\uff0c\u800c\u5165\u606f\u8207\u4f4f\u6240\u7684\u5be9\u6838\u6b21\u6578\u5c07\u66f4\u983b\u5bc6\u3002Medicaid\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u773e\u591a\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u53ca\u50b7\u6b98\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u91ab\u7642\u63f4\u52a9\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u591a\u4e86\u81ea\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u7684\u798f\u5229\u3002\u4f30\u8a08\u6709\u95dc\u653f\u7b56\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7bc0\u7701\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7d04\u4e00\u842c\u5104\u5143(\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4e0b\u540c)\uff0c\u4f46\u4ea6\u6703\u4f7f\u7d04780\u842c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u5931\u53bb\u91ab\u7642\u4fdd\u969c\u3002 \u76f4\u63a5\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u4f4e\u4e0b\u968e\u5c64\u6c11\u751f\u7684\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u300c\u88dc\u5145\u71df\u990a\u63f4\u52a9\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program)\u7684\u524a\u6e1b\uff0c\u6e1b\u5e45\u7d0430%\uff0c\u6216\u5728\u672a\u4f8610\u5e74\u63a5\u8fd13\u5343\u5104\u5143\u3002\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8a08\u5283\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u88dc\u8cbc\u4f4e\u6536\u5165\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u98df\u7269\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u91ab\u7642\u548c\u98df\u7269\u7684\u88dc\u52a9\u90fd\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0cOBBBA\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u5f8c\u679c\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u662f\u62c9\u95ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7a05\u5f8c\u53ca\u798f\u5229\u8f49\u79fb\u5f8c (post-tax post-transfer) \u7684\u6240\u5f97\u5206\u914d\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5206\u914d\u81ea\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0080\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u5df2\u8d8a\u8da8\u4e0d\u5747\u3002\u6700\u9ad81%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u4f54\u570b\u6c11\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e1980\u5e74\u768410.4%\u4e00\u76f4\u4e0a\u5347\u52302023\u5e74\u768420.7%\uff0c\u800c\u6700\u4f4e50%\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4eba\u6240\u4f54\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\uff0c\u5247\u5728\u540c\u671f\u5f9e20.1%\u4e0b\u964d\u81f313.4%\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u67091% \u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff0c\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u662f\u53e6\u591650%\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7e3d\u6536\u5165\u7684\u4e00\u500d\u534a\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u7d2f\u9000\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u7aae\u4eba\u548c\u5bcc\u4eba\u8cfc\u8cb7\u540c\u4e00\u9032\u53e3\u5546\u54c1\uff0c\u7a05\u6b3e\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u70ba\u6536\u5165\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7aae\u4eba\u7684\u4ed8\u51fa\u66f4\u9ad8\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u518d\u52a0\u4e0aOBBBA\uff0c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u793e\u6703\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6495\u88c2\uff0c\u66f4\u52a0\u96e3\u4ee5\u5f4c\u88dc\u3002 OBBBA\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u9805\u76ee\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u53d6\u6d88\u62dc\u767b\u4efb\u5185\u5c0d\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u7a05\u52d9\u512a\u60e0\u548c\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u5411\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u8996\u82e5\u7121\u7779\uff0c\u85d0\u8996\u592a\u967d\u80fd\u548c\u98a8\u80fd\u7b49\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u64c1\u62b1\u50b3\u7d71\u5316\u77f3\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u4ed6\u5169\u6b21\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bae\u5f8c\u90fd\u77ac\u5373\u9000\u51fa\u5168\u7403\u61c9\u4ed8\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u5df4\u9ece\u5354\u8b70\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u6210\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u653f\u9805\u76ee\u7684\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u806f\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u7d045\u5343\u5104\u5143\u7684\u958b\u652f\u3002\u4f46\u65b0\u6cd5\u6848\u4e5f\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u570b\u9632\u652f\u51fa\uff0c\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ff5\u5ff5\u4e0d\u5fd8\u7684\u52a0\u5f3a\u908a\u5883\u548c\u79fb\u6c11\u7ba1\u63a7\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u8cbb\u7528\u3002\u7c60\u7d71\u8a08\u7b97\uff0cOBBBA\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11Medicaid\u3001\u98df\u7269\u88dc\u8cbc\u548c\u6e05\u6f54\u80fd\u6e90\u7b49\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u5341\u5e74\u53ef\u7701\u4e0b1.7\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u6e1b\u7a05\u548c\u589e\u52a0\u570b\u9632\u53ca\u908a\u5883\u63a7\u5236\u958b\u652f\uff0c\u5247\u5e36\u4f864.8\u842c\u5104\u5143\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u8ca0\u64d4\uff0c\u51c0\u8a08\u67093.1\u842c\u5104\u5143\u8d64\u5b57\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u9700\u8981\u767c\u50b5\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002\u6309\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u9810\u7b97\u8fa6\u516c\u5ba4 (Congressional Budget Office) \u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6574\u500bOBBBA\u6703\u5728\u5341\u5e74\u5185\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b53.4\u842c\u5104\u5143\u3002 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\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ca\u5176\u5718\u968a\u81ea\u7136\u4e86\u89e3\u5230\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u548c\u7f8e\u5143\u5730\u4f4d\u5c0d\u7dad\u6301\u7f8e\u570b\u5049\u5927\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6b63\u5f0f\u6216\u975e\u6b63\u5f0f\u5730\u63d0\u51fa \u4e00\u4e9b\u5efa\u8b70\u4f86\u7a69\u5b9a\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u53bb\u5e74\u7af6\u9078\u6642\u767c\u8868\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord), 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Act)\uff0c\u898f\u5b9a\u7f8e\u5143\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u767c\u884c\u5fc5\u9808\u6709\u6309\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\u6bd4\u4f8b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u6216\u77ed\u671f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u70ba\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u3002\u9451\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\u5e63\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u7f8e\u50b5\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u6703\u76f8\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u9577\u8c9d\u6851\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u9054\u81f3\u5169\u842c\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u884c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u3002 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