{"id":234869,"date":"2025-05-06T12:16:03","date_gmt":"2025-05-06T04:16:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/"},"modified":"2025-10-15T18:24:50","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T10:24:50","slug":"silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411<\/h5>\n<p>\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398<\/h5>\n<p>\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002<\/p>\n<h5>\u7d50\u8a9e<\/h5>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-234869","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-ft-chinese-column-tc","leadership-topic-categories-opinions-and-speeches-tc","opinion-speeches-categories-faculty-tc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.10 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002 \u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u7d50\u8a9e \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002 \u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"google-site-verification\" content=\"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo\" \/>\n\t<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"generator\" content=\"All in One SEO (AIOSEO) 4.9.10\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"HKU Business School -\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002 \u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u7d50\u8a9e \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002 \u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-06T04:16:03+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-15T10:24:50+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002 \u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u7d50\u8a9e \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002 \u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"aioseo-schema\">\n\t\t\t{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#breadcrumblist\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-tc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8ad6\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-tc\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8ad6\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-tc\\\/\",\"nextItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\u4e0b\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u7684\\u5371\\u8207\\u6a5f\"},\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"Home\"}},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#listItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\u4e0b\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u7684\\u5371\\u8207\\u6a5f\",\"previousItem\":{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column-tc\\\/#listItem\",\"name\":\"\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8ad6\"}}]},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/\",\"name\":\"\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\u4e0b\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u7684\\u5371\\u8207\\u6a5f - HKU Business School\",\"description\":\"2018\\u5e743\\u670822\\u65e5\\uff0c\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u6839\\u64da\\u300c301\\u8abf\\u67e5\\u300d\\u5c0d\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u5546\\u54c1\\u52a0\\u5fb5\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u6642\\uff0c\\u5b78\\u754c\\u5c0d\\u300c\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\u300d\\u4e00\\u8a5e\\u4ecd\\u9817\\u7232\\u8b39\\u614e\\uff0c\\u64d4\\u5fc3\\u6703\\u9032\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u6fc0\\u5316\\u77db\\u76fe\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\uff0c2025\\u5e744\\u6708\\uff0c\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7c3d\\u7f72\\u884c\\u653f\\u4ee4\\uff0c\\u5c0d180\\u591a\\u500b\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u548c\\u5730\\u5340\\u52a0\\u5fb510%\\u7684\\u300c\\u6700\\u4f4e\\u57fa\\u6e96\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u300d\\uff0c\\u751a\\u81f3\\u5c0d\\u65e5\\u672c\\u3001\\u97d3\\u570b\\u7b49\\u76df\\u53cb\\u5fb5\\u6536\\u8d85\\u904e20%\\u7684\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u3002\\u6beb\\u7121\\u7591\\u554f\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u6380\\u8d77\\u7684\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u6230\\u5df2\\u7d93\\u5728\\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u4e4b\\u9593\\uff0c\\u751a\\u81f3\\u5168\\u7403\\u7bc4\\u570d\\uff0c\\u5f15\\u767c\\u4e00\\u5834\\u5f8c\\u679c\\u96e3\\u4ee5\\u9810\\u6e2c\\u7684\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\u3002 \\u7b46\\u8005\\u8a8d\\u7232\\uff0c\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u8fd1\\u671f\\u7684\\u4e00\\u7cfb\\u5217\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u653f\\u7b56\\u96d6\\u770b\\u4f3c\\u53cd\\u8986\\u7121\\u5e38\\uff0c\\u5176\\u6838\\u5fc3\\u76ee\\u6a19\\u5176\\u5be6\\u5f88\\u660e\\u78ba\\uff1a\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u662f\\u7de9\\u89e3\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u56b4\\u5cfb\\u7684\\u50b5\\u52d9\\u5371\\u6a5f\\u3002\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u5927\\u5fb5\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u4ee5\\u671f\\u589e\\u52a0\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u6536\\u5165\\uff0c\\u540c\\u6642\\u4ee5\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u7232\\u7c4c\\u78bc\\u8feb\\u4f7f\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u8cfc\\u8cb7\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7684\\u7522\\u54c1\\u3001\\u670d\\u52d9\\u3001\\u81ea\\u7136\\u8cc7\\u6e90\\u53ca\\u8ecd\\u706b\\u7b49\\uff0c\\u589e\\u52a0\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7684\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u3002 \\u53e6\\u5916\\uff0c\\u7531\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7684\\u65b0\\u4efb\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9867\\u554f\\u7c73\\u862d(Stephan Miran) \\u63d0\\u51fa\\u7684\\u300c\\u6d77\\u6e56\\u838a\\u5712\\u5354\\u8b70\\u300d\\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\\uff09\\u8868\\u660e\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u8981\\u6c42\\u5916\\u570b\\u592e\\u884c\\u51fa\\u552e\\u7f8e\\u5143\\u5132\\u5099\\u4ee5\\u4ee4\\u7f8e\\u5143\\u8cb6\\u503c\\uff0c\\u540c\\u6642\\u5404\\u570b\\u9084\\u9700\\u8981\\u8cfc\\u8cb7\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7684\\u8d85\\u9577\\u671f\\u570b\\u50b5\\uff0c\\u78ba\\u4fdd\\u7f8e\\u50b5\\u5e02\\u5834\\u7a69\\u5b9a\\uff0c\\u6700\\u7d42\\u9054\\u5230\\u6e1b\\u8f15\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u50b5\\u52d9\\u58d3\\u529b\\u7684\\u76ee\\u7684\\u3002 \\u9700\\u8981\\u6ce8\\u610f\\u7684\\u662f\\uff0c\\u9019\\u6a23\\u6fc0\\u9032\\u7684\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u653f\\u7b56\\u662f\\u5426\\u80fd\\u6709\\u6548\\u7de9\\u89e3\\u50b5\\u52d9\\u58d3\\u529b\\u4ecd\\u7136\\u662f\\u672a\\u77e5\\u7684\\u3002\\u591a\\u4f4d\\u77e5\\u540d\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5b78\\u5bb6\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u524d\\u8ca1\\u653f\\u5b98\\u54e1\\uff0c\\u5747\\u8a8d\\u7232\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u5728\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u5c07\\u9762\\u81e8\\u8f03\\u5927\\u7684\\u901a\\u8139\\u58d3\\u529b\\u751a\\u81f3\\u9677\\u5165\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u8870\\u9000\\u3002\\u570b\\u969b\\u8ca8\\u5e63\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7d44\\u7e54\\uff08IMF\\uff09\\u4e5f\\u56e0\\u6b64\\u5c07\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7684\\u589e\\u9577\\u9810\\u671f\\u5f9e2.7%\\u8abf\\u4f4e\\u81f31.8%\\u3002 \\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7684\\u7b2c\\u4e8c\\u500b\\u76ee\\u7684\\uff0c\\u662f\\u900f\\u904e\\u64fe\\u4e82\\u76ee\\u524d\\u5df2\\u7d93\\u6210\\u5f62\\u7684\\u5168\\u7403\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u93c8\\uff0c\\u524a\\u5f31\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u5728\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u93c8\\u7684\\u5730\\u4f4d\\uff0c\\u6291\\u5236\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u7684\\u767c\\u5c55\\u901f\\u5ea6\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u5f37\\u5316\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7684\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9818\\u5c0e\\u529b\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\u9019\\u500b\\u76ee\\u6a19\\u540c\\u6a23\\u6975\\u5177\\u6311\\u6230\\u6027\\u3002\\u81ea2018\\u5e74\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u8f2a\\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\u958b\\u59cb\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u8cc7\\u4f01\\u696d\\u901a\\u904e\\u300c\\u4e2d\\u570b+1\\u300d\\u7b56\\u7565\\uff08\\u5373\\u5728\\u6d77\\u5916\\u5efa\\u7acb\\u5099\\u4efd\\u751f\\u7522\\u57fa\\u5730\\uff09\\u548c\\u9593\\u63a5\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u7e5e\\u958b\\u4e86\\u90e8\\u5206\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u58c1\\u58d8\\u3002\\u9019\\u500b\\u539f\\u672c\\u610f\\u5716\\u5b64\\u7acb\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u7684\\u8a08\\u5283\\uff0c\\u53cd\\u800c\\u4ee4\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u8207\\u6771\\u5357\\u4e9e\\uff0c\\u5357\\u7f8e\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u4e2d\\u6771\\u7b49\\u5730\\u7684\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u5c55\\u958b\\u4e86\\u66f4\\u591a\\u7684\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u4f86\\u5f80\\uff0c\\u5efa\\u7acb\\u4e86\\u66f4\\u6df1\\u5165\\u7684\\u6295\\u8cc7\\u8207\\u5408\\u4f5c\\u95dc\\u4fc2\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u7684\\u4f9b\\u61c9\\u93c8\\u91cd\\u69cb\\u8a08\\u5283\\u4e26\\u672a\\u5b8c\\u5168\\u594f\\u6548\\u3002 \\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u96d9\\u65b9\\u7684\\u672a\\u4f86\\u8d70\\u5411 \\u77ed\\u671f\\u5167\\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u6703\\u6839\\u64da\\u570b\\u969b\\u53cd\\u61c9\\u8abf\\u6574\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u653f\\u7b56\\uff0c\\u751a\\u81f3\\u5c0d\\u90e8\\u5206\\u793a\\u597d\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u964d\\u4f4e\\u7a05\\u7387\\u3002\\u4f46\\u9577\\u671f\\u4f86\\u770b\\uff0c\\u7f8e\\u570b\\u5c0d\\u83ef\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u4ecd\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u9ad8\\u65bc2018\\u5e74\\u7684\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u3002\\u82e5\\u5169\\u5927\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\u6301\\u7e8c\\u9ad8\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u5c0d\\u6297\\uff0c\\u5373\\u4fbf\\u50c5\\u6301\\u7e8c\\u6578\\u6708\\uff0c\\u4e5f\\u5c07\\u5c0d\\u96d9\\u65b9\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9020\\u6210\\u56b4\\u91cd\\u50b7\\u5bb3\\uff0c\\u6700\\u7d42\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u4e00\\u65b9\\u4e0d\\u5f97\\u4e0d\\u8b93\\u6b65\\u3002 \\u9762\\u5c0d\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u58c1\\u58d8\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u8cc7\\u4f01\\u696d\\u61c9\\u7e7c\\u7e8c\\u63a8\\u9032\\u300c\\u4e2d\\u570b+1\\u300d\\u7b56\\u7565\\uff0c\\u958b\\u62d3\\u4e0d\\u540c\\u7684\\u5e02\\u5834\\u4ee5\\u63d0\\u5347\\u61c9\\u5c0d\\u5730\\u7de3\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u98a8\\u96aa\\u7684\\u80fd\\u529b\\u3002\\u76ee\\u524d\\u570b\\u5167\\u4f01\\u696d\\u7af6\\u722d\\u6108\\u52a0\\u6fc0\\u70c8\\uff0c\\u300c\\u4e0d\\u51fa\\u6d77\\u5c31\\u51fa\\u5c40\\u300d\\u5df2\\u6210\\u7232\\u8a31\\u591a\\u4f01\\u696d\\u5171\\u8b58\\u3002\\u4f46\\u9700\\u8981\\u63d0\\u9192\\u7684\\u662f\\uff0c\\u300c\\u4e82\\u51fa\\u6d77\\u300d\\u540c\\u6a23\\u503c\\u5f97\\u8b66\\u60d5\\u3002\\u6d77\\u5916\\u5e02\\u5834\\u4e26\\u975e\\u842c\\u80fd\\u89e3\\u85e5\\uff0c\\u6587\\u5316\\u885d\\u7a81\\u3001\\u52de\\u5de5\\u554f\\u984c\\u3001\\u653f\\u7b56\\u5408\\u898f\\u7b49\\u6311\\u6230\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u6bd4\\u570b\\u5167\\u7af6\\u722d\\u66f4\\u5fa9\\u96dc\\u3002\\u4f01\\u696d\\u5bb6\\u9700\\u7406\\u6027\\u8a55\\u4f30\\u6295\\u8cc7\\u56de\\u5831\\u7387\\uff0c\\u660e\\u78ba\\u51fa\\u6d77\\u76ee\\u6a19\\uff0c\\u907f\\u514d\\u76f2\\u76ee\\u64f4\\u5f35\\u3002 \\u6b64\\u5916\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u9f90\\u5927\\u7684\\u5167\\u9700\\u5e02\\u5834\\u7232\\u4f01\\u696d\\u63d0\\u4f9b\\u4e86\\u8f49\\u578b\\u7a7a\\u9593\\u3002\\u9577\\u671f\\u4f86\\u770b\\uff0c\\u570b\\u5167\\u7684\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u9700\\u6c42\\u8207\\u767c\\u5c55\\u7a7a\\u9593\\u6bd4\\u8f03\\u6a02\\u89c0\\u3002\\u5728\\u4eba\\u5de5\\u667a\\u80fd\\u3001\\u9ad8\\u7aef\\u88fd\\u9020\\u7b49\\u884c\\u696d\\u7684\\u6280\\u8853\\u5275\\u65b0\\u4ee4\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u4f01\\u696d\\u7684\\u5e02\\u5834\\u7af6\\u722d\\u529b\\u5927\\u5e45\\u63d0\\u5347\\u3002\\u800c\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u4e5f\\u7a4d\\u6975\\u63d0\\u4f9b\\u653f\\u7b56\\u652f\\u6301\\uff0c\\u8fd1\\u671f\\u5df2\\u9678\\u7e8c\\u63a8\\u51fa\\u4e86\\u5305\\u62ec\\u300c\\u4ee5\\u820a\\u63db\\u65b0\\u300d\\u3001\\u6578\\u78bc\\u7522\\u54c1\\u570b\\u5bb6\\u88dc\\u8cbc\\u7b49\\u63d0\\u632f\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u7684\\u63aa\\u65bd\\uff0c\\u540c\\u6642\\u4e5f\\u8a08\\u5283\\u901a\\u904e\\u80b2\\u5152\\u88dc\\u8cbc\\u3001\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u990a\\u8001\\u91d1\\u7b49\\u9014\\u5f91\\u63d0\\u9ad8\\u6536\\u5165\\u3002\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u5b63\\u5ea6\\u7684\\u570b\\u5167\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u8d85\\u904e\\u6b64\\u524d\\u9810\\u671f\\uff0c\\u53ef\\u898b\\u5404\\u9805\\u4fc3\\u9032\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u7684\\u63aa\\u65bd\\u5df2\\u521d\\u898b\\u6210\\u6548\\u3002 \\u570b\\u5167\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u6f5b\\u529b\\u5c1a\\u5f85\\u767c\\u6398 \\u4e0d\\u904e\\uff0c\\u7576\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u958b\\u59cb\\u5f71\\u97ff\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u5f8c\\uff0c\\u4eca\\u5e74\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u662f\\u5426\\u80fd\\u7a69\\u6b65\\u5347\\u6eab\\u4ecd\\u7136\\u9700\\u8981\\u89c0\\u5bdf\\u3002\\u53e6\\u5916\\uff0c\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u4e4b\\u5f8c\\u7684\\u6536\\u5165\\u589e\\u9577\\u653e\\u7de9\\uff0c\\u623f\\u5e02\\u8d70\\u5f31\\u7b49\\u56e0\\u7d20\\u4e5f\\u662f\\u4ee4\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u75b2\\u8edf\\u7684\\u91cd\\u8981\\u56e0\\u7d20\\u3002\\u518d\\u52a0\\u4e0a\\u5730\\u7de3\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u548c\\u570b\\u969b\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u7684\\u885d\\u64ca\\uff0c\\u77ed\\u671f\\u5167\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u96e3\\u6709\\u5927\\u5e45\\u63d0\\u5347\\u3002\\u5728\\u6b64\\u671f\\u9593\\uff0c\\u4f01\\u696d\\u4ecd\\u9700\\u8981\\u4e3b\\u52d5\\u628a\\u63e1\\u6d77\\u5916\\u5e02\\u5834\\uff0c\\u4e26\\u8b39\\u614e\\u8abf\\u6574\\u81ea\\u8eab\\u7b56\\u7565\\u3002 \\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u96e3\\u4ee5\\u5feb\\u901f\\u63d0\\u5347\\u7684\\u4e00\\u500b\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u539f\\u56e0\\u662f\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u6975\\u9ad8\\u7684\\u5c45\\u6c11\\u5132\\u84c4\\u7387\\u30022024\\u5e74\\u570b\\u5167\\u5c45\\u6c11\\u5132\\u84c4\\u7387\\u8d85\\u904e43%\\uff0c\\u7232\\u5168\\u7403\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad4\\u7576\\u4e2d\\u6700\\u9ad8\\u3002 \\u800c\\u5c45\\u6c11\\u4eba\\u5747\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u652f\\u51fa\\u6bd4\\u91cd\\u50c5\\u723246%\\uff0c\\u4f4e\\u65bc56%\\u7684\\u4e16\\u754c\\u5e73\\u5747\\u6c34\\u5e73\\uff0c\\u66f4\\u9060\\u4f4e\\u65bc\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u4e3b\\u8981\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u9ad460%-70%\\u7684\\u6c34\\u5e73\\u3002\\u4e8b\\u5be6\\u4e0a\\uff0c\\u5f9e90\\u5e74\\u4ee3\\u4ee5\\u4f86\\uff0c\\u5132\\u84c4\\u7387\\u5c31\\u4e00\\u76f4\\u8655\\u65bc\\u9ad8\\u4f4d\\uff0c\\u4e14\\u5728\\u91d1\\u878d\\u5371\\u6a5f\\u3001\\u75ab\\u60c5\\u7b49\\u5371\\u6a5f\\u6642\\u671f\\u9084\\u6703\\u9ad8\\u65bc\\u5176\\u4ed6\\u5e74\\u4efd\\u3002 \\u591a\\u5e74\\u4f86\\u5f88\\u591a\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5b78\\u5bb6\\u5617\\u8a66\\u89e3\\u91cb\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u9ad8\\u5132\\u84c4\\u7387\\u7684\\u6210\\u56e0\\uff0c\\u5176\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u969b\\u8ca8\\u5e63\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7d44\\u7e54\\u524d\\u9996\\u5e2d\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5b78\\u5bb6\\u5e03\\u862d\\u4e4d\\u5f97\\uff08Olivier Blanchard\\uff09\\u57282006\\u5e74\\u5c31\\u66fe\\u767c\\u8868\\u6587\\u7ae0\\u8a0e\\u8ad6\\u3002\\u4ed6\\u8a8d\\u7232\\u5927\\u773e\\u76f8\\u4fe1\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u6703\\u6301\\u7e8c\\u9ad8\\u901f\\u589e\\u9577\\u800c\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u5c07\\u5feb\\u901f\\u4e0b\\u964d\\uff0c\\u52a0\\u4e0a\\u793e\\u6703\\u798f\\u5229\\u7db2\\u5c1a\\u672a\\u5b8c\\u5584\\uff0c\\u56e0\\u6b64\\u591a\\u6578\\u4eba\\u9078\\u64c7\\u901a\\u904e\\u300c\\u5132\\u84c4\\u990a\\u8001\\u300d\\u4f86\\u5c0d\\u6297\\u672a\\u4f86\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u51fa\\u73fe\\u7684\\u98a8\\u96aa\\u3002\\u53e6\\u59162000\\u5e74\\u4ee3\\u521d\\u671f\\u623f\\u5730\\u7522\\u5e02\\u5834\\u5feb\\u901f\\u64f4\\u5f35\\u53ca\\u5275\\u696d\\u6d6a\\u6f6e\\u8208\\u8d77\\uff0c\\u5927\\u773e\\u95dc\\u65bc\\u8cfc\\u623f\\u53ca\\u5275\\u696d\\u7684\\u8a08\\u5283\\u4e5f\\u4ee4\\u5f88\\u591a\\u4eba\\u9078\\u64c7\\u589e\\u52a0\\u5132\\u84c4\\u800c\\u9650\\u5236\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u3002 \\u591a\\u6578\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5b78\\u5bb6\\u8a8d\\u540c\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u61c9\\u8a72\\u8a2d\\u6cd5\\u964d\\u4f4e\\u5132\\u84c4\\u7387\\uff0c\\u91cb\\u653e\\u66f4\\u591a\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u6f5b\\u529b\\u3002\\u7136\\u800c\\u904e\\u53bb\\u4e8c\\u4e09\\u5341\\u5e74\\uff0c\\u623f\\u50f9\\u9ad8\\u4f01\\uff0c\\u4eba\\u53e3\\u964d\\u4f4e\\uff0c\\u4ee5\\u53ca\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u4f54\\u6bd4\\u9ad8\\uff0c\\u6536\\u5165\\u589e\\u9577\\u6709\\u9650\\u7b49\\u5c0e\\u81f4\\u9ad8\\u5132\\u84c4\\u7387\\u7684\\u689d\\u4ef6\\u6301\\u7e8c\\u5b58\\u5728\\u3002 \\u4e2d\\u7f8e\\u7b2c\\u4e00\\u968e\\u6bb5\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\u958b\\u59cb\\u5f8c\\uff0c\\u5f9e\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u5230\\u4f01\\u696d\\u90fd\\u958b\\u59cb\\u610f\\u8b58\\u5230\\u904e\\u5ea6\\u4f9d\\u8cf4\\u51fa\\u53e3\\u7684\\u6a21\\u5f0f\\u4ee4\\u81ea\\u8eab\\u5f88\\u5bb9\\u6613\\u6703\\u53d7\\u5230\\u5730\\u7de3\\u653f\\u6cbb\\u98a8\\u96aa\\u7684\\u5f71\\u97ff\\uff0c\\u56e0\\u6b64\\u61c9\\u8a72\\u8f49\\u800c\\u52a0\\u5927\\u529b\\u5ea6\\u958b\\u767c\\u570b\\u5167\\u5e02\\u5834\\u30022020\\u5e74\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u63d0\\u51fa\\u7684\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u300c\\u96d9\\u5faa\\u74b0\\u300d\\u6b63\\u662f\\u5c07\\u66f4\\u591a\\u8cc7\\u6e90\\u548c\\u7cbe\\u529b\\u6295\\u5165\\u570b\\u5167\\u5e02\\u5834\\u7684\\u91cd\\u8981\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u3002\\u65b0\\u4e00\\u8f2a\\u7684\\u8cbf\\u6613\\u6230\\uff0c\\u96d6\\u7136\\u6703\\u5e36\\u4f86\\u4e86\\u66f4\\u591a\\u7684\\u6311\\u6230\\u8207\\u4e0d\\u78ba\\u5b9a\\u6027\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u540c\\u6642\\u4e5f\\u5f88\\u6709\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u5275\\u9020\\u65b0\\u7684\\u6a5f\\u6703\\uff0c\\u6fc0\\u767c\\u570b\\u5167\\u65b0\\u7684\\u7684\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u6f5b\\u529b\\u3002\\u5728\\u4ee5\\u820a\\u63db\\u65b0\\uff0c\\u589e\\u52a0\\u88dc\\u8cbc\\u7b49\\u624b\\u6bb5\\u4e4b\\u5f8c\\uff0c\\u53ef\\u4ee5\\u9810\\u898b\\u672a\\u4f86\\u5404\\u7d1a\\u653f\\u5e9c\\u53ef\\u80fd\\u6703\\u9032\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u901a\\u904e\\u767c\\u653e\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u5238\\uff0c\\u5229\\u606f\\u6216\\u7a05\\u8ce6\\u6e1b\\u514d\\u7b49\\u624b\\u6bb5\\u9032\\u4e00\\u6b65\\u523a\\u6fc0\\u6d88\\u8cbb\\u3002 \\u7d50\\u8a9e \\u7279\\u6717\\u666e\\u7684\\u95dc\\u7a05\\u653f\\u7b56\\u975e\\u4e00\\u6642\\u8208\\u8d77\\uff0c\\u800c\\u662f\\u4e00\\u5834\\u76ee\\u6a19\\u660e\\u78ba\\u7684\\u6230\\u7565\\u884c\\u52d5\\u3002\\u5c0d\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u800c\\u8a00\\uff0c\\u77ed\\u671f\\u58d3\\u529b\\u96d6\\u5927\\uff0c\\u4f46\\u9577\\u671f\\u4f86\\u770b\\uff0c\\u901a\\u904e\\u7522\\u696d\\u93c8\\u97cc\\u6027\\u5efa\\u8a2d\\u3001\\u5167\\u9700\\u5e02\\u5834\\u6316\\u6398\\u548c\\u7406\\u6027\\u51fa\\u6d77\\uff0c\\u4e2d\\u570b\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u4ecd\\u5177\\u5099\\u8f03\\u5f37\\u7684\\u6297\\u98a8\\u96aa\\u80fd\\u529b\\u3002\\u95dc\\u9375\\u5728\\u65bc\\u4fdd\\u6301\\u6230\\u7565\\u5b9a\\u529b\\uff0c\\u5728\\u8b8a\\u5c40\\u4e2d\\u5c0b\\u627e\\u65b0\\u7684\\u589e\\u9577\\u9ede\\u3002 \\u9127\\u5e0c\\u7152\\u6559\\u6388 \\u6e2f\\u5927\\u7d93\\u7ba1\\u5b78\\u9662\\u526f\\u9662\\u9577\\uff08\\u5c0d\\u5916\\u4e8b\\u52d9\\uff09\\u3001\\u99ae\\u570b\\u7d93\\u99ae\\u570b\\u7db8\\u57fa\\u91d1\\u7d93\\u6fdf\\u5b78\\u6559\\u6388\\u3001\\u4e9e\\u6d32\\u74b0\\u7403\\u7814\\u7a76\\u6240\\u6240\\u9577 \\uff08\\u672c\\u6587\\u540c\\u6642\\u4e8e\\u4e8c\\u96f6\\u4e8c\\u4e94\\u5e74\\u4e94\\u6708\\u4e00\\u65e5\\u8f09\\u4e8e\\u300aFT\\u4e2d\\u6587\\u7db2\\u300b\\u300c\\u660e\\u5fb7\\u5546\\u8ad6\\u300d\\u5c08\\u6b04\\uff09\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-HK\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#website\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/research\\\/thought-leadership\\\/ft-chinese-column\\\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\\\/#breadcrumblist\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-06T12:16:03+08:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-10-15T18:24:50+08:00\"},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/\",\"name\":\"HKU Business School\",\"inLanguage\":\"zh-HK\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\\\/tc\\\/#organization\"}}]}\n\t\t<\/script>\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO -->\n\n","aioseo_head_json":{"title":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f - HKU Business School","description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002 \u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u7d50\u8a9e \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002 \u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","canonical_url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","robots":"max-image-preview:large","keywords":"","webmasterTools":{"google-site-verification":"google-site-verification=MjdkluDgHpNk2vz5slbwER2Gusw2rUDQuVULMERWzLo","miscellaneous":""},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#breadcrumblist","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#listItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-tc\/#listItem","name":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-tc\/#listItem","position":2,"name":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6","item":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-tc\/","nextItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#listItem","name":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f"},"previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#listItem","name":"Home"}},{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#listItem","position":3,"name":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f","previousItem":{"@type":"ListItem","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-tc\/#listItem","name":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6"}}]},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#organization","name":"HKU Business School","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#webpage","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","name":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f - HKU Business School","description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002 \u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u7d50\u8a9e \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002 \u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-HK","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2025-05-06T12:16:03+08:00","dateModified":"2025-10-15T18:24:50+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/","name":"HKU Business School","inLanguage":"zh-HK","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"HKU Business School -","og:type":"article","og:title":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f - HKU Business School","og:description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002 \u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u7d50\u8a9e \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002 \u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","og:url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/","article:published_time":"2025-05-06T04:16:03+00:00","article:modified_time":"2025-10-15T10:24:50+00:00","twitter:card":"summary_large_image","twitter:title":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f - HKU Business School","twitter:description":"2018\u5e743\u670822\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6839\u64da\u300c301\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u6642\uff0c\u5b78\u754c\u5c0d\u300c\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u4ecd\u9817\u7232\u8b39\u614e\uff0c\u64d4\u5fc3\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6fc0\u5316\u77db\u76fe\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c2025\u5e744\u6708\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7c3d\u7f72\u884c\u653f\u4ee4\uff0c\u5c0d180\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u548c\u5730\u5340\u52a0\u5fb510%\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f4e\u57fa\u6e96\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u3001\u97d3\u570b\u7b49\u76df\u53cb\u5fb5\u6536\u8d85\u904e20%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u6beb\u7121\u7591\u554f\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u6380\u8d77\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5df2\u7d93\u5728\u4e2d\u7f8e\u4e4b\u9593\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5168\u7403\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u4e00\u5834\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u3002 \u7b46\u8005\u8a8d\u7232\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u96d6\u770b\u4f3c\u53cd\u8986\u7121\u5e38\uff0c\u5176\u6838\u5fc3\u76ee\u6a19\u5176\u5be6\u5f88\u660e\u78ba\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u7de9\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u56b4\u5cfb\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5371\u6a5f\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5927\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u4ee5\u671f\u589e\u52a0\u653f\u5e9c\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4ee5\u95dc\u7a05\u7232\u7c4c\u78bc\u8feb\u4f7f\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u3001\u670d\u52d9\u3001\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u53ca\u8ecd\u706b\u7b49\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u65b0\u4efb\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u7c73\u862d(Stephan Miran) \u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d\uff08Mar-a-Lago Accord\uff09\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u8981\u6c42\u5916\u570b\u592e\u884c\u51fa\u552e\u7f8e\u5143\u5132\u5099\u4ee5\u4ee4\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5404\u570b\u9084\u9700\u8981\u8cfc\u8cb7\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8d85\u9577\u671f\u570b\u50b5\uff0c\u78ba\u4fdd\u7f8e\u50b5\u5e02\u5834\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u5230\u6e1b\u8f15\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u3002 \u9700\u8981\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u6709\u6548\u7de9\u89e3\u50b5\u52d9\u58d3\u529b\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u3002\u591a\u4f4d\u77e5\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8ca1\u653f\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5747\u8a8d\u7232\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u4eca\u5e74\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\u751a\u81f3\u9677\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\uff08IMF\uff09\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e2.7%\u8abf\u4f4e\u81f31.8%\u3002 \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u64fe\u4e82\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u5f62\u7684\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u524a\u5f31\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u6291\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u901f\u5ea6\uff0c\u4ee5\u5f37\u5316\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u5c0e\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u9019\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u540c\u6a23\u6975\u5177\u6311\u6230\u6027\u3002\u81ea2018\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u901a\u904e\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff08\u5373\u5728\u6d77\u5916\u5efa\u7acb\u5099\u4efd\u751f\u7522\u57fa\u5730\uff09\u548c\u9593\u63a5\u8cbf\u6613\u7e5e\u958b\u4e86\u90e8\u5206\u95dc\u7a05\u58c1\u58d8\u3002\u9019\u500b\u539f\u672c\u610f\u5716\u5b64\u7acb\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8a08\u5283\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u6771\u5357\u4e9e\uff0c\u5357\u7f8e\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u6771\u7b49\u5730\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u5c55\u958b\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4f86\u5f80\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u4e86\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8207\u5408\u4f5c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u91cd\u69cb\u8a08\u5283\u4e26\u672a\u5b8c\u5168\u594f\u6548\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u96d9\u65b9\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u5411 \u77ed\u671f\u5167\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6839\u64da\u570b\u969b\u53cd\u61c9\u8abf\u6574\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5c0d\u90e8\u5206\u793a\u597d\u570b\u5bb6\u964d\u4f4e\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u83ef\u95dc\u7a05\u4ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u9ad8\u65bc2018\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u82e5\u5169\u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\u5c0d\u6297\uff0c\u5373\u4fbf\u50c5\u6301\u7e8c\u6578\u6708\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c07\u5c0d\u96d9\u65b9\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u56b4\u91cd\u50b7\u5bb3\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u53ef\u80fd\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u65b9\u4e0d\u5f97\u4e0d\u8b93\u6b65\u3002 \u9762\u5c0d\u8cbf\u6613\u58c1\u58d8\uff0c\u4e2d\u8cc7\u4f01\u696d\u61c9\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63a8\u9032\u300c\u4e2d\u570b+1\u300d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u958b\u62d3\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u61c9\u5c0d\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u570b\u5167\u4f01\u696d\u7af6\u722d\u6108\u52a0\u6fc0\u70c8\uff0c\u300c\u4e0d\u51fa\u6d77\u5c31\u51fa\u5c40\u300d\u5df2\u6210\u7232\u8a31\u591a\u4f01\u696d\u5171\u8b58\u3002\u4f46\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u300c\u4e82\u51fa\u6d77\u300d\u540c\u6a23\u503c\u5f97\u8b66\u60d5\u3002\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\u89e3\u85e5\uff0c\u6587\u5316\u885d\u7a81\u3001\u52de\u5de5\u554f\u984c\u3001\u653f\u7b56\u5408\u898f\u7b49\u6311\u6230\u53ef\u80fd\u6bd4\u570b\u5167\u7af6\u722d\u66f4\u5fa9\u96dc\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5bb6\u9700\u7406\u6027\u8a55\u4f30\u6295\u8cc7\u56de\u5831\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u78ba\u51fa\u6d77\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u907f\u514d\u76f2\u76ee\u64f4\u5f35\u3002 \u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u7232\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8f49\u578b\u7a7a\u9593\u3002\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9700\u6c42\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7a7a\u9593\u6bd4\u8f03\u6a02\u89c0\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u9ad8\u7aef\u88fd\u9020\u7b49\u884c\u696d\u7684\u6280\u8853\u5275\u65b0\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u7a4d\u6975\u63d0\u4f9b\u653f\u7b56\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u8fd1\u671f\u5df2\u9678\u7e8c\u63a8\u51fa\u4e86\u5305\u62ec\u300c\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\u300d\u3001\u6578\u78bc\u7522\u54c1\u570b\u5bb6\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u63d0\u632f\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u8a08\u5283\u901a\u904e\u80b2\u5152\u88dc\u8cbc\u3001\u63d0\u9ad8\u990a\u8001\u91d1\u7b49\u9014\u5f91\u63d0\u9ad8\u6536\u5165\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u7684\u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u8d85\u904e\u6b64\u524d\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u5404\u9805\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u5df2\u521d\u898b\u6210\u6548\u3002 \u570b\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u5c1a\u5f85\u767c\u6398 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u95dc\u7a05\u958b\u59cb\u5f71\u97ff\u51fa\u53e3\u5f8c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u5426\u80fd\u7a69\u6b65\u5347\u6eab\u4ecd\u7136\u9700\u8981\u89c0\u5bdf\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u8d70\u5f31\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4e5f\u662f\u4ee4\u6d88\u8cbb\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u548c\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u80fd\u96e3\u6709\u5927\u5e45\u63d0\u5347\u3002\u5728\u6b64\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u4f01\u696d\u4ecd\u9700\u8981\u4e3b\u52d5\u628a\u63e1\u6d77\u5916\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e26\u8b39\u614e\u8abf\u6574\u81ea\u8eab\u7b56\u7565\u3002 \u6d88\u8cbb\u96e3\u4ee5\u5feb\u901f\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6975\u9ad8\u7684\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u30022024\u5e74\u570b\u5167\u5c45\u6c11\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u8d85\u904e43%\uff0c\u7232\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7576\u4e2d\u6700\u9ad8\u3002 \u800c\u5c45\u6c11\u4eba\u5747\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u6bd4\u91cd\u50c5\u723246%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc56%\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u66f4\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad460%-70%\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5f9e90\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u5c31\u4e00\u76f4\u8655\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e14\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u9084\u6703\u9ad8\u65bc\u5176\u4ed6\u5e74\u4efd\u3002 \u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u5f88\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5617\u8a66\u89e3\u91cb\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u6210\u56e0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u862d\u4e4d\u5f97\uff08Olivier Blanchard\uff09\u57282006\u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u767c\u8868\u6587\u7ae0\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u7232\u5927\u773e\u76f8\u4fe1\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u9ad8\u901f\u589e\u9577\u800c\u4eba\u53e3\u5c07\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u7db2\u5c1a\u672a\u5b8c\u5584\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u901a\u904e\u300c\u5132\u84c4\u990a\u8001\u300d\u4f86\u5c0d\u6297\u672a\u4f86\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u53e6\u59162000\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\u671f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u5e02\u5834\u5feb\u901f\u64f4\u5f35\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u6d6a\u6f6e\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u5927\u773e\u95dc\u65bc\u8cfc\u623f\u53ca\u5275\u696d\u7684\u8a08\u5283\u4e5f\u4ee4\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9078\u64c7\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\u800c\u9650\u5236\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u591a\u6578\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u540c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8a72\u8a2d\u6cd5\u964d\u4f4e\u5132\u84c4\u7387\uff0c\u91cb\u653e\u66f4\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u4e8c\u4e09\u5341\u5e74\uff0c\u623f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4eba\u53e3\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u53e3\u4f54\u6bd4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u589e\u9577\u6709\u9650\u7b49\u5c0e\u81f4\u9ad8\u5132\u84c4\u7387\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\u3002 \u4e2d\u7f8e\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u958b\u59cb\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f9e\u653f\u5e9c\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u90fd\u958b\u59cb\u610f\u8b58\u5230\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u4ee4\u81ea\u8eab\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u61c9\u8a72\u8f49\u800c\u52a0\u5927\u529b\u5ea6\u958b\u767c\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u30022020\u5e74\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u300c\u96d9\u5faa\u74b0\u300d\u6b63\u662f\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u548c\u7cbe\u529b\u6295\u5165\u570b\u5167\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u4e00\u6b65\u3002\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u6703\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u5f88\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5275\u9020\u65b0\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u6fc0\u767c\u570b\u5167\u65b0\u7684\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u6f5b\u529b\u3002\u5728\u4ee5\u820a\u63db\u65b0\uff0c\u589e\u52a0\u88dc\u8cbc\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u898b\u672a\u4f86\u5404\u7d1a\u653f\u5e9c\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u901a\u904e\u767c\u653e\u6d88\u8cbb\u5238\uff0c\u5229\u606f\u6216\u7a05\u8ce6\u6e1b\u514d\u7b49\u624b\u6bb5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u7d50\u8a9e \u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\u975e\u4e00\u6642\u8208\u8d77\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u6230\u7565\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u58d3\u529b\u96d6\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u7522\u696d\u93c8\u97cc\u6027\u5efa\u8a2d\u3001\u5167\u9700\u5e02\u5834\u6316\u6398\u548c\u7406\u6027\u51fa\u6d77\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4ecd\u5177\u5099\u8f03\u5f37\u7684\u6297\u98a8\u96aa\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u95dc\u9375\u5728\u65bc\u4fdd\u6301\u6230\u7565\u5b9a\u529b\uff0c\u5728\u8b8a\u5c40\u4e2d\u5c0b\u627e\u65b0\u7684\u589e\u9577\u9ede\u3002 \u9127\u5e0c\u7152\u6559\u6388 \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5c0d\u5916\u4e8b\u52d9\uff09\u3001\u99ae\u570b\u7d93\u99ae\u570b\u7db8\u57fa\u91d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u4e9e\u6d32\u74b0\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u6240\u9577 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u4e8e\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e94\u6708\u4e00\u65e5\u8f09\u4e8e\u300aFT\u4e2d\u6587\u7db2\u300b\u300c\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09"},"aioseo_meta_data":{"post_id":"234869","title":null,"description":null,"keywords":null,"keyphrases":{"focus":{"keyphrase":"","score":0,"analysis":{"keyphraseInTitle":{"score":0,"maxScore":9,"error":1}}},"additional":[]},"primary_term":null,"canonical_url":null,"og_title":null,"og_description":null,"og_object_type":"default","og_image_type":"default","og_image_url":null,"og_image_width":null,"og_image_height":null,"og_image_custom_url":null,"og_image_custom_fields":null,"og_video":"","og_custom_url":null,"og_article_section":null,"og_article_tags":null,"twitter_use_og":false,"twitter_card":"default","twitter_image_type":"default","twitter_image_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_url":null,"twitter_image_custom_fields":null,"twitter_title":null,"twitter_description":null,"schema":{"blockGraphs":[],"customGraphs":[],"default":{"data":{"Article":[],"Course":[],"Dataset":[],"FAQPage":[],"Movie":[],"Person":[],"Product":[],"ProductReview":[],"Car":[],"Recipe":[],"Service":[],"SoftwareApplication":[],"WebPage":[]},"graphName":"WebPage","isEnabled":true},"graphs":[]},"schema_type":"default","schema_type_options":null,"pillar_content":false,"robots_default":true,"robots_noindex":false,"robots_noarchive":false,"robots_nosnippet":false,"robots_nofollow":false,"robots_noimageindex":false,"robots_noodp":false,"robots_notranslate":false,"robots_max_snippet":"-1","robots_max_videopreview":"-1","robots_max_imagepreview":"large","priority":null,"frequency":"default","local_seo":null,"breadcrumb_settings":null,"limit_modified_date":0,"ai":null,"created":"2025-05-06 04:16:23","updated":"2025-10-15 10:24:51","seo_analyzer_scan_date":null},"aioseo_breadcrumb":"<div class=\"aioseo-breadcrumbs\"><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/\" title=\"Home\">Home<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-tc\/\" title=\"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6\">\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6<\/a>\n\t\t<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb-separator\">&raquo;<\/span><span class=\"aioseo-breadcrumb\">\n\t\t\t\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f\n\t\t<\/span><\/div>","aioseo_breadcrumb_json":[{"label":"Home","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/"},{"label":"\u660e\u5fb7\u5546\u8ad6","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column-tc\/"},{"label":"\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u4e0b\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u5371\u8207\u6a5f","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/ft-chinese-column\/silver-lining-of-trade-war-2-0-for-the-chinese-economy\/"}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/234869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/thought-leadership"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/234869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":245358,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/thought-leadership\/234869\/revisions\/245358"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}