{"id":233364,"date":"2025-04-09T11:58:14","date_gmt":"2025-04-09T03:58:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/research\/thought-leadership\/behind-trumps-tariff-hammer\/"},"modified":"2025-10-09T12:39:48","modified_gmt":"2025-10-09T04:39:48","slug":"behind-trumps-tariff-hammer","status":"publish","type":"thought-leadership","link":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/behind-trumps-tariff-hammer\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u95dc\u7a05\u5927\u68d2\u7684\u80cc\u5f8c"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u7f8e\u570b\u89e3\u653e\u65e5\u5ba3\u4f48\u4ed6\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5fb5\u6536\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05(reciprocal tariffs)\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u6f14\u7e79\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u5192\u5929\u4e0b\u4e4b\u5927\u4e0d\u97d9\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u9577\u671f\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u570b\u63a0\u596a\u7684\u865b\u5047\u9673\u8ff0\u70ba\u85c9\u53e3\uff0c\u5411\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5fb5\u6536\u984d\u5916\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u6db5\u84cb\u7bc4\u570d\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u5c6c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e4b\u6700\uff0c\u4f46\u8a08\u5283\u537b\u4e0d\u96e2\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u8349\u7387\u96a8\u610f\u548c\u524d\u5f8c\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u672c\u8272\u3002\u82e5\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53cd\u6620\u5916\u570b\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u5c0d\u5f85\uff0c\u90a3\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u6fb3\u6d32\u6709\u8cbf\u6613\u9806\u5dee\u53c8\u4ee3\u8868\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u70ba\u4f55\u4ecd\u8981\u5c0d\u6fb3\u6d32\u5fb5\u653610%\u95dc\u7a05\uff1f\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53ea\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5546\u54c1\u4e0a\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u8cbf\u6613\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5247\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u67090.3\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9806\u5dee\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u5546\u54c1\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee1.22\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6f14\u8aac\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u65bc\u5c0d\u4e0d\u540c\u570b\u5bb6\u95dc\u7a05\u7a05\u7387\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u96a8\u610f\u5984\u70ba\u505a\u6cd5\u7c97\u66b4\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u5c08\u696d\u537b\u6b20\u7f3a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6839\u64da\uff0c\u8aac\u662f\u5148\u8a08\u7b97\u5916\u570b\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u95dc\u7a05\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u5185\u5bb9\u537b\u5b8c\u5168\u548c\u5916\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u7a05\u7387\u7121\u95dc\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u754c\u77e5\u6089\u6709\u95dc\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f8c\u90fd\u5927\u70ba\u8b41\u7136\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u4eba\u806f\u60f3\u8d77\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u53ca\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u9867\u554f\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u7d0d\u74e6\u7f85 (Peter Navarro)\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e4b\u524d\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u70ba\u7f85\u6069\u00b7\u74e6\u62c9(Ron Vara)\u7684\u5c08\u5bb6\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f86\u78ba\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c \u4f46\u5f8c\u4f86\u627f\u8a8d\u9019\u500b\u6240\u8b02\u5c08\u5bb6\u5b50\u865b\u70cf\u6709\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u675c\u64b0\u7684\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62ac\u9ad8\u81ea\u5df1\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u8a8d\u53d7\u6027\u3002\u7d0d\u74e6\u7f85\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u9867\u554f\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u5df2\u6548\u529b\u767d\u5bae\uff0c\u672a\u77e5\u9019\u6b21\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u624b\u7b46\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u770b\u4f86\u9019\u6bb5\u63d2\u66f2\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u53f2\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u7b11\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u7a05\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u77ac\u5373\u5f15\u767c\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u9707\u76ea\u3002\u6309\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u9810\u7b97\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4(Yale Budget Lab)<a href=\"#\u8a3b1\">\u3010\u8a3b1\u3011<\/a>\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u5165 4\u67082\u65e5\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u5ba3\u4f48\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5982\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5169\u6b2110%\u3001\u5c0d\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u768425%\u3001\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u6c7d\u8eca\u548c\u92fc\u6750\u92c1\u6750\u7684 25% \u7b49\u7b49\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u95dc\u7a05\u905422.5%\uff0c\u662f1909\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c \u9ad8\u65bc1930\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u6642\u7684\u300c\u65af\u59c6\u7279-\u970d\u5229\u95dc\u7a05\u6cd5\u300d(Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act)\u3002\u8036\u9b6f\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u4ea6\u4f30\u8a08\u5404\u7a2e\u95dc\u7a05\u5171\u6703\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u77ed\u671f\u7269\u50f9 2.3%\u3001\u5c0e\u81f4\u6bcf\u4f4f\u6236\u5e73\u5747\u6e1b\u5c113800\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u3001\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e2025\u5e74\u7f8e\u570bGDP\u5be6\u8cea\u589e\u9577\u73870.9%\uff0c\u5f8c\u679c\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u9084\u672a\u8003\u616e\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u65e2\u7136\u7d66\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e36\u4f86\u8f03\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u640d\u50b7\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u4ed6\u548c\u5e55\u50da\u4ecd\u6a02\u6b64\u4e0d\u75b2\u3001\u5c64\u5c64\u52a0\u78bc\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u5f9e\u5169\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u770b\u51fa\u7aef\u502a\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u8072\u7a31\u8207\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7121\u95dc\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u7531\u50b3\u7d71\u57fa\u91d1\u6703\u767c\u8868\uff0c \u91dd\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u672c\u571f\u53ca\u5404\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u9580\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31\u70ba\u300c2025\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Project 2025)<a href=\"#\u8a3b2\">\u3010\u8a3b2\u3011<\/a>\uff0c\u5176\u4e8c\u7531\u525b\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u7c73\u862d (Stephen Miran) \u7de8\u5beb\uff0c\u7531\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u667a\u5eab\u767c\u8868\uff0c \u5167\u5bb9\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u5168\u7403\u8cbf\u6613\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2<a href=\"#\u8a3b3\">\u3010\u8a3b3\u3011<\/a>\u3002\u5169\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u73fe\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u51fa\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u9769\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7c73\u862d\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7f8e\u5143\u8cc7\u7522\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e3b\u8981\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u81ea\u5f9e1971\u5e74\u7f8e\u5143\u8207\u9ec3\u91d1\u812b\u920e\u5f8c\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u773e\u592e\u884c\u4ecd\u6301\u6709\u9ec3\u91d1\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u5143\u8cc7\u7522\u7279\u5225\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u50b5\u65e5\u8da8\u6210\u70ba\u5404\u592e\u884c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5132\u5099\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u5c0d\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4ea6\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u6709\u95dc\u9700\u6c42\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u50f9\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u53e6\u65b9\u9762\u589e\u52a0\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5165\u53e3\uff0c\u6253\u64ca\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u3002\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u63d0\u4f9b\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u8ca0\u64d4\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u91cd\u3002 \u7c73\u862d\u8a8d\u70ba\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u61c9\u8a72\u4ed8\u51fa\u90e8\u5206\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u5916\u570b\u5fb5\u6536\u95dc\u7a05\u3001\u53ca\u8b93\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f88\u591a\u8ad6\u8005\u4ee5\u7f8e\u5143\u8cc7\u7522\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u4e3b\u8981\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u5927\u5927\u6709\u5229\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5916\u570b\u8981\u6301\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u5167\u5728\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9808\u5148\u5c07\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u3002\u591a\u5e74\u524d\u6cd5\u570b\u5df2\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u300c\u56c2\u5f35\u7684\u7279\u6b0a\u300d(exorbitant privilege)\u3002\u9019\u88cf\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5143\u5982\u4f55\u6d41\u5411\u5916\u570b\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7c73\u862d\u53ca\u4e00\u4e9b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u597d\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u8981\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u70ba\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\u6216\u6295\u8cc7\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u4fbf\u58d3\u6291\u6d88\u8cbb\u589e\u52a0\u5132\u84c4\uff0c\u5c07\u9918\u4e0b\u7684\u7522\u54c1\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u6709\u8cbf\u6613\u9806\u5dee\u3002\u4f46\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u8207\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u904e\u5ea6\u6d88\u8cbb\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5916\u570b\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\uff0c\u800c\u9006\u5dee\u7531\u767c\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u652f\u4ed8\u7d66\u5916\u570b\u4f86\u586b\u88dc\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u7c73\u862d\u8a8d\u70ba\u9700\u8981\u7528\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u532f\u7387\u4f86\u6539\u8b8a\u7576\u524d\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u4ed6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4e0d\u60f3\u7f8e\u570b\u653e\u68c4\u7f8e\u5143\u4f5c\u70ba\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4eab\u6709\u56c2\u5f35\u7684\u7279\u6b0a\u3002\u524d\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u91d1\u78da\u570b\u5bb6\u82e5\u8981\u767c\u5c55\u66ff\u4ee3\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u4fbf\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u61f2\u7f70\u3002\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u5916\u570b\u4f86\u57cb\u55ae\uff0c\u9019\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ea4\u6613\u6027\u7684\u505a\u4e8b\u65b9\u5f0f\u4e00\u8108\u76f8\u627f\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u591a\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u5747\u6301\u6709\u7f8e\u5143\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c0d\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6240\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u90fd\u52a0\u5fb5\u6240\u8b02\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u8a72\u570b\u548c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u662f\u9806\u5dee\u6216\u9006\u5dee\u3002\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u8cbf\u9806\u5dee\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6301\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7f8e\u5143\u5916\u532f\uff0c\u4fbf\u8981\u9762\u5c0d\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u7a05\u7387\u3002\u9019\u6216\u53ef\u89e3\u91cb\u7f8e\u570b\u8a08\u7b97\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u7a05\u7387\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5426\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5718\u968a\u7684\u672c\u610f\uff0c\u5247\u4e0d\u5f97\u800c\u77e5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u95dc\u7a05\u63d0\u9ad8\u4e86\u5916\u570b\u7522\u54c1\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u50f9\u683c\uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u8cfc\u8cb7\u5916\u570b\u8ca8\uff0c \u9019\u6b63\u662f\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u4e00\u822c\u539f\u610f\uff0c\u65e8\u5728 \u7d66\u570b\u5167\u7f3a\u4e4f\u7af6\u722d\u529b\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u4e00\u4e9b\u751f\u5b58\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u660e\u986f\u6307\u51fa\u95dc\u7a05\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u800c\u975e\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53e3\u4e2d\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\u627f\u64d4\u3002\u4f46\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u96e3\u514d\u6709\u9055\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u610f\u9858\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u7279\u6717\u666e\u53bb\u5e74\u5e95\u9078\u6230\u5f97\u52dd\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u9078\u6c11\u56e0\u901a\u8139\u800c\u4e0d\u6eff\u62dc\u767b\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u540c\u6642\u5c0d\u591a\u570b\u63d0\u9ad8\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u9032\u53e3\u7522\u54c1\u53ca\u672c\u571f\u66ff\u4ee3\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u90fd\u6703\u4e0a\u5347\u3002\u5c31\u9019\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u7c73\u862d\u63d0\u51fa\u4ed6\u7684\u300c\u8ca8\u5e63\u62b5\u6d88\u300d(currency offset)\u770b\u6cd5\u3002\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u5fb5\u6536\u95dc\u7a05\u5f8c\uff0c\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u6703\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u5916\u570b\u7522\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u5c0d\u5916\u570b\u8ca8\u5e63\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u4e5f\u540c\u6642\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u4e8c\u662f\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\u6216\u6703\u4e3b\u52d5\u8cb6\u503c\u4f86\u4fc3\u9032\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u7f8e\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\u8ca8\u5e63\u5728\u570b\u969b\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u56e0\u8cb6\u503c\u800c\u524a\u5f31\uff0c\u7c73\u862d\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e5f\u7b97\u662f\u627f\u64d4\u4e86\u7f8e\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u8ca0\u64d4\u3002\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa2018-19\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u8f2a\u4e2d\u7f8e\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u51fa\u73fe\u901a\u8139\u3002\u67e5\u770b\u6709\u95dc\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u8f2a\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u540c\u7522\u54c1\u5fb5\u6536\u4e86\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u7387\uff0c\u7e3d\u5e73\u5747\u4f4e\u65bc20%\uff0c\u800c\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u532f\u7387\uff0c\u5f9e2018\u5e74\u4e2d\u81f32019\u5e74\u5e95\u8cb6\u503c\u4e86\u7d0410%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u95dc\u7a05\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u8986\u84cb\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u7a05\u7387\u662f\u4e0a\u9762\u63d0\u53ca\u768422.5%\uff0c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u81ea\u7136\u5927\u65bc2018\u5e74\u3002\u7c73\u862d\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u62b5\u6d88\u6548\u61c9\u53ef\u4ee5\u7de9\u548c\u591a\u5c11\u7f8e\u570b\u901a\u8139\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7591\u554f\u3002 \u76ee\u524d\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u624d\u525b\u63ed\u958b\u5e8f\u5e55\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u9084\u5728\u7c4c\u8b00\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\uff0c\u6703\u5426\u5982\u4e2d\u570b\u822c\u4f86\u500b\u5927\u529b\u9084\u64ca\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u672a\u77e5\u3002\u82e5\u4f60\u4f86\u6211\u5f80\u5730\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\u8207\u901a\u8139\u7684\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u8ca8\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u4f86\u62b5\u6d88\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u5176\u4ed6\u8ca8\u5e63\u90fd\u5982\u7c73\u862d\u6240\u8aaa\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u5f8c\u6709\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u90a3\u8868\u793a\u7f8e\u5143\u4ecd\u7136\u9ad8\u4f01\uff0c\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u554f\u984c\u7684\u8d77\u9ede\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u548c\u5c0d\u5916\u6b20\u50b5\uff0c\u5916\u570b\u7e7c\u7e8c\u589e\u6301\u7f8e\u5143\u8cc7\u7522\u4f5c\u5916\u532f\u5132\u5099\u3002\u9019\u4fbf\u5f15\u7533\u5230\u5a92\u4ecb\u6700\u8fd1\u5e38\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u300c\u6d77\u6e56\u838a\u5712\u5354\u8b70\u300d(Mar-a-Lago Accord)\u30021985\u5e74\u7684\u5ee3\u5834\u5354\u8b70\uff0c\u8d77\u56e0\u4ea6\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u3002\u6703\u8b70\u4e2d\u7f8e\u570b\u8feb\u4f7f\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u897f\u6b50\u8af8\u570b\u5c07\u8ca8\u5e63\u5347\u503c\uff0c\u8b8a\u76f8\u8b93\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u7f8e\u570b\u6703\u5411\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u5546\u54c1\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u73fe\u6642\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u5728\u8003\u616e\u91cd\u65bd\u6545\u6280\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u8a31\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5efa\u7acb\u4e00\u500b\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u5fb5\u6536\u95dc\u7a05\u6a5f\u5236\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u820740\u5e74\u524d\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u4e26\u975e\u6e90\u65bc\u5b83\u7684\u76df\u53cb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7d93\u904e\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5316\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u773e\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u90fd\u6709\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u52a0\u5f37\u7ba1\u63a7\uff0c \u7279\u6717\u666e\u6703\u5f15\u5165\u570b\u9632\u4fdd\u8b77\u5098\u70ba\u689d\u4ef6\u3002\u82e5\u8981\u5f97\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u4fdd\u8b77\uff0c\u6709\u95dc\u570b\u5bb6\u6700\u597d\u5c07\u8ca8\u5e63\u514c\u7f8e\u5143\u8cb6\u503c\uff0c 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\u4e0d\u662f\u95dc\u7a05\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c0d\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\uff0c\u548c\u4ed6\u5718\u968a\u7684\u8fa6\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c31\u56e0\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u778e\u6298\u9a30\uff0c\u800c\u6298\u9a30\u624d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a id=\"\u8a3b1\" name=\"\u8a3b1\"><\/a>\u8a3b1\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"\u8a3b2\" name=\"\u8a3b2\"><\/a>\u8a3b2: <a href=\"https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a id=\"\u8a3b3\" name=\"\u8a3b3\"><\/a>\u8a3b3\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">https:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>\u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"no","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"tags":[],"class_list":["post-233364","thought-leadership","type-thought-leadership","status-publish","hentry","leadership-topic-categories-hkej-column-tc","leadership-topic-categories-opinions-and-speeches-tc","in-the-media-topic-categories-faculty-tc","opinion-speeches-categories-faculty-tc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.9 - 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\u4e0d\u662f\u95dc\u7a05\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c0d\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\uff0c\u548c\u4ed6\u5718\u968a\u7684\u8fa6\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c31\u56e0\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u778e\u6298\u9a30\uff0c\u800c\u6298\u9a30\u624d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u3002 \u8a3b1\uff1ahttps:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/ \u8a3b2: https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf \u8a3b3\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n\t<meta 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4\u67082\u65e5\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u5ba3\u4f48\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5982\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5169\u6b2110%\u3001\u5c0d\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u768425%\u3001\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u6c7d\u8eca\u548c\u92fc\u6750\u92c1\u6750\u7684 25% \u7b49\u7b49\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u95dc\u7a05\u905422.5%\uff0c\u662f1909\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c \u9ad8\u65bc1930\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u6642\u7684\u300c\u65af\u59c6\u7279-\u970d\u5229\u95dc\u7a05\u6cd5\u300d(Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act)\u3002\u8036\u9b6f\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u4ea6\u4f30\u8a08\u5404\u7a2e\u95dc\u7a05\u5171\u6703\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u77ed\u671f\u7269\u50f9 2.3%\u3001\u5c0e\u81f4\u6bcf\u4f4f\u6236\u5e73\u5747\u6e1b\u5c113800\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u3001\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e2025\u5e74\u7f8e\u570bGDP\u5be6\u8cea\u589e\u9577\u73870.9%\uff0c\u5f8c\u679c\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u9084\u672a\u8003\u616e\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u65e2\u7136\u7d66\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e36\u4f86\u8f03\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u640d\u50b7\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u4ed6\u548c\u5e55\u50da\u4ecd\u6a02\u6b64\u4e0d\u75b2\u3001\u5c64\u5c64\u52a0\u78bc\uff1f \u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u5f9e\u5169\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u770b\u51fa\u7aef\u502a\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u8072\u7a31\u8207\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7121\u95dc\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u7531\u50b3\u7d71\u57fa\u91d1\u6703\u767c\u8868\uff0c \u91dd\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u672c\u571f\u53ca\u5404\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u9580\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31\u70ba\u300c2025\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Project 2025)\u3010\u8a3b2\u3011\uff0c\u5176\u4e8c\u7531\u525b\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u7c73\u862d (Stephen Miran) \u7de8\u5beb\uff0c\u7531\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u667a\u5eab\u767c\u8868\uff0c \u5167\u5bb9\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u5168\u7403\u8cbf\u6613\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3010\u8a3b3\u3011\u3002\u5169\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u73fe\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u51fa\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u9769\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002 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\u4e0d\u662f\u95dc\u7a05\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c0d\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\uff0c\u548c\u4ed6\u5718\u968a\u7684\u8fa6\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c31\u56e0\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u778e\u6298\u9a30\uff0c\u800c\u6298\u9a30\u624d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u3002 \u8a3b1\uff1ahttps:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/ \u8a3b2: https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf \u8a3b3\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/behind-trumps-tariff-hammer\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-09T03:58:14+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-10-09T04:39:48+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u95dc\u7a05\u5927\u68d2\u7684\u80cc\u5f8c - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u7f8e\u570b\u89e3\u653e\u65e5\u5ba3\u4f48\u4ed6\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5fb5\u6536\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05(reciprocal tariffs)\uff0c\u5b8c\u6574\u5730\u6f14\u7e79\u4e86\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u5192\u5929\u4e0b\u4e4b\u5927\u4e0d\u97d9\u3002\u4ed6\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u9577\u671f\u53d7\u5230\u5916\u570b\u63a0\u596a\u7684\u865b\u5047\u9673\u8ff0\u70ba\u85c9\u53e3\uff0c\u5411\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5fb5\u6536\u984d\u5916\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u6db5\u84cb\u7bc4\u570d\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u5c6c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e4b\u6700\uff0c\u4f46\u8a08\u5283\u537b\u4e0d\u96e2\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e00\u8cab\u8349\u7387\u96a8\u610f\u548c\u524d\u5f8c\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u672c\u8272\u3002\u82e5\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53cd\u6620\u5916\u570b\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u5c0d\u5f85\uff0c\u90a3\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u6fb3\u6d32\u6709\u8cbf\u6613\u9806\u5dee\u53c8\u4ee3\u8868\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u70ba\u4f55\u4ecd\u8981\u5c0d\u6fb3\u6d32\u5fb5\u653610%\u95dc\u7a05\uff1f\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u53ea\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u5546\u54c1\u4e0a\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u670d\u52d9\u696d\u8cbf\u6613\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5247\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6700\u5927\u51fa\u53e3\u570b\uff0c\u53bb\u5e74\u67090.3\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u9806\u5dee\uff0c\u62b5\u6d88\u4e86\u5546\u54c1\u8cbf\u6613\u9006\u5dee1.22\u842c\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u90fd\u6c92\u6709\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6f14\u8aac\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u3002 \u81f3\u65bc\u5c0d\u4e0d\u540c\u570b\u5bb6\u95dc\u7a05\u7a05\u7387\u7684\u5236\u5b9a\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u96a8\u610f\u5984\u70ba\u505a\u6cd5\u7c97\u66b4\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u5c08\u696d\u537b\u6b20\u7f3a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6839\u64da\uff0c\u8aac\u662f\u5148\u8a08\u7b97\u5916\u570b\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u95dc\u7a05\u7387\uff0c\u4f46\u5185\u5bb9\u537b\u5b8c\u5168\u548c\u5916\u570b\u95dc\u7a05\u7a05\u7387\u7121\u95dc\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u754c\u77e5\u6089\u6709\u95dc\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u5f0f\u5f8c\u90fd\u5927\u70ba\u8b41\u7136\u3002\u9019\u4f7f\u4eba\u806f\u60f3\u8d77\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u53ca\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u9867\u554f\u5f7c\u5f97\u00b7\u7d0d\u74e6\u7f85 (Peter Navarro)\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e4b\u524d\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u4e2d\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u4f4d\u540d\u70ba\u7f85\u6069\u00b7\u74e6\u62c9(Ron Vara)\u7684\u5c08\u5bb6\u6240\u8ff0\uff0c\u4f86\u78ba\u7acb\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c \u4f46\u5f8c\u4f86\u627f\u8a8d\u9019\u500b\u6240\u8b02\u5c08\u5bb6\u5b50\u865b\u70cf\u6709\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u81ea\u5df1\u675c\u64b0\u7684\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u62ac\u9ad8\u81ea\u5df1\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u8a8d\u53d7\u6027\u3002\u7d0d\u74e6\u7f85\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4fe1\u4efb\u7684\u9867\u554f\uff0c\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e1.0\u6642\u5df2\u6548\u529b\u767d\u5bae\uff0c\u672a\u77e5\u9019\u6b21\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u662f\u5426\u4e5f\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u624b\u7b46\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u770b\u4f86\u9019\u6bb5\u63d2\u66f2\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u70ba\u5c07\u4f86\u7d93\u6fdf\u53f2\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u7b11\u8a71\u3002 \u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u7a05\u7387\u9ad8\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u77ac\u5373\u5f15\u767c\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u9707\u76ea\u3002\u6309\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u9810\u7b97\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4(Yale Budget Lab)\u3010\u8a3b1\u3011\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u5728\u52a0\u5165 4\u67082\u65e5\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u4e4b\u524d\u5ba3\u4f48\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5982\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5169\u6b2110%\u3001\u5c0d\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u768425%\u3001\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u6c7d\u8eca\u548c\u92fc\u6750\u92c1\u6750\u7684 25% \u7b49\u7b49\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6709\u6548\u95dc\u7a05\u905422.5%\uff0c\u662f1909\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c \u9ad8\u65bc1930\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u5927\u856d\u689d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u6642\u7684\u300c\u65af\u59c6\u7279-\u970d\u5229\u95dc\u7a05\u6cd5\u300d(Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act)\u3002\u8036\u9b6f\u7684\u9810\u7b97\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u4ea6\u4f30\u8a08\u5404\u7a2e\u95dc\u7a05\u5171\u6703\u63a8\u9ad8\u7f8e\u570b\u77ed\u671f\u7269\u50f9 2.3%\u3001\u5c0e\u81f4\u6bcf\u4f4f\u6236\u5e73\u5747\u6e1b\u5c113800\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u3001\u53ca\u964d\u4f4e2025\u5e74\u7f8e\u570bGDP\u5be6\u8cea\u589e\u9577\u73870.9%\uff0c\u5f8c\u679c\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u9084\u672a\u8003\u616e\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u53cd\u5236\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u65e2\u7136\u7d66\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5e36\u4f86\u8f03\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u640d\u50b7\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u4ed6\u548c\u5e55\u50da\u4ecd\u6a02\u6b64\u4e0d\u75b2\u3001\u5c64\u5c64\u52a0\u78bc\uff1f \u7279\u6717\u666e2.0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u5f9e\u5169\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u770b\u51fa\u7aef\u502a\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u8072\u7a31\u8207\u4ed6\u500b\u4eba\u7121\u95dc\u3002\u5176\u4e00\u7531\u50b3\u7d71\u57fa\u91d1\u6703\u767c\u8868\uff0c \u91dd\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u672c\u571f\u53ca\u5404\u653f\u5e9c\u90e8\u9580\uff0c\u7c21\u7a31\u70ba\u300c2025\u8a08\u5283\u300d(Project 2025)\u3010\u8a3b2\u3011\uff0c\u5176\u4e8c\u7531\u525b\u4e0a\u4efb\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u53f2\u8482\u82ac\u00b7\u7c73\u862d (Stephen Miran) \u7de8\u5beb\uff0c\u7531\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u667a\u5eab\u767c\u8868\uff0c \u5167\u5bb9\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u5168\u7403\u8cbf\u6613\u91d1\u878d\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3010\u8a3b3\u3011\u3002\u5169\u8005\u7684\u5171\u540c\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u5c0d\u73fe\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u51fa\u5927\u5e45\u6539\u9769\u7684\u65b9\u6848\u3002 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\u4e0d\u662f\u95dc\u7a05\u672c\u8eab\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c0d\u95dc\u7a05\u548c\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\uff0c\u548c\u4ed6\u5718\u968a\u7684\u8fa6\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u5730\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c31\u56e0\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u778e\u6298\u9a30\uff0c\u800c\u6298\u9a30\u624d\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u3002 \u8a3b1\uff1ahttps:\/\/budgetlab.yale.edu\/ \u8a3b2: https:\/\/static.project2025.org\/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf \u8a3b3\uff1ahttps:\/\/www.hudsonbaycapital.com\/documents\/FG\/hudsonbay\/research\/638199_A_Users_Guide_to_Restructuring_the_Global_Trading_System.pdf \u9678\u708e\u8f1d\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u69ae\u8b7d\u526f\u6559\u6388 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e5d\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09","inLanguage":"zh-HK","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/behind-trumps-tariff-hammer\/#breadcrumblist"},"datePublished":"2025-04-09T11:58:14+08:00","dateModified":"2025-10-09T12:39:48+08:00"},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/","name":"HKU Business School","inLanguage":"zh-HK","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/#organization"}}]},"og:locale":"en_US","og:site_name":"HKU Business School -","og:type":"article","og:title":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u95dc\u7a05\u5927\u68d2\u7684\u80cc\u5f8c - HKU Business School","og:description":"\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u4e0a\u661f\u671f\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u7f8e\u570b\u89e3\u653e\u65e5\u5ba3\u4f48\u4ed6\u5c0d\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5fb5\u6536\u7684\u6240\u8b02\u5c0d\u61c9\u95dc\u7a05(reciprocal 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