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\u7f8e\u570b\u63d0\u51fa\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5c07\u8cbf\u6613\u5c0d\u6297\u5f9e\u96d9\u908a\u5347\u7d1a\u70ba\u591a\u908a\u3002\u9762\u5c0d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7121\u5dee\u5225\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5404\u8de8\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u6b63\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u5be9\u8996\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u683c\u5c40\u53ca\u5176\u6295\u8cc7\u6230\u7565\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0d\u50c5\u6703\u8003\u616e\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5fb5\u6536\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u9084\u6703\u7d9c\u5408\u8003\u616e\u8a72\u570b\u5c0d\u5176\u7522\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u88dc\u8cbc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4efb\u4f55\u7f8e\u65b9\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u662f\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u76ca\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u5229\u76ca\u2014\u70ba\u6838\u5fc3\u800c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u898f\u5247\u3002\u5be6\u65bd\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u7121\u7591\u6703\u906d\u5230\u5404\u570b\u53cd\u5236\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u50c5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9762\u81e8\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002 \u6b77\u53f2\u4e0d\u6703\u91cd\u6f14\uff0c\u4f46\u7e3d\u662f\u6703\u9a5a\u4eba\u7684\u76f8\u4f3c\u30021930\u5e74\u7684\u8457\u540d\u7684\u65af\u59c6\u7279-\u970d\u5229\u95dc\u7a05\u6cd5\u6848\uff08The Smoot-Hawley Tariff 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\u900f\u904e\u6df1\u5316\u570b\u969b\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u50c5\u80fd\u5920\u589e\u5f37\u81ea\u8eab\u5728\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e2d\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\uff0c\u9084\u80fd\u70ba\u69cb\u5efa\u66f4\u52a0\u958b\u653e\u3001\u591a\u5143\u3001\u4e92\u60e0\u5171\u8d0f\u7684\u570b\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u79e9\u5e8f\u4f5c\u51fa\u91cd\u8981\u8ca2\u737b\u3002 \u674e\u6676\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u5de5\u5546\u7ba1\u7406\u5b78\u5b78\u58eb\uff08\u570b\u969b\u5546\u696d\u53ca\u74b0\u7403\u7ba1\u7406\uff09\u8ab2\u7a0b\u526f\u7e3d\u76e3 \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u56db\u6708\u4e8c\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/tariff-war-intensifies-navigating-challenges-and-opportunities-in-a-changing-global-economy\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-02T02:16:16+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-04-02T02:17:49+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u95dc\u7a05\u6230\u5347\u7d1a\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u65b0\u683c\u5c40\u4e0b\u7684\u6311\u6230\u8207\u6a5f\u9047 - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"\u81ea\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff08Donald Trump\uff09\u4e8c\u6b21\u57f7\u653f\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u65b0\u4e00\u8f2a\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u5df2\u5168\u9762\u5c55\u958b\u3002\u5f9e2025\u5e743\u6708\u8d77\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e0d\u50c5\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u92fc\u9435\u548c\u92c1\u7523\u54c1\u5fb5\u653625%\u7684\u9032\u53e3\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u9084\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u3001\u58a8\u897f\u54e5\u7b49\u4e3b\u8981\u8cbf\u6613\u5925\u4f34\u5be6\u65bd\u7279\u5b9a\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5287\u5168\u7403\u8cbf\u6613\u7dca\u5f35\u5c40\u52e2\u3002\u9762\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u65e5\u76ca\u5f37\u786c\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6b50\u76df\u3001\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u7b49\u900f\u904e\u8a34\u8a1f\u3001\u8ac7\u5224\u548c\u53cd\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u8a66\u5716\u7de9\u89e3\u95dc\u7a05\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e26\u672a\u6b62\u6b65\u65bc\u6b64\u30023\u670826\u65e5\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5ba3\u4f48\u5f9e4\u67082 \u65e5\u8d77\u5c0d\u6240\u6709\u9032\u53e3\u5230\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6c7d\u8eca\u52a0\u5fb525%\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u4e26\u8a08\u5283\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u7d44\u88dd\u6c7d\u8eca\u4e2d\u7684\u975e\u7f8e\u570b\u96f6\u90e8\u4ef6\u5fb5\u6536\u540c\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u91dd\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u7522\u54c1\u7684 \u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\uff08reciprocal tariffs\uff09\u4ea6\u540c\u6b65\u5be6\u65bd\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u64f4\u5927\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\u7684\u898f\u6a21\u3002 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\u7f8e\u570b\u63d0\u51fa\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5c07\u8cbf\u6613\u5c0d\u6297\u5f9e\u96d9\u908a\u5347\u7d1a\u70ba\u591a\u908a\u3002\u9762\u5c0d\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7121\u5dee\u5225\u7684\u95dc\u7a05\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u5404\u8de8\u570b\u4f01\u696d\u6b63\u5728\u91cd\u65b0\u5be9\u8996\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u683c\u5c40\u53ca\u5176\u6295\u8cc7\u6230\u7565\u3002\u65b0\u7684\u300c\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\u300d\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0d\u50c5\u6703\u8003\u616e\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u5c0d\u7f8e\u5fb5\u6536\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u9084\u6703\u7d9c\u5408\u8003\u616e\u8a72\u570b\u5c0d\u5176\u7522\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u88dc\u8cbc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4efb\u4f55\u7f8e\u65b9\u8a8d\u70ba\u53ef\u80fd\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u53ef\u898b\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u662f\u4ee5\u7f8e\u570b\u5229\u76ca\u2014\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u5229\u76ca\u2014\u70ba\u6838\u5fc3\u800c\u91cd\u65b0\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7684\u8cbf\u6613\u898f\u5247\u3002\u5be6\u65bd\u5c0d\u7b49\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u7121\u7591\u6703\u906d\u5230\u5404\u570b\u53cd\u5236\u3002\u9019\u4e0d\u50c5\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u4f7f\u5f97\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9762\u81e8\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u6311\u6230\u3002 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