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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u6703\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u55ae\u4ee5\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8ca1\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u6703\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u9577\u52d5\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599<\/p>\n<p>Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#8217;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb\u00a0\u00a0 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\u81f34%\uff0c\u53cd\u89c0\u5357\u97d3\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u53f0\u7063\u53ca\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u537b\u90544%\u81f36%\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u75ab\u5f8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u4e26\u5931\u53bb\u767c\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u570b\u5167\u57ce\u5e02\u5192\u8d77\uff0c\u66f4\u8fc5\u901f\u52d5\u6416\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u7279\u5340\u7684\u751f\u7522\u6027\u6295\u8cc7\u3001\u6548\uf961\u53ca\u4eba\uf98a\u8cc7\u6e90\u8cea\u7d20\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u96e3\u4ee5\uf9a8\u4eba\uf914\u89c0\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4f9b\u6c42\u932f\u914d\uff0c\u9019\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u589e\u9577\uf961\u6b63\u9010\u6f38\u4e0b\ufa09\u3002\u9019\u5fc5\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca1\u653f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u7a69\u5065\u6027\uff08revenue buoyancy\uff09\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u958b\u652f\u65b9\u9762\u51fa\u73fe\u540d\u7fa9\u525b\u6027\uff08nominal rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u6703\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u55ae\u4ee5\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8ca1\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u6703\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u9577\u52d5\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#039;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u9109\u8b70\u5c40\u7576\u7136\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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\u81f34%\uff0c\u53cd\u89c0\u5357\u97d3\u3001\u4e2d\u570b\u53f0\u7063\u53ca\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u7684\u589e\u5e45\u537b\u90544%\u81f36%\u3002 \u9999\u6e2f\u7d93\u6fdf\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\u4f4e\u8ff7\uff0c\u75ab\u5f8c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u7de9\u6162\uff0c\u4e26\u5931\u53bb\u767c\u5c55\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u570b\u5167\u57ce\u5e02\u5192\u8d77\uff0c\u66f4\u8fc5\u901f\u52d5\u6416\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u81ea\u4fe1\u3002\u7279\u5340\u7684\u751f\u7522\u6027\u6295\u8cc7\u3001\u6548\uf961\u53ca\u4eba\uf98a\u8cc7\u6e90\u8cea\u7d20\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u96e3\u4ee5\uf9a8\u4eba\uf914\u89c0\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u4f9b\u6c42\u932f\u914d\uff0c\u9019\u5ea7\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u6f5b\u5728\u589e\u9577\uf961\u6b63\u9010\u6f38\u4e0b\ufa09\u3002\u9019\u5fc5\u7136\u5f71\u97ff\u653f\u5e9c\u8ca1\u653f\u6536\u5165\u7684\u7a69\u5065\u6027\uff08revenue buoyancy\uff09\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u958b\u652f\u65b9\u9762\u51fa\u73fe\u540d\u7fa9\u525b\u6027\uff08nominal rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u6703\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u55ae\u4ee5\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8ca1\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u6703\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u9577\u52d5\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#039;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u9109\u8b70\u5c40\u7576\u7136\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 \u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u9644\u5c6c\u5b78\u9662\u8b1b\u5e2b \uff08\u672c\u6587\u540c\u6642\u65bc\u4e8c\u96f6\u4e8c\u4e94\u5e74\u4e8c\u6708\u4e94\u65e5\u8f09\u65bc\u300a\u4fe1\u5831\u300b\u300c\u9f8d\u864e\u5c71\u4e0b\u300d\u5c08\u6b04\uff09\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hkubs.hku.hk\/tc\/research\/thought-leadership\/hkej-column\/tackling-fiscal-deficit-the-pros-and-cons-of-government-bonds\/\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-02-06T02:51:04+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-02-06T03:00:34+00:00\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"\u8ca1\u8d64\u7576\u52d9\u6025 \u767c\u50b5\u96d9\u5203\u528d - HKU Business School\" \/>\n\t\t<meta name=\"twitter:description\" 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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u6703\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u55ae\u4ee5\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8ca1\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u6703\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u9577\u52d5\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong&#039;s Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u9109\u8b70\u5c40\u7576\u7136\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u6703\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u55ae\u4ee5\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8ca1\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u6703\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u9577\u52d5\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong's Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u9109\u8b70\u5c40\u7576\u7136\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u6703\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u55ae\u4ee5\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8ca1\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u6703\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u9577\u52d5\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong's Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u9109\u8b70\u5c40\u7576\u7136\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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rigidity\uff09\uff0c\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u4fbf\u6703\uf9b9\u5316\uff0c\u55ae\u4ee5\u524a\u6e1b\u958b\u652f\u3001\u589e\u52a0\u6536\u5165\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u6cd5\uf92d\u5e73\u8861\u8ca1\u8d64\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u4ee5\u594f\u6548\u3002\u9664\u975e\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6548\uf961\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u8ca1\u653f\u8d64\u5b57\u53ea\u6703\u63ee\u4e4b\u4e0d\u53bb\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u81f4\uf9b9\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u4ee4\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u6240\u5275\u65b0\uff0c\u91cd\uf973\u589e\u9577\u52d5\uf98a\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u95dc\u9375\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599 Jiming Ha and Cynthia Leung. \u201cEstimating Hong Kong's Output Gap and Its Impact on Inflation.\u201d HKMA Research Memorandum, November 2001. \u8b1d\u570b\u751f\u535a\u58eb \u6e2f\u5927\u7d93\u7ba1\u5b78\u9662\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u9996\u5e2d\u8b1b\u5e2b\u3001\u65b0\u754c\u9109\u8b70\u5c40\u7576\u7136\u57f7\u884c\u59d4\u54e1 \u4f55\u654f\u6dd9 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